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Monday, December 10, 2018

2020 UEFA EURO qualification: 10000 simulations (10 december 2018)

The ten qualification groups for EURO 2020 were drawn last week. Now it's possible to simulate the complete match schedule, including the play-offs in March 2020 for the last 4 spots at the EURO's. These play-offs are a second chance for the group winners of the Nations League if they can't qualify directly by finishing first or second in their qualification group.

Monday, December 3, 2018

2022 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations (3 december 2018)

The group stage of the UEFA Nations League 2018/2019 is finished. Yesterday was the draw for the qualification groups for EURO 2020 and today the draw for the Final Four of the Nations League. Finally all the ingredients are available for a complete simulation of the seeding for the European qualification for the World Cup 2022, bar the odd missing friendly of course.

I still think the July 2019 ranking will probably be used to determine the seeding for the World Cup 2022 European qualification draw.

The qualification format is not yet known in detail. I will give probabilities for three different formats with seeding pots consisting of 9, 10 or 11 teams.

Sunday, November 25, 2018

2021 UEFA Under-21 qualifying seeding (25 november 2018)

The qualifying campaign for the U-21 EURO 2019 in Italy/San Marino has finished and the draw for the final tournament has been made last Friday.

Next in December/January the draw of the qualification for the U-21 EURO 2021 will take place. The host for this tournament will be announced at the UEFA Executive Committee meeting in Dublin on December 2nd/3rd.

This draw will be seeded based on the U-21 NT coefficient ranking.

CONCACAF Nations League 2020 Q simulations (20 October)

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the qualfying phase of the CONCACAF Nations League 2020 -generated over 10.000 simulations- after the second match day.
Simulation results after the first match day can be found here.

CONCACAF Nations League 2020 Q simulations (24 November)

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the qualfying phase of the CONCACAF Nations League 2020 -generated over 10.000 simulations- after the third match day. The match British Virgin Islands - Bonaire was postponed to a later date.

Simulation results after the first and second match day can be found respectively here and here.

Thursday, November 22, 2018

FIFA ranking: November 2018 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking next Thursday November 29th. Only four matches to be played until then: the final round of the group stage of the South East Asian Championship 2018 this weekend.

This is how the points and ranks could change for the teams involved:

     min pts     low pos     max pts    high pos
Malaysia 979 170 984 167
Myanmar 1085 139 1090 138
Vietnam 1219 103 1224 100
Cambodia 970 172 975 172
Indonesia 1000 162 1005 159
Philippines 1173 115 1178 113
Thailand 1156 122 1161 118
Singapore 991 165 996 163

In the table below I've used their current points and positions.

Monday, November 12, 2018

FIFA ranking: November 2018 probable results

Here are the probable results of all currently scheduled matches until November 25th, used to calculate the November 2018 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) into the FIFA fixture-list at the moment of writing. Also the Expected Home Win Probability (We) according to elo is given for each match in %.

Sunday, November 11, 2018

FIFA ranking: November 2018 preview

Here are the minimum and maximum points for each team in the November 2018 ranking. FIFA will publish the ranking on November 29th.

Lots of matches to be played this International Match Calendar window: 159 matches are scheduled with 136 currently in FIFA's fixture list.

Also check the probable November ranking.

FIFA ranking: November 2018 probable ranking

Here is the probable November 2018 ranking, to be published on November 29th. This preview is calculated with elo-predicted results for all 136 currently scheduled matches in FIFA's fixture list. 
A total of 159 matches is scheduled to be played until the deadline of November 25th. 17 Scheduled friendlies are not yet included, as are 6 matches featuring non-FIFA members.

FIFA ranking: November 2018 preview results

Here are the scheduled matches counting for the FIFA November 2018 ranking with FIFA's Expected Home Win Probability (We) in % and the points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team. In cases where matches can go to PSO, also the points exchanged when the home team wins (PSO-W) or loses (PSO-L) the penalty shoot-out are given.

Thursday, November 1, 2018

The new FIFA calculation: a brief comparative analysis (II)

See here for my previous post about the new FIFA calculation method. It explains how I came by the set of numbers used here.

There are suspicions that the number of points to be gained per match in relation to the points gaps that will occur in the ranking when using the new method for a prolonged period, will result in too little chances to improve a team's ranking in an relatively short amount of time. The previous post showed that the climb in ranking positions for 'ín form' teams indeed was (much) slower than in the 'old' FIFA-ranking.

