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Thursday, March 28, 2019

2020 UEFA EURO qualification: 10000 simulations (28 March 2019)

The first two matchdays in qualifying for EURO 2020 were played last week. See here for more information on the qualification process and the simulation results before the first qualifier was played.


Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- for each UEFA team to qualify for EURO 2020, directly (Qdirect) or via the play-offs (po-semi, po-final and po-win). In column Qtot the total probability to qualify for EURO 2020 as the sum of Qdirect and po-win. Teams are ordered by this column. The two last columns indicate the difference in Qdirect en Qtot (in percentage-points) compared to the first simulations from December 2018.


team  Qdirect po-semi  po-final   po-win       Qtot diff Qdir diff Qtot
Belgium - I 99,40 0,60 0,46 0,37 99,77 2,05 0,80
France - H 99,39 0,61 0,48 0,37 99,76 0,62 0,16
England - A 99,43 0,57 0,38 0,19 99,62 11,05 7,07
Germany - C 95,10 4,83 3,56 2,15 97,25 4,40 1,69
Spain - F 93,04 6,96 5,34 3,79 96,83 -0,88 -0,65
Italy - J 88,26 11,73 7,63 4,07 92,33 7,33 4,67
Netherlands - C 83,15 16,85 12,86 8,65 91,80 -0,99 0,68
Switzerland - D 83,55 16,45 12,79 7,68 91,23 5,54 3,92
Poland - G 88,35 11,54 5,43 2,00 90,35 11,04 7,94
Denmark - D 77,94 22,06 16,47 11,56 89,50 -1,12 0,30
Portugal - B 67,91 32,09 25,10 16,65 84,56 -19,16 -8,68
Sweden - F 70,31 29,69 20,03 12,80 83,11 13,33 9,65
Serbia - B 65,46 34,54 24,40 17,57 83,03 12,46 6,80
Croatia - E 67,94 31,99 22,19 13,25 81,19 -16,20 -10,20
Russia - I 74,97 25,03 12,66 5,61 80,58 19,24 14,53
Ukraine - B 66,10 33,90 21,00 11,73 77,83 8,72 5,89
Wales - E 64,53 35,28 18,72 8,98 73,51 10,92 6,11
Turkey - H 65,65 33,01 12,26 5,04 70,69 15,43 12,08
Bosnia-Herzegovina - J 54,69 45,31 29,70 14,17 68,86 -8,73 -3,90
Czech Republic - A 54,72 44,32 17,37 7,08 61,80 12,52 12,88
Slovakia - E 42,54 55,72 28,85 14,56 57,10 -5,17 -3,97
Republic of Ireland - D 37,36 57,83 25,54 12,34 49,70 2,14 3,30
Austria - G 32,95 67,01 27,93 10,37 43,32 -33,92 -28,91
North Macedonia - G 22,96 77,04 42,42 19,86 42,82 4,74 -2,15
Scotland - I 21,34 78,66 46,53 20,45 41,79 -21,61 -22,40
Israel - G 36,54 53,88 15,87 5,00 41,54 23,98 24,37
Finland - J 28,73 71,27 28,50 11,98 40,71 4,60 3,25
Iceland - H 31,62 67,05 26,42 8,63 40,25 -3,67 -4,63
Norway - F 12,68 87,32 48,20 26,78 39,46 -2,98 4,78
Romania - F 23,96 25,63 13,88 8,87 32,83 -9,15 -6,27
Georgia - D 1,15 98,85 59,05 31,39 32,54 -6,56 -6,25
Hungary - E 23,83 49,84 17,74 7,26 31,09 10,94 12,01
Bulgaria - A 18,37 80,19 29,71 11,65 30,02 -16,76 -17,65
Belarus - C 1,01 98,99 49,28 27,84 28,85 -3,46 -2,06
Greece - J 27,82 3,09 1,03 0,48 28,30 -0,22 -0,36
Kosovo - A 9,46 90,54 41,20 18,75 28,21 2,68 9,21
Northern Ireland - C 19,50 64,07 20,73 7,86 27,36 1,31 1,88
Slovenia - G 18,63 0,00 0,00 0,00 18,63 -4,86 -4,86
Montenegro - A 18,02 0,11 0,03 0,01 18,03 -9,49 -9,52
Albania - H 3,18 0,95 0,20 0,05 3,23 -11,91 -11,96
Cyprus - I 2,84 0,02 0,01 0,00 2,84 -0,02 -0,02
Luxembourg - B 0,38 31,58 7,22 1,76 2,14 -0,93 -1,85
Kazakhstan - I 1,45 0,00 0,00 0,00 1,45 0,34 0,34
Estonia - C 1,24 0,00 0,00 0,00 1,24 -1,26 -1,26
Azerbaijan - E 1,16 0,08 0,03 0,01 1,17 -0,49 -0,55
Armenia - J 0,50 2,92 0,80 0,39 0,89 -2,94 -3,31
Latvia - G 0,57 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,57 -0,98 -0,98
Moldova - H 0,16 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,16 -0,46 -0,46
Lithuania - B 0,15 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,15 -1,09 -1,09
Malta - F 0,01 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,01 -0,04 -0,04
Andorra - H 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 -0,01 -0,01
Faroe Islands - F 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 -0,28 -0,28
Gibraltar - D 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
Liechtenstein - J 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 -0,04 -0,04
San Marino - I 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00


