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Saturday, March 2, 2024

UEFA EURO 2024 simulations (March 2024)

In 2024 five of the six confederations have scheduled their continental championship for national teams. Here's the fifth and last in this series of simulation reports: Europe.


The UEFA EURO 2024 will be hosted by Germany. It's a 24-team tournament in the now known format with the four best group numbers three also progressing to the first knock-out round, the round of 16.

Qualified already are 21 teams (the host plus the group numbers one and two of ten qualification groups). The final 3 berths are determined this March in three play-off paths, in two one-off semi finals and a final per path. Compared to the EURO 2020 qualification play-offs league D no longer has it's own path, which I consider a logical thing to do.


Participants in these play-offs qualified via their performance in the UEFA Nations League 2022/23 group stage. Composition of each path and the hosts for the finals in each path were drawn in November last year:


path A

Poland - Estonia

Wales - Finland

final hosted in Wales or Finland


path B

Israel - Iceland

Bosnia-Herzegovina - Ukraine

final hosted in Bosnia-Herzegovina or Ukraine (Wroclaw, Poland)


path C

Georgia - Luxembourg

Greece - Kazakhstan

final hosted in Georgia or Luxembourg



The UEFA EURO 2024 kicks off on Friday June 14th and lasts until the final on Sunday July 14th.


The complete tournament schedule plus all relevant matches in the upcoming March window are simulated: 

- already scheduled friendlies with UEFA teams involved

- the three qualification play-off paths.

As Russia is also banned from participating in the upcoming UNL 2024/25 with a group stage in Autumn 2024, this March also one two-legged relegation play-off is played between the two worst league C fourth place finishers, Lithuania and Gibraltar, to decide which team relegates to league D in the UNL 2024/25.


Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy.


First, the win probabilities for the semi finals and the final in the qualification play-offs plus the UNL league C relegation play-off:


team

win SF

Q

Ukraine

73,99

48,58

Wales

71,69

46,14

Georgia

76,82

43,44

Greece

86,08

42,65

Poland

92,53

36,14

Israel

76,28

35,26

Finland

28,31

16,90

Luxembourg

23,18

10,79

Iceland

23,72

9,02

Bosnia-Herzegovina

26,01

7,14

Kazakhstan

13,92

3,12

Estonia

7,47

0,82



team

win PO

Lithuania

86,38

Gibraltar

13,62



Then the group stage of the final tournament, with teams ordered by ascending average group position in the last column. The group stage draw was already in December last year:


