tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post6672256601567322894..comments2024-03-28T17:34:31.597+01:00Comments on Football rankings: UEFA Nations League 2020 simulations (October 2020)Edhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06640136267487836463noreply@blogger.comBlogger25125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-64261565308943442332020-11-26T08:04:06.563+01:002020-11-26T08:04:06.563+01:00I couldn't have said it better :DI couldn't have said it better :DEdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06640136267487836463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-51634476635359936932020-11-25T19:05:48.960+01:002020-11-25T19:05:48.960+01:00Even old "Ed" - Eduard/Edgar - couldn...Even old "Ed" - Eduard/Edgar - couldn't have sorted that out for them...unclerbhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07644521412619652128noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-56814377883688606022020-11-19T16:53:09.812+01:002020-11-19T16:53:09.812+01:00It means ROU has points for winning against NOR fo...It means ROU has points for winning against NOR for free. It is not fair.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-91594436879732455262020-11-19T16:02:40.175+01:002020-11-19T16:02:40.175+01:00The current FIFA November ranking for UEFA teams a...The current FIFA November ranking for UEFA teams after MD6 of the UNL:<br /><br />pos team points diff MD6<br />1 Belgium 1777 3<br />2 France 1755 5<br />3 England 1670 4<br />4 Portugal 1662 7<br />5 Spain 1645 7<br />6 Italy 1625 5<br />7 Croatia 1617 -7<br />8 Denmark 1616 -3<br />9 Germany 1610 -7<br />10 Netherlands 1609 7<br />---------------Edhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06640136267487836463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-81206162388218434362020-11-19T10:52:26.059+01:002020-11-19T10:52:26.059+01:00SVK, ROU, RUS, IRL - 2 of them are in pot 2, which...SVK, ROU, RUS, IRL - 2 of them are in pot 2, which ones?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-79958232661099330312020-11-19T10:31:22.171+01:002020-11-19T10:31:22.171+01:00Finland winning in France was basically that 1.32%...Finland winning in France was basically that 1.32% chance that materialized. In the end, it was 1 point that separated Finland and BIH. Incredible, but true.nogomethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05823873287034305449noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-74006500445342264682020-11-19T10:21:47.456+01:002020-11-19T10:21:47.456+01:00Bosnia in pot 4. Unbelievable but true.Bosnia in pot 4. Unbelievable but true.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-49224927128220055012020-11-15T13:17:04.916+01:002020-11-15T13:17:04.916+01:00The penalty shoot out win and qualification was fa...The penalty shoot out win and qualification was fantastic just a slight shame Scotland didn't hold on for the win in 90 minutes for the shot at UEFA WCQ pot 2 with Rep Ireland continuing to struggleDanielFergushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13929801355867548842noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-17785398708759016992020-11-15T13:15:36.440+01:002020-11-15T13:15:36.440+01:00This comment has been removed by the author.DanielFergushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13929801355867548842noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-4866869495950277322020-11-14T23:32:51.984+01:002020-11-14T23:32:51.984+01:00I mean, if they beat Bosnia then the final match a...I mean, if they beat Bosnia then the final match against Poland doesn’t matter any more. They can then even afford to lose to Poland.Homerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11346782643859833624noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-78862445821392629702020-11-14T23:30:27.337+01:002020-11-14T23:30:27.337+01:00After Switzerland’s draw with Spain, the Netverlan...After Switzerland’s draw with Spain, the Netverlands now only need to win against Bosnia to secure the 10th spot. Even draws against Bosnia at home and Poland away will be enough also no matter what the result is between Switzerland and Ukraine in their match.Homerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11346782643859833624noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-58383829539997147582020-11-12T09:49:37.654+01:002020-11-12T09:49:37.654+01:00Greece actually needs one more point than Finland ...Greece actually needs one more point than Finland in the 2 remaining matches, but their schedule is a bit easier.Amirhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06469650958512209299noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-72202298658602882502020-11-12T08:27:31.929+01:002020-11-12T08:27:31.929+01:00Yes, their chance to reach pot 3 rises from 25% to...Yes, their chance to reach pot 3 rises from 25% to 45%. Still trailing Greece, but now it's almost a coin's toss between the two. A good and important win by the Fins !Edhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06640136267487836463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-14877332547810490302020-11-12T01:05:57.413+01:002020-11-12T01:05:57.413+01:00Finland won France today. Does that make a signifi...Finland won France today. Does that make a significant difference on their probability to make pot?