2014 FIFA World Cup seeding: AFC 4th round (3 February 2012)

AFC have confirmed about 30 minutes ago that the March FIFA ranking will be used to seed the teams for the final group round draw.

AFC haven't confirmed the draw procedure. 4 years ago, the 4 lowest seeded teams of the 10 qualified for the 4th round were placed in a single pot.

The publishing date has been brought forward by a week to 7 March so the last match day will be included in the rankings. Some might say the last match day would have been included even if the ranking would have been published on 14 March, but the draw takes places on 9 March.

If FIFA hadn't changed the publishing date, then the February FIFA ranking would had been the latest available FIFA ranking, as I wrote last Friday.

I did write on Friday to FIFA, AFC and all the involved FAs, but I can't claim the change of release date is because of me, although some people give me credit for this.

Schedule:

Australia - Saudi Arabia (Q)
Japan - Iceland (F), Uzbekistan (Q)
Korea Republic - Uzbekistan (F), Kuwait (Q)
Iran - Jordan (F), Qatar (Q)
Uzbekistan - Korea Republic (F), Japan (Q)
Saudi Arabia - Malaysia (F), Australia (Q)
Jordan - Iran (F), China PR (Q)
Iraq - Singapore (Q)
Qatar - Iran (Q)
Kuwait - Korea DPR (F), China PR (F), Korea Republic (Q)
Oman - India (F), Thailand (Q)
Bahrain - Indonesia (Q)
Lebanon - United Arab Emirates (Q)
Thailand - Myanmar (F), Maldives (F), Oman (Q)


Columns:

Team
Minimum points (if the team qualifies, based on qualification scenarios)
Maximum points

Australia	803	868
Japan	715	812
Korea Republic	658	751
Iran	545	633
Uzbekistan	424	533
Saudi Arabia	372	479
Jordan	412	479
Iraq	423	443
Qatar	364	436
Kuwait	404	432
Oman	355	381
Bahrain	373	373
Lebanon	277	311
Thailand	261	280

Australia are safe in the first pot, while Japan could be overtaken by Korea Republic.

Iran stuck in the second pot.

A look at the other teams later today (if I have the time) or next week.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding: (Almost) official AFC 4th round

Update: 3 February 2012

See the updated seeding list.

________________________________

Update: 30 January 2012

On the morning of 27 January, the release date for the March 2012 ranking was 14 March. Later that day, FIFA brought the date forward by one week, thus the ranking will be published on 7 March, two days before the draw and what is written below is no longer true (i.e. the games on 29 February will now affect the seeding).

I did write on Friday to FIFA, AFC and all the involved FAs, but I can't claim the change of release date is because of me.

Original article follows:
__________________________

The AFC have announced yesterday the draw for the fourth round will take place on March 9.

Last August, AFC's Competition Committee decided to use the latest FIFA rankings to seed the teams for the fourth round draw.

Looking at the FIFA ranking schedule, this means the February ranking will be used, thus the 29 February games (last match day of the third round will not affect the seeding).

It would be better (in my very humble opinion) to postpone the draw for March 16 (two days after the released of the March ranking).

Already qualified: Jordan, Iraq, Uzbekistan, Japan, Australia and Iran.

Only one match left before the February ranking is released: a friendly involving the United Arab Emirates and Uzbekistan, on January 29th. However, Uzbekistan are safe between Iran and Iraq (that's a difficult place to be in, isn't it?).

Here's the table, with Uzbekistan's friendly counted as a defeat. With a win, Uzbekistan would have 469 points, not enough to overtake Iran.

1	Australia	832
2	Japan	762
3	Korea Republic	714
4	Iran	606
5	Uzbekistan	455
6	Iraq	439
7	Jordan	431
8	Saudi Arabia	407
9	Kuwait	399
10	Oman	377
11	Qatar	372
12	Bahrain	366
13	Lebanon	299
14	Thailand	235

4 years ago, the 4 lowest seeded teams of the 10 qualified for the 4th round were placed in a single pot.

Pot 1: Australia, Japan
Pot 2: Korea Republic, Iran
Pot 3: Uzbekistan, Iraq
Pot 4: Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar.