Wednesday, October 24, 2018

The new FIFA calculation: a brief comparative analysis

To get some more numerical insight in the effects of the new calculation method I've calculated the last 8 years of matches counting for the FIFA-ranking with the new calculation method.

Starting values for all matches from May 24th 2010 were determined, based on the May 2010 FIFA ranking positions, in the same way as was done by FIFA last Summer: the first team gets 1600 points (number one Brazil's actual FIFA rating at the time was 1611), the next team gets 4 points less. Teams on the same position get the same starting value.
All International Match Calendar windows from 2010 onwards were determined to correctly apply the I-factor of 10 for friendlies falling inside such a window.

Sunday, October 21, 2018

2021 UEFA Under-21 qualifying seeding

Since I've been asked about it:

Only two play-offs are to be played in November 2018 to complete the 12-team field for the U-21 EURO 2019. Those play-offs are held between Greece and Austria and between Poland and Portugal.

These four play-off matches will count for the coefficient ranking used to seed the U-21's for the draw of the qualification for the U-21 EURO 2021 next December/January. I couldn't find an announcement of the appointed host for this tournament yet.

2022 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations (20 october 2018)

Matchdays 3 and 4 in the UEFA Nations League 2018/2019 are played. Below the current probabilities (in %) for each team to end in each pot are presented, generated over 10.000 simulations. Teams are ordered by their average pot position.

The July 2019 ranking will probably be used to determine the seeding for the World Cup 2022 European qualification draw.

2020 UEFA EURO qualification seeding: 10000 simulations (20 october 2018)

Here is an update after MD3 and MD4 in the UEFA Nations League 2018/2019 of the probabilities (in %) for each team to end in each pot -generated over 10.000 simulations- with teams ordered by their average UNL-ranking position.

Thursday, October 18, 2018

FIFA ranking: October 2018 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking next Thursday October 25th.

Best movers:
8 - Gibraltar
7 - Zimbabwe, Namibia


Worst movers:
-9 - Mozambique
-6 - Northern Ireland, Libya, Hungary, Congo DR

Saturday, October 6, 2018

FIFA ranking: October 2018 preview

Here are the minimum and maximum points for each team in the October 2018 ranking. FIFA will publish the ranking on October 25th.


Lots of matches to be played this International Match Calendar window: 167 matches are scheduled with 136 currently in FIFA's fixture list. 
Most of the UEFA and CONMEBOL/CONCACAF friendlies are still to be incorporated though.

FIFA ranking: October 2018 preview results

Here are the scheduled matches counting for the FIFA October 2018 ranking with FIFA's Expected Home Win Probability (We) in % and the points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team. In cases where matches can go to PSO, also the points exchanged when the home team wins (PSO-W) or loses (PSO-L) the penalty shoot-out are given.

FIFA ranking: October 2018 probable ranking

Here is the probable October 2018 ranking, to be published on October 25th. This preview is calculated with elo-predicted results for all 136 currently scheduled matches in FIFA's fixture list. A total of 167 matches is scheduled to be played until October 16th.

FIFA ranking: October 2018 probable results

Here are the results of all currently scheduled matches until October 16th, used to calculate the October 2018 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) into the FIFA fixture-list at the moment of writing. Also the Expected Home Win Probability (We) according to elo is given for each match in %.

Sunday, September 16, 2018

2022 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations (15 September 2018)

The first two matchdays in the UEFA Nations League 2018/2019 are played. Below the current probabilities (in %) for each team to end in each pot are presented, generated over 10.000 simulations. Teams are ordered by their average pot position.

2020 UEFA EURO qualification seeding: 10000 simulations (15 september 2018)

Here is an update after MD1 and MD2 in the UEFA Nations League 2018/2019 of the probabilities (in %) for each team to end in each pot -generated over 10.000 simulations- with teams ordered by their average UNL-ranking position.
The simulation results before the start of the UNL 2018/2019 and more details about the EURO 2020 qualification can be found here.

Saturday, September 15, 2018

CONCACAF Nations League 2020 Q simulations (15 September)

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the qualfying phase of the CONCACAF Nations League 2020 -generated over 10.000 simulations- after the first match day (match Martinique - British Virgin Islands still to be played).
Simulation results from before the start of qualification can be found here.

