tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post6858109306094974110..comments2024-03-28T17:34:31.597+01:00Comments on Football rankings: Simulation of scheduled football matchesEdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06640136267487836463noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-165858177968098132022-03-17T11:03:43.232+01:002022-03-17T11:03:43.232+01:00Assume you have a one-off play-off match in the si...Assume you have a one-off play-off match in the simulation. The result of the match is drawn from the probability distribution functions: the number of goals scored by the home team and the number of goals scored by the away team is determined.<br />If those numbers are the same then the end result of the match is a draw. So this draw is reached after extra time (if that's played in the matchEdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06640136267487836463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-14920164292934888242022-03-14T19:59:20.593+01:002022-03-14T19:59:20.593+01:00Question - how are 30-minute extra time and penalt...Question - how are 30-minute extra time and penalty shootouts considered?NMhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03659059863097685724noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-33235649829215210962021-04-29T11:32:43.987+02:002021-04-29T11:32:43.987+02:00Next stage would be to calculate your own ELO rati...Next stage would be to calculate your own ELO ratings, that maximize predictabity given your dataset :)<br />Amirhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06469650958512209299noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-31293843440797943222021-04-29T01:37:02.266+02:002021-04-29T01:37:02.266+02:00I've just now saw this - amazing work!I've just now saw this - amazing work!Amirhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06469650958512209299noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-32801230046480934562021-01-31T11:32:25.558+01:002021-01-31T11:32:25.558+01:00hi. great work. thankshi. great work. thanksAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-32014561333603701432021-01-22T02:01:04.397+01:002021-01-22T02:01:04.397+01:00Great- thanks so muchGreat- thanks so muchdopeislandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17606692867466284723noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-16267516026011220932021-01-19T08:10:07.930+01:002021-01-19T08:10:07.930+01:00Alex, no that's not correct. I should have emp...Alex, no that's not correct. I should have emphasized this more in the paragraph Data research and results. <br />To be absolutely clear: for non-neutral matches the We is always the win expectancy for the home playing team, the team that plays at a venue in their home country (and you understand that's not always the same as the first mentioned team in a match).<br />Only for neutral Edhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06640136267487836463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-21577122270313875042021-01-18T20:44:01.240+01:002021-01-18T20:44:01.240+01:00Ed- this is probably a dumb question, but for the ...Ed- this is probably a dumb question, but for the non-neutral matches, the We for the away team refers to the away teams We, correct? (That is, 1 minus the home teams We)?dopeislandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17606692867466284723noreply@blogger.com