If Korea Republic don't qualify, Uzbekistan will climb to Pot 2, while Jordan will climb to Pot 3.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding update (9 December 2011)

Next update: February or March 2012.

See more info in the original 2014 FIFA World Cup seeding post.

This is the top 20 of the intermediate October 2013 FIFA ranking:

1	Uruguay	449
2	Spain	413
3	Germany	402
4	Netherlands	390
5	Portugal	362
6	Argentina	360
7	Croatia	346
8	Brazil	343
9	England	342
10	Chile	324
11	Denmark	314
12	Italy	299
13	Republic of Ireland	288
14	Japan	287
15	Greece	286
16	Czech Republic	281
17	France	274
18	Australia	269
19	Iraq	259
20	Russia	255

Mexico (27), USA (52).

Portugal and Croatia replace England and Italy in the list of seeds.

Right now, the seeds for the 2014 World Cup would be: Brazil, Spain, Uruguay, Germany, Netherlands, Portugal, Argentina and Croatia.

2014 World Cup seeding: AFC 4th round (25 November 2011)

Next update: sometime in January after the Pan Arab Games.

AFC have announced the draw for the 4th round will also be based on the FIFA rankings.

The last match day of round 3 takes place on February 29, while the first match day of round 4 is scheduled for June 3.

I think the draw will take place in March, using the March FIFA ranking that will be released on March 14.

4 years ago, the 4 lowest seeded teams of the 10 qualified for the 4th round were placed in a single pot.

Here's the March 2012 FIFA ranking, counting scheduled games as defeats (only teams still alive):

1	Australia	838
2	Japan	769
3	Korea Republic	721
4	Iran	601
5	Uzbekistan	504
6	Iraq	450
7	Jordan	402
8	Bahrain	364
9	Qatar	363
10	Saudi Arabia	359
11	Kuwait	350
12	Oman	343
13	Lebanon	291
14	Thailand	257

Pot 1: Australia, Japan
Pot 2: Korea Republic, Iran
Pot 3: Uzbekistan, Iraq
Pot 4: Jordan, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding: July vs. October 2011

Since it would have been quite a long post, I decided to split the CAF and UEFA seeding in two different posts.

The groups using the October ranking are based on the actual groups taking into account the zonal rank in July and October. For instance UEFA Group I had the teams ranked 1, 10, 25, 30 and 38 (Spain, France, Belarus, Georgia and Finland). Using the October rankings Group I would have been: Spain, Russia, Wales, Ukraine and Latvia.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding: CAF (July vs. October 2011)
2014 FIFA World Cup seeding: UEFA (July vs. October 2011)

We all know FIFA brought the draw date forward to allow more time for AFC and CONCACAF qualifiers - already in full swing as I write this. I don't think it would have been feasible to postpone the draw for UEFA and CAF until now, but it was interesting (at least for me :D ) to take a look at the differences.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding: UEFA (July vs. October 2011)

This is what actually happened using the July 2011 FIFA ranking to seed the teams.

Pot 1: Spain, Netherlands, Germany, England, Portugal, Italy, Croatia, Norway, Greece
Pot 2: France, Montenegro, Russia, Sweden, Denmark, Slovenia, Turkey, Serbia, Slovakia
Pot 3: Switzerland, Israel, Republic of Ireland, Belgium, Czech Republic, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Belarus, Ukraine, Hungary
Pot 4: Bulgaria, Romania, Georgia, Lithuania, Albania, Scotland, Northern Ireland, Austria, Poland
Pot 5: Armenia, Finland, Estonia, Cyprus, Latvia, Moldova, Macedonia, Azerbaijan, Faroe Islands
Pot 6: Wales, Liechtenstein, Iceland, Kazakhstan, Luxembourg, Malta, Andorra, San Marino

Group A: Croatia, Serbia, Belgium, Scotland, Macedonia, Wales
Group B: Italy, Denmark, Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Armenia, Malta
Group C: Germany, Sweden, Republic of Ireland, Austria, Faroe Islands, Kazakhstan
Group D: Netherlands, Turkey, Hungary, Romania, Estonia, Andorra
Group E: Norway, Slovenia, Switzerland, Albania, Cyprus, Iceland
Group F: Portugal, Russia, Israel, Northern Ireland, Azerbaijan, Luxembourg
Group G: Greece, Slovakia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Lithuania, Latvia, Liechtenstein
Group H: England, Montenegro, Ukraine, Poland, Moldova, San Marino
Group I: Spain, France, Belarus, Georgia, Finland

What would have happened had FIFA postponed the draw to October?

