2014 FIFA World Cup seeding: AFC 4th round (3 February 2012)

AFC have confirmed about 30 minutes ago that the March FIFA ranking will be used to seed the teams for the final group round draw.

AFC haven't confirmed the draw procedure. 4 years ago, the 4 lowest seeded teams of the 10 qualified for the 4th round were placed in a single pot.

The publishing date has been brought forward by a week to 7 March so the last match day will be included in the rankings. Some might say the last match day would have been included even if the ranking would have been published on 14 March, but the draw takes places on 9 March.

If FIFA hadn't changed the publishing date, then the February FIFA ranking would had been the latest available FIFA ranking, as I wrote last Friday.

I did write on Friday to FIFA, AFC and all the involved FAs, but I can't claim the change of release date is because of me, although some people give me credit for this.

Schedule:

Australia - Saudi Arabia (Q)
Japan - Iceland (F), Uzbekistan (Q)
Korea Republic - Uzbekistan (F), Kuwait (Q)
Iran - Jordan (F), Qatar (Q)
Uzbekistan - Korea Republic (F), Japan (Q)
Saudi Arabia - Malaysia (F), Australia (Q)
Jordan - Iran (F), China PR (Q)
Iraq - Singapore (Q)
Qatar - Iran (Q)
Kuwait - Korea DPR (F), China PR (F), Korea Republic (Q)
Oman - India (F), Thailand (Q)
Bahrain - Indonesia (Q)
Lebanon - United Arab Emirates (Q)
Thailand - Myanmar (F), Maldives (F), Oman (Q)


Columns:

Team
Minimum points (if the team qualifies, based on qualification scenarios)
Maximum points

Australia	803	868
Japan	715	812
Korea Republic	658	751
Iran	545	633
Uzbekistan	424	533
Saudi Arabia	372	479
Jordan	412	479
Iraq	423	443
Qatar	364	436
Kuwait	404	432
Oman	355	381
Bahrain	373	373
Lebanon	277	311
Thailand	261	280

Australia are safe in the first pot, while Japan could be overtaken by Korea Republic.

Iran stuck in the second pot.

A look at the other teams later today (if I have the time) or next week.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding: (Almost) official AFC 4th round

Update: 3 February 2012

See the updated seeding list.

________________________________

Update: 30 January 2012

On the morning of 27 January, the release date for the March 2012 ranking was 14 March. Later that day, FIFA brought the date forward by one week, thus the ranking will be published on 7 March, two days before the draw and what is written below is no longer true (i.e. the games on 29 February will now affect the seeding).

I did write on Friday to FIFA, AFC and all the involved FAs, but I can't claim the change of release date is because of me.

Original article follows:
__________________________

The AFC have announced yesterday the draw for the fourth round will take place on March 9.

Last August, AFC's Competition Committee decided to use the latest FIFA rankings to seed the teams for the fourth round draw.

Looking at the FIFA ranking schedule, this means the February ranking will be used, thus the 29 February games (last match day of the third round will not affect the seeding).

It would be better (in my very humble opinion) to postpone the draw for March 16 (two days after the released of the March ranking).

Already qualified: Jordan, Iraq, Uzbekistan, Japan, Australia and Iran.

Only one match left before the February ranking is released: a friendly involving the United Arab Emirates and Uzbekistan, on January 29th. However, Uzbekistan are safe between Iran and Iraq (that's a difficult place to be in, isn't it?).

Here's the table, with Uzbekistan's friendly counted as a defeat. With a win, Uzbekistan would have 469 points, not enough to overtake Iran.

1	Australia	832
2	Japan	762
3	Korea Republic	714
4	Iran	606
5	Uzbekistan	455
6	Iraq	439
7	Jordan	431
8	Saudi Arabia	407
9	Kuwait	399
10	Oman	377
11	Qatar	372
12	Bahrain	366
13	Lebanon	299
14	Thailand	235

4 years ago, the 4 lowest seeded teams of the 10 qualified for the 4th round were placed in a single pot.

Pot 1: Australia, Japan
Pot 2: Korea Republic, Iran
Pot 3: Uzbekistan, Iraq
Pot 4: Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar.

If Korea Republic don't qualify, Uzbekistan will climb to Pot 2, while Jordan will climb to Pot 3.

FIFA Ranking: Australia set top 10 target

FFA have published the 2011 - 2015 Strategic Plan.

