tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post4967506852470303892..comments2024-03-28T17:34:31.597+01:00Comments on Football rankings: FIFA ranking: August 2021 final previewEdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06640136267487836463noreply@blogger.comBlogger32125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-80729139840832517862021-09-02T04:26:24.034+02:002021-09-02T04:26:24.034+02:00This is an outstanding explanation and thanks for ...This is an outstanding explanation and thanks for the detailed explanation.<br /><br />Honestly in my opinion, I think having the additional condition of where the match played was an unintended consequence which FIFA did not foresee. I have the feeling that FIFA will eliminate this and revise the I factor for next release. I do see Qatar playing a lot of friendlies and spot a few of them outsideRamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14713766150927584945noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-40189079311067146652021-09-02T04:25:49.633+02:002021-09-02T04:25:49.633+02:00This comment has been removed by the author.Ramhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14713766150927584945noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-67350633409663005342021-08-28T09:24:58.059+02:002021-08-28T09:24:58.059+02:00Until now the I-factor for friendlies was only bas...Until now the I-factor for friendlies was only based on the match date. It was very simple: if the match date falls inside the IMW then I=10 else I=5. <br />But now with all the match schedule adjustments because of COVID-19 FIFA is forced to define for the IMW's until Summer 2022 different periods for different confederations: there is no longer one IMW for all confederations. For instance: Edhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06640136267487836463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-27214339862678204172021-08-27T19:25:18.655+02:002021-08-27T19:25:18.655+02:00Hi Ed, I am confused with I=5 and I=10...It's ...Hi Ed, I am confused with I=5 and I=10...It's my understanding the I=5 is applied to friendlies played outside IMC, and I=10 within IMC...not if a country played with another outside their region as in Japan-Serbia.<br /><br />so by your logic, I=5 is applied when CRC-SLV played on 08.21 and yet for the SLV-VEN (08.27) I=10 should be applied but you used I=5 even thou VEN is from CONMEBOL. Ramhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14713766150927584945noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-39695091815586783542021-08-25T16:22:39.488+02:002021-08-25T16:22:39.488+02:00Hi Ed, no, I think you misunderstand. I always use...Hi Ed, no, I think you misunderstand. I always use unrounded numbers for every calculation, always have, for the many years I've done this, and I only show rounded numbers for presentation in my application (actually with a checkbox I can see both). What I meant was that when I corrected my country points when FIFA started showing two decimal places in April, I corrected my "unrounded&Homerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11346782643859833624noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-3383252026442192822021-08-25T11:28:05.780+02:002021-08-25T11:28:05.780+02:00Hi Homer,
indeed, your small differences must be...Hi Homer, <br /><br />indeed, your small differences must be caused by using (correctly) the unrounded numbers in the calculations while at the same time your starting points from the May ranking were 'only' correct on two decimals. Of course the starting points should be unrounded too.<br />After the April 2021 ranking I made only a few adjustments: for the CONCACAF teams BRB, GUY and Edhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06640136267487836463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-82120059938260248162021-08-25T07:43:04.032+02:002021-08-25T07:43:04.032+02:00Hi Ed, hope you had a nice holiday! I'm a litt...Hi Ed, hope you had a nice holiday! I'm a little surprised you have the same numbers, but it could be because of the correction differences that were (needed to be) made for the April ranking. I myself have very small differences for 12 CONCACAF nations, and unsurprisingly all of them were "corrected" in my database after FIFA published their April ranking with the decimals. Homerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11346782643859833624noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-61888245311698814402021-08-24T09:45:46.752+02:002021-08-24T09:45:46.752+02:00Well, I'm back from holiday and have finally f...Well, I'm back from holiday and have finally found the time to research the published August ranking. <br /><br />Although FIFA initially published only the integer points, after a few days the pleasant surprise came that they indeed switched to publishing the first two decimals again. Great !<br /><br />In comparison with my final preview FIFA included the following matches that I excluded:<Edhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06640136267487836463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-58156327183624037972021-08-21T13:38:15.538+02:002021-08-21T13:38:15.538+02:00That's a huge help, but a lot of rounding erro...That's a huge help, but a lot of rounding errors now. At least the problems with Malawi and Bahamas (not Bermuda) are gone, which is strange because that shouldn't make a difference, unless FIFA use some strange rounding, or fewer decimals. But at least this clears up the problem regarding the two Namibian matches before the COSAFA Cup. Neither their match against Lesotho nor Botswana areHomerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11346782643859833624noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-60934134443232536492021-08-21T13:37:55.108+02:002021-08-21T13:37:55.108+02:00This comment has been removed by the author.Homerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11346782643859833624noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-37267218886441498652021-08-21T13:37:15.333+02:002021-08-21T13:37:15.333+02:00This comment has been removed