tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post5339449623601354265..comments2024-05-25T18:23:40.802+02:00Comments on Football rankings: EURO 2016 sims (5 February 2016)Edhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06640136267487836463noreply@blogger.comBlogger25125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-34724767789435432512016-06-17T07:37:50.362+02:002016-06-17T07:37:50.362+02:00No, Marko, sorry. I don't keep the "path&...No, Marko, sorry. I don't keep the "path" to certain simulation outcomes.Edgarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03420252819752301980noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-73046245000046108932016-06-14T10:30:50.813+02:002016-06-14T10:30:50.813+02:00hi edgar,
would it be able for you, to filter out...hi edgar,<br /><br />would it be able for you, to filter out only the runs, that are matching the current results and to have a new estmation on the fourthcoming of excusevely these runs?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08252531939757132708noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-9994103897073673822016-04-01T10:48:50.743+02:002016-04-01T10:48:50.743+02:00Finally found the time to identify a formula based...Finally found the time to identify a formula based on national team matches using polynomial regression (least squares method). The coefficient of determination was higher than that of the clubelo formula, so I'll be using it from now on for simulations.Edgarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03420252819752301980noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-81271913627099329462016-03-23T16:23:33.860+01:002016-03-23T16:23:33.860+01:00Good to know they've suggested taking the same...Good to know they've suggested taking the same approach as me. Thanks for the updateAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-38090649802281675552016-03-18T07:29:13.293+01:002016-03-18T07:29:13.293+01:00When I contacted Lars Schiefler (owner of clubelo....When I contacted Lars Schiefler (owner of clubelo.com) in April 2013 about the formula, I also asked about neutral venue games. This was his answer:<br /><br /><i>good question. At the moment I take team 1 as home team and team 2 as<br />away team and set the home field advantage for that match to 0.<br /><br />This is not optimal as the curves for home and away goals are not symmetrical.<br /><Edgarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03420252819752301980noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-55919486565499957742016-03-15T17:31:52.971+01:002016-03-15T17:31:52.971+01:00T4 = 23.2%
T5 = 76.8%T4 = 23.2%<br />T5 = 76.8%Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-83071346471691737852016-03-15T17:30:45.206+01:002016-03-15T17:30:45.206+01:00For now, I'm just using the mean of the two as...For now, I'm just using the mean of the two as follows:<br /><br />Team A: Elo 1575 Win % 23.2<br />Team B: Elo 1783 Win % 76.8<br /><br />meanA_1:<br /><br />=IF(T4<0.5,0.2+(1.1*(SQRT(T4/0.5))),1.69/(1.12*(SQRT(2-(T4/0.5)))+0.18)) = 0.949<br /><br />meanA_2:<br /><br />=IF(T5<0.8,-0.96+(1/(0.1+(0.44*SQRT((T5+0.1)/0.9)))),0.72*SQRT((1-T5)/0.3)+0.3) = 0.919<br /><br />=average(meanA_1, Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-29839853527943995462016-03-15T17:02:45.312+01:002016-03-15T17:02:45.312+01:00Absolutely no need to apologize. You got a valid p...Absolutely no need to apologize. You got a valid point here.<br /><br />As one would expect the elo win expectancies are completely opposite when changing the order of team1 and team2 (1 - 27,4% =) 72,6%, still the clubelo formula favours the 'home'/first mentioned team slightly with regard to mean scored goals and thus win percentages. Well researched and discovered. Thanks Anonymous !<Edhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06640136267487836463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-87073736328916109252016-03-15T13:43:08.525+01:002016-03-15T13:43:08.525+01:00Thanks Ed, I think that I understand all of that b...Thanks Ed, I think that I understand all of that but are wenot still using different formulae to calculate the meanH and meanA even though the match is played on a neutral field?<br /><br />To use your example, let's start with a scenario where team A has HFA:<br /><br />Team A has an elo of 1368+100=1468<br />Team B has an elo of 1537<br /><br />Therefore Team A win expectancy is 40.2%, as Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-9098094420120716912016-03-14T22:42:49.249+01:002016-03-14T22:42:49.249+01:00The formulas clubelo gives calculate the expected ...The formulas clubelo gives calculate the expected mean of goals scored by the home team (meanH) and the expected mean of goals scored by the away team in a match (meanA).<br />The number of goals the home team scores is poisson distributed with Lambda equal to meanH, so the chance the home team scores 0 goals = meanH^0*EXP^(-meanH)/FAC(0), scores 1 goal = meanH^1*EXP^(-meanH)/FAC(1), scores 2 Edhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06640136267487836463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-4386126714120084482016-03-14T13:07:49.021+01:002016-03-14T13:07:49.021+01:00The link states that the expected number of goals ...The link states that the expected number of goals for each team is:<br /><br />Goals for the Home team:<br />if Proba < 0.5: Home Goals = 0.2 + 1.1*sqrt(Proba/0.5)<br />else: Home Goals = 1.69 / (1.12*sqrt(2 -Proba/0.5)+0.18)<br />Goals for the Away team:<br />if Proba < 0.8: Away goals = -0.96 + 1/(0.1+0.44*sqrt((Proba+0.1)/0.9))<br />else: Away goals = 0.72*sqrt((1 - Proba)/0.3)+0.3<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-51853378183148804462016-03-14T12:24:49.277+01:002016-03-14T12:24:49.277+01:00Thanks a lot Ed & Edgar! I'm sure I'll...Thanks a lot Ed & Edgar! I'm sure I'll be back with more questions once I've had a chance to play around with this. I'm very interested to see how it compares to my model, which, when market lines are applied, should give an indication of where the market deviates from elo. I'm also interested to see which is a better historical predictor of results but one step at a time!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-44168412498653124502016-03-13T10:14:35.788+01:002016-03-13T10:14:35.788+01:00To complicate things, I will answer you :)
