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Friday, October 13, 2017

2018 World Cup simulations (13 October 2017)

We're almost there. Only 9 spots left - 6 through play-offs and the other 3 in Africa.

The pots for the UEFA play-offs draw (seeded using the October 2017 FIFA ranking):



Pot 1: Switzerland, Italy, Croatia, Denmark
Pot 2: Northern Ireland, Sweden, Republic of Ireland, Greece
The usual 10000 simulations.

94.7% - Tunisia
91.06% - Senegal
88.29% - Peru
77.6% - Italy
69.05% - Switzerland
68.53% - Croatia
62.1% - Australia
60.91% - Denmark
56.88% - Côte d'Ivoire
43.12% - Morocco
40.08% - Sweden
37.9% - Honduras
36.64% - Republic of Ireland
23.89% - Northern Ireland
23.3% - Greece
11.71% - New Zealand
5.3% - Congo DR
5.03% - South Africa
3.91% - Burkina Faso

Regarding the final draw (all teams seeded using the same October ranking).

Pot 1

Russia, Germany, Brazil, Portugal, Argentina, Belgium, Poland and France.

Pot 2

5 teams set: Spain, England, Colombia, Mexico, Uruguay

88.29% [100%] - Peru
77.6% [100%] - Italy
69.05% [100%] - Switzerland
36.16% [52.77%] - Croatia
15.08% [24.76%] - Denmark
12.01% [12.01%] - Iceland
1.73% [1.73%] - Costa Rica
0.08% [0.33%] - Northern Ireland

Pot 3

2 teams set: Egypt and Iran.

98.27% [98.27%] - Costa Rica
94.7% [100%] - Tunisia
91.06% [100%] - Senegal
87.99% [87.99%] - Iceland
45.83% [75.24%] - Denmark
40.08% [100%] - Sweden
38.44% [38.44%] - Serbia
36.64% [100%] - Republic of Ireland
32.37% [47.23%] - Croatia
23.81% [99.67%] - Northern Ireland
5.3% [100%] - Congo DR
4.04% [4.04%] - Nigeria
1.3% [2.09%] - Australia
0.17% [0.17%] - Japan

Pot 4

3 teams set: Panama, Korea Republic and Saudi Arabia.

99.83% [99.83%] - Japan
95.96% [95.96%] - Nigeria
61.56% [61.56%] - Serbia
60.8% [97.91%] - Australia
56.88% [100%] - Côte d'Ivoire
43.12% [100%] - Morocco
37.9% [100%] - Honduras
23.3% [100%] - Greece
11.71% [100%] - New Zealand
5.03% [100%] - South Africa
3.91% [100%] - Burkina Faso

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

34 comments:

  1. Since the pots are not geographically distributed, which constraints will apply to the draw? Will be a limitation to 2 UEFA members per group? What about the other confederations?

    thanks
    Daniel

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Daniel, all known info about the draw is in this FIFA article.

      Delete
    2. It looks like it is possible to have 7 of the groups with 2 UEFA teams each and 1 without any. But the more likely scenario is 6 groups with 2 UEFA teams and 2 with 1 UEFA team each.
      Other than that, they are sticking to the principle of having just 1 team from each confederation in a group.

      Delete
    3. Even if it is not specified in the earlier article I can see 6 groups with 2 eufa teams and 2 groups with one eufa team only being part of the final draw setup.

      Given the Pot 1, Pot 2 configurations Mexico are the only non South America or EUFA team in the first 2 pots so a non euro group would need Argentina/Mexico or Brazil/Mexico out of the first 2 pots. Pot 3 would then need to be CAF/Iran and Pot 4 CAF/Asia/NZ. If NZ fail to qualify it is defintely in no particular order ArgorBra/Mexico/CAF/Asia. This could be seen as unfair to Arg/Bra/Mexico over fellow South and North American teams so I don't think this will be allowed.

      Delete
  2. Great analysis as ever. Although I am not convinced that Australia should be favoured to beat Honduras. I think the order of the legs is highly significant here with Australia having to make the long, long journey across many time zones to play the 1st leg in the highly intimidating environment of San Pedro Sula. They will do well to come away from here with just a 1 goal deficit, I think, all things considered. For the 2nd leg, Australia haven't exactly been convincing at home of late, and may have to win by a 2-goal margin to win, while Honduras will be happy to sit deep and counter.
    I don't see that Honduras are any weaker than Syria either and Australia struggled to get passed them.
    It should be a fascinating play-off but I think the odds are slightly in favour of the Central American team.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Aussie fan here. We can't score. We have a very creative midfield who do generate chances but up front we have no true no 9.

      Also our coach thinks he is Bielsa reborn. He ain't.

      I'd say it's 50/50.

      Peru Nz is also interesting. Peru should beat Nz very comfortably but if things are tight after first leg Peru will get nervous. They want this so much only nerves can stop them.

