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Wednesday, August 7, 2019

CAF qualification World Cup 2022 simulations (August 2019)

Next month also starts the African qualification for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar with a first round, consisting of 14 home-and-away play-offs between the 28 lowest ranked African teams. The draw was July 29th.
The fourteen winners join the other 26 African teams to form 10 groups of 4 teams in the second round, a double round robin group stage. First matchdays of the second round will be in the March-window next year. The exact date for the draw of the group stage is not yet known. That will decide which FIFA-ranking will be used to seed the teams. FIFA will probably not publish a ranking in January or February next year, so for now I assume the December 2019 ranking will be used for seeding the draw for the group stage.

Tuesday, August 6, 2019

AFC qualification World Cup 2022 simulations (August 2019)

Next month starts the second round in Asian qualification for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar. After a first round of 6 play-offs between the 12 lowest ranked Asian teams in June, the six winners joined the other 34 Asian teams to form 8 groups of 5 teams in this second round, a double round robin group stage. The groups were drawn on July 17th.


Sunday, July 21, 2019

CONCACAF Nations League 2020 simulations (July 2019)

Let's focus on the CONCACAF Nations League 2020. 

This competition will be played for the first time on six matchdays this Autumn, with a Final Four (2 one-off semi-finals and a final) in March next year. The composition of the leagues was determined in a qualification phase. The groups within the leagues were drawn last March.


There are 3 leagues, A - C. Each league consists of 4 groups. League A has three teams per group, league B has four teams per group. League C has 1 group of four and 3 groups of three teams. All teams in a group play against each other home and away.

FIFA ranking: July 2019 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking this Thursday July 25th. 

I've assumed that of all NT-matches with two FIFA-members in it and played between June 12th and today the following friendlies will be excluded:
2019-06-14 Madagascar - Mauritania 1:3 (Morocco; 4x25 mins)

Included are all other friendlies and of course the high-valued matches in the continental cups (Copa America, Gold Cup and CAF Nations Cup). 
Then followed the not so aptly named Intercontinental Cup in India (which turned out to be between four Asian teams), the Pacific Games in Samoa and the still running Indian Ocean Island Games in Mauritius. These are all treated as friendly tournaments for the ranking calculation. So teams will lose points in knock-out matches in these tournaments.

Saturday, July 13, 2019

Points per confederation

I was asked to analyse the number of points that per confederation are gained or lost through the new FIFA ranking calculation. An interesting question Amir, thank you.

The new ranking calculation is applied since June 4th 2018, some thirteen months now. In that time one World Cup and continental championships for CONMEBOL, CONCACAF, AFC and CAF were played. Tournaments with a relatively high weight were the UEFA Nations League, the CONCACAF Nations League qualifying and part of EURO and CAF qualifying. Tournaments with a relatively lower weight were several regional championships or qualifications for those. And of course a lot of friendlies were played, outside and inside official FIFA match windows.

Monday, July 8, 2019

FIFA ranking: July 2019 probable results (II)

Here are the probable results of all currently scheduled matches up to and including July 21st, used to calculate the July 2019 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. 

The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my inclusion-method. Also the Expected Home Win Probability (We) according to elo is given for each match in %.

FIFA ranking: July 2019 probable ranking (II)

Yesterday Brazil and Mexico became champions of their confederation. The African Cup of Nations has just advanced to the quarter finals. The Pacific Games started today.

Here is a second preview of the probable July 2019 ranking, to be published on July 25th.

This preview is calculated with elo-predicted results for all 31 currently scheduled and according to my method included matches, out of a total of 39 currently scheduled matches. See the probable results for a list of which scheduled matches are included.

Saturday, June 15, 2019

FIFA ranking: July 2019 preview results

Here are the scheduled matches counting for the FIFA July 2019 ranking with FIFA's Expected Home Win Probability (We) in % and the points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team. In cases where matches can go to PSO, also the points exchanged when the home team wins (PSO-W) or loses (PSO-L) the penalty shoot-out are given.

The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my inclusion-method.

FIFA ranking: July 2019 preview

Here are the minimum and maximum points for each team in the July 2019 ranking. FIFA will publish the ranking on July 25th.