Couple of quotes:

... a vision for Australia to become a Top 10 football nation.

The ambitious target goes way beyond our FIFA Ranking.

Our targets include:

- Qantas Socceroos qualifying for Brazil 2014 FIFA World Cup and reaching the round of 16 as a minimum.
- Winning the 2015 AFC Asian Cup on home soil
- The Socceroos contesting for a Top 10 spot on the FIFA Rankings by 2015 and averaging a Top 20 spot across the period.

Things going against this quest:

- Australia will host the 2015 Asian Cup, thus they'll miss out on scoring important FIFA ranking points in the qualifiers
- They are members of AFC - so their points are affected by the 0.86 confederation weighting. It used to be 0.85 - it will be marginally easier to gain points thanks to me :D
- AFC regional tournaments. Most of Australia's opponents play in some kind of regional championship (EAFF, WAFF, SAFF, ASEAN). With FIFA considering these games are friendlies, their ranking goes down and also Australia's ranking goes down.
- AFC is huge and temperature/humidity difference can play a role as Australia have recently seen against Oman.
- Australia's tendency of relaxing in dead-rubber games.

Japan made it to the last 16 of the 2010 FIFA World Cup and won the 2011 AFC Asian Cup. Their highest ranking after FIFA changed the rankings system in July 2006? 13th in April 2011.

I wrote in June 2011 a post about Australia clinching a seed at the 2010 World Cup. I said it would be extremely difficult. However, it was about peaking at a chosen time (October 2009), not maintaining it for a long time.

Good luck anyway!

2014 World Cup seeding: AFC 4th round (25 November 2011)

Next update: sometime in January after the Pan Arab Games.

AFC have announced the draw for the 4th round will also be based on the FIFA rankings.

The last match day of round 3 takes place on February 29, while the first match day of round 4 is scheduled for June 3.

I think the draw will take place in March, using the March FIFA ranking that will be released on March 14.

4 years ago, the 4 lowest seeded teams of the 10 qualified for the 4th round were placed in a single pot.

Here's the March 2012 FIFA ranking, counting scheduled games as defeats (only teams still alive):

1	Australia	838
2	Japan	769
3	Korea Republic	721
4	Iran	601
5	Uzbekistan	504
6	Iraq	450
7	Jordan	402
8	Bahrain	364
9	Qatar	363
10	Saudi Arabia	359
11	Kuwait	350
12	Oman	343
13	Lebanon	291
14	Thailand	257

Pot 1: Australia, Japan
Pot 2: Korea Republic, Iran
Pot 3: Uzbekistan, Iraq
Pot 4: Jordan, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait

2014 World Cup seeding: AFC 4th round (21 October 2011)

Next update: 18 November 2011 or later.

AFC have announced the draw for the 4th round will also be based on the FIFA rankings.

2014 F1FA World Cup Brazil™ - Asian Qualifiers Round 4 - Draw
The Committee decided to take the latest FIFA/Coca Cola rankings at the time of the Draw for Round 4 as F1FA Ranking has already been implemented for Round 3.

Yes, it's F1FA, not FIFA :)

The last match day of round 3 takes place on February 29, while the first match day of round 4 is scheduled for June 3.

I think the draw will take place in March, using the March FIFA ranking that will be released based on my calculations on March 15.

4 years ago, the 4 lowest seeded teams of the 10 qualified for the 4th round were placed in a single pot.

Here's the March 2012 FIFA ranking, counting scheduled games as defeats:

1	Australia	753
2	Japan	694
3	Korea Republic	619
4	Iran	510
5	China PR	418
6	Jordan	401
7	Uzbekistan	393
8	Iraq	355
9	Kuwait	349
10	Qatar	331
11	Saudi Arabia	318
12	Bahrain	305
13	Oman	280
14	Thailand	234
15	United Arab Emirates	208
16	Korea DPR	203
17	Tajikistan	195
18	Indonesia	159
19	Singapore	148
20	Lebanon	122

Pot 1: Australia, Japan
Pot 2: Korea Republic, Iran
Pot 3: China PR, Jordan
Pot 4: Uzbekistan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia

2014 World Cup seeding: AFC 4th round (16 September 2011)

Next update: 14 October 2011 or later.

AFC have announced the draw for the 4th round will also be based on the FIFA rankings.

