FIFA will publish the ranking on September 20th.
Lots of matches for the UEFA Nations League groups, CONCACAF Nations League qualifiers, CAF Nations Cup qualifiers, a few regional Asian tournaments and also still a reasonable amount of friendlies.
Also check the probable September ranking.
August 2018 rank - Country - August 2018 points - Minimum points - Maximum points
1 |
France |
1726 |
1707 |
1736 |
2 |
Belgium |
1723 |
1704 |
1729 |
3 |
Brazil |
1657 |
1643 |
1663 |
4 |
Croatia |
1643 |
1629 |
1654 |
5 |
Uruguay |
1627 |
1622 |
1632 |
6 |
England |
1615 |
1607 |
1622 |
7 |
Portugal |
1599 |
1586 |
1611 |
8 |
Switzerland |
1597 |
1588 |
1603 |
9 |
Denmark |
1580 |
1566 |
1591 |
9 |
Spain |
1580 |
1567 |
1597 |
11 |
Argentina |
1574 |
1560 |
1580 |
12 |
Chile |
1570 |
1557 |
1577 |
13 |
Sweden |
1565 |
1550 |
1575 |
14 |
Colombia |
1563 |
1552 |
1572 |
15 |
Germany |
1561 |
1556 |
1571 |
16 |
Mexico |
1560 |
1550 |
1570 |
17 |
Netherlands |
1540 |
1530 |
1555 |
18 |
Poland |
1538 |
1525 |
1550 |
19 |
Wales |
1536 |
1521 |
1551 |
20 |
Peru |
1535 |
1530 |
1540 |
21 |
Italy |
1532 |
1518 |
1548 |
22 |
USA |
1508 |
1500 |
1520 |
23 |
Austria |
1502 |
1489 |
1514 |
24 |
Tunisia |
1498 |
1478 |
1503 |
24 |
Senegal |
1498 |
1479 |
1504 |
26 |
Slovakia |
1493 |
1481 |
1506 |
27 |
Northern Ireland |
1492 |
1477 |
1502 |
28 |
Romania |
1490 |
1474 |
1504 |
29 |
Republic of Ireland |
1484 |
1473 |
1498 |
30 |
Paraguay |
1477 |
1477 |
1477 |
31 |
Venezuela |
1476 |
1472 |
1482 |
32 |
Iran |
1471 |
1464 |
1474 |
32 |
Costa Rica |
1471 |
1460 |
1480 |
32 |
Iceland |
1471 |
1461 |
1491 |
35 |
Ukraine |
1468 |
1453 |
1483 |
36 |
Serbia |
1459 |
1441 |
1471 |
37 |
Congo DR |
1456 |
1435 |
1460 |
38 |
Turkey |
1455 |
1441 |
1471 |
39 |
Bosnia-Herzegovina |
1452 |
1438 |
1468 |
40 |
Scotland |
1444 |
1433 |
1458 |
41 |
Montenegro |
1440 |
1422 |
1452 |
42 |
Greece |
1436 |
1418 |
1448 |
43 |
Australia |
1431 |
1431 |
1431 |
44 |
Czech Republic |
1430 |
1418 |
1443 |
45 |
Ghana |
1424 |
1407 |
1432 |
46 |
Morocco |
1418 |
1400 |
1425 |
47 |
Cameroon |
1416 |
1396 |
1421 |
47 |
Bulgaria |
1416 |
1401 |
1430 |
49 |
Nigeria |
1410 |
1388 |
1413 |
49 |
Russia |
1410 |
1399 |
1423 |
51 |
Hungary |
1409 |
1394 |
1424 |
52 |
Burkina Faso |
1408 |
1391 |
1416 |
53 |
Norway |
1406 |
1390 |
1420 |
54 |
Jamaica |
1400 |
1386 |
1401 |
55 |
Japan |
1392 |
1385 |
1404 |
55 |
Slovenia |
1392 |
1376 |
1406 |
57 |
Korea Republic |
1387 |
1380 |
1400 |
58 |
Albania |
1384 |
1368 |
1398 |
59 |
Bolivia |
1378 |
1378 |
1378 |
60 |
Ecuador |
1376 |
1368 |
1378 |
61 |
Honduras |
1368 |
1368 |
1368 |
62 |
Finland |
1364 |
1348 |
1378 |
63 |
Mali |
1360 |
1340 |
1365 |
64 |
Cape Verde Islands |
1356 |
1337 |
1362 |
65 |
Egypt |
1355 |
1339 |
1364 |
66 |
Algeria |
1351 |
1330 |
