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Wednesday, May 25, 2022

UEFA Nations League 2022/23 simulations (May 2022)

Let's focus on the UEFA Nations League 2022/2023. 


This competition will be played on six matchdays (4 this June window, 2 in the September window), with a Final Four (2 one-off semi-finals, a third place play-off and a final) in June next year.

There are 4 leagues, A - D. All leagues, except league D, consist of 4 groups with 4 teams per group. League D consists of two groups, one with 4 teams and one with 3 teams. All teams in a group play against each other home and away. 

Russia is suspended for this competition; they were originally drawn in group B-2.


An overall UNL-ranking per league is compiled after the group stage. Teams will be ordered by:

  • position in the group
  • points
  • goal-difference
  • goals scored
  • away goals scored
  • number of wins
  • number of away wins
  • fair-play
  • position in the UEFA Nations League 2022/23 Access List


Notes: 

- ordering of the group winners in league A will be decided in the Final Four;

- Russia will be ranked as last team in league B (number 32) in the overall UNL-ranking;

- in league D the ranking of the group numbers 1 to 3 will be based on the group matches against numbers 1 to 3 in the group.


This overall UNL-ranking is used to seed the draw on October 9th 2022 for the qualifying stage of EURO 2024, which will run from March to November 2023 and will consist of 10 groups of 5 or 6 teams. The group numbers one and two qualify for EURO 2024. Germany as host will not participate in this qualification. 

After that qualifying phase 12 teams that have not directly qualified for EURO 2024, will have another chance to gain one of the last 3 qualifying berths for EURO 2024 via play-offs, to be played in March 2024. 

The 12 eligible teams and match-ups are determined in a somewhat complex procedure, but that procedure is also based on the UNL-rankings per league. So there is some importance in getting good results in the UNL 2022 group stage.

There is also promotion/relegation between leagues to compose the leagues for the next UNL edition: each group-winner in leagues B-D is promoted, each group-last in leagues A-B is relegated. Two play-outs between the 4 group numbers 4 in league C are played in March 2024 to determine which two teams relegate to league D.


Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy. 


The group results with teams ordered by average group position:


