Friday, August 5, 2011

FIFA Ranking: August 2011 probable ranking

Next update: 12 August 2011.

Spain's top position finally in danger. If Spain lose against Italy and Netherlands defeat England, Netherlands will overtake Spain. If Spain manage a draw and Netherlands get the 3 points, they will be tied for 1st place with 1581 points.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

Probable August 2011 rank - Team - Probable August 2011 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points


1 Spain 1616 0 28
2 Netherlands 1581 0 39
3 Germany 1330 0 25
4 Uruguay 1174 1 18
5 Brazil 1156 -1 -46
6 England 1112 0 -34
7 Portugal 1060 0 -16
8 Italy 1055 0 -4
9 Argentina 1017 1 4
10 Croatia 1009 -1 -24
11 Chile 959 0 -14
12 Norway 943 0 -29
13 Russia 940 5 26
14 Greece 937 -1 -22
15 Montenegro 927 2 12
16 Côte d'Ivoire 919 -2 -3
17 France 918 -2 -2
18 Japan 913 -2 -5
19 Mexico 864 1 -5
20 Sweden 858 -1 -26
21 Denmark 857 0 0
22 Slovenia 849 0 16
23 Australia 834 0 3
24 Turkey 811 0 -9
25 Paraguay 807 1 3
26 Peru 806 -1 1
27 USA 792 3 14
28 Serbia 784 -1 -13
29 Slovakia 780 0 1
30 Switzerland 758 0 -20
31 Republic of Ireland 754 2 2
32 Israel 747 0 -24
33 Korea Republic 741 -5 -40
34 Ghana 740 2 44
35 Egypt 738 -1 3
36 Colombia 730 -1 23
37 Belgium 657 0 -34
38 Bosnia-Herzegovina 656 3 14
38 Venezuela 656 2 8
40 Burkina Faso 646 -1 -15
41 Senegal 641 5 22
42 Czech Republic 635 -4 -35
43 Jamaica 631 1 -1
44 Nigeria 625 -1 -10
45 Belarus 617 -3 -19
46 Ukraine 615 -1 -5
47 Hungary 613 0 10
48 Algeria 612 4 37
49 Bulgaria 604 -1 5
50 South Africa 602 -1 5
51 Cameroon 582 -1 -13
52 Honduras 567 -1 -25
53 Romania 558 0 -13
54 Iran 556 0 -5
55 Lithuania 552 3 26
56 Northern Ireland 545 6 47
57 Tunisia 543 -2 -10
58 Costa Rica 537 -2 5
59 Georgia 522 -2 -8
60 Scotland 518 1 5
61 Panama 514 4 27
62 Libya 504 1 10
63 Poland 498 6 24
64 Albania 491 -5 -33
65 Austria 490 1 11
66 Gabon 482 -6 -35
67 Ecuador 474 0 -4
68 Morocco 472 -5 -22
69 Guinea 465 -1 -10
70 Armenia 456 0 -6
71 China PR 446 2 10
72 Cape Verde Islands 444 10 47
73 Malawi 436 -1 -3
74 Zambia 434 0 -1
75 Cyprus 427 5 29
76 Botswana 424 -5 -16
77 Uganda 411 -1 -6
78 Mali 408 -1 -8
79 El Salvador 404 -1 3
80 Latvia 401 3 13
81 Uzbekistan 399 2 11
82 Benin 394 4 14
82 Bolivia 394 -2 -4
84 Finland 390 -9 -29
84 Zimbabwe 390 2 10
86 Estonia 374 -7 -25
87 Niger 370 11 39
87 Saudi Arabia 370 5 17
89 Moldova 364 -4 -19
90 Qatar 355 0 -14
91 Angola 354 9 25
92 Sierra Leone 348 1 0
93 Jordan 346 -2 -15
94 New Zealand 345 0 0
94 Trinidad and Tobago 345 -6 -34
