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Saturday, May 25, 2024

FIFA ranking: June 2024 probable ranking

Here is the probable June 2024 ranking, to be published on Thursday June 20th. In the upcoming June window matches will be played for:

- match days 5 and 6 (to a finish) in the groups for AFC World Cup 2026 qualification stage 2;

- match days 1 and 2 in the groups for CONCACAF World Cup 2026 qualification stage 2;

- match days 3 and 4 in the groups for CAF World Cup 2026 qualification stage 1;

- lots of preparatory friendlies for the continental finals starting mid June: EURO, Copa America and OFC Nations Cup.


There are a few uncertainties around this ranking.


For instance the news was recently published that Equatorial Guinea has fielded the ineligible player Emilio Nsue Lopez in their first two WC-qualifiers in November last year. Both matches -against Namibia at home on the 15th (1:0 win) and against Liberia away on the 20th (0:1 win)- are awarded 3:0 wins to the opponent. Equatorial Guinea can still appeal this decision. I haven't applied any corrections yet for these two awarded matches in this probable ranking.

By the way, 'fun fact' is that this is not the first time Equatorial Guinea has been punished for such an offence. It seems they haven't learned anything from their qualification campaign for the World Cup 2014 where they fielded exactly the same ineligible player (!) in two group matches against Cape Verde Islands and were punished also with two 0:3 losses.


Another uncertainty concerns the correct deadline to be used for this June ranking. Normally the deadline to incorporate played matches in the ranking calculation is the Sunday before the Thursday the ranking is published. In this case that would be Sunday June 16th. But as this date falls in the midst of the first group stage match day of the EURO 2024 (which starts on Friday the 14th) I expect the deadline to be moved backwards to Tuesday June 11th, the final day of the June window.


And then we have a third uncertainty: this June window (3 - 11 June) is officially designated to be 'for all confederations except UEFA' in the FIFA Men's International Match Calender. I assume that any friendly played in this window with UEFA-teams participating in it, is normally calculated though and thus using an I-factor of 10.


This preview is calculated with elo-predicted results for all 192 currently played and scheduled and according to my method included matches, out of a total of 197 currently played and scheduled matches. See the probable results for a list of which scheduled matches are currently included.


pos Jun.

team

pts Jun.