Wales would have jumped from Pot 6 to Pot 3.
Armenia would have jumped from Pot 5 to Pot 3.
Denmark would have climbed from Pot 2 to Pot 1.
Bosnia-Herzegovina, Republic of Ireland and Switzerland would have climbed from Pot 3 to Pot 2.
Estonia would have climbed from Pot 5 to Pot 4.
Iceland and Luxembourg would have climbed from Pot 6 to Pot 5.

Norway would have dropped from Pot 1 to Pot 2.
Montenegro, Slovakia and Slovenia would have dropped from Pot 2 to Pot 3.
Belarus and Ukraine would have dropped from Pot 3 to Pot 4.
Bulgaria, Lithuania and Northern Ireland would have dropped from Pot 4 to Pot 5.
Cyprus, Faroe Islands and Moldova would have dropped from Pot 5 to Pot 6.


Pot 1: Spain, Netherlands, Germany, Italy, England, Greece, Portugal, Denmark, Croatia
Pot 2: Russia, Sweden, France, Switzerland, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia, Norway, Republic of Ireland, Turkey
Pot 3: Slovenia, Hungary, Belgium, Israel, Montenegro, Slovakia, Wales, Armenia, Czech Republic
Pot 4: Scotland, Romania, Ukraine, Estonia, Belarus, Poland, Georgia, Albania, Austria
Pot 5: Bulgaria, Latvia, Finland, Northern Ireland, Lithuania, FYR Macedonia, Iceland, Azerbaijan, Luxembourg
Pot 6: Cyprus, Faroe Islands, Moldova, Liechtenstein, Kazakhstan, Malta, Andorra, San Marino

Group A: Portugal, Republic of Ireland, Israel, Poland, Iceland, Cyprus
Group B: Greece, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Montenegro, Scotland, Bulgaria, Malta
Group C: Germany, Switzerland, Belgium, Albania, Luxembourg, Liechtenstein
Group D: Netherlands, Norway, Czech Republic, Romania, Finland, Andorra
Group E: Denmark, Serbia, Slovenia, Belarus, Northern Ireland, Moldova
Group F: England, France, Hungary, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan
Group G: Croatia, Turkey, Slovakia, Estonia, Lithuania, Faroe Islands
Group H: Italy, Sweden, Armenia, Austria, FYR Macedonia, San Marino
Group I: Spain, Russia, Wales, Ukraine, Latvia

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding: CAF (July vs. October 2011)

This is what actually happened using the July 2011 FIFA ranking to seed the teams.

Pot 1: Mozambique, Congo DR, Togo, Liberia, Tanzania, Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, Ethiopia, Namibia, Burundi, Madagascar
Pot 2: Guinea-Bissau, Equatorial Guinea, Chad, Swaziland, Comoros, Lesotho, Eritrea, Somalia, Djibouti, Mauritius, Seychelles, Sao Tome e Principe

Seychelles - Kenya
Guinea-Bissau - Togo
Djibouti - Namibia
Mauritius - Liberia
Comoros - Mozambique
Equatorial Guinea - Madagascar
Somalia - Ethiopia
Lesotho - Burundi
Eritrea - Rwanda
Swaziland - Congo DR
Sao Tome e Principe - Congo
Chad - Tanzania

Pot 1: Côte d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ghana, Burkina Faso, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, Cameroon, Algeria, Tunisia
Pot 2: Gabon, Libya, Morocco, Guinea, Botswana, Malawi, Zambia, Uganda, Mali, Cape Verde Islands
Pot 3: Benin, Zimbabwe, Central African Republic, Sierra Leone, Sudan, Niger, Angola, Gambia

