Following today's draw, here's the result of the simulation run.
NOTE: the "SimWin" represents the percentage of the 10000 simulation runs that the team won the match. The "win %" represents what percentage of the time the team won when it reached the final.
Path A
Semi Final
SimWin
Wales 68.49%
Bosnia and Herzegovina 31.51%
SimWin
Italy 78.70%
Northern Ireland 21.30%
Final
SimWin Win %
Italy 54.39% 68.75%
Wales 28.01% 40.90%
Bosnia and Herzegovina 8.82% 41.41%
Northern Ireland 8.78% 27.86%
Path B
Semi Final
SimWin
Ukraine 54.39%
Sweden 45.61%
SimWin
Poland 65.30%
Albania 34.70%
Final
SimWin Win %
Ukraine 30.80% 56.63%
Poland 30.47% 46.66%
Sweden 25.57% 56.06%
Albania 13.16% 37.93%
Path C
Semi Final
SimWin
Türkiye 61.81%
Romania 38.19%
SimWin
Slovakia 70.34%
Kosovo 29.66%
Final
SimWin Win %
Türkiye 38.63% 62.50%
Slovakia 32.97% 46.87%
Romania 19.88% 52.06%
Kosovo 8.52% 28.73%
Path D
Semi Final
SimWin
Denmark 71.61%
North Macedonia 28.39%
SimWin
Czechia 62.79%
Ireland 37.21%
Final
SimWin Win %
Denmark 45.76% 63.90%
Czechia 28.28% 45.04%
Ireland 14.06% 37.79%
North Macedonia 11.90% 41.92%
My heart says:
ReplyDeleteWales
Ukraine
Romania
Ireland
My head says:
Italy
Poland
Turkey
Denmark
For path A it's clear that this isn't a walkover for Italy and I think the chances of them missing out for a third World Cup in a row are significant, because Wales away in an eventual final is going to be tough.
DeleteProbably it'll be Ukraine v Poland in the final for path B, and it will then be interesting to see if Ukraine will give up home advantage by having the matched played in Poland. But they've played in other countries recently so probably they won't. The simulation assumes the match is played Ukraine, I haven't configured it to use a neutral venue if it's Ukraine that gets through to the final. Too close to call who would win then for me, but Poland won last time in 2024.
In path C I think Türkiye are firm favorites in my mind no matter that the simulation says that it will be close. I think that's probably because Slovakia would be playing at home in the final (ruling Kosovo out completely).
For path D I think any of those teams could win. While Denmark would of course be the favorite, I don't think their last couple of matches would fill them with very much confidence. As favorite they'll also be under pressure, so I would fancy either Czechia or Ireland for another upset.