      Delete
    2. Yeah that is an interesting match-up too. Do you think the Kiwis will be quietly pleased that they didn't end up getting a more established nation like Chile, Colombia or even Argentina? It's perhaps not as cut-and-dried as people think.
      As an Aussie, I bet you are disappointed that the draw in 2015 didn't pitch Asia v Oceania in the play-offs. That would be 2 thunderous "derbies" for you, and far less travel for all players involved.

      Delete
    3. Mate as a football fan I'm annoyed about the play-offs. It's obvious it should just be stated Oceania vs Asia and nth vs Sth America. It should be set.

      But both Asia and nth America want nothing mg to do with the Sth American qualifier so we have these "draws" to keep Asia and nth America happy.

      It makes zero sense.

      As for Nz I've heard comments they feel they'll lose to any Sth American so they would have preferred argies and Messi to visit Nz. I'd give them a punchers chance. Not much, but a chance. :)

      Delete
    4. If the play-off draws fall "in sequence" then fate should throw Asia v Oceania together for the 2022 play-offs.
      Of course, it won't matter for 2026 onwards with that new mini play-off tournament.

      Delete
    5. Another Aussie here, the Honduras playoff will be a good test for both teams regardless of who starts as favourites I agree the first leg will be very important so hopefully my team finds it best form and can get a result our of that game.

      Delete
  3. I think you're underestimating Greece. Greece has never failed at a playoff, and when Mitroglou is playing the team can beat anyone.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. From a quick Wikipedia search it appears that Greece qualified through playoffs against Ukraine for 2010 and Romania for 2014 but none for the Euros. Whether the ELO model gives them a high % or not they should have some confidence with their recent history.

      Delete
    2. Ed isn't biased. He simply run the numbers. In the end I agree Greece's chances are probably a bit higher, but Ed isn't underestimating anything.

      Delete
  4. i hope Morocco will prove you wrong. Morocco is still first in their group and have at least 50/50 chance to go to Russia.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Northern Ireland v Switzerland
    Croatia v Greece
    Denmark v Republic of Ireland
    Sweden v Italy

    Any smart guy willing to run some simulations? :)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. my prediction is Switzerland, Croatia, Republic of Ireland and Italy

      Delete
  6. There you go !
    10.000 simulations, based on Club-Elo formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.

    column 1: match
    column 1: home win
    column 2: away win
    column 3: draw

    NIR-SUI - 30,4% - 43,2% - 26,5%
    SUI-NIR - 67,0% - 13,7% - 19,3%

    NIR qualifies - 22,5%
    SUI qualifies - 71,7%
    PSO - 5,8%


    CRO-GRE - 65,3% - 14,5% - 20,3%
    GRE-CRO - 30,5% - 42,3% - 27,2%

    CRO qualifies - 70,1%
    GRE qualifies - 24,2%
    PSO - 5,7%


    DEN-IRL - 50,8% - 24,1% - 25,1%
    IRL-DEN - 44,0% - 29,1% - 26,9%

    DEN qualifies - 50,5%
    IRL qualifies - 42,2%
    PSO - 7,2%


    SWE-ITA - 33,0% - 39,8% - 27,2%
    ITA-SWE - 61,1% - 17,4% - 21,5%

    SWE qualifies - 28,5%
    ITA qualifies - 65,4%
    PSO - 6,1%


    HON-AUS - 39,2% - 34,0% - 26,9%
    AUS-HON - 55,8% - 20,6% - 23,7%

    HON qualifies - 35,5%
    AUS qualifies - 57,4%
    PSO - 7,1%


    NZL-PER - 17,9% - 60,0% - 22,2%
    PER-NZL - 79,7% - 6,7% - 13,6%

    NZL qualifies - 9,4%
    PER qualifies - 87,4%
    PSO - 3,2%

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Great stuff Ed, thanks a million! :)

      I have been intending to code some simulations myself for a long time, but never find the time to sit down and do it...

      Delete
  7. What do you think how the FIFA World Cup Final Draw will work? From pot 2 to pot 4 or they use Uefa Champions league method?

    ReplyDelete
  8. More reforms (or at least plans in that direction) announced by UEFA.

    Translation from Dutch:

    UEFA has plans for own World Cup

    UEFA is planning to organise it's own World Cup. The European football association confirmed this against press agency DPA after an article about this was published in German paper Bild Zeitung.
    According to Bild the plan of UEFA-president Ceferin is to organise a mini World Cup with 8 countries, every odd year. The qualifications could possibly already be scheduled for Autumn 2020. In 6 matchdays in the months September until November qualification matches should be played. The best 8 countries from the qualifications should play one year later a mini World Cup. UEFA confirms that these plans are a further development of the UEFA Nations League, a new European tournament with qualifications starting in Autumn 2018.

