tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post2280379772452387711..comments2024-03-19T10:27:00.991+01:00Comments on Football rankings: Confederation weightings update (27 June 2014)Edhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06640136267487836463noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-82620413260728402692018-07-15T20:04:52.530+02:002018-07-15T20:04:52.530+02:00Maybe no longer relevant as FIFA will no longer us...Maybe no longer relevant as FIFA will no longer use these after the 2018 World Cup, but still interesting considering Europe again dominated:<br /><br />UEFA 0.98 (-0.01)<br />CONMEBOL 1.00 (0)<br />CONCACAF 0.86 (+0.01)<br />AFC 0.80 (+0.02)<br />CAF 0.81 (0)<br />OFC 0.71 (0)<br />Homerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11346782643859833624noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-17407794666283445152014-07-09T04:07:59.154+02:002014-07-09T04:07:59.154+02:00I understand that the 2014 wins/game calculation i...I understand that the 2014 wins/game calculation is lower, but that's because CONCACAF earned a fourth team into the World Cup (as compared to only 3 in 2002). The current system has a perverse incentive to have marginal teams from a confederation LOSE the inter-continental playoff if that lowest-ranked team would do worse than the average other team from that confederation at the finals. Pinyanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06428397215278760136noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-72707927335490549792014-07-08T14:17:49.523+02:002014-07-08T14:17:49.523+02:00Then UEFA can never grow, even if they fully deser...Then UEFA can never grow, even if they fully deserve it. Instead, maybe it's a good idea to scale for the original number of berths:<br /><br />Bt18 = ((1 + Av14/Av10) * Bt14) * 31/BtTot18<br /><br />This leads to:<br />AFC: 4<br />CAF: 4.5<br />CONCACAF: 3.5<br />CONMEBOL: 5<br />OFC: 0.5<br />UEFA: 13.5<br /><br />AFC and CAF would each lose a half berth in favor of the only two Edhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06640136267487836463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-43931757211883703252014-07-08T13:09:45.903+02:002014-07-08T13:09:45.903+02:00Ed, you're right ofcourse, but the formula is ...Ed, you're right ofcourse, but the formula is a W.I.P. (Work in progress). Maybe the formula should be slightly changed to rule out the advantage of already having high number of berths and thus favouring UEFA.<br /><br />Or maybe because of the high number of UEFA berths, you should give UEFA 13 berths, no matter what the results are. If you do that in this occasion, you would get:<br /><br Tobcoachhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09741550015164246753noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-91803263370478661492014-07-08T09:52:38.375+02:002014-07-08T09:52:38.375+02:00Tobcoach, I like this idea.
No massive changes in...Tobcoach, I like this idea. <br />No massive changes in number of berths as a result, but past performances do count in fair measure: <br />AFC performed really bad this edition and as a result loses one berth, CONMEBOL performed extraordinary well and gains a half berth. <br /><br />I only have some problems with the behaviour of this formula with regard to UEFA. Their average for this edition Edhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06640136267487836463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-10394445263822973092014-07-08T08:22:24.010+02:002014-07-08T08:22:24.010+02:00I would highly favour the coefficients to play a p...I would highly favour the coefficients to play a part in the determination of the number of WorldCup berths for each confederation.<br /><br />My suggestion would be that the average points per game should be a factor. You could use a simple formula like this:<br /><br />Bt18 = ((Av14/Av10)*Bt14)*31/BtTot18<br /><br />Bt18 = numer of berths for WC18<br />Av14 = average points per game after WC14 Tobcoachhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09741550015164246753noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-773870249114817912014-07-08T08:00:36.403+02:002014-07-08T08:00:36.403+02:00Actually their performance on the WC14 is slightly...Actually their performance on the WC14 is slightly worse than on the WC02 (0.55 in WC02 and 0.47 in WC14), which will be dropped after this WC is finished. So their average over the past 3 WC's is affected a bit by that. Combined with the extraordinary performance of the CONMEBOL-countries, CONCACAF drops below the 0.85 mark.<br /><br />I'm sure that if CONCACAF is able to do as well in Tobcoachhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09741550015164246753noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-54001532445916165752014-07-08T01:51:31.186+02:002014-07-08T01:51:31.186+02:00It seems brutal for CONCACAF to have their best pe...It seems brutal for CONCACAF to have their best performance, with 3 of 4 teams making the knockouts and Costa Rica making the quarterfinals, only to have their coefficient fall to the basement, level with AFC (4 teams, 0 wins) and OFC.Pinyanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06428397215278760136noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-56129935733230516592014-06-28T03:35:33.550+02:002014-06-28T03:35:33.550+02:00Few interesting notes:
despite having 5 teams in t...Few interesting notes:<br />despite having 5 teams in the knockout round only 1 in the first round can effect CONMEBOL (Argentina). In fact this is true for the first 2 rounds (assuming Argentina wins their first match)<br /><br />Also if we play out what Edgar posted as the "probable results":<br />CONMEBOL 1<br />UEFA 0.98<br />CONCACAF, CAF, AFC, OFC 0.85<br /><br />So basically no Watsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07225132884399101151noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-87825931914007516622014-06-27T15:24:03.304+02:002014-06-27T15:24:03.304+02:00Thanks, you're right (of course).
Strange as...Thanks, you're right (of course). <br /><br />Strange assumption from FIFA though, as in the ranking calculation a PSO win isn't considered a full win (it isn't exactly considered a draw neither, but okay...)Edhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06640136267487836463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-62676015155894993322014-06-27T15:07:14.255+02:002014-06-27T15:07:14.255+02:00FIFA consider PSO wins as full wins. See this PDF....FIFA consider PSO wins as full wins. See this <a href="http://www.fifa.com/mm/document/fifafacts/r&a-wr/52/00/97/fs-590%5f10e%5fwrpoints.pdf" rel="nofollow">PDF</a>.Edgarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03420252819752301980noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-91540765619700222052014-06-27T15:02:02.207+02:002014-06-27T15:02:02.207+02:00Edgar,
I notice a few things in your overview tha...Edgar,<br /><br />I notice a few things in your overview that are not as expected:<br />UEFA 2006: should be 25,5 pts from 34 matches (22 wins, 7 draws)<br />CONMEBOL 2006: should be 11.0 pts from 17 matches (10 wins, 2 draws)<br />CONMEBOL 2010: should be 15.0 pts from 24 matches (12 wins, 6 draws)<br />CAF 2010: should be 7.0 pts from 20 matches (4 wins, 6 draws)<br />AFC 2010: should be 5.5 Edhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06640136267487836463noreply@blogger.com