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Thursday, May 26, 2022

World Cup 2022 qualification simulations (May 2022)

In this June window the qualification for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar (to start in November this year) should finally come to a conclusion. The COVID-19 pandemic plus the Russian war in Ukraine disrupted much on a global scale. It also caused havoc in the original qualification schedules of the confederations for this tournament. It caused severe delays and a final tournament draw taking place in April, even before the qualification process was properly completed. 

I'm still unsure as to why FIFA decided to this schedule of events. There must be some totally football unrelated, probably commercial and for FIFA very profitable reasons behind this. At least, a fair draw was not their top priority, because also the decision to seed the three at the time of the draw unknown participants (one UEFA play-off path A winner and two interconfederational play-off winners) in pot 4, regardless of the ranking of the participating teams in each play-off was -to some degree- unfair and even contradictory to their own regulations.

CAF Nations Cup 2023 qualification simulations (May 2022)

This June window the group stage starts in the qualification for the AFCON 2023 in Cote d'Ivoire in June next year. In March preliminary play-offs were played to wittle the 54 entered African teams down to 48. Now the group stage with 12 groups of 4 teams starts with two matchdays in June, two in September and two in March next year. The 12 group winners and runners-up qualify for the 24-team continental final.

Wednesday, May 25, 2022

UEFA Nations League 2022/23 simulations (May 2022)

Let's focus on the UEFA Nations League 2022/2023. 


This competition will be played on six matchdays (4 this June window, 2 in the September window), with a Final Four (2 one-off semi-finals, a third place play-off and a final) in June next year.

There are 4 leagues, A - D. All leagues, except league D, consist of 4 groups with 4 teams per group. League D consists of two groups, one with 4 teams and one with 3 teams. All teams in a group play against each other home and away. 

Russia is suspended for this competition; they were originally drawn in group B-2.

Sunday, May 22, 2022

FIFA ranking June 2022: preview results

Here are the scheduled matches counting for the FIFA June 2022 ranking with FIFA's Home Team Win Expectancy (We) in % and the points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team. In cases where matches can go to PSO, also the points exchanged when the home team wins (PSO-W) of loses (PSO-L) the penalty shoot-out are given.

 

The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my inclusion-method.

FIFA ranking June 2022: preview

Here are the minimum and maximum points for each team in the June 2022 ranking. FIFA will publish the ranking on June 23rd.

 

Minimum and maximum points per team are determined with a small piece of software which calculates per match the minimum and maximum possible points for each participating team, given the minimum and maximum starting values of both teams before the match.


Note that only scheduled (and included) matches with both teams known at calculation time are incorporated in this analysis.

FIFA ranking: June 2022 probable results

Here are the probable results of all 281 currently scheduled matches up to and including June 14th, used to calculate the June 2022 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. Also the already played matches since March 31st, (probably) counting for the June ranking, are presented.

 

The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my inclusion-method. Also the Home Team Win Expectancy (We) according to elo is given for each match in %.

FIFA ranking: June 2022 probable ranking

Here is the probable June 2022 ranking, to be published on Thursday June 23rd. 


After the commotion of the March window and subsequent World Cup draw a very quiet period in NT-football began with room for the conclusion of the domestic and continental cup seasons in club football. However, the next NT-football window starts after next week and will span two weeks instead of the normal one week: from May 30th until June 14th. This because of the World Cup to be played from November this year.

Wednesday, March 30, 2022

FIFA ranking: April 2022 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking tomorrow, Thursday March 31st. Just in time to use it as the seeding ranking for the Finals draw the following day, Friday April 1st at 18:00 CET that shindig will start.

This final preview contains 169 matches, out of 181 matches played since February 7th.


Just now New Zealand has demolished Solomon Islands in the OFC qualification final, so they will participate in the interconfederational play-off against the CONCACAF number four in June.

And tonight (for us Europeans) the CONCACAF octagonal finishes with the last 4 matches: Canada is qualified but they need a win to clinch the final spot in pot 3 (relegating Tunisia to pot 4), Mexico needs a point against El Salvador to qualify. Costa Rica - USA is about the third direct qualification spot. Costa Rica needs a win with 6 goals difference to pip the USA. That probably won't happen, so the Central-Americans will highly likely be the opponent of New Zealand in June. Mexico and USA will be in pot 2 for the draw when they qualify.

The other IPO is between Peru and the winner of Australia - United Arab Emirates.

Saturday, March 12, 2022

FIFA ranking April 2022: preview

Here are the minimum and maximum points for each team in the April 2022 ranking. FIFA will publish the ranking on March 31st.


Minimum and maximum points per team are determined with a small piece of software which calculates per match the minimum and maximum possible points for each participating team, given the minimum and maximum starting values of both teams before the match.


Note that only scheduled (and included) matches with both teams known at calculation time are incorporated in this analysis.

FIFA ranking: April 2022 probable ranking

Here is the probable April 2022 ranking, to be published on Thursday March 31st. This ranking will include the conclusion of World Cup qualification in all confederations. Also a lot of friendlies are scheduled plus the preliminary play-offs in AFCON 2023 qualification. And the  two-legged play-outs (still for the Nations League 2021) Estonia - Cyprus and Moldova - Kazakhstan to decide which two teams will stay in league C and which two will relegate to league D for the next Nations League 2022-2023, with the group stage of that tournament already to be played in June and September this year.