Group A: South Africa, Botswana, Central African Republic, Somalia/Ethiopia
Group B: Tunisia, Cape Verde Islands, Sierra Leone, Equatorial Guinea/Madagascar
Group C: Côte d'Ivoire, Morocco, Gambia, Chad/Tanzania
Group D: Ghana, Zambia, Sudan, Lesotho/Burundi
Group E: Burkina Faso, Gabon, Niger, Sao Tome e Principe/Congo
Group F: Nigeria, Malawi, Seychelles/Kenya, Djibouti/Namibia
Group G: Egypt, Guinea, Zimbabwe, Comoros/Mozambique
Group H: Algeria, Mali, Benin, Eritrea/Rwanda
Group I: Cameroon, Libya, Guinea-Bissau/Togo, Swaziland/Congo DR
Group J: Senegal, Uganda, Angola, Mauritius/Liberia

What would have happened had FIFA postponed the draw to October?

Morocco would have replaced Tunisia in Pot 1.
Sierra Leone, Zimbabwe and Angola would have replaced Malawi, Uganda and Botswana in Pot 2.
Togo and Mozambique would have replaced Benin and Central African Republic in Pot 3.
Chad would have replaced Madagascar in Pot 4.

Pot 1: Rwanda, Benin, Liberia, Central African Republic, Namibia, Tanzania, Congo DR, Kenya, Ethiopia, Congo, Burundi, Chad
Pot 2: Equatorial Guinea, Lesotho, Madagascar, Guinea-Bissau, Swaziland, Seychelles, Comoros, Mauritius, Eritrea, Somalia, Djibouti, Sao Tome e Principe

Djibouti - Congo DR
Equatorial Guinea - Liberia
Eritrea - Congo
Somalia - Central African Republic
Swaziland - Rwanda
Lesotho - Chad
Mauritius - Ethiopia
Seychelles - Burundi
Comoros - Kenya
Guinea-Bissau - Benin
Sao Tome e Principe - Tanzania
Madagascar - Namibia

Pot 1: Côte d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ghana, Algeria, Senegal, Nigeria, Cameroon, South Africa, Burkina Faso, Morocco
Pot 2: Tunisia, Sierra Leone, Libya, Cape Verde Islands, Gabon, Mali, Zimbabwe, Guinea, Zambia, Angola
Pot 3: Malawi, Uganda, Botswana, Togo, Niger, Sudan, Mozambique, Gambia

Group A: Cameroon, Gabon, Botswana, Mauritius/Ethiopia
Group B: Morocco, Angola, Togo, Lesotho/Chad
Group C: Côte d'Ivoire, Libya, Gambia, Madagascar/Namibia
Group D: Ghana, Zimbabwe, Niger, Seychelles/Burundi
Group E: Algeria, Tunisia, Sudan, Sao Tome e Principe/Tanzania
Group F: Senegal, Mali, Djibouti/Congo DR, Eritrea/Congo
Group G: Egypt, Cape Verde Islands, Uganda, Swaziland/Rwanda
Group H: Burkina Faso, Zambia, Malawi, Comoros/Kenya
Group I: South Africa, Sierra Leone, Equatorial Guinea/Liberia, Guinea-Bissau/Benin
Group J: Cameroon, Guinea, Mozambique, Somalia/Central African Republic

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding update (21 October 2011)

Next update: 18 November 2011 or later.

See more info in the original 2014 FIFA World Cup seeding post.

This is the top 20 of the intermediate October 2013 FIFA ranking:

1	Spain	405
2	Netherlands	375
3	Germany	369
4	Uruguay	340
5	England	284
6	Argentina	278
7	Italy	277
8	Greece	275
9	Portugal	272
10	Denmark	262
11	Brazil	258
12	Sweden	251
13	Croatia	249
14	Russia	244
15	Japan	241
16	France	239
17	Norway	233
18	Chile	232
19	Côte d'Ivoire	220
20	Switzerland	218

Mexico (23), USA (45).

