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Sunday, January 2, 2022

FIFA ranking February 2022: preview results

Here are the scheduled matches counting for the FIFA February 2022 ranking with FIFA's Home Team Win Expectancy (We) in % and the points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team. In cases where matches can go to PSO, also the points exchanged when the home team wins (PSO-W) of loses (PSO-L) the penalty shoot-out are given.


The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my inclusion-method.

Normally the home team's gained points will be the away-team's lost points. Still, both are given because there are in FIFA's calculation approach cases when they will not be the same: PSO-matches and knock-out matches in final competitions.

FIFA ranking February 2022: preview

Here are the minimum and maximum points for each team in the February 2022 ranking. FIFA will publish the ranking on February 10th.

Minimum and maximum points per team are determined with a small piece of software which calculates per match the minimum and maximum possible points for each participating team, given the minimum and maximum starting values of both teams before the match.


Note that only scheduled (and included) matches with both teams known at calculation time are incorporated in this analysis.

FIFA ranking: February 2022 probable ranking

Here is the probable February 2022 ranking, to be published on Thursday February 10th.

This ranking will include the semi finals and finals of the South East Asian Championship, the complete African Cup of Nations 2022 in Cameroon and the WC-qualifiers in CONCACAF, AFC and CONMEBOL in the (added) January 2022 match window. Furthermore, quite a few friendlies will be played in this month.


This preview is calculated with elo-predicted results for all 114 currently scheduled and according to my method included matches, out of a total of 124 currently scheduled matches. See the probable results for a list of which scheduled matches are included.

FIFA ranking: February 2022 probable results

Here are the probable results of all 124 currently scheduled matches up to and including February 6th, used to calculate the February 2022 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings.

Also the already played matches since December 20th, (probably) counting for the February ranking, are presented.


The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my inclusion-method. Also the Home Team Win Expectancy (We) according to elo is given for each match in %.

Thursday, December 30, 2021

African Cup of Nations 2022 simulations (December 2021)

The African Cup of Nations 2021 was initially scheduled for June 2021 in Cameroon, but soon moved back to January 2021 due to unfavourable climatic conditions in this time of the year. Then the COVID-19 pandemic forced a postponement of this tournament to January 2022. 

Now it  seems ready to be played. Proper preparation for the participating teams is still hampered though by COVID-19: most teams stay in homeland training camps and only a few preparatory friendlies are played next week before the continental showpiece kicks off on Sunday January 9th in Cameroon.


It has the same format as the AFCON 2019 in Egypt with 24 teams in 6 groups of 4 and a Round of 16 for which the 6 group numbers one and two qualify plus the 4 best group numbers three.

Sunday, December 19, 2021

FIFA ranking: December 2021 final preview

FIFA will publish the December ranking next Thursday December 23rd. This final preview contains 59 matches, out of 59 matches played since November 17th. 

Only today's final matches in group B of the South East Asian Championship 2021 (Malaysia-Indonesia and Vietnam-Cambodia) are to be played and included:


MAS

IDN

pts

pos

pts

pos

Malaysia win

1039,53

153

987,31

165

Malaysia draw

1037,03

153

989,81

165

Malaysia loss

1034,53

154

992,31

164

VIE

CAM

pts

pos

pts

pos

Vietnam win

1212,54

98

966,61

171

Vietnam draw

1210,04

98

969,11

170

Vietnam loss

1207,54

100

971,61

170


Elo predicts a Malaysia draw and a Vietnam win.

Sunday, November 28, 2021

FIFA ranking: December 2021 probable ranking

The publishing date of the December 2021 ranking is pushed back one week. Probably to be able to include the complete Arab Cup in Qatar and the complete group phase of the South East Asian Championships in Singapore, the two regional tournaments taking the headlines this month. Matches in both tournaments are friendlies for ranking calculations purposes, so teams can lose points in knock-out matches also.


Here is the probable December 2021 ranking, to be published on Thursday December 23rd.

This preview is calculated with elo-predicted results for all 56 currently scheduled and according to my method included matches, out of a total of 56 currently scheduled matches. See the probable results for a list of which scheduled matches are included.