It is still early days but Israel has dealt the first blow against Austria. Croatia made things more difficult for themselves, but are still expected to qualify. In the group with Portugal, Serbia and Ukraine there is a tough fight going on, the qualification probabilities are almost equal for the three teams.


A preview of the composition of the play-off paths can be determined by taking the top two from each group with highest probabilities to qualify directly out of the equation and see which teams will qualify for the play-offs in that situation:

The 4 UNL group winners from league D: Georgia (40), North Macedonia (41), Kosovo (42) and Belarus (43).
The 4 UNL group winners from league C: Scotland (25), Norway (26), Serbia (27) and Finland (28).
No UNL group winners from league B or A qualify for the play-offs.

The following teams complete the play-offs:
from league A Iceland (12)
from league B Austria (18), Slovakia (21), Republic of Ireland (23) and Northern Ireland (24)
from league C Bulgaria (29), Hungary (31) and Romania (32)

This leads to the following play-off semi finals:

D-path
Georgia - Belarus
North Macedonia - Kosovo

C-path
Scotland - Finland
Norway - Serbia

B-path
Austria - Northern Ireland
Slovakia - Republic of Ireland

A-path
Iceland - Romania
Bulgaria - Hungary

Based on highest probability to qualify via the play-offs the 4 qualifiers from these play-offs are Georgia, Norway, Slovakia and Bulgaria.

About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

19 comments:

  1. Thank you for doing this. It's interesting to see that - in this scenario - almost all teams (19 out of 25) in the groups of five would still be alive (either qualified or going to the play-offs) at the end of November.

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  2. Great work. There is no FYR Macedonia anymore. Now it's North Macedonia.

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  3. You are welcome and you are right. Apologies to all North Macedonians. I will update my system.

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  4. As a suggestion I would add A, B, C (etc) to the table to make it easier to see what qualifying group each team is in.

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  5. Thanks for the feedback. Fixed.

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  6. Ed,

    Looking into the playoffs in more detail I'm not sure you have it right. As far as I can tell the playoffs will be filled from leagues D to A, in that order.
    Which means, using your model, Austria, Slovakia, Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland all move up to fill the league B playoffs.
    This leaves only Iceland to fill the League A playoff, which will then be allocated the highest ranked remaining teams which will be Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania.
    Which gives the following paths:
    B: Austria v N Ireland, Slovakia v Rep of Ireland
    A: Iceland v Romania, Bulgaria v Hungary

    As the Nations league has already set the order for filling the groups there won't be another draw as you suggest.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Additional -
    As far as I can see, the only purpose of UEFA's playoff draw they advertise on their website for 22nd November 2019, will be for home advantage in the finals for the winners of each semi-final.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There could be a draw that determines who goes in which path. Depends on which teams are left. If for example, there were only 3 League B teams available, there would be a draw to see which League C non-group-winner would join them and which ones would go to the League A path. But yeah, if there are four League B teams left as well as all four League C winners, no need for a draw.