Minimum and maximum points per team are determined with a small piece of software which calculates per match the minimum and maximum possible points for each participating team, given the minimum and maximum starting values of both teams before the match. 

FIFA ranking: July 2019 probable results

Here are the probable results of all currently scheduled matches up to and including July 21st, used to calculate the July 2019 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. 

Also the already played matches since June 12th, (probably) counting for the July ranking, are presented.

FIFA ranking: July 2019 probable ranking

With the June ranking published yesterday the action continues with three continental finals for CONMEBOL, CONCACAF and CAF to be played simultaneously. Furthermore, there are several preparatory friendlies for CAF-teams scheduled. And... almost all the OFC-nations have their first tournament since December 2017 with the Pacific Games in Samoa. New Zealand participates there with a U-23 team.

Thursday, June 13, 2019

2020 UEFA EURO qualification: 10000 simulations (12 June 2019)

The matchdays three and four in qualifying for EURO 2020 were played last week. See here for more information on the qualification process and the simulation results before the first qualifier was played. See here for the simulation results after MD2.

Wednesday, June 12, 2019

FIFA ranking: June 2019 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking this Friday June 14th. 

I've assumed that of all NT-matches with two FIFA-members in it and played between April 1st and yesterday the following friendlies will be excluded:
2019-05-29 Cayman Islands - Cuba 0:0 (Cayman Islands)
2019-05-31 Cayman Islands - Cuba 0:1 (Cayman Islands)
2019-06-07 Guinea - Gambia 0:1 (Morocco)
2019-06-07 Tajikistan - Afghanistan 1:1 (Tajikistan)
2019-06-09 Ghana - Namibia 0:1 (United Arab Emirates)
2019-06-09 Uganda - Turkmenistan 0:0 (United Arab Emirates)
2019-06-10 Trinidad and Tobago - Canada 0:2 (USA)

Monday, May 27, 2019

FIFA ranking: June 2019 preview results

Here are the scheduled matches counting for the FIFA June 2019 ranking with FIFA's Expected Home Win Probability (We) in % and the points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team. In cases where matches can go to PSO, also the points exchanged when the home team wins (PSO-W) or loses (PSO-L) the penalty shoot-out are given.

The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my inclusion-method.

FIFA ranking: June 2019 preview

Here are the minimum and maximum points for each team in the June 2019 ranking. FIFA will publish the ranking on June 14th.

Minimum and maximum points per team are determined with a small piece of software which calculates per match the minimum and maximum possible points for each participating team, given the minimum and maximum starting values of both teams before the match.

FIFA ranking: June 2019 probable results

Here are the probable results of all currently scheduled matches up to and including June 11th, used to calculate the June 2019 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. 
Also the already played matches since March 26th, (probably) counting for the June ranking, are presented.

FIFA ranking: June 2019 probable ranking

After the rather quiet months April and May the action starts in the fully packed months June and July: a whopping 3 continental finals for CONMEBOL, CONCACAF and CAF will be played simultaneously from mid June onwards. Before that EURO 2020 qualifiers and the UEFA Nations League 2018/2019 finals are played. Furthermore, there are lots of (preparatory) friendlies scheduled and o yeah, the qualification for the next World Cup 2022 in Qatar starts with first round play-offs for the lowest ranked Asian teams. The COSAFA Cup 2019 in the meantime is already underway.

Sunday, April 14, 2019

CAF Nations Cup 2019: 10000 simulations (14 April 2019)

Last week was the draw for the African Cup of Nations 2019, played from June 21st to July 19th in Egypt. The format is expanded to 24 teams, playing in 6 groups of 4 teams. Group numbers 1 and 2 qualify for the first knock-out round, together with the four best group numbers 3. The placing of the qualified teams in the round of 16 follows the same system as the EURO 2016 and AFC Nations Cup 2019 tournaments.

CAF decided to use the April FIFA ranking to seed the continental showpiece, contrary to the previous CAF-tournaments.

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the complete tournament -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.