96 Syria 343 8 19
97 FYR Macedonia 340 -1 2
97 Kuwait 340 -2 1
99 Cuba 327 0 -3
99 Mozambique 327 4 0
101 Bahrain 324 -1 -5
102 Sudan 322 -5 -11
103 Canada 319 2 5
104 Central African Republic 316 -15 -54
105 Antigua and Barbuda 308 1 0
106 Oman 307 1 1
107 United Arab Emirates 297 2 -3
108 Iraq 288 0 -15
109 Gambia 287 -9 -42
110 Suriname 285 0 -11
111 Azerbaijan 283 0 1
112 Faroe Islands 273 0 0
113 Guatemala 261 2 1
114 Guyana 260 0 -9
115 Korea DPR 254 0 -6
116 Wales 251 -4 -22
117 Grenada 250 3 3
118 Liechtenstein 248 0 -5
119 Haiti 244 -2 -12
119 Thailand 244 0 -7
121 St. Kitts and Nevis 239 1 -4
122 Iceland 232 -1 -12
123 Togo 231 0 -7
124 Congo DR 230 -1 -8
125 Tanzania 228 2 -2
126 Liberia 221 -1 -11
127 Kazakhstan 216 -1 -15
128 Luxembourg 211 0 -2
129 Singapore 207 2 8
129 Vietnam 207 15 44
131 Congo 201 -2 -5
132 Indonesia 199 5 16
133 Dominican Republic 198 -1 0
133 Kenya 198 -3 -6
133 Yemen 198 2 10
136 Dominica 193 -3 0
137 Rwanda 192 -3 2
138 Nepal 191 -2 7
139 Bangladesh 181 8 33
140 Fiji 180 16 51
141 Turkmenistan 179 -3 3
142 Namibia 169 -2 1
143 Puerto Rico 167 -2 0
144 Ethiopia 166 -5 -4
145 Burundi 164 -2 0
146 Barbados 156 -1 0
147 Malaysia 155 -1 0
148 Belize 146 0 0
149 US Virgin Islands 144 0 0
150 Bahamas 141 2 0
151 Madagascar 140 -2 -4
152 Equatorial Guinea 139 3 8
153 Chad 131 5 4
153 Tajikistan 131 -11 -35
155 Guinea-Bissau 130 -4 -12
155 Hong Kong 130 -1 -3
157 Maldives 117 3 2
158 Lebanon 116 1 -3
159 Palestine 115 7 19
160 India 112 -7 -23
160 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 112 1 0
162 Mongolia 105 1 0
162 Philippines 105 0 -3
162 Vanuatu 105 7 12
165 New Caledonia 104 -1 0
166 Curacao 103 -9 -25
167 Myanmar 99 -2 0
168 Chinese Taipei 96 -2 0
169 Aruba 92 -1 -3
170 Pakistan 91 1 0
171 Cayman Islands 90 1 0
171 Swaziland 90 -2 -3
173 Solomon Islands 86 8 16
174 Sri Lanka 85 2 6
175 Cambodia 82 -1 1
176 Kyrgyzstan 79 3 7
177 Malta 77 -4 -6
178 Nicaragua 75 -1 0
179 Tahiti 74 3 17
180 Afghanistan 70 -1 -2
180 Laos 70 -3 -5
182 Comoros 63 -7 -17
183 St. Lucia 54 0 0
184 Seychelles 51 15 44
185 Lesotho 41 -1 -3
186 Bermuda 40 -1 0
187 British Virgin Islands 38 -1 0
188 Mauritius 33 7 23
189 Eritrea 29 -1 0
190 Mauritania 27 -3 -5
191 Samoa 26 -2 0
192 Macau 25 -2 0
193 Somalia 23 -2 0
194 Tonga 15 -2 0
195 Turks and Caicos Islands 13 -2 0
196 Djibouti 12 -2 0
197 Cook Islands 10 -2 0
197 Guam 10 -2 0
199 Brunei Darussalam 9 -1 0
200 Anguilla 7 -1 0
201 Bhutan 6 0 0
202 Timor-Leste 3 0 0
203 American Samoa 0 0 0
203 Andorra 0 0 0
203 Montserrat 0 0 0
203 San Marino 0 0 0
 