2014 F1FA World Cup Brazil™ - Asian Qualifiers Round 4 - Draw
The Committee decided to take the latest FIFA/Coca Cola rankings at the time of the Draw for Round 4 as F1FA Ranking has already been implemented for Round 3.

Yes, it's F1FA, not FIFA :)

The last match day of round 3 takes place on February 29, while the first match day of round 4 is scheduled for June 3.

I think the draw will take place in March, using the March FIFA ranking that will be released based on my calculations on March 15.

4 years ago, the 4 lowest seeded teams of the 10 qualified for the 4th round were placed in a single pot.

Here's the March 2012 FIFA ranking, counting scheduled games as defeats:

1	Australia	708
2	Japan	644
3	Korea Republic	573
4	Iran	471
5	China PR	430
6	Jordan	383
7	Uzbekistan	359
8	Kuwait	353
9	Bahrain	323
10	Saudi Arabia	319
11	Iraq	305
11	Qatar	305
13	Oman	291
14	Thailand	228
15	United Arab Emirates	226
16	Korea DPR	209
17	Tajikistan	196
18	Indonesia	164
19	Singapore	143
20	Lebanon	111

Pot 1: Australia, Japan
Pot 2: Korea Republic, Iran
Pot 3: China PR, Jordan
Pot 4: Uzbekistan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia

Jordan replace Saudi Arabia in the third pot.

2014 FIFA World Cup: AFC round 3 sims

10000 simulations using the Elo Ratings.

Group A

China PR	88.93
Iraq	63.83
Jordan	39.98
Singapore	7.26

Group B

Korea Republic	98.1
Kuwait	72.98
United Arab Emirates	28.28
Lebanon	0.64

Group C

Japan	99.13
Uzbekistan	62.8
Korea DPR	34.61
Tajikistan	3.47

Group D

Australia	97.43
Saudi Arabia	55.46
Oman	37.36
Thailand	9.75

Group E

Iran	97.7
Qatar	48.5
Bahrain	42.84
Indonesia	10.96

Group of death seems to be Group E - with only 6.01 between Qatar and Bahrain.

In Group B, Kuwait heavily favored for 2nd spot - 44.7 ahead of United Arab Emirates.

2014 World Cup seeding: AFC 4th round

AFC have announced the draw for the 4th round will also be based on the FIFA rankings.


2014 F1FA World Cup Brazil™ - Asian Qualifiers Round 4 - Draw
The Committee decided to take the latest FIFA/Coca Cola rankings at the time of the Draw for Round 4 as F1FA Ranking has already been implemented for Round 3.

Yes, it's F1FA, not FIFA :)

The last match day of round 3 takes place on February 29, while the first match day of round 4 is scheduled for June 3.

I think the draw will take place in March, using the March FIFA ranking that will be released based on my calculations on March 15.

4 years ago, the 4 lowest seeded teams of the 10 qualified for the 4th round were placed in a single pot.

Here's the March 2012 FIFA ranking, counting scheduled games as defeats:

1	Australia	773
2	Japan	761
3	Korea Republic	709
4	Iran	582
5	China PR	515
6	Saudi Arabia	471
7	Bahrain	455
8	Qatar	448
9	Uzbekistan	444
10	Jordan	416
11	Syria	412
12	Kuwait	402
13	Iraq	384
13	United Arab Emirates	384
15	Oman	382
16	Indonesia	354
17	Thailand	342
18	Singapore	315
19	Korea DPR	314
20	Lebanon	202

 
Pot 1: Australia, Japan
Pot 2: Korea Republic, Iran
Pot 3: China PR, Saudi Arabia
Pot 4: Bahrain, Uzbekistan, Jordan, Kuwait

It's Kuwait instead of Qatar because there must be two teams from each group. Iran (Pot 1) and Bahrain (Pot 4) are in Group E with Qatar and Indonesia.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): 10000 simulations (8 July 2011)

I ran 10000 simulations using the Elo Ratings.

Assumption: Indonesia will somehow avoid being suspended by FIFA.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): Simulation results by team (8 July 2011)
2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): Simulation results by pot (8 July 2011)

Kuwait's chances for Pot 2 have improved by 24.71% after their friendly results, but they are still outsiders. Bahrain are no longer safe in Pot 2.

No changes in the pots.

Based on these 10000 simulations, this is most likely composition of pots. In each pot, teams are sorted alphabetically, so don't read anything into their order.