+/- pos

+/- pts

1

Argentina

1860,14

0

2,14

2

France

1843,50

0

2,91

3

Belgium

1797,97

0

2,74

4

England

1797,88

0

2,98

5

Brazil

1792,40

0

3,75

6

Portugal

1756,91

0

8,80

7

Netherlands

1746,61

0

4,32

8

Spain

1729,92

0

2,42

9

Italy

1729,35

0

4,75

10

Croatia

1718,30

0

-2,77

11

USA

1680,97

0

-0,16

12

Morocco

1669,43

1

8,01

13

Uruguay

1665,92

2

6,53

14

Colombia

1664,44

-2

0,16

15

Mexico

1652,36

-1

-8,75

16

Germany

1651,74

0

7,53

17

Senegal

1636,01

0

11,28

18

Japan

1629,20

0

7,32

19

Iran

1623,66

1

9,70

20

Switzerland

1617,24

-1

0,83

21

Denmark

1610,76

0

8,04

22

Korea Republic

1573,10

1

9,11

23

Australia

1571,50

1

7,57

24

Ukraine

1565,42

-2

-3,44

25

Austria

1560,03

0

5,17

26

Hungary

1538,92

0

6,72

27

Nigeria

1535,99

3

15,72

28

Poland

1531,44

0

-0,05

29

Wales

1531,35

0

-0,03

30

Sweden

1527,19

-3

-4,49

31

Peru

1520,01

1

4,19

32

Qatar

1516,37

2

8,43

33

Ecuador

1516,09

-2

-2,14

34

Egypt

1515,04

3

15,32

35

Cote d'Ivoire

1512,40

3

13,60

36

Serbia

1509,76

-3

-4,44

37

Tunisia

1507,35

4

14,23

38

Russia

1506,58

-3

2,56

39

Czech Republic

1506,23

-3

4,76

40

Scotland

1502,18

-1

4,72

41

Algeria

1498,63

2

15,92

42

Chile

1496,09

0

4,38

43

Mali

1493,78

1

15,88

44

Turkey

1493,38

-4

-2,56

45

Panama

1482,06

0

6,44

46

Romania

1472,33

0

4,16

47

Norway

1466,48

0

-1,03

48

Slovakia

1462,81

0

1,26

49

Canada

1456,75

0

-4,41

50

Saudi Arabia

1456,30

3

12,77

51

Greece

1455,99

-1

-1,90

52

Costa Rica

1451,65

0

6,27

53

Cameroon

1446,22

-2

-6,37

54

Jamaica

1442,82

1

7,49

55

Venezuela

1442,29

-1

0

56

Slovenia

1434,70

1

6,86

57

Iraq

1433,08

1

12,61

58

Paraguay

1422,16

-2

-8,57

59

South Africa

1404,63

0

-3,04

60

Republic of Ireland

1393,97

0

-5,77

61

Cape Verde Islands

1392,78

4

9,34

62

Congo DR

1388,94

1

0,68

63

Finland

1388,40

-2

-6,04

64

Burkina Faso

1387,66

-2

-2,72

65

Uzbekistan

1384,91

-1

-1,67

66

United Arab Emirates

1381,63

1

15,18

67

Albania

1379,40

-1

4,30

68

Ghana

1356,75

0

-2,02

69

Montenegro

1350,02

1

-1,70

70

Jordan

1349,13

1

-1,08

71

North Macedonia

1348,63

-2

-5,56

72

Iceland

1343,53

0

-3,29

73

Northern Ireland

1341,33

0

0,28

74

Oman

1338,96

3

15,73

75

Georgia

1333,91

0

0,15

76

Bosnia-Herzegovina

1332,33

-2

-3,27

77

Guinea

1325,36

-1

0,71

78

El Salvador

1315,92

3

10,90

79

Honduras

1313,05

3

11,13

80

Israel

1312,62

-2

1,23

81

Equatorial Guinea

1308,74

-2

0,71

82

Bahrain

1302,57

-2

-4,96

83

Gabon

1288,45

1

1,12

84

Bulgaria

1285,54

-1

-7,05

85

Bolivia

1283,89

0

0

86

Zambia

1283,39

0

5,13

87

China PR

1279,78

1

4,56

88

Luxembourg

1275,70

-1

-2,24

89

Haiti

1274,46

1

11,96

90

Curacao

1272,71

1

10,23

91

Syria

1271,29

-2

4,77

92

Angola

1248,68

2

12,92

93

Palestine

1243,54

0

4,88

94

Uganda

1243,46

-2

1,31

95

Trinidad and Tobago

1234,86

3

14,21

96

Armenia

1225,79

-1

-3,39

97

Belarus

1219,78

-1

-6,76

98

Benin

1217,12

-1

-8,56

99

Kyrgyzstan

1213,30

1

-0,30

100

Tajikistan

1212,41

-1

-4,35

101

Thailand

1206,32

0

-2,61

102

Kazakhstan

1203,58

1

-0,06

103

Kosovo

1203,16

-1

-2,69

104

Mauritania

1202,34

1

6,84

105

Guatemala

1201,62

3

13,35

106

New Zealand

1197,68

-2

0

107

Kenya

1195,24

0

4,00

108

Namibia

1194,86

-2

2,73

109

Madagascar

1191,62

0

5,76

110

Mozambique

1180,26

0

-4,23

111

Congo

1175,17

0

-4,63

112

Azerbaijan

1174,93

0

