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Wednesday, September 11, 2019

2020 UEFA EURO qualification: 10000 simulations (11 September 2019)

The matchdays five and six in qualifying for EURO 2020 were played last week. See here for more information on the qualification process and the simulation results before the first qualifier was played. See here and here for the simulation results after resp. MD2 (March) and MD4 (June).


Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- for each UEFA team to qualify for EURO 2020, directly (Qdirect) or via the play-offs (po-semi, po-final and po-win). In column Qtot the total probability to qualify for EURO 2020 as the sum of Qdirect and po-win. Teams are ordered by this column. The two last columns indicate the difference in Qdirect en Qtot (in percentage-points) compared to the simulations after MD4.


team_grp     Qdirect    po-semi    po-final      po-win          Qtot   diff Qdir   diff Qtot
Belgium - I 100,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 100,00 0,07 0,05
Italy - J 100,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 100,00 1,49 1,10
Spain - F 99,98 0,02 0,01 0,00 99,98 1,90 1,08
England - A 99,76 0,24 0,19 0,13 99,89 2,35 1,63
France - H 99,61 0,39 0,34 0,20 99,81 4,27 1,80
Russia - I 99,22 0,78 0,35 0,20 99,42 28,23 22,43
Germany - C 98,26 1,74 1,40 0,96 99,22 3,24 1,91
Portugal - B 97,45 2,55 2,16 1,65 99,10 32,03 15,51
Ukraine - B 98,37 1,63 0,71 0,49 98,86 3,52 2,43
Netherlands - C 93,71 6,29 5,26 4,09 97,80 25,01 12,03
Turkey - H 94,50 5,47 2,64 1,18 95,68 41,54 33,28
Poland - G 91,77 8,23 4,96 2,13 93,90 -5,10 -3,43
Croatia - E 84,76 15,24 11,84 8,06 92,82 18,74 15,54
Finland - J 90,20 9,80 4,12 1,28 91,48 19,10 16,23
Switzerland - D 80,03 19,97 15,65 10,66 90,69 6,78 7,51
Denmark - D 66,33 33,67 24,30 18,21 84,54 -7,71 -3,33
Czech Republic - A 78,67 21,29 9,78 4,91 83,58 3,03 4,79
Sweden - F 67,04 32,96 19,17 13,08 80,12 -3,96 -1,91
Austria - G 59,72 40,28 18,26 9,95 69,67 -0,21 2,87
Slovakia - E 52,23 47,69 24,79 14,04 66,27 6,24 7,88
Republic of Ireland - D 53,51 46,39 23,28 12,40 65,91 1,76 5,63
Wales - E 37,78 62,21 33,11 18,49 56,27 6,73 9,40
Serbia - B 4,15 95,85 66,17 48,46 52,61 -34,60 -16,14
Kosovo - A 21,45 78,55 44,55 24,22 45,67 -1,88 -2,05
Slovenia - G 39,38 0,00 0,00 0,00 39,38 27,68 27,68
Hungary - E 25,23 58,02 23,96 8,96 34,19 -31,68 -28,46
Romania - F 22,68 32,95 19,17 11,30 33,98 4,52 -0,27
Georgia - D 0,13 99,87 65,20 33,00 33,13 -0,83 -1,13
Norway - F 10,30 89,70 30,61 19,98 30,28 -2,46 -5,67
Iceland - H 4,41 95,56 50,21 20,72 25,13 -46,55 -31,66
North Macedonia - G 3,38 96,62 43,57 21,60 24,98 0,59 3,42
Bosnia-Herzegovina - J 5,08 94,92 53,56 19,84 24,92 -12,98 -16,18
Northern Ireland - C 8,03 90,44 37,71 14,16 22,19 -28,25 -21,35
Belarus - C 0,00 100,00 41,23 19,76 19,76 0,00 -1,72
Scotland - I 0,76 99,24 59,19 17,99 18,75 -25,17 -23,75
Israel - G 5,75 86,86 26,88 7,66 13,41 -22,94 -21,03
Bulgaria - A 0,09 99,58 30,20 8,82 8,91 -0,59 -1,03
Armenia - J 4,61 0,68 0,30 0,19 4,80 -0,13 -0,11
Albania - H 1,48 0,00 0,00 0,00 1,48 0,74 0,72
Luxembourg - B 0,03 24,22 5,14 1,22 1,25 -0,89 -1,56
Greece - J 0,11 0,04 0,02 0,00 0,11 -7,48 -8,00
Montenegro - A 0,03 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,03 -2,91 -2,91
Cyprus - I 0,02 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,02 -0,81 -0,81
Azerbaijan - E 0,00 0,06 0,01 0,01 0,01 -0,03 -0,02
Kazakhstan - I 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 -2,32 -2,32
Lithuania - B 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 -0,06 -0,06
Latvia - G 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 -0,02 -0,02
Estonia - C 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
Moldova - H 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
Malta - F 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
Andorra - H 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
Faroe Islands - F 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
Gibraltar - D 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
Liechtenstein - J 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
San Marino - I 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00

Winners of this week are Turkey and Russia. Although in Turkey's case it may not be completely by own strength, but partly because Iceland shot themselves terribly in the foot in Albania. 
Portugal and the Netherlands (the top 2 of the UNL ranking) had very vital wins against Serbia and Germany to be able to look forward to direct qualification with more confidence. And well done to Finland. Could this become their first ever final tournament ? With some 90% probability they can start a special party.


