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Friday, February 26, 2016

FIFA Ranking: March 2016 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 3 March.

1 match left. It's Egypt shooting themselves in the foot yet again. You have to admire their persistence. They have a friendly vs. Burkina Faso tomorrow. But who knows? - they might very well make it to Russia 2018 despite doing everything in their power to avoid Pot 1.

Friday, February 12, 2016

2018 FIFA World Cup CAF pot sims (12 February 2016)

The draw will take place on 24 June 2016 and will most likely use the June 2016 FIFA ranking (published on 2 June 2016).

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 10 February 2016.

This is how the pots look like (sorted by average pot over the 10000 simulations)

Friday, February 5, 2016

EURO 2016 sims (5 February 2016)

I actually ran the sims last Friday, but had no time to format the data.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula to run 10000 simulations.

FIFA Ranking: March 2016 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 3 March.

Apparently, FIFA have a mistake in the February ranking points for Congo DR and Burundi. The only explanation I have is the 15 Nov 2015 FIFA World Cup qualifier between these two teams was awarded to Congo DR, despite finishing 2 - 2 on the field. However, while this would solve the point differences, there has been no announcement on FIFA.com.

Ed found the announcement. However, the match still shows up as 2:2 on FIFA.com.