Pot 1: Australia, China PR, Iran, Japan, Korea Republic
Pot 2: Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Uzbekistan
Pot 3: Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Syria, United Arab Emirates
Pot 4: Korea DPR, Lebanon, Singapore, Thailand, Turkmenistan 

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): Simulation results by team (8 July 2011)

Japan: 100.00% in Pot 1
Australia: 100.00% in Pot 1
Korea Republic: 100.00% in Pot 1
China PR: 99.93% in Pot 1, 0.07% eliminated in QR2
Iran: 99.54% in Pot 1, 0.46% eliminated in QR2
Uzbekistan: 97.02% in Pot 2, 2.46% eliminated in QR2, 0.52% in Pot 1
Qatar: 90.61% in Pot 2, 9.38% eliminated in QR2, 0.01% in Pot 1
Jordan: 98.97% in Pot 2, 1.03% eliminated in QR2
Saudi Arabia: 94.56% in Pot 2, 5.44% eliminated in QR2
Bahrain: 75.27% in Pot 2, 24.73% in Pot 3
Kuwait: 56.80% in Pot 3, 42.19% in Pot 2, 1.01% eliminated in QR2
Syria: 85.38% in Pot 3, 13.80% eliminated in QR2, 0.82% in Pot 2
Iraq: 90.72% in Pot 3, 8.95% eliminated in QR2, 0.33% in Pot 2
Oman: 98.63% in Pot 3, 1.14% eliminated in QR2, 0.23% in Pot 2
United Arab Emirates: 86.18% in Pot 3, 13.82% eliminated in QR2
Korea DPR: 54.56% in Pot 4, 45.44% in Pot 3
Thailand: 74.78% in Pot 4, 16.13% eliminated in QR2, 9.09% in Pot 3
Yemen: 91.05% eliminated in QR2, 7.87% in Pot 4, 1.08% in Pot 3
Tajikistan: 86.20% eliminated in QR2, 13.02% in Pot 4, 0.78% in Pot 3
Indonesia: 61.13% eliminated in QR2, 38.19% in Pot 4, 0.68% in Pot 3
Vietnam: 90.62% eliminated in QR2, 9.14% in Pot 4, 0.24% in Pot 3
Nepal: 98.97% eliminated in QR2, 0.88% in Pot 4, 0.15% in Pot 3
Singapore: 62.61% in Pot 4, 37.32% eliminated in QR2, 0.07% in Pot 3
Malaysia: 62.68% eliminated in QR2, 37.29% in Pot 4, 0.03% in Pot 3
Lebanon: 87.04% in Pot 4, 12.96% eliminated in QR2
Turkmenistan: 61.13% in Pot 4, 38.87% eliminated in QR2
Palestine: 83.87% eliminated in QR2, 16.13% in Pot 4
India: 86.18% eliminated in QR2, 13.82% in Pot 4
Bangladesh: 87.04% eliminated in QR2, 12.96% in Pot 4
Hong Kong: 94.56% eliminated in QR2, 5.44% in Pot 4
Kyrgyzstan: 97.54% eliminated in QR2, 2.46% in Pot 4
Myanmar: 98.86% eliminated in QR2, 1.14% in Pot 4
Philippines: 98.99% eliminated in QR2, 1.01% in Pot 4
Maldives: 99.54% eliminated in QR2, 0.46% in Pot 4
Laos: 99.93% eliminated in QR2, 0.07% in Pot 4

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): Simulation results by pot (8 July 2011)

Pot 1

100.00% - Japan
100.00% - Australia
100.00% - Korea Republic
99.93% - China PR
99.54% - Iran
0.52% - Uzbekistan
0.01% - Qatar

Pot 2

98.97% - Jordan
97.02% - Uzbekistan
94.56% - Saudi Arabia
90.61% - Qatar
75.27% - Bahrain
42.19% - Kuwait
0.82% - Syria
0.33% - Iraq
0.23% - Oman

Pot 3

98.63% - Oman
90.72% - Iraq
86.18% - United Arab Emirates
85.38% - Syria
56.80% - Kuwait
45.44% - Korea DPR
24.73% - Bahrain
9.09% - Thailand
1.08% - Yemen
0.78% - Tajikistan
0.68% - Indonesia
0.24% - Vietnam
0.15% - Nepal
0.07% - Singapore
0.03% - Malaysia

