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Friday, April 21, 2017

2019 AFC Asian Cup 3rd round sims (21 April 2017)

The usual 10000 sims after the first match day. Great improvement for India.


AFC MA Ranking update (21 April 2017)

Weighting for the FIFA ranking part of the formula dropped from 30% to 10%. The MA ranking at the end of the club season (November 2017) will be used to determine the slot allocations for the 2019 and 2020 seasons.

Friday, April 7, 2017

FIFA Ranking: May 2017 preview

This will most likely be the final preview for May, as the top 96 is already set. The ranking will be almost identical to the April edition.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 4 May.

AFC MA Ranking update (7 April 2017)

Weighting for the FIFA ranking part of the formula dropped from 30% to 10%. The MA ranking at the end of the club season (November 2017) will be used to determine the slot allocations for the 2019 and 2020 seasons.

Friday, March 31, 2017

Applying the 2026 allocations to the 2014 World Cup

First of all, I must say I'm against the expansion - and I'm saying this as a fan of a team that hasn't been to the World Cup since 1998. Further more, to quote the late David Taylor, I would like to disabuse anyone of the notion that I would embrace the expansion idea as it would give Romania a better chance of qualifying. More on this later in the post.

2018 World Cup simulations (31 March 2017)

The usual 10000 simulations, based on the current Elo ratings and including results up to 29 March 2017.

With the 2017 release dates announced, I've used the October 2017 ranking for the UEFA play-off seeding and, of course, for the final draw seeding.

FIFA Ranking: April 2017 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 6 April.

No matches left.

UEFA Nations League update (31 March 2017)

The coefficient used for the first edition draw will be made up of:

2014 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2016 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2018 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting.

Friday, March 17, 2017

FIFA Ranking: April 2017 preview

Next update: 31 March 2017

125 matches left [Sim results at the end].

Brazil will be the next No. 1 if they win against Uruguay (away) and Paraguay (at home). However, the odds are not in their favor. Argentina (home vs. Chile, away to Bolivia) were 1st in 57.95% of the 10000 simulations I ran, with Brazil with only 42.05%. Of course, Elo ratings don't take into account high altitude.

Friday, March 3, 2017

AFC MA Ranking update (3 March 2017)

Weighting for the FIFA ranking part of the formula dropped from 30% to 10%. The MA ranking at the end of the club season (November 2017) will be used to determine the slot allocations for the 2019 and 2020 seasons.

Friday, February 10, 2017

FIFA Ranking: March 2017 preview

With only 3 matches left (all friendlies) this will most likely be the final preview for March.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 9 March.

Those 3 matches include the battle of the giants: San Marino vs. Andorra.

This is how the points and ranks could change for the teams involved:

Friday, February 3, 2017

FIFA Ranking: February 2017 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 9 February.

3 matches left: a friendly and the final and 3rd place match of the 2017 AFCON.

Friday, January 6, 2017

2019 AFC Asian Cup qualifiers: 3rd round seeding

Guam have pulled out of the competition citing financial issues. Nepal, winners of the inaugural AFC Solidarity Cup, will take Guam's place in the draw.

Kuwait have been given until 11 January to sort their issues with FIFA. If they fail, a draw will be used to determine their replacement, although I would have expected AFC to name Macau (Solidarity Cup runners-up) to be named as stand-by team. [Update: Macau will be the stand-by team according to a letter from AFC]

FIFA Ranking: January 2017 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 12 January.

8 matches left before the deadline: 2 continental qualifiers and 6 friendlies.

This is how the points and ranks could change for the teams involved:

2019 UEFA Under-21 qualifying seeding

Since I've been asked, here's the seeding for the 26 January draw.

The coefficient will be made up of:

- 2011-13 UEFA European Under-21 Championship (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 20%
– 2013-15 UEFA European Under-21 Championship (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 40%
– 2015-17 UEFA European Under-21 Championship (qualifying competition: group stage and play-offs) - 40%