group A-1

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

France

71,27

20,57

6,70

1,46

Denmark

18,00

43,49

27,23

11,28

Croatia

8,85

27,22

41,20

22,73

Austria

1,88

8,72

24,87

64,53

group A-2

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Spain

46,09

28,53

16,93

8,45

Portugal

30,25

31,58

24,64

13,53

Switzerland

17,14

25,61

30,81

26,44

Czech Republic

6,52

14,28

27,62

51,58

group A-3

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

England

42,84

30,68

20,41

6,07

Italy

30,65

32,35

28,07

8,93

Germany

24,86

31,07

33,10

10,97

Hungary

1,65

5,90

18,42

74,03

group A-4

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Belgium

62,33

24,00

10,01

3,66

Netherlands

22,93

37,35

25,40

14,32

Wales

8,82

22,23

32,99

35,96

Poland

5,92

16,42

31,60

46,06

group B-1

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Ukraine

46,89

27,80

18,62

6,69

Scotland

26,97

34,18

27,94

10,91

Republic of Ireland

23,18

28,91

31,50

16,41

Armenia

2,96

9,11

21,94

65,99

group B-2

1st

2nd

3rd

Israel

43,45

33,18

23,37

Albania

32,68

34,44

32,88

Iceland

23,87

32,38

43,75

group B-3

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Finland

43,07

28,88

19,01

9,04

Romania

30,99

29,31

24,05

15,65

Bosnia-Herzegovina

17,69

24,80

29,58

27,93

Montenegro

8,25

17,01

27,36

47,38

group B-4

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Serbia

42,73

29,39

19,41

8,47

Sweden

32,97

30,43

23,64

12,96

Norway

18,65

27,15

31,93

22,27

Slovenia

5,65

13,03

25,02

56,30

group C-1

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Turkey

88,43

9,53

1,76

0,28

Luxembourg

7,22

45,22

30,14

17,42

Lithuania

3,26

28,92

37,29

30,53

Faroe Islands

1,09

16,33

30,81

51,77

group C-2

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Greece

52,85

29,22

14,02

3,91

Northern Ireland

31,48

36,89

23,06

8,57

Kosovo

13,43

25,57

40,28

20,72

Cyprus

2,24

8,32

22,64

66,80

group C-3

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Slovakia

82,72

13,14

3,33

0,81

Belarus

10,10

41,79

29,16

18,95

Kazakhstan

4,27

25,85

34,84

35,04

Azerbaijan

2,91

19,22

32,67

45,20

group C-4

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

North Macedonia

54,22

30,78

14,69

0,31

Georgia

28,28

37,56

33,11

1,05

Bulgaria

17,48

31,44

48,91

2,17

Gibraltar

0,02

0,22

3,29

96,47

group D-1

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Latvia

62,80

24,36

9,38

3,46

Moldova

23,01

37,08

25,30

14,61

Liechtenstein

7,72

19,75

32,65

39,88

Andorra

6,47

18,81

32,67

42,05

group D-2

1st

2nd

3rd

Estonia

67,78

31,77

0,45

Malta

32,10

65,56

2,34

San Marino

0,12

2,67

97,21


The probabilities to qualify for the Final Four from league A:

France

71,27

Belgium

62,33

Spain

46,09

England

42,84

Italy

30,65

Portugal

30,25

Germany

24,86

Netherlands

22,93

Denmark

18,00

Switzerland

17,14

Croatia

8,85

Wales

8,82

Czech Republic

6,52

Poland

5,92

Austria

1,88

Hungary

1,65



To qualify for the final. In square brackets the probability to qualify for the final, given qualification for the Final Four as a League A group winner:

France

58,86

[82,59]

England

34,21

[79,86]

Italy

23,40

[76,35]

Germany

18,37

[73,89]

Belgium

18,27

[29,31]

Spain

12,43

[26,97]

Denmark

11,95

[66,39]

Portugal

6,77

[22,38]

Croatia

4,53

[51,19]

Netherlands

4,07

[17,75]

Switzerland

3,34

[19,49]

Wales

1,28

[14,51]

Czech Republic

0,96

[14,72]

Austria

0,57

[30,32]

Hungary

0,52

[31,52]

Poland

0,47

[7,94]



To win the Nations League. In square brackets the probability to win, given qualification for the final:

England

24,78

[72,43]

France

22,42

[38,09]

Italy

15,74

[67,26]

Germany

11,15

[60,70]

Spain

9,16

[73,69]

Belgium

5,82

[31,86]

Portugal

4,56

[67,36]

Denmark

2,22

[18,58]

Switzerland

1,98

[59,28]

Netherlands

0,75

[18,43]

Croatia

0,62

[13,69]

Czech Republic

0,41

[42,71]

Hungary

0,16

[30,77]

Wales

0,16

[12,50]

Poland

0,05

[10,64]

Austria

0,02

[3,51]




Each simulation results in an overall UNL-ranking. Here is the resulting overall UNL-ranking with teams ordered by ascending average position. This ranking is used to seed the draw for the EURO 2024 qualification groups. The probabilities for a team to end in each pot are also given:

