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Thursday, September 12, 2019

AFC qualification World Cup 2022 simulations (September 2019)

The first two match days of the second round in Asian qualification for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar were played last week. 
See here for more information about the format of the Asian qualifiers, which is somewhat complicated as it partly doubles as qualification for the Asian Cup 2023, and simulation results before this round started.



Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.

The group results with teams ordered by average group position:

group A        1st       2nd       3rd        4th        5th
China PR 57,08 36,30 6,16 0,46 0,00
Syria 40,82 49,88 8,05 1,16 0,09
Philippines 1,77 10,29 58,93 26,73 2,28
Maldives 0,33 3,51 25,87 62,02 8,27
Guam 0,00 0,02 0,99 9,63 89,36
group B        1st       2nd       3rd        4th        5th
Australia 73,58 22,62 3,73 0,06 0,01
Jordan 22,64 51,54 24,60 1,18 0,04
Kuwait 3,77 25,32 64,26 5,91 0,74
Nepal 0,01 0,45 5,39 65,62 28,53
Chinese Taipei 0,00 0,07 2,02 27,23 70,68
group C        1st       2nd       3rd        4th        5th
Iran 73,11 18,94 7,79 0,15 0,01
Iraq 17,45 47,13 32,60 2,63 0,19
Bahrain 9,38 32,49 52,32 5,54 0,27
Hong Kong 0,06 1,42 6,72 74,79 17,01
Cambodia 0,00 0,02 0,57 16,89 82,52
group D        1st       2nd       3rd        4th       5th
Uzbekistan 45,13 28,87 16,46 6,80 2,74
Saudi Arabia 27,81 26,78 27,31 12,38 5,72
Palestine 23,18 32,07 26,29 12,37 6,09
Singapore 2,25 6,49 16,35 37,03 37,88
Yemen 1,63 5,79 13,59 31,42 47,57
group E        1st       2nd       3rd        4th        5th
Qatar 67,20 28,94 3,54 0,31 0,01
Oman 31,11 56,30 10,38 2,11 0,10
India 0,71 7,80 50,32 36,96 4,21
Afghanistan 0,97 6,87 34,49 51,89 5,78
Bangladesh 0,01 0,09 1,27 8,73 89,90
group F        1st       2nd       3rd        4th        5th
Japan 89,47 8,70 1,77 0,06 0,00
Tajikistan 7,78 59,91 29,05 3,00 0,26
Kyrgyzstan 2,72 29,09 55,91 9,40 2,88
Myanmar 0,02 1,92 8,60 48,41 41,05
Mongolia 0,01 0,38 4,67 39,13 55,81
group G        1st       2nd       3rd        4th        5th
United Arab Emirates 60,09 23,21 12,88 3,17 0,65
Thailand 20,38 35,69 28,89 12,03 3,01
Vietnam 16,92 30,00 31,87 15,23 5,98
Malaysia 2,20 9,05 19,43 46,15 23,17
Indonesia 0,41 2,05 6,93 23,42 67,19
group H        1st       2nd       3rd        4th        5th
Korea Republic 82,67 13,47 3,41 0,45 0,00
Korea DPR 12,63 51,43 27,10 8,83 0,01
Lebanon 3,96 23,89 44,18 27,39 0,58
Turkmenistan 0,74 11,21 25,17 61,71 1,17
Sri Lanka 0,00 0,00 0,14 1,62 98,24


The probabilities to qualify for a next round and the difference (in procent-point) compared to the simulations before the start:

Third round WCq - 1 to 12 (or 13 if Qatar is in this group)

Japan 96,88 -1,81
Korea Republic 94,24 -2,28
Australia 94,09 5,81
Iran 89,04 -5,10
China PR 88,64 2,68
Syria 81,66 -3,17
Oman 73,52 5,85
United Arab Emirates 71,19 9,28
Jordan 65,08 12,62
Uzbekistan 54,25 -21,54
Iraq 49,03 -11,51
Korea DPR 47,86 27,93
Tajikistan 43,91 23,99
Saudi Arabia 34,91 -26,29
Thailand 33,70 10,99
Palestine 32,31 12,83
Bahrain 30,33 11,30
Vietnam 28,31 -3,24
Kuwait 22,27 -16,59
Lebanon 18,24 -18,61
Kyrgyzstan 17,00 -11,34
Philippines 7,79 0,50
Turkmenistan 5,88 1,71
India 4,13 -1,01
Malaysia 4,03 1,16
Afghanistan 3,77 2,14
Singapore 2,87 2,41
Yemen 2,16 0,91
Maldives 1,78 1,00
Indonesia 0,50 -8,05
Hong Kong 0,25 -0,59
Myanmar 0,23 -2,03
Nepal 0,07 0,06
Mongolia 0,07 0,07
Bangladesh 0,01 0,01
Guam 0 -0,02
Chinese Taipei 0 -0,07
Cambodia 0 0
Qatar 0 0
Sri Lanka 0 0


AFC Nations Cup 2023 - 1 to 12

Japan 96,10 -2,15
Korea Republic 92,95 -2,64
Australia 92,23 6,29
Qatar 87,56 -8,42
Iran 87,28 -4,92
China PR 85,78 3,92
Syria 76,87 -3,86
United Arab Emirates 67,93 9,15
Oman 66,94 7,21
Jordan 60,32 13,24
Uzbekistan 50,90 -20,61
Iraq 42,59 -11,13
Korea DPR 41,64 26,39
Tajikistan 36,93 22,01
Saudi Arabia 31,76 -23,68
Thailand 29,37 9,27
Palestine 28,98 12,30
Bahrain 25,92 10,28
Vietnam 24,60 -3,49
Kuwait 18,96 -14,90
Lebanon 14,56 -15,58
Kyrgyzstan 13,39 -8,39
Philippines 6,50 0,72
Turkmenistan 4,25 1,75
Malaysia 3,21 0,74
India 3,20 -0,44
Afghanistan 2,85 1,73
Singapore 2,54 2,17
Yemen 1,81 0,94
Maldives 1,29 0,74
Indonesia 0,46 -7,00
Hong Kong 0,15 -0,44
Myanmar 0,11 -1,21
Mongolia 0,05 0,05
Nepal 0,01 0
Bangladesh 0,01 0,01
Guam 0 -0,01
Chinese Taipei 0 -0,04
Cambodia 0 0
Sri Lanka 0 0