1355 |
67 |
Cote d'Ivoire |
1344 |
1326 |
1351 |
67 |
Guinea |
1344 |
1328 |
1353 |
69 |
Panama |
1343 |
1343 |
1343 |
70 |
Saudi Arabia |
1336 |
1336 |
1336 |
70 |
FYR Macedonia |
1336 |
1314 |
1344 |
72 |
El Salvador |
1332 |
1317 |
1342 |
73 |
Syria |
1328 |
1317 |
1337 |
74 |
South Africa |
1327 |
1312 |
1337 |
75 |
China PR |
1320 |
1308 |
1328 |
76 |
Zambia |
1315 |
1299 |
1324 |
77 |
United Arab Emirates |
1312 |
1311 |
1311 |
78 |
Belarus |
1306 |
1282 |
1312 |
79 |
Lebanon |
1304 |
1298 |
1308 |
79 |
Canada |
1304 |
1292 |
1307 |
81 |
Curacao |
1300 |
1288 |
1303 |
82 |
Uganda |
1296 |
1279 |
1304 |
83 |
Congo |
1292 |
1276 |
1301 |
84 |
Oman |
1288 |
1282 |
1292 |
85 |
Luxembourg |
1286 |
1262 |
1292 |
86 |
Gabon |
1284 |
1266 |
1291 |
87 |
Cyprus |
1280 |
1268 |
1298 |
88 |
Benin |
1276 |
1260 |
1285 |
89 |
Iraq |
1274 |
1267 |
1277 |
90 |
Faroe Islands |
1268 |
1246 |
1276 |
91 |
Trinidad and Tobago |
1264 |
1264 |
1264 |
92 |
Kyrgyzstan |
1260 |
1250 |
1270 |
93 |
Israel |
1256 |
1247 |
1272 |
94 |
Estonia |
1250 |
1240 |
1269 |
95 |
Uzbekistan |
1247 |
1240 |
1260 |
96 |
India |
1242 |
1227 |
1247 |
96 |
Georgia |
1242 |
1224 |
1254 |
98 |
Qatar |
1236 |
1227 |
1247 |
99 |
Palestine |
1230 |
1220 |
1240 |
100 |
Armenia |
1227 |
1210 |
1240 |
101 |
Libya |
1224 |
1214 |
1239 |
102 |
Vietnam |
1220 |
1220 |
1220 |
103 |
Niger |
1216 |
1207 |
1232 |
104 |
Haiti |
1212 |
1212 |
1212 |
105 |
Azerbaijan |
1207 |
1187 |
1217 |
106 |
Mauritania |
1200 |
1192 |
1217 |
107 |
Madagascar |
1199 |
1193 |
1218 |
108 |
Korea DPR |
1196 |
1196 |
1196 |
108 |
Central African Republic |
1196 |
1187 |
1212 |
110 |
Jordan |
1192 |
1184 |
1204 |
111 |
Sierra Leone |
1188 |
1172 |
1197 |
112 |
Kenya |
1182 |
1169 |
1204 |
113 |
Bahrain |
1180 |
1171 |
1191 |
114 |
Mozambique |
1176 |
1163 |
1188 |
115 |
Philippines |
1172 |
1167 |
1177 |
116 |
Kazakhstan |
1167 |
1152 |
1182 |
117 |
Namibia |
1166 |
1157 |
1182 |
118 |
Zimbabwe |
1164 |
1155 |
1180 |
119 |
New Zealand |
1157 |
1157 |
1157 |
120 |
Tajikistan |
1156 |
1156 |
1156 |
121 |
Guinea-Bissau |
1148 |
1136 |
1161 |
122 |
Thailand |
1144 |
1144 |
1144 |
123 |
Malawi |
1140 |
1129 |
1164 |
124 |
Togo |
1136 |
1127 |
1152 |
125 |
Chinese Taipei |
1135 |
1129 |
1139 |
126 |
Antigua and Barbuda |
1132 |
1122 |
1137 |
127 |
Lithuania |
1130 |
1123 |
1153 |
128 |
Sudan |
1128 |
1114 |
1139 |
129 |
Latvia |
1122 |
1109 |
1139 |
130 |
Turkmenistan |
1120 |
1120 |
1120 |
130 |
Andorra |
1120 |
1107 |
1136 |
132 |
Nicaragua |
1116 |
1106 |
1121 |
133 |
Yemen |
1112 |
1112 |
1112 |
134 |
Swaziland |
1105 |
1101 |
1126 |
135 |
St. Kitts and Nevis |
1104 |
1094 |
1109 |
136 |
Rwanda |
1100 |
1093 |
1118 |
137 |
Angola |
1096 |
1083 |
1108 |
138 |
Myanmar |
1092 |
1092 |
1092 |
139 |
Botswana |
1089 |