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

FIFA Ranking: August 2011 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the August 2011 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

07/Aug Comoros - Maldives 2 (Friendly)
07/Aug Seychelles - Mauritius 1 (Friendly)
07/Aug El Salvador - Venezuela 2 (Friendly)
09/Aug Ghana - Nigeria 1 (Friendly)
09/Aug Mauritius - Comoros 1 (Friendly)
09/Aug Seychelles - Maldives X (Friendly)
10/Aug Norway - Czech Republic 1 (Friendly)
10/Aug Germany - Brazil 1 (Friendly)
10/Aug Austria - Slovakia X (Friendly)
10/Aug Poland - Georgia 1 (Friendly)
10/Aug Latvia - Finland X (Friendly)
10/Aug France - Chile X (Friendly)
10/Aug Tahiti - Solomon Islands X (Friendly)
10/Aug Bolivia - Panama X (Friendly)
10/Aug Albania - Montenegro 2 (Friendly)
10/Aug Scotland - Denmark X (Friendly)
10/Aug Slovenia - Belgium 1 (Friendly)
10/Aug Senegal - Morocco 1 (Friendly)
10/Aug Bosnia-Herzegovina - Greece X (Friendly)
10/Aug Lithuania - Armenia 1 (Friendly)
10/Aug Republic of Ireland - Croatia X (Friendly)
10/Aug Japan - Korea Republic 1 (Friendly)
10/Aug Zimbabwe - Zambia X (Friendly)
10/Aug Honduras - Venezuela 2 (Friendly)
10/Aug Haiti - Trinidad and Tobago X (Friendly)
10/Aug Turkey - Estonia 1 (Friendly)
10/Aug China PR - Jamaica X (Friendly)
10/Aug USA - Mexico X (Friendly)
10/Aug Gambia - Congo DR X (Friendly)
10/Aug Tunisia - Mali 1 (Friendly)
10/Aug South Africa - Burkina Faso 1 (Friendly)
10/Aug Gabon - Guinea X (Friendly)
10/Aug Liberia - Angola 2 (Friendly)
10/Aug Costa Rica - Ecuador X (Friendly)
10/Aug Botswana - Kenya 1 (Friendly)
10/Aug Equatorial Guinea - Guinea-Bissau X (Friendly)
10/Aug Kuwait - Korea DPR 1 (Friendly)
10/Aug Qatar - Iraq X (Friendly)
10/Aug Sudan - Ethiopia 1 (Friendly)
10/Aug Oman - Bahrain X (Friendly)
10/Aug San Marino - Romania 2 (Friendly)
10/Aug Malta - Central African Republic X (Friendly)
10/Aug Russia - Serbia 1 (Friendly)
10/Aug Northern Ireland - Faroe Islands 1 (Continental Qualifier)
10/Aug Hungary - Iceland 1 (Friendly)
10/Aug Wales - Australia 2 (Friendly)
10/Aug England - Netherlands 2 (Friendly)
10/Aug Cyprus - Moldova 1 (Friendly)
10/Aug Belarus - Bulgaria X (Friendly)
10/Aug Azerbaijan - FYR Macedonia X (Friendly)
10/Aug Kazakhstan - Syria 2 (Friendly)
10/Aug Côte dIvoire - Israel 1 (Friendly)
10/Aug Liechtenstein - Switzerland 2 (Friendly)
10/Aug Italy - Spain 2 (Friendly)
10/Aug Ukraine - Sweden X (Friendly)
10/Aug Portugal - Luxembourg 1 (Friendly)
13/Aug Tahiti - Solomon Islands X (Friendly)
14/Aug Liberia - Ethiopia X (Friendly)
14/Aug Malaysia - Indonesia X (Friendly)
16/Aug Fiji - Samoa 1 (Friendly)
17/Aug Oman - Kuwait X (Friendly)
18/Aug Fiji - Samoa 1 (Friendly)

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

FIFA Ranking: August 2011 preview

Next update: 12 August 2011.

