tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post9096225659262817585..comments2024-03-18T00:03:11.385+01:00Comments on Football rankings: AFC qualification World Cup 2022 (May 2021)Edhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06640136267487836463noreply@blogger.comBlogger21125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-65429541155254739292021-07-12T20:12:11.895+02:002021-07-12T20:12:11.895+02:00I look forward to seeing the probabilities for the...I look forward to seeing the probabilities for the next stage of AFC WCQ.tedhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05873166804044629576noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-4998099681148548682021-07-12T20:10:56.585+02:002021-07-12T20:10:56.585+02:00Lebanon were lucky but Tajikistan were not unlucky...Lebanon were lucky but Tajikistan were not unlucky.<br /><br />If North Korea had stayed in most likely they would have been in the top 12 (13).tedhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05873166804044629576noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-81908632319573796932021-06-19T00:18:18.380+02:002021-06-19T00:18:18.380+02:00UEFA playoffs will be specific because there is a ...UEFA playoffs will be specific because there is a single leg. Every team have to fight for a home ground. It is logical to that fight must be result of the group stage rather than points earned in tournaments not related with this World Cup.<br />However, such seeding should be applied everywhere. Syria was too much in front of China in the same second stage group of AFC qualifiers. Now China ismickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06921225388004754820noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-3015539915660118632021-06-18T02:38:55.908+02:002021-06-18T02:38:55.908+02:00Does anyone else think Lebanon were very lucky to ...Does anyone else think Lebanon were very lucky to make it through and only did because of North Korea's withdrawal and all their results being nullified? Tajikistan in particular must feel a bit aggrieved about this.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-4231305631677253652021-06-17T08:23:14.978+02:002021-06-17T08:23:14.978+02:00Matt, I see that the draw for the third Asian qual...Matt, I see that the draw for the third Asian qualification round will be on July 1st and that indeed they will use the current FIFA ranking (dated June 18th) for Asian teams. Here are the pots for that draw with in brackets the current FIFA points for each team:<br /><br />pot 1: Japan (1529), Iran (1522)<br />pot 2: Australia (1477), Korea Republic (1475)<br />pot 3: Saudi Arabia (1386), UnitedEdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18129737197244852246noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-22409755488307785892021-06-17T02:49:41.980+02:002021-06-17T02:49:41.980+02:00There will be a special release of the FIFA Ranki...There will be a special release of the FIFA Rankings for Asian teams on June 18, 2021, according to the AFC. This will determine the pots for the next round. Are you going to do a preview for this now the last match day for round 2 is finished? Cheers, MATT.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15815833268125347740noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-81708749880705194592021-06-14T12:44:21.754+02:002021-06-14T12:44:21.754+02:00Mick, you are right, I forgot this exception UEFA ...Mick, you are right, I forgot this exception UEFA has apparently got confirmed by FIFA to use a qualification ranking instead of the FIFA ranking for seeding. <br />This is against the main seeding principle FIFA stipulates in their regulations over and over again: for seeding the FIFA ranking must be used.<br />Maybe this case is used now as a precedent for other confederations to divert more Edhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18129737197244852246noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-89876952380717501882021-06-12T23:19:28.414+02:002021-06-12T23:19:28.414+02:00Hi Ed!
