tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post6264800574225164679..comments2020-09-21T07:35:49.353+02:00Comments on Football rankings: FIFA to seed ALL the teams using October rankingEdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06640136267487836463noreply@blogger.comBlogger53125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-26411519564407211562017-10-11T22:53:39.605+02:002017-10-11T22:53:39.605+02:00As an Asian happy to see IRAN (An asian team) in p...As an Asian happy to see IRAN (An asian team) in pot 3. I hope they get to the next round. They have gotten a very concrete defense over the last few years. They play with Italian football style "Catanaccio".Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-11954479168186676432017-10-09T12:04:07.646+02:002017-10-09T12:04:07.646+02:00A shot in the dark here...
What if FIFA used two ...A shot in the dark here...<br /><br />What if FIFA used two separate calculations, the one used now and another excluding friendly matches, and ranked the teams according to the higher result for each team...<br /><br />Bigger teams would then not be penalized for playing friendlies.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-81173990106140576592017-09-28T22:45:57.534+02:002017-09-28T22:45:57.534+02:00Especially Senegal/South Africa, whose last 2 matc...Especially Senegal/South Africa, whose last 2 matches wonâ€™t be included due to the make-up game. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-31639506260323602062017-09-24T10:07:42.467+02:002017-09-24T10:07:42.467+02:00Hello Ed,
Your analysis is quite amazing. You cl...Hello Ed, <br /><br />Your analysis is quite amazing. You clarified and addressed all the points that I wondered about regarding the fairness in comparison between different teams from different confedrations. I can finally agree with you now that the FIFA ranking with its current way of calculation is the most (available) fair way to be considered before the December 1st draw. I strongly agree Egyptian Fanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12518512923699356524noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-35613335474410435202017-09-23T20:49:57.237+02:002017-09-23T20:49:57.237+02:00Then the Strength factor T. Calculated simply as T...Then the Strength factor T. Calculated simply as T = 200 - R, where R is the ranking position of the opponent. Two exceptions: T can't get lower than 50 and if R = 1 than T = 200.<br />Here's per confederation the average T-factor for the top-10 teams per match type (weight 1 - 2.5 - 3 - 4)<br />CONMEBOL - 156 - 173 - 165 - 182<br />UEFA____ - 162 - 130 - 178 - 180<br />CONCACAF - 140 - Edhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06640136267487836463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-75712719409450696452017-09-23T20:49:15.003+02:002017-09-23T20:49:15.003+02:00So here's the other part of the analysis of wh...So here's the other part of the analysis of what is good and what is bad about FIFA's way of calculating their ranking. I had researched the Importance factor earlier. Besides the match results (the M-factor) there remain two other factors: the Confederation factor (C) and the Strength factor (T).<br /><br />First the Confederation factor C. <br />It's a fact that a team plays most ofEdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06640136267487836463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-19459265121353857342017-09-22T11:25:02.986+02:002017-09-22T11:25:02.986+02:00The FIFA prognosis tool calculates the points for ...The FIFA prognosis tool calculates the points for October 16th.Edhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06640136267487836463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-72130523039806859522017-09-22T07:59:11.732+02:002017-09-22T07:59:11.732+02:00Is the FIFA prognosis tool computation reflecting ...Is the FIFA prognosis tool computation reflecting October 16 or October 19?<br />Mohamedhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01976347360891463334noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-35705403662871471012017-09-20T05:25:54.241+02:002017-09-20T05:25:54.241+02:00The main problem with the current system is play f...The main problem with the current system is play fewer matches bring you higher points. They rate not losing much higher than losing a match. Fewer matches you play, more valuable a win is.<br /><br />Logically, a win must always worth a win and a lose must always worth a lose<br /><br />I think it's not a problem to have a nation earn many points for playing against weaker sides, because Fauzan Naufanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13477336717391963926noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-29002696296196524632017-09-20T03:17:13.679+02:002017-09-20T03:17:13.679+02:00I think I preferred the days when FIFA decided the...I think I preferred the days when FIFA decided their top seeds and then simply invented a formula to suit their choice. Granted that's not perfect, but a system that can be manipulated by NOT choosing to play football at all is even worse in my opinion. In what universe can the likes of Poland & Switzerland be ranked higher than Spain & France?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-73619550892877702992017-09-20T01:55:00.093+02:002017-09-20T01:55:00.093+02:00I think one of the biggest problem is that FIFA do...I think one of the biggest problem is that FIFA don't use weights at all when calculating the average, but instead simply multiplying the score by importance factor and then dividing by the number of matches.<br />If there was no importance factor, and the average was weighted, that is sum the weight*points and divide by total number of weights, the results would be much better.