Spain's top position finally in danger. If Spain lose against Italy and Netherlands defeat England, Netherlands will overtake Spain. If Spain manage a draw and Netherlands get the 3 points, they will be tied for 1st place with 1581 points.

Most points dropped (best case scenario):


-38 - Central African Republic
-35 - Tajikistan
-29 - Norway
-25 - Curacao
-23 - Gambia
-23 - India
-22 - Trinidad and Tobago
-20 - Switzerland
-16 - Portugal
-16 - Botswana


Most points gained (worst case scenario):


47 - Cape Verde Islands
44 - Vietnam
39 - Niger
37 - Algeria
33 - Bangladesh
23 - Colombia
22 - Panama
19 - Palestine
18 - Uruguay
17 - Saudi Arabia

July 2011 rank - Country - July 2011 points - Minimum points - Maximum points


1 Spain 1588 1563 1616
2 Netherlands 1542 1528 1581
3 Germany 1305 1281 1330
4 Brazil 1202 1156 1205
5 Uruguay 1156 1174 1174
6 England 1146 1112 1178
7 Portugal 1076 1038 1060
8 Italy 1059 1055 1110
9 Croatia 1033 992 1042
10 Argentina 1013 1017 1017
11 Chile 973 946 986
12 Norway 972 895 943
13 Greece 959 922 966
14 Côte d'Ivoire 922 852 919
15 France 920 903 950
16 Japan 918 879 913
17 Montenegro 915 874 927
18 Russia 914 893 940
19 Sweden 884 842 889
20 Mexico 869 856 881
21 Denmark 857 841 888
22 Slovenia 833 800 849
23 Australia 831 818 834
24 Turkey 820 771 811
25 Peru 805 806 806
26 Paraguay 804 807 807
27 Serbia 797 784 834
28 Korea Republic 781 741 774
29 Slovakia 779 766 806
30 Switzerland 778 731 758
30 USA 778 780 816
32 Israel 771 747 799
33 Republic of Ireland 752 739 783
34 Egypt 735 738 738
35 Colombia 707 730 730
36 Ghana 696 695 740
37 Belgium 691 657 710
38 Czech Republic 670 635 692
39 Burkina Faso 661 646 702
40 Venezuela 648 615 656
41 Bosnia-Herzegovina 642 637 693
42 Belarus 636 604 645
43 Nigeria 635 625 678
44 Jamaica 632 623 646
45 Ukraine 620 598 648
46 Senegal 619 591 641
47 Hungary 603 591 613
48 Bulgaria 599 586 639
49 South Africa 597 550 602
50 Cameroon 595 582 582
51 Honduras 592 567 589
52 Algeria 575 612 612
53 Romania 571 545 558
54 Iran 561 556 556
55 Tunisia 553 498 543
56 Costa Rica 532 531 549
57 Georgia 530 522 561
58 Lithuania 526 509 552
59 Albania 524 491 546
60 Gabon 517 466 514
61 Scotland 513 500 554
62 Northern Ireland 498 479 545
63 Libya 494 504 504
63 Morocco 494 472 529
65 Panama 487 509 525
66 Austria 479 472 524
67 Ecuador 478 466 491
68 Guinea 475 447 499
69 Poland 474 465 498
70 Armenia 462 456 509
71 Botswana 440 409 424
72 Malawi 439 436 436
73 China PR 436 439 461
74 Zambia 435 426 450
75 Finland 419 377 416
76 Uganda 417 411 411
77 Mali 416 408 461
78 El Salvador 401 404 431
79 Estonia 399 374 412
80 Bolivia 398 380 422
80 Cyprus 398 384 427
82 Cape Verde Islands 397 444 444
83 Latvia 388 388 429
83 Uzbekistan 388 399 399
85 Moldova 383 364 404
86 Benin 380 394 394
86 Zimbabwe 380 369 434
88 Trinidad and Tobago 379 339 357
89 Central African Republic 370 309 332
90 Qatar 369 351 364
91 Jordan 361 346 346
92 Saudi Arabia 353 370 370
93 Sierra Leone 348 348 348