Pot 4

87.04% - Lebanon
74.78% - Thailand
62.61% - Singapore
61.13% - Turkmenistan
54.56% - Korea DPR
38.19% - Indonesia
37.29% - Malaysia
16.13% - Palestine
13.82% - India
13.02% - Tajikistan
12.96% - Bangladesh
9.14% - Vietnam
7.87% - Yemen
5.44% - Hong Kong
2.46% - Kyrgyzstan
1.14% - Myanmar
1.01% - Philippines
0.88% - Nepal
0.46% - Maldives
0.07% - Laos

Eliminated in the second round

99.93% - Laos
99.54% - Maldives
98.99% - Philippines
98.97% - Nepal
98.86% - Myanmar
97.54% - Kyrgyzstan
94.56% - Hong Kong
91.05% - Yemen
90.62% - Vietnam
87.04% - Bangladesh
86.20% - Tajikistan
86.18% - India
83.87% - Palestine
62.68% - Malaysia
61.13% - Indonesia
38.87% - Turkmenistan
37.32% - Singapore
16.13% - Thailand
13.82% - United Arab Emirates
13.80% - Syria
12.96% - Lebanon
9.38% - Qatar
8.95% - Iraq
5.44% - Saudi Arabia
2.46% - Uzbekistan
1.14% - Oman
1.03% - Jordan
1.01% - Kuwait
0.46% - Iran
0.07% - China PR

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding: Chinese to gain the most

AFC had to drop their beloved performance based seeding and will use the July FIFA ranking for the group stage draw.

Using the simulation results to determine the teams qualified for the group stage, let's see the teams affected by this change in the seeding procedure.

Pots using the AFC performance based seeding:

Pot 1: Japan, Korea Republic, Australia, Korea DPR, Bahrain
Pot 2: Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar, Uzbekistan, United Arab Emirates
Pot 3: Syria, Oman, Jordan, Iraq, Singapore
Pot 4: China PR, Kuwait, Thailand, Turkmenistan, Lebanon

Pots using the FIFA ranking:

Pot 1: Australia, China PR, Iran, Japan, Korea Republic
Pot 2: Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Uzbekistan
Pot 3: Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Syria, United Arab Emirates
Pot 4: Korea DPR, Lebanon, Singapore, Thailand, Turkmenistan

Moving up:

3 - China PR
1 - Iran, Jordan, Kuwait

Moving down:

-3 - Korea DPR
-1 - Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, Singapore

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): 10000 simulations (17 June 2011)

Next update: 8 July 2011.

I ran 10000 simulations using the Elo Ratings.

Assumption: Indonesia will somehow avoid being suspended by FIFA.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): Simulation results by team (17 June 2011)
2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): Simulation results by pot (17 June 2011)

Based on these 10000 simulations, this is most likely composition of pots. In each pot, teams are sorted alphabetically, so don't read anything into their order.

Pot 1: Australia, China PR, Iran, Japan, Korea Republic
Pot 2: Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Uzbekistan
Pot 3: Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Syria, United Arab Emirates
Pot 4: Korea DPR, Lebanon, Singapore, Thailand, Turkmenistan

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): Simulation results by team (17 June 2011)