The ac...To complicate things, I will answer you :)<br /><br />The actual scorelines are simulated, based on a probability distribution for goals scored for each team in a match (see Edgar's link for an explanation). This probability distribution is dependent on the elo win expectancy for each team in the match. In this elo win expectancy a home field advantage of 100 points is incorporated (see <a Edhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06640136267487836463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-69794427272484901402016-03-11T15:55:26.646+01:002016-03-11T15:55:26.646+01:00Haha oh OK, sorry! How have you amended the formul...Haha oh OK, sorry! How have you amended the formulae for neutral field?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-37198702658247454742016-03-11T15:22:41.389+01:002016-03-11T15:22:41.389+01:00Yes, and yes, and I'm not Ed, although he is a...Yes, and yes, and <a href="http://www.football-rankings.info/2012/09/im-not-dutch-really.html" rel="nofollow">I'm not Ed</a>, although he is a good old chap!Edgarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03420252819752301980noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-58496398683225411062016-03-11T15:13:00.723+01:002016-03-11T15:13:00.723+01:00Thanks Ed - how have you amended those formulae fo...Thanks Ed - how have you amended those formulae for matched played on a neutral field? And have you given France the full benefits of a home field advantage?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-20885966481532321072016-03-11T12:39:46.448+01:002016-03-11T12:39:46.448+01:00Actual scorelines. I've changed the link with ...Actual scorelines. I've changed the link with a working one. The clubelo site has been updated.Edgarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03420252819752301980noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-76575072548894514912016-03-09T18:52:23.603+01:002016-03-09T18:52:23.603+01:00Sorry - when I say overall results, I mean tournam...Sorry - when I say overall results, I mean tournament wins. I'm happy with the win %'s for group games (agreed to market) and the knockout rounds seem reasonable.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-49820804439641061722016-03-09T18:49:37.700+01:002016-03-09T18:49:37.700+01:00Hi,
Are you just simulating a result or actual sc...Hi,<br /><br />Are you just simulating a result or actual scorelines? I've been modelling the Euro's using Poisson to determine probabilities of each result within a game and then a random number to determine the result. 10k sims. The offensive and defensive exG 'power rankings' for each game I have implied based on market odds [goal seeked so that result (not scoreline) for each Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-41175958006126816542016-02-24T15:05:22.894+01:002016-02-24T15:05:22.894+01:00Sounds good.Sounds good.nogomethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05823873287034305449noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-28176440358217985192016-02-24T14:25:38.917+01:002016-02-24T14:25:38.917+01:00As it happens I'm sort of an expert in handlin...As it happens I'm sort of an expert in handling and statistically analyzing big data-sets. I would like to help you in this particular casus.<br />If you like you can send an empty e-mail to Edgar (see his contactpage for his e-mail). He'll forward it to me and then I will contact you. Sorry for the work around, but I rather not give my e-mail address in public.Edhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06640136267487836463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-84495494792751001992016-02-24T10:46:44.854+01:002016-02-24T10:46:44.854+01:00Thanks Ed. I would like to analyse all matchups in...Thanks Ed. I would like to analyse all matchups in a certain league over the last 7 years and see whether some matchups stand out and substantially deviate from what would've normally been expected given the relative strengths of concerned clubs. ClubElo publishes these probabilities for each match going back many years, so these data are not a problem to gather. What is a problem for me, nogomethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05823873287034305449noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-687796651061757652016-02-24T09:43:00.220+01:002016-02-24T09:43:00.220+01:00Hey nogomet, do you wanna try to mathematically pr...Hey nogomet, do you wanna try to mathematically prove an existing match-fixing scheme in 1. HNL :D<br /><br />But serious. What you need is the expected chance that team X wins/draws/loses against team Y, given the strength of both teams at the moment the match is played. The simplest indicator for this chance is the win-expectancy calculated with the elo-ratings of teams. For NT-football you Edhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06640136267487836463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-22701352365263275092016-02-22T21:09:07.909+01:002016-02-22T21:09:07.909+01:00I have a question that is not connected to this po...I have a question that is not connected to this post, but I don't know where else to ask.<br /><br />So I was wondering if Ed, Edgar and you other guys could help me. There is a club X that for 6-7 years has had unusually bad performance against club Y in a national league. I'm talking about 0W 1D 15L type of performance. Club Y is of much better quality than club X, but X is still in thenogomethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05823873287034305449noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-69092654622781456312016-02-09T02:12:45.941+01:002016-02-09T02:12:45.941+01:00Very interesting! Thanks for sharing.
I'm not...Very interesting! Thanks for sharing.<br /><br />I'm not sure I agree with England being 4th favorites, as the case can be made that Italy, Belgium, and Portugal are all better teams. But of course the luck of the draw & knockout round bracket structure play a huge role in this.<br /><br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12988952483581582102noreply@blogger.com