FIFA ranking April 2022: preview results

Here are the scheduled matches counting for the FIFA April 2022 ranking with FIFA's Home Team Win Expectancy (We) in % and the points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team. In cases where matches can go to PSO, also the points exchanged when the home team wins (PSO-W) of loses (PSO-L) the penalty shoot-out are given.


The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my inclusion-method.


Normally the home team's gained points will be the away-team's lost points. Still, both are given because there are in FIFA's calculation approach cases when they will not be the same: PSO-matches and knock-out matches in final competitions.

FIFA ranking: April 2022 probable results

Here are the probable results of all 145 currently scheduled matches up to and including March 30th, used to calculate the April 2022 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings.


Also the already played matches since February 7th, (probably) counting for the April ranking, are presented.


The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my inclusion-method. Also the Home Team Win Expectancy (We) according to elo is given for each match in %.

Saturday, February 5, 2022

World Cup qualification simulations (5 February 2022)

The January window and all but the final weekend in the AFCON 2022 has been played. Compared to the last simulations made in November last year the following changes in the simulated match schedule are made:

  • for UEFA all currently scheduled friendlies in the March window are included;
  • for CAF the pairing of the final round of 5 home-and-away play-offs in March was drawn, using the November 2021 ranking as seeding ranking;
  • for OFC the complete qualification match schedule is known now. All qualifiers will be played in Doha in March to decide the OFC-representative in the IPO's in June. Unfortunately Tonga had to withdraw for their preliminary play-off against the Cook Islands, due to the aftermath of the recent volcanic eruption in their territory. Cook Islands is therefore placed in group A and they will hopefully play their first competitive matches since September 2015;
  • AFC, CONCACAF and CONMEBOL played two or three match days of qualifiers. In Asia Iran and South Korea qualified for Qatar while in the other group Japan, Saudi Arabia and Australia battle it out. In CONCACAF Canada was on a roll and won their 3 matches. They are all but qualified. In South America Ecuador and Uruguay made good progress towards direct qualification. Colombia sort of ruined their chances. Even for the IPO-berth Peru seems the first candidate.

Friday, February 4, 2022

FIFA ranking: February 2022 final preview

FIFA will publish the February ranking next Thursday February 10th. This final preview contains 123 matches, out of 127 matches played since December 20th. 


Only the third place match tomorrow between tournament host Cameroon and Burkina Faso and the final on Sunday of the African Cup of Nations 2022 between Senegal and Egypt are to be played:


CMR

BFA

pts

pos

pts

pos

Cameroon win

1490,93

36

1418,01

56

Cameroon PSO win

1480,93

38

1420,11

56

Burkina Faso PSO win

1473,03

38

1430,11

54

Burkina Faso win

1473,03

38

1440,11

51

SEN

EGY

pts

pos

pts

pos

Senegal win

1597,87

17

1493,67

34

Senegal PSO win

1587,87

18

1497,00

34

Egypt PSO win

1581,20

19

1507,00

33

Egypt win

1581,20

19

1517,00

30


Elo predicts a straight Cameroon win for third place and a Senegal PSO win in the final.

Sunday, January 2, 2022

FIFA ranking February 2022: preview results

Here are the scheduled matches counting for the FIFA February 2022 ranking with FIFA's Home Team Win Expectancy (We) in % and the points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team. In cases where matches can go to PSO, also the points exchanged when the home team wins (PSO-W) of loses (PSO-L) the penalty shoot-out are given.


The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my inclusion-method.

Normally the home team's gained points will be the away-team's lost points. Still, both are given because there are in FIFA's calculation approach cases when they will not be the same: PSO-matches and knock-out matches in final competitions.

FIFA ranking February 2022: preview

Here are the minimum and maximum points for each team in the February 2022 ranking. FIFA will publish the ranking on February 10th.

Minimum and maximum points per team are determined with a small piece of software which calculates per match the minimum and maximum possible points for each participating team, given the minimum and maximum starting values of both teams before the match.


Note that only scheduled (and included) matches with both teams known at calculation time are incorporated in this analysis.

FIFA ranking: February 2022 probable ranking

Here is the probable February 2022 ranking, to be published on Thursday February 10th.

This ranking will include the semi finals and finals of the South East Asian Championship, the complete African Cup of Nations 2022 in Cameroon and the WC-qualifiers in CONCACAF, AFC and CONMEBOL in the (added) January 2022 match window. Furthermore, quite a few friendlies will be played in this month.


This preview is calculated with elo-predicted results for all 114 currently scheduled and according to my method included matches, out of a total of 124 currently scheduled matches. See the probable results for a list of which scheduled matches are included.

FIFA ranking: February 2022 probable results

Here are the probable results of all 124 currently scheduled matches up to and including February 6th, used to calculate the February 2022 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings.

Also the already played matches since December 20th, (probably) counting for the February ranking, are presented.


The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my inclusion-method. Also the Home Team Win Expectancy (We) according to elo is given for each match in %.