Comments on Football rankings: 2010 World Cup: Seeding formula based on current s...

Greetings all. On the previous WC2006. keeping eur...

2009-11-21T03:21:47.849+02:00

Greetings all.
On the previous WC2006. keeping european teams appart was done somewhat differently.
It involved that one european team had to be put into a special pot and drawed first in one of the Groups. (in that case it turned out to be then Serbia&Montenegro, as the lowest ranking euro team). This meant that this team would guaranteedly face Argentina or Mexico as a top seed in

Yes Sancho you are right, that is the way it worke...

2009-11-19T23:12:04.400+02:00

Yes Sancho you are right, that is the way it worked in 2006. But i hope they do not use the same formula again after all critisism it generated.
I´m not sure. But i think FIFA might use another formula this time. That depends how much they care for Argentina.

Henrik, It's not a matter of who's better...

2009-11-19T18:48:37.857+02:00

Henrik,

It's not a matter of who's better right now, but who is better considering this and the past two years rankings (Dec.'07, Dec.'08 and Dec.'09), and the last two World Cup (2002 and 2006).

At least, that's how it worked in 2006. But it still can change.

My point is that Argentina have not earned a seedi...

2009-11-19T17:13:05.377+02:00

My point is that Argentina have not earned a seeding spot.
This i s why: Tomorrow FIFA will publish the november ranking whinch will have Spain ranked as number 1. You will see Porugal, France and Argentina in following order:
6:th Portugal (maybee even 5:th)
7:th France
8:th Argentina
Thats how good the teams are right now!
ANd in teh past World cups we have the

Çan someone explain to me why Netherlands wil not ...

2009-11-19T14:35:28.123+02:00

Çan someone explain to me why Netherlands wil not be a seeded team. They are curently third in FIFA rankings

Because it also matters how they performed in former World cups. In 2006 the Netherlands lost in the last 16 and in 2002 they didn't even qualify.

FIFA necer decided who seeds before knowing all th...

2009-11-19T14:17:49.619+02:00

FIFA necer decided who seeds before knowing all the teams. So, in theory, Netherland still has a shot.

Çan someone explain to me why Netherlands wil not ...

2009-11-19T04:53:54.162+02:00

Çan someone explain to me why Netherlands wil not be a seeded team. They are curently third in FIFA rankings

Edgar i´ve examined the possibilites of alternativ...

2009-11-18T13:49:53.234+02:00

Edgar i´ve examined the possibilites of alternative seeding methods. And my conclusion is that the only way Argentina will be among the 7 best is if FIFA hold on to the wc2006 seeding formula! And that is too bad i think. Fist of all i think it is a bad seeding formula because it ranks the results of 2007 and 2008 higher thean the 2009 results.
But now i think it is very possible that FIFA

As I mentioned in the first paragraph of this post...

2009-11-18T08:58:39.159+02:00

As I mentioned in the first paragraph of this post, I use the 2006 World Cup seeding formula and draw setup. FIFA haven't announced the draw procedure yet. It will most likely happen after the December FIFA EXCO meeting - around December 2nd.

@Sancho

Good points about the politics. FIFA might indeed group CAF and CONCACAF.

@Anonymous (Marca)

Anonymus, "My understanding is that pot 2...

2009-11-17T22:05:57.995+02:00
Anonymus,

"My understanding is that pot 2 (the european pot) gets assigned from left to right (A-H), in the order in which the countries are drawn."

That's exactly what I've tried to say. I'm sorry I wasn't clear enough.

"...another "1" position going to the world champion (ITA), as was done in 2006."

Sancho, I would agree with what you say regarding ...

2009-11-17T20:19:02.532+02:00
Sancho,
I would agree with what you say regarding pot #1. More than likely the seeded countries are SAF, ARG, BRA, ESP, GER, ITA, ENG, FRA. with A1 going to the host (SAF) and F1, or another "1" position going to the world champion (ITA), as was done in 2006. I'm not so sure about pot #2, however. My understanding is that pot 2 (the european pot) gets assigned from left to

We all will know next week, but, thinking about th...

2009-11-17T16:45:52.573+02:00
We all will know next week, but, thinking about the draw procedures, it's possible that FIFA will organize it as follows:

First Round (Pot 1 - seeded - SAF, ARG, BRA, ESP, GER, ITA, ENG and FRA)

Group A - South Africa;

The open match is A1:A2 and played by the hosts.

Group B - 1st European;
Group C - 2nd European;
Group D -

James, I'm a South American myself -Brazilian...

