tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post487440654333945991..comments2024-03-28T17:34:31.597+01:00Comments on Football rankings: FIFA World Cup 2022 simulations (October 2022)Edhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06640136267487836463noreply@blogger.comBlogger18125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-8104090643867320922022-11-16T17:17:41.089+01:002022-11-16T17:17:41.089+01:00Haha either one of course. I'm excited to see...Haha either one of course. I'm excited to see the outcome of some of these models. I added a small market-value correction to mine (elo correction) to see how it does. Admittedly with no testing of that against previous world cups...dopeislandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17606692867466284723noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-38005785314116932022022-11-16T10:44:28.726+01:002022-11-16T10:44:28.726+01:00Nice suggestion, dopeisland (or should I say Alex ...Nice suggestion, dopeisland (or should I say Alex ?). I've submitted the NT-ELO predictions.Edhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06640136267487836463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-23331268659644733702022-11-15T20:00:56.263+01:002022-11-15T20:00:56.263+01:00Ed- do you plan to enter your model predictions in...Ed- do you plan to enter your model predictions into the futbolmetrix model competition for the world cup? (The Sophisticated Prediction contest)dopeislandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17606692867466284723noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-16970492222789847932022-10-23T08:35:32.183+02:002022-10-23T08:35:32.183+02:00Btw, very valid points, dopeisland and NM, that yo...Btw, very valid points, dopeisland and NM, that you make here about the elo rating. But I have to work with the best ranking/rating system that's currently available, and that's still the elo ranking, even with all it's known drawbacks.Edhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06640136267487836463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-59310657010074661272022-10-22T08:22:16.094+02:002022-10-22T08:22:16.094+02:00I don't want to 'impose' anything on a...I don't want to 'impose' anything on anyone or any country. That's the freedom that everybody has to live their own life. I am not trying to impose my rules and thoughts on others by force. I only express my opinion here. I just hope that somebody reads it and thinks "what if I was a homosexual, would I agree with being killed because I love another human being?".<br /><Edhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06640136267487836463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-50086559123205769692022-10-22T06:46:05.659+02:002022-10-22T06:46:05.659+02:00There is something very crooked here! The majority...There is something very crooked here! The majority of the world has standards that you want to impose on Qatar (a "minority"), and the minority of the world is LBGT and you want to recognize them. So which is it???Homerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11346782643859833624noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-57255852631387353452022-10-21T17:29:05.117+02:002022-10-21T17:29:05.117+02:00I don't hate. I only have great difficulty wit...I don't hate. I only have great difficulty with a country that puts the death penalty on homosexuality, because it's not 'normal human nature'. <br />Please be comforted, I have great difficulty with almost all religions because almost every religion thinks they can dictate what's normal and what's not :)Edhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06640136267487836463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-748177675624723212022-10-21T16:13:12.991+02:002022-10-21T16:13:12.991+02:00I think Ed was actually pretty straightforward in ...I think Ed was actually pretty straightforward in his presentation of Qatar, it is, in fact, a Muslim emirate and has laws that are considered very socially regressive by the standard of the majority of the world. I hope you reconsider your comment that any LGBT+ folks are "against the normal human nature," as well. This blog is a place to discuss football rankings, models, dopeislandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17606692867466284723noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-37771668612029652842022-10-21T13:11:33.558+02:002022-10-21T13:11:33.558+02:00Although I agree with most of what you mentioned i...Although I agree with most of what you mentioned in the introduction about Qatar and the Qatari team, I don’t see your point why not having the World Cup in a Muslim country. Part of your speech is an obvious hate speech and stereotype about Islam. If you mean by freedom the LGBT matter, then Islam and all religions is against that because it’s against the normal human nature. Other things like Hamzahnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-33149440499436123942022-10-20T14:20:21.597+02:002022-10-20T14:20:21.597+02:00Another contributing factor specifically in the ca...Another contributing factor specifically in the case of Senegal is their performance at the COSAFA Cup in July. Here, they drew Eswatini 1-1 (advancing on penalties), lost to Zambia 4-3, and again drew Mozambique 1-1 (winning on penalties). For these they were severely punished in the Elo rankings, losing 67 ratings points.