Seedings for uefa playoffs will be based on...Hi Ed!<br />Seedings for uefa playoffs will be based on the group stage record, not fifa ranking. I hope they will apply the same rule for afc third round it is completely unfair that ruuner up from the second stage will be seeded before any group winner. Remember shameful seeding for world cup 2014 between japan and uzbekistan.mickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06921225388004754820noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-77288995536852894712021-06-09T17:55:27.640+02:002021-06-09T17:55:27.640+02:00India has 1183,53 after the loss to Qatar and the ...India has 1183,53 after the loss to Qatar and the win over Bangladesh. A win over Afghanistan delivers 9,4 pts to a total of 1192,91. A draw costs 3,1 pts (to 1180,41) and a loss costs 15,6 pts (to 1167,91).Edhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18129737197244852246noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-76798369550555906562021-06-09T13:04:40.710+02:002021-06-09T13:04:40.710+02:00I mean total fifa ranking points after those two w...I mean total fifa ranking points after those two winsAbhishekhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15568562044731867627noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-66760716609276441862021-06-09T13:02:24.443+02:002021-06-09T13:02:24.443+02:00India currently have 1184.36 points. They have los...India currently have 1184.36 points. They have lost to qatar. Won against bangladesh. One match left ie Afghanistan. Can you kindly tell what will be india's total points after the match against afghanistan if they win against afghanistan also??Abhishekhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15568562044731867627noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-79775188439465140422021-06-06T09:46:31.979+02:002021-06-06T09:46:31.979+02:00Sorry to take so long to respond, but I was very b...Sorry to take so long to respond, but I was very busy this week and wanted to research this first properly.<br /><br />But you are all absolutety right, guys. The table for group runners-up wasn't determined correctly. My apologies.<br />Above you will find the results of new simulations, including the two matches in group H of June 5th as played and the group D match simulated.Edhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18129737197244852246noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-43642716271448317552021-06-05T09:56:34.645+02:002021-06-05T09:56:34.645+02:00I agree with the comment above.. Should Lebanon wi...I agree with the comment above.. Should Lebanon win against SriLanka and Turkmenistan they will reach 13 pts .. that's tally is more than enough to guarantee a place between the best 4 (or 5) runners up.. I wonder whether there is a mistake in your simulation Ed.. I guess you're ignoring Lebanon's results against SriLanka in your simulation while in fact in Group H no matches are to Jeanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16010385647868424772noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-77926121873273357922021-06-05T08:39:39.996+02:002021-06-05T08:39:39.996+02:00Alex, it's World Cup qualification, so FIFA ru...Alex, it's World Cup qualification, so FIFA rules and they will always apply seeding based on a FIFA ranking. Which one they will use for the third round draw depends on the draw date, because the next complete and up-to-date ranking will be only available on August 12th and I don't think they will wait that long with the draw.<br />So it will be the May ranking they will use to seed the Edhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18129737197244852246noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-21321200425283609392021-06-01T20:21:37.840+02:002021-06-01T20:21:37.840+02:00I'm still having a hard time making it end in ...I'm still having a hard time making it end in a 0.04% for the group, i.e. basically no chance. If their chances of beating Sri Lanka is what, 60% at least, then they have at least a 27% chance of ending with 1 draw and 1 defeat at worst. And 1 draw and 1 defeat is what China is already at with a match against Syria still remaining. And China's group is at 90% of providing a qualifier via Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-16841867062853183152021-06-01T17:46:54.093+02:002021-06-01T17:46:54.093+02:00Ed-
In doing my own simulation for this qualifier,...Ed-<br />In doing my own simulation for this qualifier, I've struggled to figure out how they will seed for pots in the 3rd round... do they use FIFA rankings at the time?dopeislandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17606692867466284723noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-66061723617042457662021-06-01T17:10:27.132+02:002021-06-01T17:10:27.132+02:00I think you are a bit optimistic about Lebanon'...I think you are a bit optimistic about Lebanon's chances for a win against Turkmenistan. Given the elo win probability for Turkmenistan of about 33%, it means that Turkmenistan has a 28% to win. Lebanon's chance to win this match will be only 46%. There's also some 26% chance it ends in a draw.Edhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06640136267487836463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-28917561624549996952021-06-01T16:37:56.387+02:002021-06-01T16:37:56.387+02:00Lebanon only needs two wins out of the three match...Lebanon only needs two wins out of the three matches <br />Sri Lanka 99% chance <br />Turkmenistan 64% winning chance <br />How could it be that lebanon such a low chance to qualifying?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18112023693699690409noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-14357717260910754852021-06-01T15:04:04.378+02:002021-06-01T15:04:04.378+02:00Thanks Ed for your great efforts. I think there is...Thanks Ed for your great efforts. I think there is something wrong in calculation regarding Group H specially the probability of the runner up of this group.Tarekhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02474890493237269194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-24224808938648676022021-06-01T15:02:31.440+02:002021-06-01T15:02:31.440+02:00Thanks Ed for your great efforts. I thing there so...Thanks Ed for your great efforts. I thing there something wrong in calculation regarding Group H specially the probability of the runner up if this group. Tarekhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02474890493237269194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1631997616728141521.post-59289769698508237492021-05-31T20:53:11.489+02:002021-05-31T20:53:11.489+02:00Does this take into account that results against 5...Does this take into account that results against 5th placed teams do not count for the 2nd placed table. It looks like they still count here, since Lebanon and Turkmenistan have so low chances of qualification?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com