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Saturday, September 1, 2018

FIFA ranking: September 2018 probable ranking

FIFA has adopted a new calculation method for their ranking. The elo-like method was used for the first time for the August 2018 ranking, published on August 16th. With that publication and the accompanying document almost all questions around the new calculation method were answered. FIFA was transparant after all about their starting values, how to handle matches that went to extra time and PSO and in what cases teams don't get points deducted. 


Some minor questions are still unanswered though: 
- what to do with the starting value of completely new teams ? I think a new team will start at the lowest existing value in the prevailing ranking as was the case with the previous FIFA ranking method;
- what competitions are exactly "final competitions" according to FIFA ? Obviously the World Cup and each Continental Final categorize as final competitions. But what about the status of the Confederations Cup and the UEFA Nations League finals (and future other Nations League finals) in this respect ? Based on the August ranking we can at least conclude that regional tournaments like the COSAFA Cup don't fall in this category;
- what I-factor will the CONCACAF Nations League qualifiers have ? It can be anything between 25 (continental final qualifier), 15 (Nations League group phase) or 10 (friendly in IMC-window). I will assume for now 15.
We will cross these bridges once we come to them.

Here is the probable September 2018 ranking, to be published on September 20th. This preview is calculated with elo-predicted results for all 134 scheduled matches in FIFA's fixture list.



Probable September 2018 rank - Team - Probable September 2018 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points