team

pot 1

pot 2

pot 3

pot 4

pot 5

pot 6

France

96,84

3,16

0

0

0

0

Belgium

93,15

6,85

0

0

0

0

Spain

85,86

14,14

0

0

0

0

England

87,42

12,58

0

0

0

0

Italy

80,37

19,63

0

0

0

0

Portugal

75,90

24,10

0

0

0

0

Denmark

75,30

24,70

0

0

0

0

Netherlands

73,11

26,89

0

0

0

0

Switzerland

59,01

40,99

0

0

0

0

Croatia

53,31

46,69

0

0

0

0

--------------------------

Wales

45,25

54,75

0

0

0

0

Poland

35,04

64,96

0

0

0

0

Czech Republic

32,68

67,32

0

0

0

0

Austria

17,32

82,68

0

0

0

0

Hungary

14,12

85,88

0

0

0

0

Ukraine

0

46,89

51,76

1,35

0

0

Serbia

0

42,73

56,04

1,23

0

0

Finland

0

43,07

55,52

1,41

0

0

Sweden

0

32,97

64,30

2,73

0

0

Scotland

0

26,97

70,10

2,93

0

0

--------------------------

Romania

0

30,99

65,86

3,15

0

0

Israel

0

43,45

56,55

0

0

0

Republic of Ireland

0

23,18

72,11

4,71

0

0

Albania

0

32,68

67,32

0

0

0

Norway

0

18,65

75,90

5,45

0

0

Iceland

0

23,87

76,13

0

0

0

Bosnia-Herzegovina

0

17,69

75,23

7,08

0

0

Montenegro

0

8,25

75,63

16,12

0

0

Slovenia

0

5,65

72,32

22,03

0

0

Armenia

0

2,96

65,23

31,81

0

0

--------------------------

Russia

0

0

0

100,00

0

0

Turkey

0

0

0

97,96

2,04

0

Slovakia

0

0

0

95,86

4,14

0

North Macedonia

0

0

0

85,00

15,00

0

Greece

0

0

0

82,07

17,93

0

Georgia

0

0

0

65,84

34,16

0

Northern Ireland

0

0

0

68,37

31,63

0

Bulgaria

0

0

0

48,92

51,08

0

Belarus

0

0

0

51,89

48,11

0

Luxembourg

0

0

0

52,44

47,56

0

--------------------------

Kosovo

0

0

0

39,00

61,00

0

Lithuania

0

0

0

32,18

67,82

0

Kazakhstan

0

0

0

30,12

69,88

0

Azerbaijan

0

0

0

22,13

77,87

0

Faroe Islands

0

0

0

17,42

82,58

0

Cyprus

0

0

0

10,56

89,44

0

Gibraltar

0

0

0

0,24

99,76

0

Latvia

0

0

0

0

62,80

37,20

Estonia

0

0

0

0

67,78

32,22

Malta

0

0

0

0

32,10

67,90

--------------------------

Moldova

0

0

0

0

23,01

76,99

Liechtenstein

0

0

0

0

7,72

92,28

Andorra

0

0

0

0

6,47

93,53

San Marino

0

0

0

0

0,12

99,88


About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

8 comments:

  1. I think you left Germany out of the qualifying pots sheet at the bottom.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Wait, sorry. They automatically qualify as hosts. Realized right after I typed that. Sorry!

      Delete
  2. Great work, but I don't understand the bracket possibilities. Why fx does Denmark have a 66 percent chance of reaching the finals as group winners and Portugal and Belgium much less?

    ReplyDelete
  3. To get in the Final Four Denmark would need good results in the group stage to win the group. This means their elo ratings will have grown considerably after the group stage is completed. For teams with already higher elo ratings at the start of the UNL group stage: their elo ratings will probably have stayed the same or maybe even have dropped a bit when they are group winner. So the strengths of participants when entering the Final Four will be much more equal than at the start of the group stage.

    The pairing of the 4 group winners in the semi finals will be drawn randomly (contrary to the CONCACAF NL where the paring is fixed: the best group winner plays the 4th best group winner and 2nd and 3rd best group winner play each other).

    The probabilities to qualify for the final given a team is group winner is calculated simply as the probability to win the semi final divided by the probability to be a group winner. It turns out that Denmark has only an 18% chance to win the group (because France is in it) and an 11.95% chance to win their semi final. I think that second chance is probably relatively high because of the more balanced strengths of semi final participants after the group stage.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I’m not sure I understand (unless the answer is that Denmarks chances will be so much better than eg. Belgium because Denmark can’t play France in the final), but thank you for taking the time to answer.

      Delete
  4. For the qualification EURO 2024 are seedes:
    Pot 4: Russia, Greece, Turkey, Kazakhstan and Georgia.
    Pot 6: Liechtenstein, Andorra and San Marino.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Why are Scotland listed in Pot 2 when the figures show Romania, Israel and Albania with a higher probability of being in pot 2?

    Also do you know if UEFA will only use results between teams 1,2 and 3 in League B due to Russia's suspension leaving 3 teams in League B2? This could account for Israel and Albania's high probability.

    ReplyDelete
  6. The teams are ordered by their average position in the UNL-ranking. After each of the 10.000 simulations an UNL ranking is compiled and per team is counted how many times they land on spot 1 in that ranking, how many times on spot 2 etc. until how many times on spot 55 in the ranking. I then calculate the average UNL ranking position for each team over the 10.000 simulations.
    Scotland has 22,85 average, Romania has 22,98 and Israel has 23,06. Close together, but that's the average position that determines their position in the presented table.
    The probabilities for each pot is as such not directly related to the position in the overall UNL ranking: for instance all positions 22 to 31 land in the same pot 3.

    UEFA hasn't published anything about how they will rank the teams from league B in the overall UNL ranking after the suspension of Russia from group B-2. Like in League D (which wás formally described in the regulations) I expect for the correct sorting of the group numbers 1 to 3 in the 4 groups of League B that the match results against the group number 4 are discarded from their group results.

    ReplyDelete