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Friday, October 13, 2017

2018 World Cup simulations (13 October 2017)

We're almost there. Only 9 spots left - 6 through play-offs and the other 3 in Africa.

The pots for the UEFA play-offs draw (seeded using the October 2017 FIFA ranking):



Pot 1: Switzerland, Italy, Croatia, Denmark
Pot 2: Northern Ireland, Sweden, Republic of Ireland, Greece
The usual 10000 simulations.

94.7% - Tunisia
91.06% - Senegal
88.29% - Peru
77.6% - Italy
69.05% - Switzerland
68.53% - Croatia
62.1% - Australia
60.91% - Denmark
56.88% - Côte d'Ivoire
43.12% - Morocco
40.08% - Sweden
37.9% - Honduras
36.64% - Republic of Ireland
23.89% - Northern Ireland
23.3% - Greece
11.71% - New Zealand
5.3% - Congo DR
5.03% - South Africa
3.91% - Burkina Faso

Regarding the final draw (all teams seeded using the same October ranking).

Pot 1

Russia, Germany, Brazil, Portugal, Argentina, Belgium, Poland and France.

Pot 2

5 teams set: Spain, England, Colombia, Mexico, Uruguay

88.29% [100%] - Peru
77.6% [100%] - Italy
69.05% [100%] - Switzerland
36.16% [52.77%] - Croatia
15.08% [24.76%] - Denmark
12.01% [12.01%] - Iceland
1.73% [1.73%] - Costa Rica
0.08% [0.33%] - Northern Ireland

Pot 3

2 teams set: Egypt and Iran.

98.27% [98.27%] - Costa Rica
94.7% [100%] - Tunisia
91.06% [100%] - Senegal
87.99% [87.99%] - Iceland
45.83% [75.24%] - Denmark
40.08% [100%] - Sweden
38.44% [38.44%] - Serbia
36.64% [100%] - Republic of Ireland
32.37% [47.23%] - Croatia
23.81% [99.67%] - Northern Ireland
5.3% [100%] - Congo DR
4.04% [4.04%] - Nigeria
1.3% [2.09%] - Australia
0.17% [0.17%] - Japan

Pot 4

3 teams set: Panama, Korea Republic and Saudi Arabia.

99.83% [99.83%] - Japan
95.96% [95.96%] - Nigeria
61.56% [61.56%] - Serbia
60.8% [97.91%] - Australia
56.88% [100%] - Côte d'Ivoire
43.12% [100%] - Morocco
37.9% [100%] - Honduras
23.3% [100%] - Greece
11.71% [100%] - New Zealand
5.03% [100%] - South Africa
3.91% [100%] - Burkina Faso

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

18 comments:

  1. Since the pots are not geographically distributed, which constraints will apply to the draw? Will be a limitation to 2 UEFA members per group? What about the other confederations?

    thanks
    Daniel

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Daniel, all known info about the draw is in this FIFA article.

      Delete
    2. It looks like it is possible to have 7 of the groups with 2 UEFA teams each and 1 without any. But the more likely scenario is 6 groups with 2 UEFA teams and 2 with 1 UEFA team each.
      Other than that, they are sticking to the principle of having just 1 team from each confederation in a group.

      Delete
    3. Even if it is not specified in the earlier article I can see 6 groups with 2 eufa teams and 2 groups with one eufa team only being part of the final draw setup.

      Given the Pot 1, Pot 2 configurations Mexico are the only non South America or EUFA team in the first 2 pots so a non euro group would need Argentina/Mexico or Brazil/Mexico out of the first 2 pots. Pot 3 would then need to be CAF/Iran and Pot 4 CAF/Asia/NZ. If NZ fail to qualify it is defintely in no particular order ArgorBra/Mexico/CAF/Asia. This could be seen as unfair to Arg/Bra/Mexico over fellow South and North American teams so I don't think this will be allowed.

      Delete
  2. Great analysis as ever. Although I am not convinced that Australia should be favoured to beat Honduras. I think the order of the legs is highly significant here with Australia having to make the long, long journey across many time zones to play the 1st leg in the highly intimidating environment of San Pedro Sula. They will do well to come away from here with just a 1 goal deficit, I think, all things considered. For the 2nd leg, Australia haven't exactly been convincing at home of late, and may have to win by a 2-goal margin to win, while Honduras will be happy to sit deep and counter.
    I don't see that Honduras are any weaker than Syria either and Australia struggled to get passed them.
    It should be a fascinating play-off but I think the odds are slightly in favour of the Central American team.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Aussie fan here. We can't score. We have a very creative midfield who do generate chances but up front we have no true no 9.