Bad times for Iceland, Serbia and Hungary. Serbia still has a good chance via the play-offs though.
And wow ..... Greece, what happened to you ?

A preview of the composition of the play-off paths can be determined by taking the top two from each group with highest probabilities to qualify directly out of the equation and see which teams will qualify for the play-offs in that situation:

The 4 UNL group winners from league D: Georgia (40), North Macedonia (41), Kosovo (42) and Belarus (43).
Now Finland qualifies directly the 3 remaining UNL group winners from league C: Scotland (25), Norway (26) and Serbia (27).
From league B group winner Bosnia-Herzegovina (13).
From league A all group winners qualify directly.

The following non group-winners (ngw) complete the play-offs:
from league A Iceland (12)
from league B Wales (19), Republic of Ireland (23) and Northern Ireland (24)
from league C Bulgaria (29), Israel (30), Hungary (31) and Romania (32)

League D - 4 group winners
League C - 3 group-winners + 4 non group-winners => draw: 3 ngw's to path A
League B - 1 group-winner + 3 non group-winners
League A - 1 non group-winner

This leads to the following play-off semi finals:

D-path
Georgia - Belarus
North Macedonia - Kosovo

C-path
Scotland - draw from Bulgaria/Israel/Hungary/Romania
Norway - Serbia

B-path
Bosnia-Herzegovina - Northern Ireland
Wales - Republic of Ireland

A-path
Iceland - draw from Hungary/Romania
draw from Bulgaria/Israel - draw from Israel/Hungary

Finally a first preview of the pots for the draw of the final tournament EURO 2020, ordered by average overall EURO 2020 qualification ranking position:


team                           pot 1      pot 2      pot 3      pot 4
Belgium 93,10 6,08 0,82 0
Italy 92,81 7,04 0,15 0
Spain 81,64 17,53 0,80 0,01
England 78,02 18,68 2,91 0,28
France 55,36 30,16 13,76 0,53
Netherlands 47,81 33,01 12,89 4,09
---------------------------
Germany 38,07 50,68 9,48 0,99
Portugal 33,54 31,21 32,49 1,86
Ukraine 29,86 28,50 39,92 0,58
Turkey 20,85 57,15 15,85 1,83
Poland 3,80 69,11 12,55 8,44
Switzerland 11,18 41,35 27,06 11,10
---------------------------
Croatia 4,38 59,13 19,32 9,99
Russia 4,76 27,63 62,51 4,52
Denmark 1,95 27,84 35,60 19,15
Republic of Ireland 2,02 18,60 30,30 14,99
Finland 0,04 2,18 49,24 40,02
Czech Republic 0,13 4,84 49,19 29,42
---------------------------
Slovakia 0,13 15,79 29,10 21,25
Sweden 0,01 1,08 41,34 37,69
Austria 0 12,01 29,44 28,22
Serbia 0 0,17 3,91 48,53
Northern Ireland 0,42 2,14 5,41 14,22
Wales 0,05 13,87 17,94 24,41
Slovenia 0 13,76 9,32 16,30
Hungary 0,02 6,80 13,76 13,61
Kosovo 0 0,62 10,31 34,74
Iceland 0,05 1,03 3,17 20,88
Romania 0 0,29 11,97 21,72
Albania 0 0,25 1,18 0,05
Norway 0 0,02 5,30 24,96
Armenia 0 0 0,72 4,08
Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 0 1,08 23,84
Scotland 0 0 0,05 18,70
Georgia 0 0 0,07 33,06
Israel 0 0,71 0,94 11,76
Kazakhstan 0 0 0 0
North Macedonia 0 0,74 0,14 24,10
Belarus 0 0 0 19,76
Luxembourg 0 0 0 1,25
Montenegro 0 0 0 0,03
Bulgaria 0 0 0 8,91
Greece 0 0 0,01 0,10
Cyprus 0 0 0 0,02
Azerbaijan 0 0 0 0,01
Lithuania 0 0 0 0
Estonia 0 0 0 0
Moldova 0 0 0 0
Gibraltar 0 0 0 0
Malta 0 0 0 0
Latvia 0 0 0 0
Faroe Islands 0 0 0 0
Liechtenstein 0 0 0 0
Andorra 0 0 0 0
San Marino 0 0 0 0

About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

6 comments:

  1. Am I thinking about it wrong or does Denmark have a higher chance of winning the playoff-final (18,21/24,30= 74,94%) than the playoff-semifinal (24,30/33,67= 72,17%)? I can't really figure out why this is the case. In the PO-final, it's 50/50 whether they are at home, while they are almost certain to play the semifinal at home due to Ukraine qualifying directly. Are they likely to face a poorer team in the final?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The Danish winning chances in semi-final and final are 'equal' within the margins of this simulation.
      Home advantage surely plays a (small) role in determining predicted outcomes of scheduled matches and the final is indeed a 50/50 coin-toss for that matter.
      The Danes are just a strong team compared to most possible participants in the play-offs, I guess.

      Delete
  2. This is fantastic work, thank you.

    The play-offs are really starting to take shape. If the Republic of Ireland do end up playing Wales they'll really be sick of the sight of each other.

    To my mind the teams in the C-path play offs seem stronger than those in the A path!

    ReplyDelete
  3. I'm just curious here: why do teams from League C jump into the League A play-offs? Wouldn't it make more sense for the League B teams to flow upwards?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Two rules:
      1. when there are 4 teams of a certain league qualified for the play-offs, they form their own path
      2. UNL group winners can't play against teams from a higher league.

      Delete