Japan: 100.00% in Pot 1
Australia: 100.00% in Pot 1
Korea Republic: 100.00% in Pot 1
Iran: 99.48% in Pot 1, 0.52% eliminated in QR2
China PR: 99.97% in Pot 1, 0.03% eliminated in QR2
Bahrain: 100.00% in Pot 2
Saudi Arabia: 94.56% in Pot 2, 5.44% eliminated in QR2
Qatar: 90.70% in Pot 2, 9.30% eliminated in QR2
Uzbekistan: 97.41% in Pot 2, 2.58% eliminated in QR2, 0.01% in Pot 1
Jordan: 98.69% in Pot 2, 0.77% eliminated in QR2, 0.54% in Pot 1
Kuwait: 81.77% in Pot 3, 17.48% in Pot 2, 0.75% eliminated in QR2
Syria: 83.34% in Pot 3, 16.66% eliminated in QR2
United Arab Emirates: 86.04% in Pot 3, 13.96% eliminated in QR2
Iraq: 91.42% in Pot 3, 7.51% eliminated in QR2, 1.07% in Pot 2
Oman: 98.66% in Pot 3, 1.25% eliminated in QR2, 0.09% in Pot 2
Korea DPR: 53.56% in Pot 4, 46.44% in Pot 3
Lebanon: 89.49% in Pot 4, 10.51% eliminated in QR2
Thailand: 73.27% in Pot 4, 17.64% eliminated in QR2, 9.09% in Pot 3
Turkmenistan: 60.31% in Pot 4, 39.67% eliminated in QR2, 0.02% in Pot 3
Singapore: 59.06% in Pot 4, 40.79% eliminated in QR2, 0.15% in Pot 3
India: 86.04% eliminated in QR2, 13.96% in Pot 4
Hong Kong: 94.56% eliminated in QR2, 5.44% in Pot 4
Maldives: 99.48% eliminated in QR2, 0.52% in Pot 4
Kyrgyzstan: 97.42% eliminated in QR2, 2.58% in Pot 4
Yemen: 92.49% eliminated in QR2, 6.55% in Pot 4, 0.96% in Pot 3
Indonesia: 60.33% eliminated in QR2, 39.39% in Pot 4, 0.28% in Pot 3
Tajikistan: 83.34% eliminated in QR2, 15.68% in Pot 4, 0.98% in Pot 3
Vietnam: 90.12% eliminated in QR2, 9.19% in Pot 4, 0.58% eliminated in QR1, 0.11% in Pot 3
Malaysia: 54.72% eliminated in QR2, 40.17% in Pot 4, 4.57% eliminated in QR1, 0.54% in Pot 3
Palestine: 80.11% eliminated in QR2, 17.59% in Pot 4, 2.30% eliminated in QR1
Nepal: 98.44% eliminated in QR2, 0.79% eliminated in QR1, 0.67% in Pot 4, 0.1% in Pot 3
Philippines: 69.59% eliminated in QR2, 29.76% eliminated in QR1, 0.65% in Pot 4
Myanmar: 89.14% eliminated in QR2, 9.62% eliminated in QR1, 1.24% in Pot 4
Laos: 66.01% eliminated in QR2, 33.96% eliminated in QR1, 0.03% in Pot 4
Cambodia: 66.04% eliminated in QR1, 33.96% eliminated in QR2
Macau: 99.42% eliminated in QR1, 0.58% eliminated in QR2
Timor-Leste: 99.21% eliminated in QR1, 0.79% eliminated in QR2
Chinese Taipei: 95.43% eliminated in QR1, 4.49% eliminated in QR2, 0.08% in Pot 4
Bangladesh: 49.03% eliminated in QR1, 45.19% eliminated in QR2, 5.71% in Pot 4, 0.07% in Pot 3
Afghanistan: 97.70% eliminated in QR1, 2.25% eliminated in QR2, 0.05% in Pot 4
Pakistan: 50.97% eliminated in QR1, 44.30% eliminated in QR2, 4.70% in Pot 4, 0.03 in Pot 3
Sri Lanka: 70.24% eliminated in QR1, 29.66% eliminated in QR2, 0.10% in Pot 4
Mongolia: 90.38% eliminated in QR1, 9.61% eliminated in QR2, 0.01% in Pot 4

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): Simulation results by pot (17 June 2011)

Pot 1

100.00% - Japan
100.00% - Australia
100.00% - Korea Republic
99.97% - China PR
99.48% - Iran
0.54% - Jordan
0.01% - Uzbekistan


Pot 2

100.00% - Bahrain
98.69% - Jordan
97.41% - Uzbekistan
94.56% - Saudi Arabia
90.70% - Qatar
17.48% - Kuwait
1.07% - Iraq
0.09% - Oman

Pot 3

98.66% - Oman
91.42% - Iraq
86.04% - United Arab Emirates
83.34% - Syria
81.77% - Kuwait
46.44% - Korea DPR
9.09% - Thailand
0.98% - Tajikistan
0.96% - Yemen
0.54% - Malaysia
0.28% - Indonesia
0.15% - Singapore
0.11% - Vietnam
0.10% - Nepal
0.07% - Bangladesh
0.03% - Pakistan
0.02% - Turkmenistan

