Friday, July 8, 2011

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): 10000 simulations (8 July 2011)

I ran 10000 simulations using the Elo Ratings.

Assumption: Indonesia will somehow avoid being suspended by FIFA.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): Simulation results by team (8 July 2011)
2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): Simulation results by pot (8 July 2011)

Kuwait's chances for Pot 2 have improved by 24.71% after their friendly results, but they are still outsiders. Bahrain are no longer safe in Pot 2.

No changes in the pots.

Based on these 10000 simulations, this is most likely composition of pots. In each pot, teams are sorted alphabetically, so don't read anything into their order.

Pot 1: Australia, China PR, Iran, Japan, Korea Republic
Pot 2: Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Uzbekistan
Pot 3: Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Syria, United Arab Emirates
Pot 4: Korea DPR, Lebanon, Singapore, Thailand, Turkmenistan 

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.


  1. Edgar, any idea why the first two rounds of Asian qualifying have the HIGHER seed playing the first game home instead of away? Usually, isn't the higher seed playing the second game home to give them home-field advantage if extra time or PKs are needed? (First round of CONCACAF had higher seed playing first game away and look at St Lucia!)

  2. @ Dorian

    I noticed that too and found it very curious. You'd think if they weren't going to randomise it, they'd try to help the seed, not the unseed. Unless they're looking at the bigger picture and trying to smooth the passage of the auto qualifiers to the World Cup.

    I doubt it though. More likely they just didn't bother thinking about it, and drew the seeds first and stuck them on the left side of a piece of paper, so they were playing first.

    They've done the same thing in Asian Olympic qualifying as well, all the seeds ploaying at home in the first leg in the preliminary rounds in all the matches.

  3. I really didn't notice and I can't explain it. Maybe someone who actually saw the draw could explain.

  4. @ Dorian and Edgar

    I watched the draws for both rounds of World Cup qualifying and also the Round 2 draw for Asian Olympic qualifying. Unfortunately the reason why seeds play at home was not explained, only that that is how it would be.