<br />Amirhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06469650958512209299noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-70221035018561221792017-09-20T01:01:47.937+02:002017-09-20T01:01:47.937+02:00But then, how would losses affect the team's p...But then, how would losses affect the team's points? Would the team simply get no points from the matches it loses? It would then make no difference if the team loses a match or doesn't play at all. And teams could apply such a strategy: arrange many friendlies (preferably against weaker opponents), gain points when they win or draw, and not be afraid of losing because there will always Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-71392026793306610272017-09-19T14:46:44.232+02:002017-09-19T14:46:44.232+02:00Mate, have you wrote about using total instead of ...Mate, have you wrote about using total instead of average in calculating FIFA rankings? I try to calculate using total points for top 10 team in latest ranking (rounded)<br /><br />1. Germany 23487 (#1 in real rank)<br />2. Chile 19713 (#9)<br />3. Portugal 19605 (#3)<br />4. Brazil 19105 (#2)<br />5. Argentina 17432 (#4)<br />6. France 16024 (#8)<br />7. Colombia 15001 (#10)<br />8. Belgium Fauzan Naufannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-78143681339740272562017-09-19T00:26:22.003+02:002017-09-19T00:26:22.003+02:00Thanks Ed. I will wait your analysis. We might dis...Thanks Ed. I will wait your analysis. We might disagree but it's always nice to have such discussions. Egyptian Fanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12518512923699356524noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-75337001615973993992017-09-18T08:50:06.179+02:002017-09-18T08:50:06.179+02:00I thought the ranking was originally build just to...I thought the ranking was originally build just to make it possible to compare teams from different continents, based on one calculation method :)<br /><br />Indeed one has to consider all factors in the calculation besides the results of matches:<br />- the confederation weights are indeed a factor to consider. But these weights don't come falling out of the sky. They are established on Edhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06640136267487836463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-7557535962318270152017-09-18T06:38:35.875+02:002017-09-18T06:38:35.875+02:00That's an amazing analysis Ed. The discussion ...That's an amazing analysis Ed. The discussion with you is interesting as you provide your point of view with numerical examples based on detailed and sophisticated analyses. Your current analysis shows the average number of games for the top 10 teams in each confederation over the 4 years cycle as well as the latest two years. However, It is only taking into the account the importance factor Egyptian Fanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12518512923699356524noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-24156986675314236432017-09-17T21:58:49.363+02:002017-09-17T21:58:49.363+02:00Well Fan, to make a fair comparison I've once ...Well Fan, to make a fair comparison I've once again counted the number of matches for all teams in each of the categories friendly (1), qualifier (2.5), continental final+Confed Cup (3) and World Cup (4) counting for the September 2017 ranking, so over the last 4 years. <br />Presented are the averages over the top-10 teams from each confederation. This top 10 consists per confederation of Edhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06640136267487836463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-41900954070006745392017-09-17T18:46:35.944+02:002017-09-17T18:46:35.944+02:00So that means that October 16th is not different t...So that means that October 16th is not different than October 19th regarding the European playoffs or the Pot 1 in the world cup draw. This is all what FIFA care about. FIFA don't care about the fairness in the other pots at all. A team like Senegal will still have two uncounted qualifiers games in November. <br /><br />Also It's totally unfair to Africa and all other continents to make Egyptian Fanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12518512923699356524noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-76421962531642630462017-09-17T17:11:24.393+02:002017-09-17T17:11:24.393+02:00The draw will almost for sure begin from Pot 1 - t...The draw will almost for sure begin from Pot 1 - the special coloured ball with Russia will be taken at first and 7 top teams will go to Group B-H to ensure that we have 1 team in each group at the begining. For the remaining pots I expect one of 2 scenarios: Pot 4 -> Pot 3 -> Pot 2 or Pot 2 -> Pot 3 -> Pot 4. The first option gives more emotions for funs so it is more possible.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13729954195358576537noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-66466345144520990712017-09-17T16:14:13.038+02:002017-09-17T16:14:13.038+02:00Some further research indicates that from the team...Some further research indicates that from the teams that can still qualify for the World Cup only the African teams will have different FIFA-points because of the new publishing date.Edhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06640136267487836463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-21559185950812952222017-09-17T09:54:02.469+02:002017-09-17T09:54:02.469+02:00You're right Fan, the calculation of FIFA-poin...You're right Fan, the calculation of FIFA-points certainly depends on the publishing date, because, as you indicated, it determines the weights of each match played around the publishing date but in previous years. And because the seeding of all teams is now according to the ranking a difference of just a few FIFA-points could eventually seed a team in another pot. <br />I don't have Edhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06640136267487836463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-33733514522539120672017-09-17T09:26:02.762+02:002017-09-17T09:26:02.762+02:00Iran/Egypt/Tunesia will be in pot 3 and must play ...Iran/Egypt/Tunesia will be in pot 3 and must play with African/ Asian teams from pot 4 (od Serbia). So, in 2 or 3 groups African and Asian teams will have to play rach otherAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-82949999524487127722017-09-17T08:13:57.339+02:002017-09-17T08:13:57.339+02:00I agree the 4 seeded pots method is probably bette...I agree the 4 seeded pots method is probably better for evening out the groups, in the example you have provided African and Asian teams couldn't play each other if they were in the same pot and now they could which is much fairer.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-89559757556885517722017-09-17T08:05:01.330+02:002017-09-17T08:05:01.330+02:00I agree that makes the most sense, my question is ...I agree that makes the most sense, my question is would the draw start with Pot 1 and proceed to Pot 4 (in which case the last of the Europe teams would get allocated to a Group), or would the draw start with Pot 4 and proceed to Pot 1 (in which case the last of the Europe seeds would get allocated to a Group).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-40815036315885640642017-09-17T07:56:45.083+02:002017-09-17T07:56:45.083+02:00I guess the potential problem is where that system...I guess the potential problem is where that system could have teams trying to draw or lose in order to get a lower seeding<br /><br />I think using a ranking system is reasonable but there are obviously flaws in the ranking system which could be improved.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com