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Sunday, April 14, 2019

CAF Nations Cup 2019: 10000 simulations (14 April 2019)

Last week was the draw for the African Cup of Nations 2019, played from June 21st to July 19th in Egypt. The format is expanded to 24 teams, playing in 6 groups of 4 teams. Group numbers 1 and 2 qualify for the first knock-out round, together with the four best group numbers 3. The placing of the qualified teams in the round of 16 follows the same system as the EURO 2016 and AFC Nations Cup 2019 tournaments.

CAF decided to use the April FIFA ranking to seed the continental showpiece, contrary to the previous CAF-tournaments.

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the complete tournament -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.

Copa America 2019: 10000 simulations (14 April 2019)

On January 24th was the draw for the Copa America 2019, played from June 14th to July 7th in Brazil. This is the last time in the somewhat awkward format of 3 groups of 4 teams. Group numbers 1 and 2 and the two best numbers 3 qualify for the quarter finals.
Next year in 2020 already the Copa America will be expanded to 16 teams and from then be held in the same 4-year cycle as the EURO.

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the complete tournament -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.

CONCACAF Gold Cup 2019: 10000 simulations (14 April 2019)

Last week was the draw for the CONCACAF Gold Cup 2019, played from June 15th to July 7th in the United States with first round group B and C matches played in San José Costa Rica and Kingston Jamaica. The format is expanded to 16 teams, playing in the classic format of 4 groups of 4 teams. Group numbers 1 and 2 qualify for the quarter finals.

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the complete tournament -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.

Thursday, March 28, 2019

2020 UEFA EURO qualification: 10000 simulations (28 March 2019)

The first two matchdays in qualifying for EURO 2020 were played last week. See here for more information on the qualification process and the simulation results before the first qualifier was played.

FIFA ranking: April 2019 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking next Thursday April 4th. 

I've assumed that of all NT-matches with two FIFA-members in it and played between February 4th and March 31st the following friendlies will be excluded:

2019-02-25 Cuba - Bermuda 2:2 (closed door match)
2019-03-10 Mozambique  - Swatini 1:1
2019-03-16 Suriname - Guyana 3:1
2019-03-25 Kuwait - Nepal 1:0
2019-03-26 Ghana - Mauritania 3:1
2019-03-26 Nicaragua - Guatemala 0:1

See here for 'my inclusion rules'. We will see next Thursday how many corrections on these assumptions I need :)

Sunday, March 10, 2019

FIFA ranking: April 2019 preview results

Here are the scheduled matches counting for the FIFA April 2019 ranking with FIFA's Expected Home Win Probability (We) in % and the points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team. In cases where matches can go to PSO, also the points exchanged when the home team wins (PSO-W) or loses (PSO-L) the penalty shoot-out are given.

The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my described inclusion-method.

FIFA ranking: April 2019 preview

Here are the minimum and maximum points for each team in the April 2019 ranking. FIFA will publish the ranking on April 4th.

Also check the probable April ranking to find out about the inclusion-method I used for this preview.

FIFA ranking: April 2019 probable results

Here are the probable results of all currently scheduled matches until April 4th, used to calculate the April 2019 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. 
The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my described inclusion-method. Also the Expected Home Win Probability (We) according to elo is given for each match in %.

FIFA ranking: April 2019 probable ranking

Here is the probable April 2019 ranking, to be published on April 4th. 

Which matches to include, that's the question. FIFA no longer maintains their fixture-list on their site. They direct you to the live scores section on their app for that. After a thorough examination of their whole app I found a selection of NT-tournaments match results. 

Monday, February 18, 2019

2019 CAF Nations Cup: 10000 simulations

Next month the last match day of qualifying for the CAF Nations Cup 2019 (Egypt this Summer) will be played. Already 14 teams are qualified, another 10 berths to play for. Here are the results of 10000 simulations of this match day. The results will also determine the seeding for the draw of the final tournament, based on the CAF NT ranking. 

Friday, February 1, 2019

FIFA ranking: February 2019 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking next Thursday February 7th. 

Some things are changed. 

First of all FIFA has, I surely hope temporarily, removed the fixture list from their site. The only official source regarding which matches to include in the FIFA ranking calculation is gone. That makes a reliable prediction of the next ranking a bit of a scientific guess, doesn't it ?

Okay, it's safe to assume that all matches in the Asian Nations Cup will count, but what about the 7 friendlies sofar in 2019 which could or could not count for the February ranking?

Thursday, January 17, 2019

FIFA ranking: January 2019 probable ranking update

Here is an update of the probable January 2019 ranking, to be published on February 7th. This preview is calculated with updated elo-predicted results for the complete knock-out stage of the Asian Nations Cup 2019.

FIFA ranking: January 2019 preview results update

Now the group stage is finished, here is the promised update of the previewed matches in the complete knock-out stage of the Asian Nations Cup.