1077 |
1102 |
140 |
Tanzania |
1084 |
1076 |
1101 |
141 |
Kosovo |
1080 |
1069 |
1099 |
142 |
Hong Kong |
1076 |
1076 |
1076 |
143 |
Solomon Islands |
1072 |
1068 |
1078 |
143 |
Equatorial Guinea |
1072 |
1061 |
1086 |
145 |
Afghanistan |
1068 |
1068 |
1068 |
146 |
Guatemala |
1064 |
1064 |
1084 |
146 |
Lesotho |
1064 |
1057 |
1082 |
148 |
Burundi |
1056 |
1046 |
1076 |
149 |
Comoros |
1052 |
1047 |
1072 |
150 |
Maldives |
1048 |
1038 |
1058 |
151 |
Ethiopia |
1044 |
1032 |
1062 |
152 |
Dominican Republic |
1040 |
1040 |
1040 |
153 |
Suriname |
1036 |
1027 |
1042 |
154 |
New Caledonia |
1032 |
1032 |
1032 |
155 |
Mauritius |
1028 |
1023 |
1033 |
156 |
South Sudan |
1024 |
1019 |
1044 |
157 |
Tahiti |
1020 |
1020 |
1020 |
158 |
Liberia |
1016 |
1012 |
1037 |
159 |
Kuwait |
1012 |
1009 |
1019 |
160 |
Barbados |
1005 |
995 |
1010 |
161 |
Nepal |
1004 |
986 |
1016 |
162 |
Vanuatu |
1000 |
1000 |
1000 |
163 |
Belize |
999 |
989 |
1004 |
164 |
Indonesia |
992 |
992 |
992 |
165 |
Fiji |
985 |
976 |
996 |
166 |
Papua New Guinea |
984 |
984 |
984 |
166 |
Cambodia |
984 |
979 |
989 |
168 |
Grenada |
980 |
976 |
991 |
169 |
Singapore |
976 |
967 |
987 |
170 |
St. Lucia |
972 |
967 |
982 |
171 |
Malaysia |
971 |
962 |
982 |
172 |
Gambia |
964 |
959 |
984 |
173 |
Puerto Rico |
960 |
955 |
970 |
173 |
St. Vincent and the Grenadines |
960 |
955 |
970 |
175 |
Moldova |
957 |
951 |
981 |
176 |
Chad |
956 |
956 |
956 |
177 |
Dominica |
952 |
946 |
961 |
178 |
Laos |
948 |
948 |
948 |
178 |
Bermuda |
948 |
940 |
955 |
180 |
Liechtenstein |
944 |
932 |
962 |
181 |
Cuba |
940 |
931 |
946 |
182 |
Guyana |
936 |
929 |
944 |
183 |
Bhutan |
932 |
917 |
947 |
184 |
Malta |
928 |
921 |
951 |
185 |
Macau |
924 |
915 |
930 |
186 |
Sao Tomé e PrÃncipe |
920 |
920 |
920 |
186 |
Mongolia |
920 |
912 |
927 |
188 |
Aruba |
916 |
909 |
924 |
188 |
Seychelles |
916 |
913 |
938 |
190 |
Timor-Leste |
912 |
904 |
919 |
190 |
Guam |
912 |
902 |
922 |
192 |
American Samoa |
908 |
908 |
908 |
192 |
Cook Islands |
908 |
908 |
908 |
194 |
Bangladesh |
904 |
888 |
917 |
195 |
Brunei Darussalam |
900 |
893 |
908 |
195 |
Gibraltar |
900 |
891 |
921 |
197 |
Samoa |
896 |
896 |
896 |
197 |
Djibouti |
896 |
896 |
896 |
199 |
US Virgin Islands |
892 |
889 |
904 |
200 |
Sri Lanka |
888 |
885 |
905 |
201 |
Pakistan |
884 |
871 |
901 |
202 |
Cayman Islands |
880 |
878 |
893 |
203 |
San Marino |
876 |
871 |
901 |
204 |
British Virgin Islands |
872 |
872 |
872 |
204 |
Montserrat |
872 |
870 |
885 |
206 |
Tonga |
868 |
868 |
868 |
206 |
Eritrea |
868 |
868 |
868 |
206 |
Somalia |
868 |
868 |
868 |
206 |
Anguilla |
868 |
868 |
868 |
206 |
Turks and Caicos Islands |
868 |
862 |
877 |
206 |
Bahamas |
868 |
862 |
877 |
| | | | |
About me:
Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.