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-32110742004025917912020-10-23T10:36:34.144+02:002020-10-23T10:36:34.144+02:00FIFA published regulations on the shape of UEFA Wo...FIFA published regulations on the shape of UEFA World Cup qualifying play-offs:<br />https://resources.fifa.com/image/upload/regulatory-articles-for-eq-20-22-play-offs.pdf?cloudid=teq6xtba5j54gogrcemoAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-17887429504849227032020-10-23T08:13:38.196+02:002020-10-23T08:13:38.196+02:00And here is the confirmation that they are wrong :...And <a href="https://www.fifa.com/worldcup/news/uefa-preliminary-draw-for-fifa-world-cup-2022tm-to-take-centre-stage-on-7-decemb" rel="nofollow">here</a> is the confirmation that they are wrong :)Edhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06640136267487836463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-70824658444102989622020-10-19T21:57:39.961+02:002020-10-19T21:57:39.961+02:00I think likely the interesting way this analysis c...I think likely the interesting way this analysis could come into play would revolve around a return to fans in stadiums (realistically what... Summer '21 absolute best case?), during the middle of a large group stage (most WC Qualifiers) and then having a lopsided stage where certain matches had no fans, and the return leg had fans. Obviously no way to really avoid this scheduling bias, dopeislandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17606692867466284723noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-35028707661479957622020-10-19T21:49:18.131+02:002020-10-19T21:49:18.131+02:00I made a quick analysis: regarding all matches pla...I made a quick analysis: regarding all matches played in September and October (N = 185) I found an optimal prediction success rate at a 75% reduced HFA. This leads to a 6% improvement of the prediction success rate.<br /><br />Using a 75% reduced HFA I simulated all November matches again. In the results you see some 6 percent-point lower probabilities for the home teams to win in the EURO 2021 Edhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06640136267487836463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-23392895739088644202020-10-19T17:10:42.373+02:002020-10-19T17:10:42.373+02:00Interesting question, Alex. Above simulations are ...Interesting question, Alex. Above simulations are with HFA completely included like normal. I see that the prediction success rate of elo predictions with HFA included the last two months is significantly lower than normal (when it is close to 60%). These last two months the success rate is only around 50%, so that may certainly be an indication that HFA should be lowered, but by how much ? I Edhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06640136267487836463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-23855007791028754252020-10-19T16:33:21.755+02:002020-10-19T16:33:21.755+02:00Have you looked into backing off homefield adv for...Have you looked into backing off homefield adv for games played without fans? I think 538 is discounting like 60% of home field for games playing in empty stadiums, but i'm sure thats relatively arbitrarydopeislandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17606692867466284723noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-82615491068424852992020-10-17T17:08:12.179+02:002020-10-17T17:08:12.179+02:00I just look at the FIFA regulations for the past e...I just look at the FIFA regulations for the past editions of World Cup qualifying, how the actual seeding was done in those editions and the current regulations for qualifying which are not altered in this aspect. They still describe only one adamant rule regarding seeding: seeding of teams in a confederation for World Cup qualification must be based on the FIFA ranking.<br />So for me there is Edhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06640136267487836463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-56174302018821579172020-10-17T11:16:51.510+02:002020-10-17T11:16:51.510+02:00It wouldn't be the first time the Dutch press ...It wouldn't be the first time the Dutch press and TV have it wrong, but they report regularly that the first 10 teams in the final ranking of the 2020/21 UEFA Nations League will be used to determine the seeds for the World Cup qualifying and not the FIFA ranking. I don't know where they got this information but the best information I can find is that FIFA still have to confirm UEFA'sHomerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11346782643859833624noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-65314438511444538002020-10-15T22:38:26.820+02:002020-10-15T22:38:26.820+02:00Thanks. Yeah, three wins does look necessary for p...Thanks. Yeah, three wins does look necessary for pot 2 unfortunately.Jnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-58686599622750703342020-10-15T22:10:34.853+02:002020-10-15T22:10:34.853+02:00J, I don't know the exact probabilities. I can...J, I don't know the exact probabilities. I can't set certain future match results to fixed values in my simulation. <br />What I can calculate is that Scotland with 2 wins and a draw has 1465 points in November and then you are only 2 points behind Republic of Ireland which is the 20th UEFA-team in November (so last in pot 2) when all other scheduled match results go according to elo.<br Edhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06640136267487836463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-39911453861213206362020-10-15T21:07:13.251+02:002020-10-15T21:07:13.251+02:00Do you know the percentage chance of Scotland reac...Do you know the percentage chance of Scotland reaching pot 2 if they win in Serbia (not on penalties), draw with Slovakia and then beat Israel? Also the percentage chance of pot 2 if Scotland won all three games if possible.<br /><br />Thanks.Jnoreply@blogger.com