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    2. Hi Dennis,

      My point was that there already has been a "draw" to determine who goes in which path and it is the ranking order of the final UEFA Nations League places.

      UEFA quite clearly say - a scenario is even shown in their short playoff youtube video - that they will fill available places in playoffs from group D first, then C, B and finally A. Which means if they will fill them up in strict Nation League ranking order. No need for a draw.

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  8. Hi David,

    This is the situation with regard to qualified teams for the play-offs:
    D: 4 group winners
    C: 4 group winners and 3 non group winners
    B: 4 non group winners
    A: 1 non group winner

    League D get filled first: 4 group winners, easy to form the D-path.
    League C get filled next: 4 group winners, easy to form the C-path.

    Then remains:
    C: 3 non group winners
    B: 4 non group winners
    A: 1 non group winner

    You are right. In this case, as there are 4 non group winners from B available, they should be put together in the B-path and the remaining teams form the A-path. Indeed no draw required, I will adapt my post.

    Then to confim Dennis:

    Should the remaining situation after filling D- and C-path be for instance:
    C: 3 non group winners
    B: 3 non group winners
    A: 2 non group winners
    there certainly will be a draw in that case, because it isn't clear which teams must form the B-path, as there are less than 4 teams from B available. But at the same time there are no group winners from B left. So they may be paired with teams from league A. So a (seeded) draw is performed to determine which teams are paired in each path.
    FIFA published in September 2017 a UEFA Nations League Media Briefing where this specific case is described as scenario 2.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Many thanks for pointing to that article. It explains it much better than UEFA.

    So, we could end up with Group A teams in Path B. And their scenario 3 is where the whole convoluted process becomes unstuck. In their example Poland losing out to Cyprus? No disrespect to Poland but imagine if that was Germany or Spain?

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  10. You're welcome, that pdf is worth downloading. It contains the best explanation for this rather complex process.

    And indeed, that would raise an eyebrow or two (and after that probably unleash a storm of protest) when this specific scenario 3 might occur, may it be Poland or any other team from league A. Exciting !

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  11. Oh, I saw I inadvertently wrote FIFA published the media briefing, but that's nonsense. FIFA has nothing to do with the UNL, that's entirely UEFA's party.

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  12. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  13. What happens with final tournament pots if both group hosts (e.g. Germany and Hungary) are from the same pot? If that group has two pot 2 teams, does that mean that some other group will have two pot 1 teams?

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  14. I don't know Nogomet. The regulations state about the final tournament draw:
    18.03 The following principles apply to the final tournament draw:
    a. The teams are seeded in accordance with the overall European Qualifiers rankings (see Article 23).
    b. The teams of the host associations, if they qualify or could qualify via the playoffs, are drawn into groups in accordance with the host city pairings decided by the UEFA Executive Committee in advance.
    c. Additional conditions may be applied, subject to approval by the UEFA Executive Committee.

    18.04 If it is not possible to finalise the group formations at the time of the final tournament draw, an additional draw is held after the play-off matches have been completed.

    I think this situation typically falls under 18.03c :)

    Can't imagine though that there are circumstances where during the draw two pot 1 teams are grouped in one group. That would be against all draw principles.
    Maybe instead they will separate the two concerned teams before the draw into different pots on some extra condition.

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    Replies
    1. Well, if Germany get promoted to Pot 1, then some other team needs to be relegated to Pot 2. Let's imagine that team is France. And France gets drawn into the group with England. In essence, we have two Pot 1 teams in the same group - England and France. So, it seems to me it's possible?

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  15. Fascinating analysis. Looking forward to seeing how the latest round of qualifiers effects things.

    From a Northern Ireland perspective it's reassuring to know that in spite of losing all 4 Nations League games, there's still a decent chance of a playoff place.

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  16. I definitely will be interested to see how the results of MD's 3 and 4 have impacted direct Euro 2020 qualification and anticipated playoff teams.

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