1 Belgium 1729 1 6
1 France 1729 0 3
3 Brazil 1663 0 6
4 Uruguay 1632 1 5
5 Croatia 1629 -1 -14
6 England 1614 0 -1
7 Portugal 1611 0 12
8 Switzerland 1603 0 6
9 Spain 1589 0 9
10 Denmark 1586 -1 6
11 Argentina 1575 0 1
12 Sweden 1570 1 5
13 Chile 1567 -1 -3
13 Colombia 1567 1 4
15 Germany 1563 0 2
16 Mexico 1555 0 -5
17 Netherlands 1540 0 0
18 Wales 1536 1 0
19 Poland 1535 -1 -3
20 Italy 1533 1 1
21 Peru 1530 -1 -5
22 USA 1505 0 -3
23 Senegal 1504 1 6
24 Tunisia 1503 0 5
25 Austria 1494 -2 -8
25 Northern Ireland 1494 2 2
27 Romania 1489 1 -1
28 Slovakia 1486 -2 -7
29 Paraguay 1477 1 0
30 Ukraine 1475 5 7
31 Iran 1474 1 3
32 Republic of Ireland 1473 -3 -11
33 Venezuela 1472 -2 -4
34 Serbia 1471 2 12
35 Costa Rica 1465 -3 -6
36 Iceland 1461 -4 -10
36 Bosnia-Herzegovina 1461 3 9
38 Congo DR 1460 -1 4
39 Turkey 1456 -1 1
40 Scotland 1448 0 4
41 Montenegro 1437 0 -3
42 Greece 1433 0 -3
43 Ghana 1432 2 8
44 Czech Republic 1431 0 1
44 Australia 1431 -1 0
46 Morocco 1425 0 7
47 Cameroon 1421 0 5
48 Burkina Faso 1416 4 8
49 Nigeria 1413 0 3
50 Norway 1412 3 6
51 Bulgaria 1408 -4 -8
52 Slovenia 1406 3 14
53 Russia 1404 -4 -6
54 Hungary 1402 -3 -7
55 Jamaica 1401 -1 1
56 Korea Republic 1395 1 8
57 Japan 1394 -2 2
58 Albania 1383 0 -1
59 Ecuador 1378 1 2
59 Finland 1378 3 14
59 Bolivia 1378 0 0
62 Honduras 1368 -1 0
63 Mali 1365 0 5
64 Egypt 1364 1 9
65 Algeria 1355 1 4
66 Guinea 1353 1 9
67 Cote d'Ivoire 1351 0 7
68 Cape Verde Islands 1350 -4 -6
69 FYR Macedonia 1344 1 8
70 Panama 1343 -1 0
71 South Africa 1337 3 10
72 Saudi Arabia 1336 -2 0
73 El Salvador 1332 -1 0
73 Syria 1332 0 4
75 China PR 1318 0 -2
76 Belarus 1312 2 6
77 Zambia 1311 -1 -4
77 United Arab Emirates 1311 0 -1
79 Canada 1307 0 3
80 Uganda 1304 2 8
81 Curacao 1303 0 3
82 Lebanon 1298 -3 -6
83 Luxembourg 1292 2 6
84 Gabon 1291 2 7
85 Congo 1289 -2 -3
86 Oman 1287 -2 -1
87 Benin 1273 1 -3
88 Iraq 1272 1 -2
89 Cyprus 1269 -2 -11
90 Trinidad and Tobago 1264 1 0
91 Faroe Islands 1261 -1 -7
92 Kyrgyzstan 1255 0 -5
93 India 1249 3 7
94 Israel 1247 -1 -9
94 Estonia 1247 0 -3
94 Georgia 1247 2 5
97 Uzbekistan 1245 -2 -2
98 Qatar 1242 0 6
99 Palestine 1225 0 -5
99 Armenia 1225 1 -2
101 Vietnam 1220 1 0
102 Libya 1214 -1 -10
103 Haiti 1212 1 0
104 Azerbaijan 1209 1 2
105 Niger 1207 -2 -9
106 Jordan 1199 4 7
107 Korea DPR 1196 1 0
108 Madagascar 1193 -1 -6
109 Mauritania 1192 -3 -8
110 Mozambique 1188 4 12
111 Central African Republic 1187 -3 -9
112 Bahrain 1186 1 6
113 Sierra Leone 1185 -2 -3
114 Kenya 1179 -2 -3
115 Kazakhstan 1175 1 8
116 Namibia 1170 1 4
117 Philippines 1167 -2 -5
117 Zimbabwe 1167 1 3
119 New Zealand 1157 0 0
120 Tajikistan 1156 0 0
121 Thailand 1144 1 0
122 Togo 1139 2 3
123 Antigua and Barbuda 1137 3 5
124 Guinea-Bissau 1136 -3 -12
125 Chinese Taipei 1134 0 -1
126 Malawi 1129 -3 -11
127 Latvia 1123 2 1
127 Lithuania 1123 0 -7
129 Turkmenistan 1120 1 0
130 Sudan 1114 -2 -14
130 Nicaragua 1114 2 -2
132 Yemen 1112 1 0
133 St. Kitts and Nevis 1109 2 5
134 Andorra 1107 -4 -13
135 Swaziland 1101 -1 -4
136 Angola 1096 1 0
137 Rwanda 1093 -1 -7
138 Myanmar 1092 0 0
138 Kosovo 1092 3 12
140 Botswana 1089 -1 0
141 Equatorial Guinea 1086 2 14
142 Tanzania 1076 -2 -8
142 Hong Kong 1076 0 0
144 Lesotho 1070 2 6
145 Afghanistan 1068 0 0
145 Solomon Islands 1068 -2 -4
147 Guatemala 1064 -1 0
148 Burundi 1049 0 -7
149 Maldives 1048 1 0
150 Ethiopia 1047 1 3
150 Comoros 1047 -1 -5
152 Suriname 1042 1 6
153 Dominican Republic 1040 -1 0
154 New Caledonia 1032 0 0
155 Mauritius 1028 0 0
156 Tahiti 1020 1 0
157 South Sudan 1019 -1 -5
158 Kuwait 1014 1 2
159 Liberia 1012 -1 -4
160 Nepal 1005 1 1
161 Belize 1004 2 5
162 Vanuatu 1000 0 0
163 Fiji 996 2 11
164 Barbados 995 -4 -10
165 Indonesia 992 -1 0
166 Papua New Guinea 984 0 0
167 Cambodia 979 -1 -5
168 Malaysia 977 3 6
169 Grenada 976 -1 -4
170 Singapore 972 -1 -4
171 St. Lucia 967 -1 -5
172 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 962 1 2
173 Gambia 959 -1 -5
174 Chad 956 2 0
175 Bermuda 955 3 7
175 Puerto Rico 955 -2 -5
177 Moldova 951 -2 -6
178 Laos 948 0 0
179 Liechtenstein 947 1 3
180 Cuba 946 1 6
180 Dominica 946 -3 -6
182 Guyana 944 0 8
183 Mongolia 922 3 2
184 Malta 921 0 -7
185 Sao Tomé e Príncipe 920 1 0
186 Guam 917 4 5
186 Bhutan 917 -3 -15
188 Macau 915 -3 -9
189 Timor-Leste 914 1 2
190 Seychelles 913 -2 -3
191 Aruba 909 -3 -7
192 American Samoa 908 0 0
192 Cook Islands 908 0 0
194 Bangladesh 907 0 3
195 Brunei Darussalam 900 0 0
196 Samoa 896 1 0
196 Djibouti 896 1 0
198 Pakistan 892 3 8
199 Gibraltar 891 -4 -9
200 US Virgin Islands 889 -1 -3
201 Sri Lanka 885 -1 -3
202 Cayman Islands 878 0 -2
203 British Virgin Islands 872 1 0
204 San Marino 871 -1 -5
205 Montserrat 870 -1 -2
206 Tonga 868 0 0
206 Eritrea 868 0 0
206 Somalia 868 0 0
206 Anguilla 868 0 0
210 Bahamas 862 -4 -6
210 Turks and Caicos Islands 862 -4 -6

About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

4 comments:

  1. Another minor question (connected with the others) will be the Concacaf Cup, the play-off for the Confederation Cup qualification between the Gold Cup winners, if the Confederations Cup will still be organized. Theoretically the i-constant should be i=40, the question is also here if the loser team can lose points

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  2. Ghana is out of order in the table above, correct probably rank.

    ReplyDelete
  3. But I see what you mean, now that I take a good look at it: the sorting order is not correct. I will fix that, thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  4. In the +/-Points column it is reasonable to show numbers with decimal sign and 0 after it. Just not to mix it up with +/- Rankings

    ReplyDelete