94 New Zealand 345 345 345
95 Kuwait 339 331 345
96 FYR Macedonia 338 331 358
97 Sudan 333 308 322
98 Niger 331 370 370
99 Cuba 330 327 327
100 Angola 329 330 354
100 Bahrain 329 320 331
100 Gambia 329 277 306
103 Mozambique 327 327 327
104 Syria 324 333 343
105 Canada 314 319 319
106 Antigua and Barbuda 308 308 308
107 Oman 306 298 326
108 Iraq 303 284 294
109 United Arab Emirates 300 297 297
110 Suriname 296 285 285
111 Azerbaijan 282 272 306
112 Faroe Islands 273 273 403
112 Wales 273 251 312
114 Guyana 269 260 260
115 Guatemala 260 261 261
115 Korea DPR 260 254 269
117 Haiti 256 228 277
118 Liechtenstein 253 248 312
119 Thailand 251 244 244
120 Grenada 247 250 250
121 Iceland 244 232 298
122 St. Kitts and Nevis 243 239 239
123 Congo DR 238 222 245
123 Togo 238 231 231
125 Liberia 232 213 273
126 Kazakhstan 231 216 249
127 Tanzania 230 228 228
128 Luxembourg 213 211 264
129 Congo 206 201 201
130 Kenya 204 198 219
131 Singapore 199 207 207
132 Dominican Republic 198 198 198
133 Dominica 193 193 193
134 Rwanda 190 192 192
135 Yemen 188 198 198
136 Nepal 184 191 191
137 Indonesia 183 195 205
138 Turkmenistan 176 179 179
139 Ethiopia 170 161 196
140 Namibia 168 169 169
141 Puerto Rico 167 167 167
142 Tajikistan 166 131 131
143 Burundi 164 164 164
144 Vietnam 163 207 207
145 Barbados 156 156 156
146 Malaysia 155 152 162
147 Bangladesh 148 181 181
148 Belize 146 146 146
149 Madagascar 144 140 140
149 US Virgin Islands 144 144 144
151 Guinea-Bissau 142 124 142
152 Bahamas 141 141 141
153 India 135 112 112
154 Hong Kong 133 130 130
155 Equatorial Guinea 131 131 156
156 Fiji 129 129 180
157 Curacao 128 103 103
158 Chad 127 131 131
159 Lebanon 119 116 116
160 Maldives 115 101 124
161 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 112 112 112
162 Philippines 108 105 105
163 Mongolia 105 105 105
164 New Caledonia 104 104 104
165 Myanmar 99 99 99
166 Chinese Taipei 96 96 96
166 Palestine 96 115 115
168 Aruba 95 92 92
169 Swaziland 93 90 90
169 Vanuatu 93 105 105
171 Pakistan 91 91 91
172 Cayman Islands 90 90 90
173 Malta 83 64 103
174 Cambodia 81 82 82
175 Comoros 80 63 95
176 Sri Lanka 79 85 85
177 Laos 75 70 70
177 Nicaragua 75 75 75
179 Afghanistan 72 70 70
179 Kyrgyzstan 72 79 79
181 Solomon Islands 70 72 114
182 Tahiti 57 57 108
183 St. Lucia 54 54 54
184 Lesotho 44 41 41
185 Bermuda 40 40 40
186 British Virgin Islands 38 38 38
187 Mauritania 32 27 27
188 Eritrea 29 29 29
189 Samoa 26 26 76
190 Macau 25 25 25
191 Somalia 23 23 23
192 Tonga 15 15 15
193 Turks and Caicos Islands 13 13 13
194 Djibouti 12 12 12
195 Cook Islands 10 10 10
195 Guam 10 10 10
195 Mauritius 10 15 52
198 Brunei Darussalam 9 9 9
199 Anguilla 7 7 7
199 Seychelles 7 16 68
201 Bhutan 6 6 6
202 Timor-Leste 3 3 3
203 American Samoa 0 0 0
203 Andorra 0 0 0
203 Montserrat 0 0 0
203 San Marino 0 0 49

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding update (5 August 2011)

Next update: 12 August 2011

See more info in the original 2014 FIFA World Cup seeding post.

