tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post5328391522469283234..comments2024-03-28T17:34:31.597+01:00Comments on Football rankings: 2022 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations (5 September 2018)Edhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06640136267487836463noreply@blogger.comBlogger21125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-10932519559732831652018-09-14T18:13:24.301+02:002018-09-14T18:13:24.301+02:00If you have to integrate the Nations League into q...If you have to integrate the Nations League into qualifying but don't want to give automatic spots to League C/D winners, I suggest the following:<br /><br />Run the Nations League groups in Sept/Oct/Nov. Then go with 14 groups (13 of 4, 1 of 3), play games in March/June/Sept/Oct. 14 group winners advance to a qualifying playoff, top runner-up to a consolation playoff round. <br /><br />Dennishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06422629500867023373noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-15717915446367625522018-09-14T02:58:49.984+02:002018-09-14T02:58:49.984+02:00I agree. It's highly unlikely that there will ...I agree. It's highly unlikely that there will be a group that requires four more dates than all the other. I predict ten groups, but I'd love to see seven groups instead - with top two from each group qualifying minus the worst second place team and no play-offs.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-22163936734372959842018-09-08T19:32:32.072+02:002018-09-08T19:32:32.072+02:00When?
I would give the holder spot back for France...When?<br />I would give the holder spot back for France in 2022. The Winner of 2019 Nations League. Leaving to 53 natons. 10 grop winners and the best places non qualified in 2021 Nations League.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-82227676873606106762018-09-08T17:33:10.458+02:002018-09-08T17:33:10.458+02:00Final decision about 2022 FIFA World Cup Qualifyin...Final decision about 2022 FIFA World Cup Qualifying in UEFA zone will be confirmed by UEFA Executive Committee.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-30178912947572259292018-09-08T09:54:56.111+02:002018-09-08T09:54:56.111+02:00Truthy. I agree. In that presentation you can also...Truthy. I agree. In that presentation you can also better see the inertia of the simulated seeding ranking with the new calculation method. Something like this (but with a better lay-out). I will use both presentations next time, thanks for the feed-back:<br />France - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%<br />Belgium - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%<br />Croatia - Edhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06640136267487836463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-53397303827843784392018-09-08T09:45:16.322+02:002018-09-08T09:45:16.322+02:00This is the scenario then.
Pot 1: Fight between Sw...This is the scenario then.<br />Pot 1: Fight between Sweden and Germany. The loser moves to Pot 2.<br />Pot 2: Three way fight between Romania, Northern Ireland and Republic of Ireland for two spots. Loser to Pot 3.<br />Pot 3: Two from Greece, Montenegro and Czech Republic. Loser to Pot 4.<br />Pot 4: Not much of a fight as two of Greece, Montenegro and Czech Republic are already in Pot 3!Truthynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-85554006810577461532018-09-08T09:33:38.345+02:002018-09-08T09:33:38.345+02:00I feel that the presentation of data is a little m...I feel that the presentation of data is a little misleading. For example, at a first glance, it looks like Ireland has a good chance of making Pot 2. But in reality, Germany or Sweden, whichever doesn't qualify for Pot 1, has a better chance. Ireland would most probably be in Pot 3 and Czech in Pot 4. Maybe, a table with list of Nations as rows and Pot 1 to Pot 6 as columns would better Truthynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-72546182221696340312018-09-08T08:53:59.431+02:002018-09-08T08:53:59.431+02:00Taliholic, a small remark about semantics first: I...Taliholic, a small remark about semantics first: I would call that what you do 'calculating points' instead of 'simulating points' because you don't use predicted results but realised results. But that's just a matter of taste.<br /><br />The I-factors for the tournaments you mentioned are not evident from the documentation FIFA provided. My assumption is that the CONCACAFEdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06640136267487836463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-41217372798834235912018-09-08T08:42:52.936+02:002018-09-08T08:42:52.936+02:00Yes exactly, I have a schedule of future matches, ...Yes exactly, I have a schedule of future matches, predict the result of each scheduled match using Club Elo and treat them as played matches to update the FIFA Elo points and thus the FIFA ranking. The ranking after all scheduled matches are predicted is the July 2019 ranking and the assumption is that that ranking will be used to seed the teams for the draw.