Pot 4

89.49% - Lebanon
73.27% - Thailand
60.31% - Turkmenistan
59.06% - Singapore
53.56% - Korea DPR
40.17% - Malaysia
39.39% - Indonesia
17.59% - Palestine
15.68% - Tajikistan
13.96% - India
9.19% - Vietnam
6.55% - Yemen
5.71% - Bangladesh
5.44% - Hong Kong
4.70% - Pakistan
2.58% - Kyrgyzstan
1.24% - Myanmar
0.67% - Nepal
0.65% - Philippines
0.52% - Maldives
0.10% - Sri Lanka
0.08% - Chinese Taipei
0.05% - Afghanistan
0.03% - Laos
0.01% - Mongolia

Eliminated in the second round

99.48% - Maldives
98.44% - Nepal
97.42% - Kyrgyzstan
94.56% - Hong Kong
92.49% - Yemen
90.12% - Vietnam
89.14% - Myanmar
86.04% - India
83.34% - Tajikistan
80.11% - Palestine
69.59% - Philippines
66.01% - Laos
60.33% - Indonesia
54.72% - Malaysia
45.19% - Bangladesh
44.30% - Pakistan
40.79% - Singapore
39.67% - Turkmenistan
33.96% - Cambodia
29.66% - Sri Lanka
17.64% - Thailand
16.66% - Syria
13.96% - United Arab Emirates
10.51% - Lebanon
9.61% - Mongolia
9.30% - Qatar
7.51% - Iraq
5.44% - Saudi Arabia
4.49% - Chinese Taipei
2.58% - Uzbekistan
2.25% - Afghanistan
1.25% - Oman
0.79% - Timor-Leste
0.77% - Jordan
0.75% - Kuwait
0.58% - Macau
0.52% - Iran
0.03% - China PR

Eliminated in the first round

99.42% - Macau
99.21% - Timor-Leste
97.70% - Afghanistan
95.43% - Chinese Taipei
90.38% - Mongolia
70.24% - Sri Lanka
66.04% - Cambodia
50.97% - Pakistan
49.03% - Bangladesh
33.96% - Laos
29.76% - Philippines
9.62% - Myanmar
4.57% - Malaysia
2.30% - Palestine
0.79% - Nepal
0.58% - Vietnam

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding: July 2011 ranking to be used

The FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking of July 2011 would be used for the continental draws that will take place at the Preliminary Draw for this competition, with the exception of CONCACAF, who will use the March 2011 rankings, which were the ones used for the first round of the preliminary competition in that region.

Source: FIFA.com

The July ranking will be used even for the AFC third round draw. Go figure...

This means my work with UEFA and CAF seeding hasn't been in vain.

2014 FIFA World Cup: A look at the AFC preliminary draw

Source: the-afc.com

Round 1

Malaysia - Chinese Taipei
Bangladesh - Pakistan
Cambodia - Laos
Sri Lanka - Philippines
Afghanistan - Palestine
Vietnam - Macau
Nepal - Timor Leste
Mongolia - Myanmar

Round 2

Thailand - Afghanistan/Palestine
Lebanon - Bangladesh/Pakistan
China PR - Cambodia/Laos
Turkmenistan - Indonesia
Kuwait - Sri Lanka/Philippines
Oman - Mongolia/Myanmar
Saudi Arabia - Hong Kong
Iran - Maldives
Syria - Tajikistan
Qatar - Vietnam/Macau
Iraq - Yemen
Singapore - Malaysia/Chinese Taipei
Uzbekistan - Kyrgyzstan
United Arab Emirates - India
Jordan - Nepal/Timor Leste

Based on Elo ratings, the closest matches in the first round will be:

Cambodia - Laos
Sri Lanka - Philippines
Bangladesh - Pakistan

while Macau seem to have no chance against Vietnam.

In the second round, the closest matches will be:

Singapore - Malaysia
Turkmenistan - Indonesia
Thailand - Palestine
Syria - Tajikistan

while Laos, Maldives, Nepal and the Philippines seem to be there for the taking for China PR, Iran, Jordan and Kuwait.

This is how the draw would have looked like using the March 2011 FIFA ranking:


Iran and China PR would have replaced Korea DPR and Bahrain as top 5 seeds - thus getting a bye to the group stage.