ANCq3 - 13 to 28 (or 29 if China is in this group)

Philippines 80,70 2,65
India 79,87 2,53
Kyrgyzstan 79,70 4,72
Lebanon 78,90 11,00
Kuwait 78,27 13,28
Turkmenistan 76,65 -1,86
Bahrain 72,06 -7,29
Afghanistan 68,11 5,59
Vietnam 66,08 4,43
Thailand 65,86 1,67
Palestine 63,26 -7,79
Tajikistan 62,35 -17,03
Saudi Arabia 60,67 17,11
Maldives 58,13 13,25
Korea DPR 57,90 -22,60
Malaysia 56,91 20,46
Iraq 56,64 10,83
Singapore 49,65 25,29
Uzbekistan 45,77 17,65
Yemen 41,03 2,95
Jordan 39,48 -12,76
Oman 32,76 -7,11
United Arab Emirates 31,23 -7,64
Hong Kong 28,49 -23,81
Myanmar 24,86 -36,80
Nepal 23,01 16,06
Syria 22,97 3,80
Indonesia 22,78 -35,19
Mongolia 14,76 12,34
China PR 14,22 -3,88
Iran 12,70 4,90
Qatar 12,39 8,37
Australia 7,75 -6,30
Korea Republic 7,04 2,63
Chinese Taipei 6,74 -12,27
Bangladesh 4,01 -0,23
Japan 3,90 2,15
Guam 3,53 -5,88
Cambodia 2,55 0,72
Sri Lanka 0,54 0,18


Play-off qualification AFC Nations Cup 2023 - 29 (or 30) to 40


Sri Lanka 99,46 -0,18
Cambodia 97,45 -0,72
Guam 96,47 5,89
Bangladesh 95,98 0,22
Chinese Taipei 93,26 12,31
Mongolia 85,19 -12,39
Nepal 76,98 -16,06
Indonesia 76,76 42,19
Myanmar 75,03 38,01
Hong Kong 71,36 24,25
Yemen 57,16 -3,89
Singapore 47,81 -27,46
Maldives 40,58 -13,99
Malaysia 39,88 -21,20
Afghanistan 29,04 -7,32
Turkmenistan 19,10 0,11
India 16,93 -2,09
Philippines 12,80 -3,37
Vietnam 9,32 -0,94
Palestine 7,76 -4,51
Saudi Arabia 7,57 6,57
Kyrgyzstan 6,91 3,67
Lebanon 6,54 4,58
Thailand 4,77 -10,94
Uzbekistan 3,33 2,96
Kuwait 2,77 1,62
Bahrain 2,02 -2,99
United Arab Emirates 0,84 -1,51
Iraq 0,77 0,30
Tajikistan 0,72 -4,98
Korea DPR 0,46 -3,79
Oman 0,30 -0,10
Jordan 0,20 -0,48
Syria 0,16 0,06
Qatar 0,05 0,05
Australia 0,02 0,01
Iran 0,02 0,02
Korea Republic 0,01 0,01
China PR 0 -0,04
Japan 0 0

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9 comments:

  1. Great work Ed. These simulations gave me more hope that my NT Jordan is capable to qualify to next round WCQ3.

    But I'm wondering, the probabilities of EloClub based on which factors.. As Example, in these probabilities, it is considered that Uzbekistan have more chance over Saudi Arabia to get first place, while actually Uzbekistan is lower in last Fifa ranking?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Tarek, the result in a predicted match in these simulations is based on ClubElo's formula for scored goals. This formula uses the elo win expectancy for each team in a match.
      In the elo ranking Uzbekistan is considerably higher rated than Saudi Arabia (1584 vs. 1476).

      Win expectancy based on FIFA could be used also, but until now elo ranking still performs much better than the FIFA ranking regarding predicting win/draw/loss: elo: 56,8% prediction success-rate, FIFA only 44,6%.

      Delete
    2. Yes, you are right. Elo ranking is more accurate specially that it depends on the results since many years, while fifa fixed the old ranking concept and started new concept from 2018.

      Delete
  2. Ed, do you know when the draw for the group phase of the African qualifiers for 2022 is being made? And on what rankings they will be basing the pots? Thanks in advance.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No, I haven't read anything about the group stage draw yet. I only know that the first matches in that stage will be played in March 2020, so the draw will be before that FIFA-window.

      As there is a chance that FIFA will not publish a January or February 2020 ranking, the savest bet for the used seeding ranking will be the December 2019 ranking. But nothing's certain about that either. It's just a guess.

      Delete
  3. Okay, thanks Ed. They will only need 6 matchdays for the group phase, so March 2020 seems very early to be starting it. I presume the eventual 5 play-offs will not be until March 2022.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Well, there are 3 arguments:
      1 - CAF needs the 3 FIFA windows in Autumn 2020 for the CAF Nations Cup 2021 qualifiers.
      2 - The play-off round for WC qualifying will be already in November 2021.
      3 - CAF mostly plays only one match day in a FIFA window because of travelling restrictions.
      In short they need to start in March 2020.

      Delete