<br /><br />Now, these results are somewhat embarassing, but are mostly NMhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03659059863097685724noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-33308063332105978362022-10-11T05:40:32.770+02:002022-10-11T05:40:32.770+02:00Elo indeed has a regional problem - since there ar...Elo indeed has a regional problem - since there are not many matches between teams from different confederations, it takes a long time for ELO to adjust to the actual average per confederation.<br />If the difference are getting smaller (which is something worth testing), it means that Elo will indeed under-estimate CAFAmirnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-34461910252183746812022-10-10T18:11:53.707+02:002022-10-10T18:11:53.707+02:00Although I can't think of any good reason why ...Although I can't think of any good reason why someone should bet, here are the (rounded) win/draw/loss probabilities for the group matches of Iran and Canada:<br /><br />ENG-IRN: We = 0,647. W/D/L probabilities for ENG: 50% - 25% - 25%<br />WAL-IRN: We = 0,490. W/D/L probabilities for WAL: 36% - 26% - 38%<br />IRN-USA: We = 0,523. W/D/L probabilities for IRN: 38% - 26% - 35%<br /><br />Edhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06640136267487836463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-603458827955028842022-10-10T15:47:15.351+02:002022-10-10T15:47:15.351+02:00This is a great explanation Ed! In my own modeling...This is a great explanation Ed! In my own modeling I found the same surprising result, which led me to looking into Senegal's match history, and really they have struggled to consistently beat African opponents through qualifying, AFCON group stage, etc. Sure elo has *some* regionalization problems which may lower CAF teams ratings in general, but if you are a team that couldn't find dopeislandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17606692867466284723noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-17798848872026204942022-10-10T15:42:47.649+02:002022-10-10T15:42:47.649+02:00Thanks again for all the work, I am an Iranian-Can...Thanks again for all the work, I am an Iranian-Canadian, and lucky enough, both of my teams are playing @ Doha WC2022. I guess now I will double my money on my bettings with the equations I just went through. Seems very solid. <br />Can You also take it to the next level and predict Iran- England or even Iran-USA match?<br />Sorry if I am looking at Your hard work as financial.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-13071435805782589402022-10-10T08:47:22.235+02:002022-10-10T08:47:22.235+02:00I agree. I think Senegal is much more dangerous fo...I agree. I think Senegal is much more dangerous for the Dutch than Qatar.<br />Thanks for the kind words !Edhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06640136267487836463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-21307418671793627852022-10-10T07:47:38.157+02:002022-10-10T07:47:38.157+02:00Thanks so much for the explanation! Of course I wa...Thanks so much for the explanation! Of course I was aware that simulation cannot take into account subjective things like "Sadio Mane is rad", but I found it interesting, that any other result from this simulation looks very probable, but - at least to me - Senegal stands out here big time. But all in all - this looks like a very good model.Kubahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12768070390698939162noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-70382852971319123472022-10-09T21:10:02.935+02:002022-10-09T21:10:02.935+02:00Well, these simulations do not take into account a...Well, these simulations do not take into account anything you said :) It's not about titles won, the squad on the pitch or recent form but in essence it all comes down to elo-ratings differences of the opponents before each group match determining the elo win expectancy of each match. And that's the only number with which this simulation works. <br />Of course the elo rating of a team Edhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06640136267487836463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-71242665943572129142022-10-09T17:11:03.839+02:002022-10-09T17:11:03.839+02:00Nice job, thank you. I'm just really puzzled a...Nice job, thank you. I'm just really puzzled and curious about what happened to Senegal here? African Champions, really solid squad, long term coach, decent results. So why are they predicted to botton the group with Qatar and Ecuador?Kubahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12768070390698939162noreply@blogger.com