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Wednesday, July 3, 2024

FIFA ranking: July 2024 probable ranking (II)

Here is the probable July 2024 ranking, to be published on Thursday July 18th. All results up until yesterday July 2nd are included. Still scheduled matches are: 


- EURO 2024, quarter finals and beyond;

- the Copa America 2024, the knock-out phase starting with the quarter finals;

- the last group stage matches in the COSAFA Cup 2024, plus the knock-out phase, starting with the semi finals.


The postponed WC qualifier Congo-Niger has last week indeed been awarded 0:3 to Niger, because of a no-show of Congo on June 6th in Kinshasa (Congo DR). This match is also included in this second ranking preview.

Thursday, June 13, 2024

FIFA ranking: July 2024 probable ranking

Here is the probable July 2024 ranking, to be published on Thursday July 18th. At least, that's what I expect since FIFA doesn't publish a schedule of publication dates of rankings on their site anymore. It contains the matches in the upcoming three final continental tournaments and the last preparatory friendlies for teams from CONMEBOL and CONCACAF: 

- EURO 2024, starting tomorrow with host Germany versus Scotland;

- the OFC Nations Cup 2024, starting Saturday with host Vanuatu versus Solomon Islands. From this 8-team tournament New Caledonia has recently withdrawn, due to the ongoing political unrest in the French overseas territory;

- the Copa America 2024, starting June 20th with Argentina - Canada.


This preview is calculated with elo-predicted results for all 103 currently played and scheduled and according to my method included matches. See the probable results for a list of which scheduled matches are currently included.

FIFA ranking: July 2024 probable results

Here are the probable results of all 103 played and currently scheduled matches up to and including July 14th, used to calculate the July 2024 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. Also the already played matches since June 12th, (probably) counting for the July ranking, are presented.


Wednesday, June 12, 2024

FIFA ranking: June 2024 final preview

FIFA will publish the June ranking next Thursday June 20th. I expect yesterday June 11th though as the deadline for this ranking instead of the normal June 16th.

I have excluded both postponed WC-qualifiers Congo - Niger and Cuba - Cayman Islands from this preview, because there's yet no decision taken by FIFA regarding these cases.

This ranking will be used as seeding ranking for the draw of the third stage in Asian qualification for the World Cup 2026, scheduled for June 27th.

Sunday, May 26, 2024

UEFA EURO 2024 simulations (May 2024)

The UEFA EURO 2024 will be played between June 14th and July 14th in Germany. It's a 24-team tournament in the now known format with 6 groups of 4 teams and with, besides the group numbers one and two, the four best group numbers three also progressing to the first knock-out round, the round of 16.


The complete tournament schedule plus already scheduled friendlies with UEFA teams involved in the June window are simulated.

Qualification World Cup 2026 10.000 simulations (May 2024)

In the qualification tournaments for the World Cup 2026 Asia plays the final two matchdays for their first group stage in the upcoming June window. The 18 group winners and runners-up of the 9 groups qualify for stage 3 of Asian qualification: another group stage with 3 groups of 6 teams to start  this Autumn, playing a full 10MD-long double round robin schedule to conclude in June next year. Draw for this stage will probably be done somewhere in July with seeding based on the June 2024 ranking.


Africa continues in June their 10 MD-long group stage with match days 3 and 4, while North and Central America and the Caribbean starts with the first two match days in their only 4MD-long single round robin stage 2 group stage.

Saturday, May 25, 2024

FIFA ranking: June 2024 probable ranking

Here is the probable June 2024 ranking, to be published on Thursday June 20th. In the upcoming June window matches will be played for:

- match days 5 and 6 (to a finish) in the groups for AFC World Cup 2026 qualification stage 2;

- match days 1 and 2 in the groups for CONCACAF World Cup 2026 qualification stage 2;

- match days 3 and 4 in the groups for CAF World Cup 2026 qualification stage 1;

- lots of preparatory friendlies for the continental finals starting mid June: EURO, Copa America and OFC Nations Cup.


There are a few uncertainties around this ranking.

FIFA ranking: June 2024 probable results

Here are the probable results of all 192 played and currently scheduled matches up to and including June 11th, used to calculate the June 2024 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. Also the already played matches since April 1st, (probably) counting for the June ranking, are presented.

Wednesday, March 27, 2024

FIFA ranking: April 2024 final preview

FIFA will publish the April ranking next Thursday April 4th. I expect the cancelled Asian World Cup qualifier between Korea DPR and Japan in Pyongyang to be awarded 0:3 to Japan and to be included into this ranking.


With regard to the continental final tournaments this Summer the final qualification berths were divided as follows:

- Poland, Ukraine and debutant Georgia qualified for the EURO;

- Samoa qualified for the OFC Nations Cup;

- Costa Rica and debutant Canada qualified for the Copa America.

The US of A won for the third consecutive time the CONCACAF Nations League Final Four.