Copa America 2019: 10000 simulations (14 April 2019)

On January 24th was the draw for the Copa America 2019, played from June 14th to July 7th in Brazil. This is the last time in the somewhat awkward format of 3 groups of 4 teams. Group numbers 1 and 2 and the two best numbers 3 qualify for the quarter finals.
Next year in 2020 already the Copa America will be expanded to 16 teams and from then be held in the same 4-year cycle as the EURO.

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the complete tournament -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.

CONCACAF Gold Cup 2019: 10000 simulations (14 April 2019)

Last week was the draw for the CONCACAF Gold Cup 2019, played from June 15th to July 7th in the United States with first round group B and C matches played in San José Costa Rica and Kingston Jamaica. The format is expanded to 16 teams, playing in the classic format of 4 groups of 4 teams. Group numbers 1 and 2 qualify for the quarter finals.

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the complete tournament -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.

Thursday, March 28, 2019

2020 UEFA EURO qualification: 10000 simulations (28 March 2019)

The first two matchdays in qualifying for EURO 2020 were played last week. See here for more information on the qualification process and the simulation results before the first qualifier was played.

FIFA ranking: April 2019 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking next Thursday April 4th. 

I've assumed that of all NT-matches with two FIFA-members in it and played between February 4th and March 31st the following friendlies will be excluded:

2019-02-25 Cuba - Bermuda 2:2 (closed door match)
2019-03-10 Mozambique  - Swatini 1:1
2019-03-16 Suriname - Guyana 3:1
2019-03-25 Kuwait - Nepal 1:0
2019-03-26 Ghana - Mauritania 3:1
2019-03-26 Nicaragua - Guatemala 0:1

See here for 'my inclusion rules'. We will see next Thursday how many corrections on these assumptions I need :)

Sunday, March 10, 2019

FIFA ranking: April 2019 preview results

Here are the scheduled matches counting for the FIFA April 2019 ranking with FIFA's Expected Home Win Probability (We) in % and the points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team. In cases where matches can go to PSO, also the points exchanged when the home team wins (PSO-W) or loses (PSO-L) the penalty shoot-out are given.

The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my described inclusion-method.

FIFA ranking: April 2019 preview

Here are the minimum and maximum points for each team in the April 2019 ranking. FIFA will publish the ranking on April 4th.

Also check the probable April ranking to find out about the inclusion-method I used for this preview.

FIFA ranking: April 2019 probable results

Here are the probable results of all currently scheduled matches until April 4th, used to calculate the April 2019 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. 
The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my described inclusion-method. Also the Expected Home Win Probability (We) according to elo is given for each match in %.

FIFA ranking: April 2019 probable ranking

Here is the probable April 2019 ranking, to be published on April 4th. 

Which matches to include, that's the question. FIFA no longer maintains their fixture-list on their site. They direct you to the live scores section on their app for that. After a thorough examination of their whole app I found a selection of NT-tournaments match results. 

Monday, February 18, 2019

2019 CAF Nations Cup: 10000 simulations

Next month the last match day of qualifying for the CAF Nations Cup 2019 (Egypt this Summer) will be played. Already 14 teams are qualified, another 10 berths to play for. Here are the results of 10000 simulations of this match day. The results will also determine the seeding for the draw of the final tournament, based on the CAF NT ranking. 

Friday, February 1, 2019

FIFA ranking: February 2019 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking next Thursday February 7th. 

Some things are changed. 

First of all FIFA has, I surely hope temporarily, removed the fixture list from their site. The only official source regarding which matches to include in the FIFA ranking calculation is gone. That makes a reliable prediction of the next ranking a bit of a scientific guess, doesn't it ?

Okay, it's safe to assume that all matches in the Asian Nations Cup will count, but what about the 7 friendlies sofar in 2019 which could or could not count for the February ranking?

Thursday, January 17, 2019

FIFA ranking: January 2019 probable ranking update

Here is an update of the probable January 2019 ranking, to be published on February 7th. This preview is calculated with updated elo-predicted results for the complete knock-out stage of the Asian Nations Cup 2019.

FIFA ranking: January 2019 preview results update

Now the group stage is finished, here is the promised update of the previewed matches in the complete knock-out stage of the Asian Nations Cup.