Italy replace Portugal in the list of seeds.

Right now, the seeds for the 2014 World Cup would be: Brazil, Spain, Netherlands, Germany, Uruguay, England, Argentina and Italy.

2014 World Cup seeding: AFC 4th round (21 October 2011)

Next update: 18 November 2011 or later.

AFC have announced the draw for the 4th round will also be based on the FIFA rankings.

2014 F1FA World Cup Brazil™ - Asian Qualifiers Round 4 - Draw
The Committee decided to take the latest FIFA/Coca Cola rankings at the time of the Draw for Round 4 as F1FA Ranking has already been implemented for Round 3.

Yes, it's F1FA, not FIFA :)

The last match day of round 3 takes place on February 29, while the first match day of round 4 is scheduled for June 3.

I think the draw will take place in March, using the March FIFA ranking that will be released based on my calculations on March 15.

4 years ago, the 4 lowest seeded teams of the 10 qualified for the 4th round were placed in a single pot.

Here's the March 2012 FIFA ranking, counting scheduled games as defeats:

1	Australia	753
2	Japan	694
3	Korea Republic	619
4	Iran	510
5	China PR	418
6	Jordan	401
7	Uzbekistan	393
8	Iraq	355
9	Kuwait	349
10	Qatar	331
11	Saudi Arabia	318
12	Bahrain	305
13	Oman	280
14	Thailand	234
15	United Arab Emirates	208
16	Korea DPR	203
17	Tajikistan	195
18	Indonesia	159
19	Singapore	148
20	Lebanon	122

Pot 1: Australia, Japan
Pot 2: Korea Republic, Iran
Pot 3: China PR, Jordan
Pot 4: Uzbekistan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia

2014 World Cup seeding: AFC 4th round (16 September 2011)

Next update: 14 October 2011 or later.

AFC have announced the draw for the 4th round will also be based on the FIFA rankings.

2014 F1FA World Cup Brazil™ - Asian Qualifiers Round 4 - Draw
The Committee decided to take the latest FIFA/Coca Cola rankings at the time of the Draw for Round 4 as F1FA Ranking has already been implemented for Round 3.

Yes, it's F1FA, not FIFA :)

The last match day of round 3 takes place on February 29, while the first match day of round 4 is scheduled for June 3.

I think the draw will take place in March, using the March FIFA ranking that will be released based on my calculations on March 15.

4 years ago, the 4 lowest seeded teams of the 10 qualified for the 4th round were placed in a single pot.

Here's the March 2012 FIFA ranking, counting scheduled games as defeats:

1	Australia	708
2	Japan	644
3	Korea Republic	573
4	Iran	471
5	China PR	430
6	Jordan	383
7	Uzbekistan	359
8	Kuwait	353
9	Bahrain	323
10	Saudi Arabia	319
11	Iraq	305
11	Qatar	305
13	Oman	291
14	Thailand	228
15	United Arab Emirates	226
16	Korea DPR	209
17	Tajikistan	196
18	Indonesia	164
19	Singapore	143
20	Lebanon	111

Pot 1: Australia, Japan
Pot 2: Korea Republic, Iran
Pot 3: China PR, Jordan
Pot 4: Uzbekistan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia

Jordan replace Saudi Arabia in the third pot.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding update (16 September 2011)

Next update: 14 October 2011

See more info in the original 2014 FIFA World Cup seeding post.

This is the top 20 of the intermediate October 2013 FIFA ranking:

1	Netherlands	357
2	Spain	342
3	Uruguay	314
4	Germany	305
5	England	268
6	Argentina	257
7	Portugal	249
8	Italy	238
9	Brazil	228
10	Japan	226
11	Croatia	221
12	Greece	209
13	Mexico	208
14	Chile	207
15	Norway	205
16	Côte d'Ivoire	204
17	France	203
18	Russia	201
19	Australia	199
20	Serbia	194

USA are 44th.

England replace Japan in the list of seeds.

Right now, the seeds for the 2014 World Cup would be: Brazil, Spain, Netherlands, Uruguay, Germany, England, Argentina and Portugal.