by the author.Homerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11346782643859833624noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-59680237648573723402021-08-20T10:26:53.050+02:002021-08-20T10:26:53.050+02:00Good news, the decimals are coming back in FIFA we...Good news, the decimals are coming back in FIFA websiteFauzan Naufanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13477336717391963926noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-20179785972245783772021-08-17T07:17:32.376+02:002021-08-17T07:17:32.376+02:00Anyone else have these tiny discrepancies for Mala...Anyone else have these tiny discrepancies for Malawi and Bermuda???Homerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11346782643859833624noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-37907843538519328002021-08-16T22:36:34.179+02:002021-08-16T22:36:34.179+02:00I wish you nice holidays Ed... Enjoy it. I wish you nice holidays Ed... Enjoy it. Tarekhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02474890493237269194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-5065388615752047372021-08-16T21:52:56.733+02:002021-08-16T21:52:56.733+02:00Hey Tarek (and everybody else),
I will of course, ...Hey Tarek (and everybody else),<br />I will of course, but at the moment I'm enjoying my holiday. It will be next week at the earliest that I will be able to thoroughly look at the August ranking in comparison with my calculations and also update the points calculation sheet afterwards.Edhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06640136267487836463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-16783772132513118182021-08-16T13:16:59.345+02:002021-08-16T13:16:59.345+02:00Hi Ed, I'm wondering if you will update the li...Hi Ed, I'm wondering if you will update the link of overall "Points Calculation" matches and rankings. It seems to me that last update was since May,21 while huge updates after while. Thanks in advance.Tarekhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02474890493237269194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-5639373528293713902021-08-16T02:58:19.900+02:002021-08-16T02:58:19.900+02:00I've been playing around with the FIFA ranking...I've been playing around with the FIFA rankings and their formula. Most of you probably know there is a factor of 600 applied in the Win Expectancy Calculation. Basically a team that is 600 points ahead of it's opponent will have a win exp. of 90.9%. I was curious of that number matched up well to the fairly large set of results we've had since June 2018. <br /><br />And well the CWY2190https://www.blogger.com/profile/07489877587725781507noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-60075759327773066302021-08-14T14:10:45.449+02:002021-08-14T14:10:45.449+02:00Correction: https://digitalhub.fifa.com/m/88176dce...Correction: https://digitalhub.fifa.com/m/88176dce3738a428/original/cd3qpcttmbbjowbso2tz-pdf.pdfHomerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11346782643859833624noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-62317433365213631582021-08-14T13:55:03.378+02:002021-08-14T13:55:03.378+02:00I can get it down to two unexplainable differences...I can get it down to two unexplainable differences:<br /><br />- Bahamas 858.506 (me) against 858 (FIFA)<br />- Malawi 1153.496 (me) against 1154 (FIFA)<br /><br />This is 348 matches:<br /> 100 Friendlies <br /> 2 Baltic Cup<br /> 1 ANC Qualifier<br /> 51 Euro 2020<br /> 28 Copa America<br /> 25 Gold Cup<br /> 5 Gold Cup Qualifiers<br /> 4 CCC Nations League Finals<br /> Homerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11346782643859833624noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-42733331327711822392021-08-14T10:42:35.617+02:002021-08-14T10:42:35.617+02:00I'm down to the last few differences. What see...I'm down to the last few differences. What seems to be the case is that we have a split FIFA calendar between confederations (https://kassiesa.net/uefa/files/2018-24-fifa-calendar.pdf). UEFA/CONMEBOL use the standard one from 31 May to 8 June, and the rest until 15 June. I had to write a new scraper for automating the calculation given the new website, and I'm having to model the Homerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11346782643859833624noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-75108557032036386822021-08-14T10:37:56.969+02:002021-08-14T10:37:56.969+02:00This comment has been removed by the author.Homerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11346782643859833624noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-89740380003996632962021-08-13T03:03:01.043+02:002021-08-13T03:03:01.043+02:00The fun part of having over 300 matches. We need t...The fun part of having over 300 matches. We need to figure out what and how FIFA counted things. CWY2190https://www.blogger.com/profile/07489877587725781507noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-2640047740109973172021-08-13T02:21:45.630+02:002021-08-13T02:21:45.630+02:00I got the correct points after excluding Lithuania...I got the correct points after excluding Lithuania vs Estonia, and set the I-factor for Estonia vs Latvia to 5Fauzan Naufanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13477336717391963926noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-40595360842380435402021-08-12T17:32:01.180+02:002021-08-12T17:32:01.180+02:00Have you been able to figure out the Estonia/Lithu...Have you been able to figure out the Estonia/Lithuania/Latvia rankings from FIFA? It doesn't work for me when I remove the Baltic Cup nor if I make it worth 5 or 10 points. Confused.CWY2190https://www.blogger.com/profile/07489877587725781507noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-31008300496446228412021-08-11T16:50:58.785+02:002021-08-11T16:50:58.785+02:00That site has wrong calculation of coeffs. It shou...That site has wrong calculation of coeffs. It should be done recursively just like on Ed springsheets. Instead they add/subtract points from previous piblished rankings.kauhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16708353339358926318noreply@blogger.com