Here, it is given that maximum points for India is 1247. But in the probable rankings India has 1249 points. There seems to be some mistake.
ReplyDeleteTruthy, no mistake but the exact minimum and maximum points with the new calculation method are just quite difficult to obtain.
ReplyDeleteFor now I have done the following: when I calculate for instance the minimum points for a team I set the scheduled matches for the team to a loss but DO NOT adjust the starting elo-value of the opponents in these matches.
The probable ranking is determined using predicted results for ALL scheduled matches. Starting values for both teams are in that case continuously updated after each match.
So now you see where the differences come from: the starting values of opponents are different in the probable ranking compared to what I use in determining minimum and maximum values. This results in differences like you just spotted for India. The differences should be small, but can not be denied.
I will study on a more accurate method without too much complexity to determine the min/max values. I could f.i. use the predicted starting value for the opponent in a match instead of the static starting value from the current moment. I will apply this new method in next month's preview and spend a few words describing my approach then.
Ah, I see now. Thanks Ed, for all this data crunching.
Delete@Ed,
DeleteNot sure what programming language you use, but it can be done quite easily using dynamic programming. At each point you need to have the minimum points and maximum points for each team so far in memory, and then when calculating the next match of Team A vs Team B, you use the minimum of A and B to get the new minimum points for both teams, and the maximum points to get the new maximum points.
That's not exactly accurate, since if there are 3 matches left B-C, A-B, B and C can't both win the first match, so A's maximum will be wrong, but it is a very easy to implement, will be close approximation, and for one month ahead will be exactly accurate in practice anyway...
DeleteThese Guys at https://www.fctables.com/fifa-rankings/ are claiming to have the Live Fifa Ranking dashboard as of now. It updates in realtime. It would be work knowing how they are determining it? I think it would be valuable to see what your country is ranked as of today rather than every month's 20th.
ReplyDeleteThat is certainly incorrect. It looks like they started with the new point values and then still applied the old formula. When you expand the matches for a team, you can see it's still using the old system.
DeleteIt is clearly written in red letters, at the top of the page, that they are still working to the new formula and now it still doesn't work.
DeleteLooks like we may have a shared top ranking in September. If my calculations are right, Belgium will have 1729.25, and France 1729.12 points, but since FIFA rounds it to the nearest whole number, they will be tied on top.
ReplyDeleteGermany and Sweden will swap places, as well as Peru and Italy, Austria and Tunisia, and Romania and Northern Ireland.
In the top 50, Ukraine will make biggest progress (from 35 to 29), and Bosnia & Herzegovina should go from 39 to 34.
Considering the number of matches played, the changes will be minimal.
I get the exact same numbers as you do with FRA and BEL so that's good news.
DeleteFingers crossed :)
DeleteMe too. I obtained this numbers, hope they are accurate (but i have still to correct the result of the friendly Ecuador-Jamaica that is no more listed in the Fifa website). For the Conacacaf nations league qualifiers I use i=15. http://worldranking.altervista.org/FIFArank/rankingFIFA.htm
DeleteJos,
DeleteI've made a pointswise comparison (on 3 decimals) between your September 2018 FIFA ratings and mine. I found differences for only 12 teams:
team - mine - yours
Lebanon 1307,942 1307,750
Oman 1287,053 1287,242
OMA-LIB is not included by FIFA
Suriname 1034,802 1036,000
Dominica 953,198 952,000
SUR-DMA is not included in your calc ?
Mozambique 1175,329 1179,233
MOZ played only 1 match 8 Sep against GNB (2:2) and lost 0,671 pts; starting value of MOZ = 1176
Madagascar 1205,347 1210,237
Senegal 1491,621 1491,709
Lesotho 1069,996 1070,017
MAD points seem not correct; they played against SEN and LES
Bahrain 1181,184 1177,258
Philippines 1172,077 1172,038
China PR 1312,940 1312,905
BHR points seem not correct; they played against PHI and CHN
Iceland 1461,020 1462,367
??
Thanks for your feedback, Edgar. They are all mistakes in my computation, I will correct shortly.
Delete