Norway "manipulating" the ranking

It seems Norway chose to play against Lithuania (see Google Translation to English in case your Norwegian is a bit rusty) in June and not a more dangerous opponent in order to keep their first pot position.

The Danish media and football officials consider this to be a "manipulation".

However, Norway didn't always play against weak/medium opponents and they didn't always win.

Lost to Poland, Croatia, Ukraine (twice), South Africa
Won against Republic of Ireland, France, Montenegro, Slovakia, Switzerland, South Africa, Finland, Germany.

In a July ranking counting only friendlies (see the second table), Norway were 3rd in Europe, behind Spain and Netherlands.

And if anyone asks - I had nothing to do with this, although I think the Norwegians did what they had to do - it is not illegal.

2014 FIFA World Cup: CONCACAF round 2 sims

10000 simulations using the Elo Ratings.

Group A

El Salvador	93.1
Suriname	6.34
Dominican Republic	0.55
Cayman Islands	0.02

Group B

Trinidad and Tobago	79.24
Guyana	14.53
Barbados	4.44
Bermuda	1.8

Group C

Panama	99.07
Dominica	0.54
Nicaragua	0.39

Group D

Canada	97.75
St. Kitts and Nevis	1.89
St. Lucia	0.28
Puerto Rico	0.08

Group E

Guatemala	84.51
Grenada	10.18
St. Vincent and the Grenadines	4.71
Belize	0.61

Group F

Haiti	77.06
Antigua and Barbuda	21.01
Curacao	1.93
US Virgin Islands	0.01

Panama seem to have a clear path - moving to the next round in 99.07% of the 10000 simulations.
Haiti have the lowest percentage of all the group leaders (77.06), but still way ahead (56.05) of Antigua and Barbuda.

Puerto Rico might be underrated by Elo (at least looking at the Islanders). We'll see.

2014 FIFA World Cup: AFC round 3 sims

10000 simulations using the Elo Ratings.

Group A

China PR	88.93
Iraq	63.83
Jordan	39.98
Singapore	7.26

Group B

Korea Republic	98.1
Kuwait	72.98
United Arab Emirates	28.28
Lebanon	0.64

Group C

Japan	99.13
Uzbekistan	62.8
Korea DPR	34.61
Tajikistan	3.47

Group D

Australia	97.43
Saudi Arabia	55.46
Oman	37.36
Thailand	9.75

Group E

Iran	97.7
Qatar	48.5
Bahrain	42.84
Indonesia	10.96

Group of death seems to be Group E - with only 6.01 between Qatar and Bahrain.

In Group B, Kuwait heavily favored for 2nd spot - 44.7 ahead of United Arab Emirates.

2014 FIFA World Cup: No love for Aruba

Bahamas have withdrawn from the World Cup qualifiers.

Consequently, Group C, in Round 2 of the CONCACAF qualification phase will remain a group of just three teams: Panama, Dominica and Nicaragua. 

Source: FIFA.com.

That's too bad - I think it would have been better to replace them with Aruba - eliminated by St. Lucia after penalties.

Not Turks and Caicos Islands, since Bahamas broke no rules.

2014 World Cup seeding: AFC 4th round

AFC have announced the draw for the 4th round will also be based on the FIFA rankings.


2014 F1FA World Cup Brazil™ - Asian Qualifiers Round 4 - Draw
The Committee decided to take the latest FIFA/Coca Cola rankings at the time of the Draw for Round 4 as F1FA Ranking has already been implemented for Round 3.

Yes, it's F1FA, not FIFA :)

The last match day of round 3 takes place on February 29, while the first match day of round 4 is scheduled for June 3.

I think the draw will take place in March, using the March FIFA ranking that will be released based on my calculations on March 15.

4 years ago, the 4 lowest seeded teams of the 10 qualified for the 4th round were placed in a single pot.