    With this plan UEFA seems to seek the confrontation with the FIFA, which organises the World Cup every four years. But according to UEFA the FIFA is informed from the beginning and is the relation between both associations 'very good'.
    According to Bild Ceferin has send his proposal already to all 55 UEFA member associations and they were interested, because a new tournament on global level would generate much more TV-money.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Interesting stuff! Found another article about the same thing, in English: https://theworldgame.sbs.com.au/article/2017/11/04/global-nations-league-plan-mini-world-cup-every-two-years

      Delete
  9. Hi, what are the chances now for the 4 European WC playoff ties now that each have played the 1st leg?
    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  10. Hi Ger, Ireland still fighting for it !

    10.000 simulations after the first leg of the play-offs, based on Club-Elo formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.
    Compared to the predictions before the first leg.

    column 1: match
    column 2: home win
    column 3: away win
    column 4: draw

    SUI-NIR - 67,0% - 13,7% - 19,3% (before 1st leg)
    SUI-NIR - 69,2% - 12,4% - 18,4% (after 1st leg)

    NIR qualifies - 22,5% => 8,2%
    SUI qualifies - 71,7% => 87,6%
    PSO - 5,8% => 4,2%


    GRE-CRO - 30,5% - 42,3% - 27,2% (before 1st leg)
    GRE-CRO - 28,0% - 45,9% - 26,1% (after 1st leg)

    CRO qualifies - 70,1% => 97,0%
    GRE qualifies - 24,2% => 2,3%
    PSO - 5,7% => 0,6%


    IRL-DEN - 44,0% - 29,1% - 26,9% (before 1st leg)
    IRL-DEN - 47,1% - 27,1% - 25,8% (after 1st leg)

    DEN qualifies - 50,5% => 45,3%
    IRL qualifies - 42,2% => 47,1%
    PSO - 7,2% => 7,7%


    ITA-SWE - 61,1% - 17,4% - 21,5% (before 1st leg)
    ITA-SWE - 56,9% - 19,7% - 23,4% (after 1st leg)

    SWE qualifies - 28,5% => 56,4%
    ITA qualifies - 65,4% => 32,0%
    PSO - 6,1% => 11,6%


    AUS-HON - 55,8% - 20,6% - 23,7% (before 1st leg)
    AUS-HON - 55,9% - 20,9% - 23,2% (after 1st leg)

    HON qualifies - 35,5% => 37,3%
    AUS qualifies - 57,4% => 55,9%
    PSO - 7,1% => 6,8%


    PER-NZL - 79,7% - 6,7% - 13,6% (before 1st leg)
    PER-NZL - 78,3% - 7,9% - 13,9% (after 1st leg)

    NZL qualifies - 9,4% => 18,0%
    PER qualifies - 87,4% => 78,3%
    PSO - 3,2% => 3,7%

    ReplyDelete
  11. Thanks Ed, great work��������

    ReplyDelete
  12. Group A Rus-Per-Ice-Mar
    Group B Pol-Swi-Tun-Kor
    Group C Fra-Spa-Sen-Pan
    Group D Ger-Eng-Cos-Aus
    Group E Bra-Mex-Egy-Sau
    Group F Arg-Cro-Ira-Ser
    Group G Bel-Col-Den-Nig
    Group H Por-Uru-Swe-Jap.

    That's what I like :). With possible nice matches in the k-o stages!

    ReplyDelete
  13. Group A Rus-Per-Ice-Mar
    Group B Pol-Swi-Tun-Kor
    Group C Fra-Spa-Sen-Pan
    Group D Ger-Eng-Cos-Aus
    Group E Bra-Mex-Egy-Sau
    Group F Arg-Cro-Ira-Ser
    Group G Bel-Col-Den-Nig
    Group H Por-Uru-Swe-Jap.

    That's what I like :). With possible nice matches in the k-o stages!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There aren't any European teams in your Group E, and I don't think that will be possible in the actual draw.

      Delete
    2. @the reply above I agree that is logical as per my example on 14th October, who knows whether the boffins at FIFA will bother to consider the pros and cons.

      If so presumably Serbia moves to Group E with the Saudis moving to Group G and the Saudis moving to Group F for geographic reasons.

      Delete
  14. Why not? There are no more than 2 European teams in same group as well as only one team from other confederations per group.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. From FIFA's material from today:

      "Each group must have at least one but no more than two European teams drawn into it."

      http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/news/y=2017/m=11/news=close-up-on-final-draw-procedures-2921440.html?intcmp=fifacom_hp_module_news&_branch_match_id=463730035051420089

      Delete
  15. Just wondering - as the FIFA draw has its unique rules regarding teams from the same confederation, wouldn't it be possible to calculate probabilities for teams to be drawn together?

    For example, as Brazil can't have another South American team on its group, it has a 20% chance of getting Spain or England, right?

    Other interesting thing is Serbia - as the only European team in pot 4, they probably have a much higher probability of landing in Brazil or Argentina's group.

    It would be interesting to run a few thousand simulations of the draw and check if some interesting pattern arises.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. See here for the probabilities with drawing order pot 1 to 4 and max. 2 UEFA-teams in a group and max. 1 from other confederations. No constraint used here for at least 1 UEFA team in a group.

      Delete
  16. That was a great graph! Thanks for sharing!

    ReplyDelete