Round 1

Cambodia - Macau
Lebanon - Sri Lanka
Turkmenistan - Timor Leste
Pakistan - Afghanistan
Myanmar - Kyrgyzstan
Laos - Palestine
Maldives - Bangladesh
Nepal - Mongolia

Round 2

Yemen - Myanmar/Kyrgyzstan
Vietnam - Lebanon/Sri Lanka
Korea DPR - Turkmenistan/Timor Leste
Indonesia - India
Thailand - Pakistan/Afghanistan
Kuwait - Nepal/Mongolia
Uzbekistan - Hong Kong
Saudi Arabia - Tajikistan
Bahrain - Singapore
Jordan - Laos/Palestine
Oman - Malaysia
United Arab Emirates - Cambodia/Macau
Iraq - Chinese Taipei
Qatar - Philippines
Syria - Maldives/Bangladesh

2014 FIFA World Cup: AFC come to their senses

At the end of January 2011, AFC sent a letter to FIFA asking them to change the dates for the 2013 Confederations Cup as it would clash with an official FIFA match date - June 18.

“We request the FIFA Confederations Cup – Brazil 2013 to be scheduled in another period of time that does not clash with the FIFA Official Match Dates already confirmed by FIFA and applied to respective Competition Calendars of different Confederations including AFC,” AFC wrote in a letter to FIFA.

The June 18, 2013 Asian qualifiers is a crucial fourth-round match and is the home stretch for teams looking to book their places in the 2014 FIFA World Cup finals.


Today, AFC came to their senses and announced they will make sure Japan won't have to play on June 18, 2013.

It was also decided to place Japan in position 5 of their group for the 2014 FIFA World Cup qualifiers (final round-Asia) to avert a clash with the 2013 FIFA Confederations Cup (June 16-30). Now Japan will have a rest day on June 18 in the FIFA World Cup qualifiers (final round-Asia) that will enable the Asian champions to play in the FIFA Confederations Cup.

AFC WC seeding: China, Bangladesh and Pakistan have reason to complain

You might have noticed some differences between the official AFC 2014 World Cup seeding and the one I posted about a month ago.

I sorted the teams using the following criteria:

1. Round reached
2. Points
3. Goal difference
4. Goals scored

 In my performance ranking, China were 15th, Bangladesh 29th and Pakistan 30th. However, in the official AFC list, China were 16th, Bangladesh 32nd and Pakistan 36th.

I managed to figure out why. AFC have sorted the teams eliminated in Round 3 using first the position in the group. Thus, Singapore (ranked third in Group 4 with 6 points and -9 goal difference) are above China (fourth in Group 1 with 6 points and a -1 goal difference).

That takes care of the China/Singapore difference.

Onto Pakistan and Bangladesh.

Both teams were eliminated in the first round. Bangladesh managed a 1-1 draw against Tajikistan in Dhaka, but lost 5 - 1 in the return leg. Pakistan were hammered 7 - 0 at home by 2007 AFC Asian Cup winners Iraq, but held on for a draw in the return leg played in Syria for security reasons.

Why are Afghanistan, Cambodia and Nepal (no points) above Bangladesh? And why are Vietnam, Sri Lanka, Mongolia (again, no points) and the previous three teams above Pakistan?

AFC have sorted the teams eliminated in Round 1 using goal difference and goals scored - they forgot about points.

It won't matter in the end if AFC use the same system as 4 years ago, as both Bangladesh and Pakistan will still be unseeded in Round 1, while China would still be seeded in Round 2.

2014 FIFA World Cup: AFC official seeding

AFC have released the official seeding for the March 30 preliminary draw.

Rankings for the FIFA World Cup 2014 Asian Qualifiers Round 1
1. Japan, 2. Korea Republic, 3. Australia, 4. DPR Korea, 5. Bahrain, 6. Saudi Arabia, 7. Iran, 8, Qatar, 9. Uzbekistan, 10. UAE, 11. Syria, 12. Oman, 13. Jordan, 14. Iraq, 15. Singapore, 16, China, 17, Kuwait, 18. Thailand, 19. Turkmenistan, 20. Lebanon, 21, Yemen, 22. Tajikistan, 23. Hong Kong, 24. Indonesia, 25. Kyrgyzstan, 26. Maldives, 27. India, 28. Malaysia, 29-30, Afghanistan, Cambodia, 31. Nepal, 32. Bangladesh, 33-34. Sri Lanka, Vietnam, 35. Mongolia, 36. Pakistan, 37. Palestine, 38. Timor Leste, 39. Macau, 40-41. Chinese Taipei, Myanmar, 42-43. Bhutan, Guam, 44-45. The Philippines, Laos
Suspended-Brunei DS