group A

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Germany

52,66

26,63

14,48

6,23

1,74

Hungary

19,72

27,58

25,95

26,75

2,60

Switzerland

13,74

23,25

31,98

31,03

2,80

Scotland

13,88

22,54

27,59

35,99

2,86

group B

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Spain

50,29

28,73

17,64

3,34

1,74

Croatia

26,75

35,72

31,05

6,48

2,17

Italy

22,02

31,95

38,81

7,22

2,31

Albania

0,94

3,60

12,50

82,96

3,77

group C

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

England

61,84

24,11

9,77

4,28

1,56

Denmark

19,09

31,97

29,13

19,81

2,50

Serbia

11,18

26,32

32,89

29,61

2,81

Slovenia

7,89

17,60

28,21

46,30

3,13

group D

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

France

68,65

22,04

7,24

2,07

1,43

Netherlands

21,91

42,55

26,09

9,45

2,23

Austria

7,22

24,02

35,34

33,42

2,95

Wales

1,01

5,46

14,69

24,98

Poland

0,96

4,41

11,39

19,38

Finland

0,25

1,52

5,17

9,96

Estonia

0,00

0,00

0,08

0,74

group E

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Belgium

67,26

23,92

6,94

1,88

1,43

Romania

7,89

25,69

32,88

33,54

2,92

Slovakia

6,48

20,97

31,88

40,67

3,07

Ukraine

15,73

18,26

10,49

4,10

Israel

2,18

8,61

12,27

12,20

Bosnia-Herzegovina

0,24

1,05

2,19

3,66

Iceland

0,22

1,50

3,35

3,95

group F

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Portugal

70,10

20,80

6,96

2,14

1,41

Turkey

12,07

32,41

28,70

26,82

2,70

Czech Republic

10,76

26,27

32,11

30,86

2,83

Greece

4,45

11,49

14,00

12,71

Georgia

2,35

7,57

14,50

19,02

Luxembourg

0,24

1,27

2,89

6,39

Kazakhstan

0,03

0,19

0,84

2,06



Then the knock-out stage, starting with the round of 16. Teams can qualify for this round as group number one or two (q_nr1_2) or as one of the best four group numbers three (q_nr3). The teams are ordered by their summed qualification probability for this round (Q_tot):


team

q_nr1_2

q_nr3

Q_tot

Belgium

91,18

6,02

97,20

Portugal

90,90

6,28

97,18

France

90,69

6,18

96,87

England

85,95

8,57

94,52

Spain

79,02

14,62

93,64

Germany

79,29

12,13

91,42

Croatia

62,47

23,97

86,44

Netherlands

64,46

20,64

85,10

Italy

53,97

30,71

84,68

Denmark

51,06

17,56

68,62

Hungary

47,30

17,50

64,80

Turkey

44,48

18,02

62,50

Serbia

37,50

23,30

60,80

Czech Republic

37,03

23,06

60,09

Scotland

36,42

20,39

56,81

Switzerland

36,99

19,22

56,21

Austria

31,24

24,40

55,64

Romania

33,58

17,57

51,15

Slovakia

27,45

21,68

49,13

Slovenia

25,49

16,79

42,28

Ukraine

33,99

7,36

41,35

Greece

15,94

7,65

23,59

Israel

10,79

6,09

16,88

Georgia

9,92

6,80

16,72

Wales

6,47

5,90

12,37

Albania

4,54

7,52

12,06

Poland

5,37

4,79

10,16

Finland

1,77

1,76

3,53

Iceland

1,72

1,42

3,14

Luxembourg

1,51

0,86

2,37

Bosnia-Herzegovina

1,29

0,87

2,16

Kazakhstan

0,22

0,35

0,57

Estonia

0,00

0,02

0,02



The probability to qualify for the quarter finals. In square brackets this chance, given qualification for the round of 16.


team

QF

France

79,74

[82,32]

Spain

67,89

[72,50]

England

66,50

[70,36]

Portugal

63,26

[65,10]

Belgium

60,78

[62,53]

Germany

56,70

[62,02]

Netherlands

56,57

[66,47]

Croatia

52,92

[61,22]

Italy

48,73

[57,55]

Denmark

29,46

[42,93]

Austria

26,69

[47,97]

Hungary

25,11

[38,75]

Serbia

22,37

[36,79]

Scotland

19,73

[34,73]

Switzerland

19,72

[35,08]

Ukraine

18,00

[43,53]

Czech Republic

14,26

[23,73]

Turkey

14,06

[22,50]

Slovenia

12,91

[30,53]

Romania

11,09

[21,68]

Slovakia

9,74

[19,82]

Greece

5,45

[23,10]

Wales

4,41

[35,65]

Poland

3,75

[36,91]

Israel

2,91

[17,24]

Albania

2,67

[22,14]

Georgia

2,57

[15,37]

Finland

1,11

[31,44]

Iceland

0,31

[09,87]

Bosnia-Herzegovina

0,30

[13,89]

Luxembourg

0,25

[10,55]

Kazakhstan

0,04

[07,02]

Estonia

0,00

[00,00]



The probability to qualify for the semi finals. In square brackets this chance, given qualification for the quarter finals.


team

SF

France

56,14

[70,40]

Spain

40,38

[59,48]

Portugal

39,59

[62,58]

England

38,12

[57,32]

Germany

32,58

[57,46]

Netherlands

29,97

[52,98]

Belgium

27,74

[45,64]

Croatia

26,72

[50,49]

