December 2014: Recommended friendly impact

The best opponent to play against is determined using a combination of Elo ratings and FIFA rankings. Let's look at the December 2014 FIFA ranking and we'll see the impact of one extra friendly. The difference in ranking is computed assuming all things remain equal, except the points of the given team and their recommended opponent.

The most popular opponent were again Northern Ireland (70), followed by Antigua and Barbuda (59) and American Samoa (29).

UEFA Nations League update (12 December 2014)

Long overdue post. I know I promised to update the UNL coefficients, but didn't quite find the time until now.

All you need to know about this competition can be found on UEFA.com.

Analyzing the AFC member association ranking

The FIFA ranking is really making a comeback in Asia. About 4 years ago, AFC chose to seed the final draw for the 2011 AFC Asian Cup using previous tournament performance. Australia were at that time 19th in the World and 1st in AFC, yet were placed in the 2nd pot, based on their (not so impressive) 2007 AFC Asian Cup showing. For those who don't remember, they were eliminated in the quarter-finals. Asked by (most likely annoyed) Australian journalists, here's what Ali Al-Hamdani, AFC spokesman, had to say: "We see no reason to follow FIFA rankings".

FIFA Ranking: December 2014 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 18 December.

Only one match left:

13/Dec Uzbekistan - Palestine (Friendly)

2015 Africa Cup of Nations simulations

10000 simulations using Elo ratings to generate score lines (more about this on clubelo.com).

Top 10 most likely finals:

3.32% - Cameroon vs. Côte d'Ivoire
3.18% - Algeria vs. Ghana
2.64% - Algeria vs. Côte d'Ivoire
2.62% - Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ghana
2.29% - Côte d'Ivoire vs. South Africa
2.24% - Ghana vs. Senegal
2.02% - Algeria vs. Senegal
1.99% - Côte d'Ivoire vs. Tunisia
1.98% - Côte d'Ivoire vs. Senegal
1.92% - Ghana vs. Tunisia

2015 AFC Asian Cup simulations

10000 simulations using Elo ratings to generate score lines (more about this on clubelo.com).

Top 10 most likely finals:

6.94% - Australia vs. Japan
4.37% - Australia vs. Korea Republic
3.79% - Iran vs. Japan
3.55% - Japan vs. United Arab Emirates
3.41% - Australia vs. Uzbekistan
3.35% - Australia vs. Iran
2.83% - Iran vs. United Arab Emirates
2.71% - Japan vs. Korea Republic
2.40% - Japan vs. Jordan
2.35% - Australia vs. Oman

November 2014: Recommended friendly impact

The best opponent to play against is determined using a combination of Elo ratings and FIFA rankings. Let's look at the November 2014 FIFA ranking and we'll see the impact of one extra friendly. The difference in ranking is computed assuming all things remain equal, except the points of the given team and their recommended opponent.

The most popular opponent were again a team from the UK - this time Northern Ireland (64), followed by Dominican Republic (42) and Antigua and Barbuda (36).