-2,90

113

Togo

1170,69

0

0,35

114

Guinea-Bissau

1168,29

2

4,85

115

Vietnam

1168,02

0

3,48

116

Libya

1165,99

-2

-0,72

117

Korea DPR

1159,50

1

-1,07

118

Comoros

1158,71

-1

-4,31

119

Lebanon

1155,38

1

-3,58

120

Tanzania

1149,47

-1

-10,34

121

Estonia

1148,98

2

7,85

122

India

1139,58

-1

-6,36

123

Malawi

1138,95

2

-1,98

124

Sierra Leone

1136,90

2

-0,46

125

Cyprus

1136,78

-1

-4,25

126

Zimbabwe

1134,58

-4

-9,08

127

Central African Republic

1128,80

1

0,63

128

Niger

1126,79

1

1,29

129

Rwanda

1126,06

2

13,62

130

Nicaragua

1117,48

5

14,94

131

Sudan

1115,33

-4

-13,99

132

Gambia

1112,55

-2

-2,25

133

Solomon Islands

1111,02

-1

0

134

Indonesia

1108,99

0

6,29

135

Kuwait

1098,12

4

12,66

136

Latvia

1096,32

0

0,41

137

Malaysia

1095,37

1

0,83

138

Lithuania

1095,32

-1

0,09

139

Faroe Islands

1093,70

-6

-9,73

140

Suriname

1087,71

4

15,86

141

Burundi

1078,98

-1

-2,65

142

Turkmenistan

1077,92

1

5,40

143

Antigua and Barbuda

1077,80

-1

5,14

144

Ethiopia

1066,41

1

-2,07

145

Botswana

1064,19

1

-0,88

146

St. Kitts and Nevis

1059,50

1

2,89

147

Philippines

1053,04

-6

-22,10

148

Eswatini

1050,18

0

1,29

149

Dominican Republic

1045,64

1

2,78

150

Lesotho

1038,92

-1

-8,66

151

Moldova

1033,75

2

4,90

152

Liberia

1030,21

0

0,63

153

Guyana

1023,56

1

3,25

154

Afghanistan

1022,17

-3

-14,75

155

Yemen

1021,54

1

4,49

156

New Caledonia

1008,92

2

0,00

157

Singapore

1008,00

-2

-11,06

158

Puerto Rico

1007,97

2

1,62

159

Maldives

1003,48

2

0

160

Tahiti

999,48

2

0

161

Hong Kong

999,41

-4

-13,42

162

Andorra

996,05

2

-2,70

163

St. Lucia

992,07

2

3,40

164

Chinese Taipei

991,05

-5

-16,25

165

Myanmar

988,44

-2

-11,02

166

Papua New Guinea

985,32

0

0

167

Cuba

984,35

2

3,70

168

Fiji

983,81

0

0

169

South Sudan

979,75

-2

-4,90

170

Vanuatu

972,14

2

0

171

Bermuda

971,15

-1

-3,15

172

Malta

970,62

-1

-2,52

173

Grenada

943,77

1

-7,22

174

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

936,18

-1

-17,29

175

Montserrat

934,41

0

-11,67

176

Barbados

932,63

1

-11,17

177

Chad

929,97

-1

-15,95

178

Cambodia

929,52

1

4,12

179

Nepal

923,13

-1

-14,71

180

Samoa

920,54

1

0

181

Dominica

912,98

-1

-9,27

182

Bhutan

904,10

3

0

183

Mauritius

902,94

0

-16,46

184

Belize

901,30

-2

-18,22

185

Macau

896,62

1

0

186

Cook Islands

896,59

1

0

187

Bangladesh

896,43

-3

-8,87

188

American Samoa

890,97

1

0

189

Laos

889,62

1

0

190

Mongolia

879,92

1

-4,12

191

Sao Tomé e Príncipe

877,26

-3

-16,32

192

Brunei Darussalam

872,65

2

0

193

Djibouti

862,37

-1

-14,91

194

Aruba

861,40

-1

-14,42

195

Timor-Leste

843,40

3

0

196

Pakistan

842,59

-1

-7,35

197

Tonga

833,12

4

0

198

Seychelles

831,71

-1

-13,82

199

Gibraltar

831,14

4

-1,36

200

Cayman Islands

831,00

-4

-16,81

201

Liechtenstein

830,85

1

-1,90

202

Somalia

829,81

-3

-12,83

203

Sri Lanka

829,41

1

0

204

Bahamas

823,80

-4

-12,01

205

Guam

821,91

0

0

206

Turks and Caicos Islands

817,03

0

0

207

British Virgin Islands

801,32

0

-11,99

208

US Virgin Islands

797,29

0

0

209

Anguilla

779,60

0

-13,88

210

San Marino

739,64

0

-2,41


About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

2 comments:

  1. Btw, Ed, did Hypercube answer you about one Miami-Dade-based confederation ranking formula?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi George, alas no, I haven't received any reaction from them.

      Delete