Italy

24,27

[49,81]

Austria

11,11

[41,63]

Denmark

10,92

[37,07]

Hungary

9,88

[39,35]

Serbia

7,74

[34,60]

Scotland

7,52

[38,11]

Switzerland

6,87

[34,84]

Ukraine

6,66

[37,00]

Turkey

4,68

[33,29]

Czech Republic

4,46

[31,28]

Slovenia

3,69

[28,58]

Romania

2,52

[22,72]

Slovakia

2,04

[20,94]

Greece

1,75

[32,11]

Wales

1,27

[28,80]

Poland

1,14

[30,40]

Georgia

0,69

[00,00]

Albania

0,61

[00,00]

Israel

0,58

[00,00]

Finland

0,21

[00,00]

Bosnia-Herzegovina

0,06

[00,00]

Luxembourg

0,05

[00,00]

Iceland

0,04

[00,00]

Kazakhstan

0,00

[00,00]

Estonia

0,00

[00,00]



The probability to qualify for the final. In square brackets this chance, given qualification for the semi finals.


team

Final

France

37,26

[66,37]

Portugal

22,74

[57,44]

Spain

21,95

[54,36]

England

19,62

[51,47]

Germany

17,93

[55,03]

Belgium

14,79

[53,32]

Netherlands

14,52

[48,45]

Croatia

12,37

[46,29]

Italy

10,98

[45,24]

Austria

4,28

[38,52]

Denmark

3,79

[34,71]

Hungary

3,57

[36,13]

Serbia

2,66

[34,37]

Scotland

2,56

[34,04]

Ukraine

2,52

[37,84]

Switzerland

2,26

[32,90]

Turkey

1,56

[33,33]

Czech Republic

1,35

[30,27]

Slovenia

0,88

[23,85]

Romania

0,56

[22,22]

Greece

0,42

[24,00]

Slovakia

0,41

[20,10]

Poland

0,32

[28,07]

Wales

0,31

[24,41]

Albania

0,13

[21,31]

Georgia

0,12

[17,39]

Israel

0,07

[12,07]

Finland

0,06

[28,57]

Bosnia-Herzegovina

0,01

[16,67]

Luxembourg

0,00

[00,00]

Iceland

0,00

[00,00]

Kazakhstan

0,00

[00,00]

Estonia

0,00

[00,00]



The probability to win the UEFA EURO 2024. In square brackets this chance, given qualification for the final.


team

Winner

France

23,77

[63,79]

Portugal

11,65

[51,23]

Spain

11,25

[51,25]

England

10,67

[54,38]

Germany

9,41

[52,48]

Belgium

7,26

[49,09]

Netherlands

6,44

[44,35]

Croatia

5,85

[47,29]

Italy

4,74

[43,17]

Austria

1,30

[30,37]

Denmark

1,26

[33,25]

Hungary

1,08

[30,25]

Ukraine

1,08

[42,86]

Switzerland

0,87

[38,50]

Serbia

0,86

[32,33]

Scotland

0,86

[33,59]

Turkey

0,44

[28,21]

Czech Republic

0,43

[31,85]

Slovenia

0,19

[21,59]

Greece

0,16

[38,10]

Wales

0,10

[32,26]

Poland

0,10

[31,25]

Romania

0,10

[17,86]

Slovakia

0,09

[21,95]

Georgia

0,03

[25,00]

Albania

0,01

[07,69]

Israel

0,00

[00,00]

Finland

0,00

[00,00]

Bosnia-Herzegovina

0,00

[00,00]

Luxembourg

0,00

[00,00]

Iceland

0,00

[00,00]

Kazakhstan

0,00

[00,00]

Estonia

0,00

[00,00]



About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

2 comments:

  1. Is it possible that two or more countries will have the same FIFA rankings?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ranking points rounded on two decimals, sure. But the points are in principle unrounded, so two exact the same unrounded ranking point tallies, and therefore the resulting same ranking position, for two teams seems hard to imagine.

      Delete