<br /><br />The prediction of results Edhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06640136267487836463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-54997337617604390542018-09-07T20:25:00.990+02:002018-09-07T20:25:00.990+02:00I´m simulating the points earned by each team and ...I´m simulating the points earned by each team and their provisional positions in the ranking, AFTER the matches are played. I am also wondering what´s the factor for CONCACAF Nations League Qualifiers. FIFA did not make explicit the factors for the EAST ASIAN qualifiers and SOUTH ASIAN CHampionship.I guess they will be treated as scheduled friendlies (10 points). They appear as friendlies on the talliholichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12152590890929488516noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-64331406586601466152018-09-07T20:12:39.724+02:002018-09-07T20:12:39.724+02:00Hello Ed. So you´re using club elo to predict the ...Hello Ed. So you´re using club elo to predict the results and FIFA´s elo to rank the teams? Because in the end, that´s what you´ll see in July 2019, FIFA teams ranked with FIFA´s new elo system. talliholichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12152590890929488516noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-37450612899333342092018-09-07T16:18:45.220+02:002018-09-07T16:18:45.220+02:00That's right and you know why. The used I-fact...That's right and you know why. The used I-factors for different types of matches in combination with the 600 in the Expected Win-formulae results in an inert ranking, even with these small starting gaps between team ratings.<br /><br />But you tell me: what are the real percentages ? What I definitely don't want to do is assume a schedule for a set of matches with unknown pairings and Edhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06640136267487836463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-16241160692499624222018-09-07T16:06:54.030+02:002018-09-07T16:06:54.030+02:00The current simulation you made doesn't give t...The current simulation you made doesn't give to much information about the real precentages in my opinion, it is more a reflection of the current rankings...Amirhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06469650958512209299noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-4366554404545912002018-09-07T16:04:43.200+02:002018-09-07T16:04:43.200+02:00It's your choice of course, but in term of var...It's your choice of course, but in term of variance, the old FIFA ranking simulation had much bigger variance than simulating the schedule with the current system.Amirhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06469650958512209299noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-37536096100917573752018-09-07T14:02:16.307+02:002018-09-07T14:02:16.307+02:00That's right Amir, I can only include matches ...That's right Amir, I can only include matches in my simulations where both teams are known or both teams can be found using results of earlier matches.<br />So as soon as the draw for the EURO 2020 qualifying has been made (December 2nd this year in Dublin) and the match schedule is published I will include these matches into my simulations.<br /><br />I am able to simulate the draw itself Edhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06640136267487836463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-80950636350354457612018-09-07T13:17:44.376+02:002018-09-07T13:17:44.376+02:00If I understand correctly, the Euro quakifyinh mat...If I understand correctly, the Euro quakifyinh matches aren't included in the simulations.<br />Is that correct?<br />Would you be able to include them in the near future (simulating the Euro Q draw and the scheduling as well of course)Amirhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06469650958512209299noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-29837960923921639722018-09-07T08:50:33.876+02:002018-09-07T08:50:33.876+02:00Well, obviously the quality of the predictions usi...Well, obviously the quality of the predictions using FIFA's elo ratings is not as good as with classic elo's predictions. At the moment classic elo has a prediction success rate of 52,2% starting from June 4th (which is quite low, I've seen prediction-success rates of close to 60% some years ago). FIFA only reaches 30,9% at the moment.<br />Explainable of course because FIFA started Edhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06640136267487836463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-67850714111119167842018-09-07T07:32:22.444+02:002018-09-07T07:32:22.444+02:00I suspect the qualifying might be run in 11 groups...I suspect the qualifying might be run in 11 groups of 5, actually. 11 group winners auto-qualify. UNL League A and B group winners (but not C or D) play-off for the last two berths. Sucks for any league C or D team that finishes 2nd in their group in regular qualifiers behind a powerhouse but whaddayado. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯<br /><br />10 groups is possible but there's no neat system. You either have Timoteusnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-15391935831319600892018-09-07T05:07:16.368+02:002018-09-07T05:07:16.368+02:00Why don't you use a simulation with fifa's...Why don't you use a simulation with fifa's new elo system? It is much simpler than club elo's. I can help you with it. talliholichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12152590890929488516noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-38468339033857602112018-09-06T03:08:22.004+02:002018-09-06T03:08:22.004+02:00It's highly unlikely that there'll be a gr...It's highly unlikely that there'll be a group of 7 teams. That would require 14 qualification dates (same as a group of 8), as opposed to the 10 a group of 6 teams demand. Most likely UEFA will keep the Nations League and have 10 groups of 5 and 6 teams (5 each), similar to the qualification for 2020. 10 group winners will qualify directly and they'll try to persuade FIFA to allow theAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-34684341877555130512018-09-05T22:12:43.725+02:002018-09-05T22:12:43.725+02:00Lets hope that Denmarc can resolve their current i...Lets hope that Denmarc can resolve their current issues and not be fined or even excluded. <br />DewiShecshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17902832877017588050noreply@blogger.com