Football Rankings: 2025

Saturday, October 18, 2025

2026 World Cup Qualifying Asia Fifth Round - 10000 Simulations

In the AFC Fifth round the United Arab Emirates will face off against Iraq for a chance to qualify for the Intercontinental Playoffs. With there being just 10 places between the two in the latest FIFA Ranking, we expect a close-run affair. Below are the results of the 10000 simulation runs, with Iraq having a slightly better chance as we'd expect:

Iraq 57.65%
United Arab Emirates 42.35%

2026 World Cup Qualifying CONCACAF 10000 Simulations (update 18 October 2025)

Here's a simulation of the 2026 World Cup Qualifying CONCACAF Third Round.

So it would look like currently Panama, Jamaica and Honduras are slight favorites to win their groups and qualify for the finals, with Costa Rica having the best chances to upset that, followed by Curaçao. Surinam and Guatemala are still in the running for the Intercontinental qualifying spot. Comparing this to the previous simulation El Salvador's chances have dropped significantly.

Group A

Winner Run-Up Third Fourth

Panama 61.92% 24.78% 9.79% 3.51%

Surinam 17.99% 39.53% 26.58% 15.90%

Guatamala 16.95% 29.39% 38.52% 15.14%

El Salvador 3.14% 6.30% 25.11% 65.45%

Group B

Winner Run-Up Third Fourth

Jamaica 68.85% 23.13% 8.02% 0.00%

Curaçao 28.48% 54.76% 16.76% 0.00%

Trinidad and Tobago 2.67% 22.11% 73.34% 1.88%

Bermuda 0.00% 0.00% 1.88% 98.12%

Group C

Winner Run-Up Third Fourth

Honduras 58.50% 35.74% 5.76% 0.00%

Costa Rica 35.40% 38.85% 25.37% 0.38%

Haiti 6.10% 25.41% 63.83% 4.66%

Nicaragua 0.00% 0.00% 5.04% 94.96%

2026 World Cup Qualifying UEFA 10000 Simulations (update 18 October 2025)

Here's the latest simulation for the UEFA part of the 2026 World Cup qualifying.

Qualifying Groups

Group A - Germany and Slovakia swapped with Germany now having the better chances again. Northern Ireland look pretty certain to reach the playoffs.

Group B - Switzerland are odds on favorite to win the group, and further below Kosovo and Sweden swapped places, but Sweden are certain to reach the playoffs no matter what place they finish in the group if the simulations are anything to go by,

Group C - It's a simple two-horse race between Denmark and Scotland.

Group D - France is clear favorite for the finals, and below that Ukraine and Iceland swapped places, with the former now being favorite to grab the playoff spot.

Group E - Spain is still hot favorite to qualify automatically with Türkiye strong favorite for the playoff spot.

Group F - Portugal should qualify automatically, and Hungary are most likely to take the playoff spot.

Group G - The Netherlands should secure the top spot and Poland will then qualify for the playoffs.

Group H - Austria should prevail to take the top spot, but Romania is in the race again for second place, but even if they don't manage that, they're favorites for the playoff spot via the Nations League spot.

Group I - Norway should take the top spot with Italy requiring a huge win against them to stand any chance to not be destined for the playoffs for the third straight time.

Group J - Belgium should qualify automatically and Wales and North Macedonia should fight it out for the playoff place, but both should be pretty certain to qualify for the playoffs via the Nations League if they don't finish runner-up.

Group K - With England having qualified, Albania and Serbia will fight for the runner-up place.

Group L - According to all simulation runs Croatia ends up on top so seems pretty certain to qualify. Below them the Faroe Islands and Montenegro swapped places, but Czechia are still odds on favorite to take the qualifying spot.

NOTE 1: The "Pl-off" column suggests the chance to have to play the playoff, the "Q-Totl" suggest the total chance to qualify either as group winner or as playoff path winner, and the "NotQual" column suggest the chances of not qualifying, including via the playoffs.