      Also our coach thinks he is Bielsa reborn. He ain't.

      I'd say it's 50/50.

      Peru Nz is also interesting. Peru should beat Nz very comfortably but if things are tight after first leg Peru will get nervous. They want this so much only nerves can stop them.

      Delete
    2. Yeah that is an interesting match-up too. Do you think the Kiwis will be quietly pleased that they didn't end up getting a more established nation like Chile, Colombia or even Argentina? It's perhaps not as cut-and-dried as people think.
      As an Aussie, I bet you are disappointed that the draw in 2015 didn't pitch Asia v Oceania in the play-offs. That would be 2 thunderous "derbies" for you, and far less travel for all players involved.

      Delete
    3. Mate as a football fan I'm annoyed about the play-offs. It's obvious it should just be stated Oceania vs Asia and nth vs Sth America. It should be set.

      But both Asia and nth America want nothing mg to do with the Sth American qualifier so we have these "draws" to keep Asia and nth America happy.

      It makes zero sense.

      As for Nz I've heard comments they feel they'll lose to any Sth American so they would have preferred argies and Messi to visit Nz. I'd give them a punchers chance. Not much, but a chance. :)

      Delete
    4. If the play-off draws fall "in sequence" then fate should throw Asia v Oceania together for the 2022 play-offs.
      Of course, it won't matter for 2026 onwards with that new mini play-off tournament.

      Delete
    5. Another Aussie here, the Honduras playoff will be a good test for both teams regardless of who starts as favourites I agree the first leg will be very important so hopefully my team finds it best form and can get a result our of that game.

      Delete
  3. I think you're underestimating Greece. Greece has never failed at a playoff, and when Mitroglou is playing the team can beat anyone.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. From a quick Wikipedia search it appears that Greece qualified through playoffs against Ukraine for 2010 and Romania for 2014 but none for the Euros. Whether the ELO model gives them a high % or not they should have some confidence with their recent history.

      Delete
  4. i hope Morocco will prove you wrong. Morocco is still first in their group and have at least 50/50 chance to go to Russia.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Northern Ireland v Switzerland
    Croatia v Greece
    Denmark v Republic of Ireland
    Sweden v Italy

    Any smart guy willing to run some simulations? :)

    ReplyDelete
  6. There you go !
    10.000 simulations, based on Club-Elo formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.

    column 1: match
    column 1: home win
    column 2: away win
    column 3: draw

    NIR-SUI - 30,4% - 43,2% - 26,5%
    SUI-NIR - 67,0% - 13,7% - 19,3%

    NIR qualifies - 22,5%
    SUI qualifies - 71,7%
    PSO - 5,8%


    CRO-GRE - 65,3% - 14,5% - 20,3%
    GRE-CRO - 30,5% - 42,3% - 27,2%

    CRO qualifies - 70,1%
    GRE qualifies - 24,2%
    PSO - 5,7%


    DEN-IRL - 50,8% - 24,1% - 25,1%
    IRL-DEN - 44,0% - 29,1% - 26,9%

    DEN qualifies - 50,5%
    IRL qualifies - 42,2%
    PSO - 7,2%


    SWE-ITA - 33,0% - 39,8% - 27,2%
    ITA-SWE - 61,1% - 17,4% - 21,5%

    SWE qualifies - 28,5%
    ITA qualifies - 65,4%
    PSO - 6,1%


    HON-AUS - 39,2% - 34,0% - 26,9%
    AUS-HON - 55,8% - 20,6% - 23,7%

    HON qualifies - 35,5%
    AUS qualifies - 57,4%
    PSO - 7,1%


    NZL-PER - 17,9% - 60,0% - 22,2%
    PER-NZL - 79,7% - 6,7% - 13,6%

    NZL qualifies - 9,4%
    PER qualifies - 87,4%
    PSO - 3,2%

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Great stuff Ed, thanks a million! :)

      I have been intending to code some simulations myself for a long time, but never find the time to sit down and do it...

      Delete
  7. What do you think how the FIFA World Cup Final Draw will work? From pot 2 to pot 4 or they use Uefa Champions league method?

    ReplyDelete