This is the top 20 of the intermediate October 2013 FIFA ranking:


1 Netherlands 395
2 Spain 394
3 Uruguay 344
4 Germany 317
5 Portugal 279
6 Argentina 276
7 Japan 268
8 Brazil 265
9 Chile 258
10 England 242
11 Italy 239
12 Sweden 238
13 Mexico 231
13 Croatia 231
15 Belgium 227
16 France 220
17 Korea Republic 216
18 Peru 214
19 Australia 207
19 Norway 207


Right now, the seeds for the 2014 World Cup would be: Brazil, Spain, Netherlands, Uruguay, Germany, Portugal, Argentina and Japan.

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

July 2011: FIFA Ranking vs. Elo Ratings

Top 10 differences for countries with a better Elo Rating:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference


Solomon Islands 181 116 65
Canada 105 59 46
Fiji 156 113 43
Iraq 108 66 42
Vanuatu 169 130 39
Syria 104 68 36
Kuwait 95 60 35
Wales 112 77 35
New Caledonia 164 129 35
Oman 107 74 33

Top 10 differences for countries with a better FIFA Ranking:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference


US Virgin Islands 149 197 -48
Algeria 52 94 -42
Nepal 136 176 -40
Luxembourg 128 165 -37
Sierra Leone 93 128 -35
Faroe Islands 112 147 -35
Dominican Republic 132 167 -35
Liechtenstein 118 152 -34
Puerto Rico 141 175 -34
Dominica 133 166 -33

Top 50 nations only (in the top 50 in at least one of the rankings)

Top 10 differences for countries with a better Elo Rating:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference


Ecuador 67 39 28
China PR 73 47 26
Poland 69 45 24
Iran 54 34 20
Ukraine 45 27 18
Romania 53 38 15
Scotland 61 46 15
Republic of Ireland 33 19 14
Korea Republic 28 16 12
Ghana 36 25 11

Top 10 differences for countries with a better FIFA Ranking:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference


Burkina Faso 39 69 -30
Slovakia 29 57 -28
Montenegro 17 41 -24
Slovenia 22 44 -22
Greece 13 33 -20
Belarus 42 58 -16
Bosnia-Herzegovina 41 56 -15
Belgium 37 50 -13
Norway 12 24 -12
Denmark 21 31 -10
   
Matches I would have liked to see before the next ranking:

Ecuador - Slovakia
China PR - Albania
Poland - Algeria
Iran - Montenegro
Ukraine - Slovenia
Romania - Burkina Faso
Scotland - Georgia
Republic of Ireland - Belarus
Korea Republic - Greece
Ghana - Bosnia-Herzegovina

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

Football officials and the FIFA Ranking

Football officials always make me chuckle when they talk about the FIFA ranking.

Let's take Gary Speed first. Two quotes from this WalesOnline article.

"the only way to remedy this situation is to win games. It’s up to the players and myself to sort this out"

"I don’t really understand the points system they use to determine these rankings and I’m sure a lot of others don’t either."

I don't expect the coach to be very knowledgeable about this subject - it's not among his responsibilities. But someone at FAW should have some knowledge. It's like saying "We want to climb in the ranking, but we know nothing about it."

Moving on to Asia - Philippines to be more exact. Dan Palami, team manager, wants the Azkals to climb to 120th from their current position of 162nd (see the interview in the Manila Times. Thanks Filipino Football!)

Grenada are 120th - with 247 points. As Philippines will be involved in a series of friendlies matches against Asian opposition it will be impossible for them to get such a high total. There are two ways: play against high ranked teams or wait until the next World Cup qualifiers. In order to have around 250 points they need to play friendlies against countries that would bring them at least 300 points (to compensate the small amount of points available against Asian opposition). In August that would mean playing against Cape Verde Islands, Malawi, Algeria, Libya or Uganda. But how likely are the Azkals to get the 3 points against such teams?

It's easy to look at the ranking table and say "Sure, we can rise to a certain position". But you also need to see what's needed to accomplish your goal.

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.