2009-11-17T15:33:35.712+02:00
James,

I'm a South American myself -Brazilian- and I've watched closely both qualifying from the Americas. In my humbled opinion, Paraguay is a better team than Mexico and US. Also, Chile and Uruguay are better than Honduras.

Besides the fact that the N.American giants are better than Bielsa's Chile and Tabarez's Uruguay, the odds favours South Africa better

Anonymus, Pots 1 and 2 depend on who is in. In Po...

2009-11-17T15:17:23.680+02:00
Anonymus,

Pots 1 and 2 depend on who is in. In Pot 1 will be the seeded teams, and in Pot 2 the UEFA's.

FIFA didn't announce the draw procedures yet.

Pot 3 (AFC + OFC + CONCACAF): Pot 4 (CAF + rest o...

2009-11-17T12:45:06.168+02:00
Pot 3 (AFC + OFC + CONCACAF):
Pot 4 (CAF + rest of CONMEBOL):

I am redaing your comments, guys, and as I understand Pot3 and Pot4 are only consideration of Edgar? Right? FIFA hasn't announced anything for sure, right?

And what about Pot1 and Pot2. Will these pots be for 100% such as Edgar has put?

Sancho, I love the theory but surely the risk is t...

2009-11-17T09:36:45.463+02:00
Sancho, I love the theory but surely the risk is that they have a 66% chance of being drawn with US or Mexico, who are both arguably stronger than the CONMEBOL teams.

Although I guess a 33% chance of Honduras is better than the certainty of facing a South American team for the hosts.

Based on strength of conferdation my gut feeling is they'll put CAF with CONMEBOL and

Edgar, Can you explain the logic behind grouping ...

2009-11-17T04:10:13.634+02:00
Edgar,

Can you explain the logic behind grouping CONCACAF with AFC/OFC vs. CAF? It seems the thinking is that the three remaining CONMEBOL teams are stronger than the three CONCACAF teams. However, in your November probable ranking, USA outrank Uruguay (by 27 points) and Mexico outrank Chile (28), while Honduras trial Parguay (-48). Seems to slightly favor CONCACAF as the stronger

Re Adam If they keep the system, there is a secon...

2009-11-17T01:36:37.414+02:00
Re Adam

If they keep the system, there is a second pot for each group with three balls: 2, 3 and 4.

The teams goes for groups in order A-H, unless are regional restrictions (there cannot be 3 europeans, or 2 from the other confederations, in the same group), then the numbers are sorted.

Is a team's group number determined by the pot...

2009-11-17T01:13:58.278+02:00
Is a team's group number determined by the pot they are drawn from? Example, USA are drawn into Group E from pot 3: will they then be the E3 team playing in match 25 or are the group numbers drawn separately?

My Spanish is terrible, so can anybody explain me:...

2009-11-17T00:30:37.203+02:00
My Spanish is terrible, so can anybody explain me:

http://www.marca.com/2009/11/16/futbol/seleccion/1258385669.html

1) Why the rank Netherlands ahead of Portugal
2) What source they use

Thanks

It is interesting to look at which teams have reac...

2009-11-17T00:20:51.918+02:00
It is interesting to look at which teams have reached at least the Quarterfinals over the last few World Cups, and then compare these to this Ranking.

Using the last 4 World Cups (the last 5 World Cups produce the same results), there are only 8 teams that have reached the Quarterfinals at least twice. Seven of these 8 have reached the Quarterfinals in at least one of the last 2 World

I think FIFA will put CAF and CONCACAF together, a...

2009-11-16T18:45:20.750+02:00
I think FIFA will put CAF and CONCACAF together, and pray Honduras to be drawn with the hosts.

AFC, OFC and CONMEBOL would be in the other pot.

I believe it isn't the most balanced distribution, but the problem here is getting the easiest path as possible to South Africa; and the best way is pairing Africa-N.America.

If I'm right, that would give Honduras

Thank you!

2009-11-16T16:39:23.410+02:00
Thank you!

No, that can't happen. A team will be drawn fr...

2009-11-16T16:37:57.967+02:00
No, that can't happen. A team will be drawn from each pot, so two teams from the same pot can't be drawn in the same group.

Each group will have one team from Pot 1, one from Pot 2, one from Pot 3 and one from Pot 4.

And for example Russia and Slovakia be in one grou...

2009-11-16T16:34:24.479+02:00
And for example Russia and Slovakia be in one group, if from the 1st pot will be non european country?