Saturday, March 9, 2024

FIFA ranking: April 2024 probable ranking

Here is the probable April 2024 ranking, to be published on Thursday April 4th. A very diverse offering of matches in the upcoming March window:

- match days 3 and 4 in the groups for AFC World Cup 2026 qualification;

- CONCACAF World Cup 2026 qualification starts with the stage 1 home-and-away play-offs between the 4 lowest ranked CONCACAF teams;

- the three qualification play-off paths for the EURO 2024 with two one-off semi finals and a final in each path;

- the two one-off qualification play-offs for the Copa America 2024, played in the USA;

- a three-team qualifier group for the OFC Nations Cup 2024, played in Tonga;

- qualification for the AFCON 2025 starts with preliminary play-offs between the eight lowest ranked African teams;

- the Final Four in the CONCACAF Nations League 2024, played in the USA;

- the two-legged play-off between Lithuania and Gibraltar, deciding which team remains in league C and which team relegates to league D of the UEFA Nations League 2024/25;

- lots of friendlies, both singularly scheduled and in tournament form, with the prototype of the new FIFA Series staged in 4 countries.

FIFA ranking: April 2024 probable results

Here are the probable results of all 161 played and currently scheduled matches up to and including March 31st, used to calculate the April 2024 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. Also the already played matches since February 12th, (probably) counting for the April ranking, are presented.

Wednesday, March 6, 2024

Qualification World Cup 2026 10.000 simulations (March 2024)

In the qualification tournaments for the World Cup 2026 only Asia continues their group stage in the upcoming March window. Africa and South America have a break until respectively June and September. 

North and Central America and the Caribbean will start their qualification campaign with a first stage this March, consisting of two home-and-away play-offs between the four lowest ranked teams. The two winners will progress to stage 2 and join the 28 teams who got a bye, in a group stage with a single round robin format, starting in June. The draw for the first two stages was staged last January with a seeding based on the December 2023 ranking.

Saturday, March 2, 2024

UEFA EURO 2024 simulations (March 2024)

In 2024 five of the six confederations have scheduled their continental championship for national teams. Here's the fifth and last in this series of simulation reports: Europe.


The UEFA EURO 2024 will be hosted by Germany. It's a 24-team tournament in the now known format with the four best group numbers three also progressing to the first knock-out round, the round of 16.

Qualified already are 21 teams (the host plus the group numbers one and two of ten qualification groups). The final 3 berths are determined this March in three play-off paths, in two one-off semi finals and a final per path. Compared to the EURO 2020 qualification play-offs league D no longer has it's own path, which I consider a logical thing to do.

Saturday, February 24, 2024

Copa America 2024 simulations (February 2024)

In 2024 five of the six confederations have scheduled their continental championship for national teams. Here's number four in this series of simulation reports: North, Central and South America.


The Copa America 2024 was initially intended as the continental championship of South America, edition number 48 of this oldest continental championship in the football world. However, in January 2023 a new strategic partnership was signed between CONMEBOL and CONCACAF and with that came a second combined 'Copa of the Americas' (after the Copa America Centenario in 2016). Again 6 CONCACAF teams (besides the 10 CONMEBOL members) were able to qualify for the tournament. It will be hosted by the United States. It is yet unknown if this one is the first of a combined Americas Cup from now on.

Sunday, February 18, 2024

OFC Cup of Nations 2024 simulations (February 2024)

In 2024 five of the six confederations have scheduled their continental championship for national teams. Here's number three in this series of simulation reports: Oceania.


The OFC Cup of Nations 2024 is the first continental final tournament in 8 years. The 2020 edition was first postponed and later in 2021 completely cancelled because of the strict COVID-19 measures in the Pacific island area. New Zealand was appointed to host that version.


The 2024 version now is hosted in Vanuatu and will be played from 15 to 30 June 2024. A separate qualification stage in March is played in Tonga between the four lowest ranked OFC-nations in the December 2023 ranking. This to decide one team that qualifies for the group stage proper.

Of the 4 lowest ranked teams American Samoa withdrew, so a single round robin group stage is played between Samoa, Cook Islands and host Tonga.

Sunday, February 11, 2024

FIFA ranking: February 2024 final preview

FIFA will publish the February ranking this Thursday February 15th. The Asian and African Cup of Nations, played last month in Qatar and Cote d'Ivoire respectively, both left their mark on this ranking.

The Asian Cup was won by host Qatar yesterday for a second consecutive time. In the final against Jordan they needed three penalties (all correctly given, according to people who saw the match) to win 3:1.

The African Cup (with a buck load of surprises throughout the month) will see the final tonight between host Cote d'Ivoire and Nigeria. This is how the points and positions of both teams could change in the ranking:


 

CIV

 

NGA

result

pts

pos

 

pts

pos

CIV win

1494,515

39

1522,195

28

CIV PSO win

1484,515

42

1522,195

28

NGA PSO win

1474,515

44

1530,298

27

NGA win

1472,618

45

1540,298

26


Elo predicts a draw after extra time with the host prevailing after a penalty shoot-out.

Saturday, January 6, 2024

FIFA ranking: February 2024 probable ranking

Here is the probable February 2024 ranking, to be published on Thursday February 15th. No upcoming international window, but instead two continental championships in Asia and Africa to be played until then. The Asian Cup of Nations 2023 and the African Cup of Nations 2023, both originally scheduled for last summer, will start next weekend. A large batch of preparatory friendlies is already underway.

FIFA ranking: February 2024 probable results

Here are the probable results of all 151 played and currently scheduled matches up to and including February 11th, used to calculate the February 2024 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. Also the already played matches since December 18th, (probably) counting for the February ranking, are presented.