Here's the March 2012 FIFA ranking, counting scheduled games as defeats:

1	Australia	773
2	Japan	761
3	Korea Republic	709
4	Iran	582
5	China PR	515
6	Saudi Arabia	471
7	Bahrain	455
8	Qatar	448
9	Uzbekistan	444
10	Jordan	416
11	Syria	412
12	Kuwait	402
13	Iraq	384
13	United Arab Emirates	384
15	Oman	382
16	Indonesia	354
17	Thailand	342
18	Singapore	315
19	Korea DPR	314
20	Lebanon	202

 
Pot 1: Australia, Japan
Pot 2: Korea Republic, Iran
Pot 3: China PR, Saudi Arabia
Pot 4: Bahrain, Uzbekistan, Jordan, Kuwait

It's Kuwait instead of Qatar because there must be two teams from each group. Iran (Pot 1) and Bahrain (Pot 4) are in Group E with Qatar and Indonesia.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding update (12 August 2011)

Next update: 9 September 2011

See more info in the original 2014 FIFA World Cup seeding post.

This is the top 20 of the intermediate October 2013 FIFA ranking:

1	Spain	320
2	Netherlands	319
3	Uruguay	304
4	Germany	277
5	Argentina	240
6	Brazil	227
7	Portugal	218
8	Japan	216
9	Chile	215
10	England	203
11	Mexico	197
12	Côte d'Ivoire	187
13	Norway	186
14	Italy	184
15	Egypt	183
16	Australia	181
17	Jamaica	175
18	Korea Republic	174
18	Sweden	174
20	Peru	173

France are 22nd, USA 29th.

Right now, the seeds for the 2014 World Cup would be: Brazil, Spain, Netherlands, Uruguay, Germany, Argentina, Portugal and Japan. 

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding update (5 August 2011)

Next update: 12 August 2011

See more info in the original 2014 FIFA World Cup seeding post.

This is the top 20 of the intermediate October 2013 FIFA ranking:

1	Netherlands	395
2	Spain	394
3	Uruguay	344
4	Germany	317
5	Portugal	279
6	Argentina	276
7	Japan	268
8	Brazil	265
9	Chile	258
10	England	242
11	Italy	239
12	Sweden	238
13	Mexico	231
13	Croatia	231
15	Belgium	227
16	France	220
17	Korea Republic	216
18	Peru	214
19	Australia	207
19	Norway	207

Right now, the seeds for the 2014 World Cup would be: Brazil, Spain, Netherlands, Uruguay, Germany, Portugal, Argentina and Japan.

I'm not very popular in Wales

BBC mentioned me again in one of their articles. The reaction in Wales was, well, not very benign.

Geek, mega-nerd, give him a smack, "I don't like you" and obviously the F-word salutation. :)

Apparently it's my fault Wales are in pot 6.

Couple of things to point out.

1. The newspapers said FIFA made an error. This is not 100% correct. We will never know if FIFA would have actually placed Wales in Pot 5.

2. I would have written similar articles if the situation would have been the other way around (i.e. Wales wrongly displayed below the Faroe Islands in the rankings).

3. I wrote to FAW on May 27 telling them they are in danger of falling in Pot 6. Actually, I wrote to all (yes, all) UEFA/CAF associations about the pots as soon as their team were locked in a pot.

4. Wales would have needed only a win against American Samoa in June or July in order to climb in Pot 5 at the expense of the Faroe Islands.

5. Wales could have asked me what they need to do to avoid Pot 6.

6. Who knows, maybe Wales and Faroe Islands will be in same group. Happened four years ago with Azerbaijan and Liechtenstein.

P.S. Something good came out of the BBC article. I got a job offer in London thanks to it. Won't be going though.

Mozambique ponder what could have been

Well, they don't actually ponder, I do :)

FIFA's schedule states the deadline for matches to be included in the ranking calculation is on the Thursday prior to the release date.

They usually include matches played after the deadline, especially competitive matches. However, last month they've also included a friendly played on Saturday, 25 June: Kenya - Sudan 1 - 2.

Liberia defeated Gambia on Sunday, 24 July, but FIFA chose not to include it in the July ranking calculation. If this match would have been included, Gambia would have dropped from Pot 3 to Pot 5 (and forced to play in Round 1), while Mozambique would have taken their place.

See the official CAF pots.