Wednesday, September 12, 2018

FIFA ranking: September 2018 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking next Thursday September 20th. Only one match to be played until then: the final this Saturday of the South Asian Championship between India and Maldives.

Sunday, September 9, 2018

2020 UEFA EURO qualification seeding: 10000 simulations (5 september 2018)

The overall UNL-ranking will be compiled after completion of the group stage of the UEFA Nations League 2018/2019. This ranking is used to seed the draw on December 2nd 2018 in Dublin for the qualifying stage of EURO 2020, which will run from March to November 2019 and will consist of 10 groups of 5 or 6 teams. The group numbers one and two of each group qualify for EURO 2020.

Wednesday, September 5, 2018

2022 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations (5 September 2018)

In the FIFA International Match Calendar 2018-2024 the preliminary draw for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar is scheduled for July 2019. The final draw is scheduled for April 2022.
The July 2019 ranking will probably be used to determine the seeding for the World Cup 2022 European qualification draw.

The upcoming UEFA Nations League will for a large part establish this ranking. Only the first part of the EURO 2020 qualification (2 MD's in March 2019 and 2 MD's in June 2019) is yet unknown (and several friendlies of course), but the July 2019 ranking for UEFA-teams can be simulated already taking into account all UNL-matches (6 MD's in each group and the Final Four in June 2019) and all scheduled friendlies.

Saturday, September 1, 2018

FIFA ranking: September 2018 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on September 20th.

Lots of matches for the UEFA Nations League groups, CONCACAF Nations League qualifiers, CAF Nations Cup qualifiers, a few regional Asian tournaments and also still a reasonable amount of friendlies.

Also check the probable September ranking.

FIFA ranking: September 2018 probable ranking

FIFA has adopted a new calculation method for their ranking. The elo-like method was used for the first time for the August 2018 ranking, published on August 16th. With that publication and the accompanying document almost all questions around the new calculation method were answered. FIFA was transparant after all about their starting values, how to handle matches that went to extra time and PSO and in what cases teams don't get points deducted. 

FIFA ranking: September 2018 probable results

Here are the results of all currently scheduled matches until September 16th, used to calculate the September 2018 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is incorporated (1) or not (0) into the FIFA fixture-list at the moment of writing. Also the Expected Home Win Probability (We) according to elo is given for each match in %.

FIFA ranking: September 2018 preview results

A new overview presenting the scheduled matches counting for the FIFA September 2018 ranking with FIFA's Expected Home Win Probability (We) in % and the points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team. In cases where matches can go to PSO, also the points exchanged when the home team wins (PSO-W) or loses (PSO-L) the penalty shoot-out are given.

Saturday, July 28, 2018

Uncertainties about FIFA's new calculation method

Example: let's assume that in an elo-system team A has 1200 points as 'the value before a match' and team B has 1500 points as 'the value before a match' when they play a friendly match (not in a FIFA International Match Calendar window) against each other with A as the home team. A wins 1:0.


Monday, July 23, 2018

CONCACAF Nations League 2020 Q simulations

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the qualfying phase of the CONCACAF Nations League 2020 -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.

In this qualifying phase 34 teams each play four matches, two at home and two away. For the draw of these matches the teams were placed in 2 pots of 8 teams and 2 pots of 9 teams, according to a new ranking for CONCACAF teams. This ranking is also established in an elo-like way (like the new FIFA ranking) but so poorly documented that I didn't even tried to calculate it.

Monday, July 16, 2018

FIFA Ranking: July 2018 final preview (old method)

I also give you the July 2018 ranking calculated with the 'old' calculation method:


FIFA Ranking: July 2018 final preview (new method)

FIFA has adopted a new calculation method for their ranking. It will be used for the very next ranking, the first ranking after the World Cup, to be published on July 19th.

Here is the final preview of the July 2018 ranking as I think it should be calculated given the information FIFA has provided sofar. There are some points of discussion though that could alter the result considerably:

Monday, June 11, 2018

FIFA ranking: July 2018 probable ranking (new method)

FIFA has adopted a new calculation method for their ranking. It will be used for the very next ranking, the first ranking after the World Cup, to be published on July 19th.

I have made a probable July 2018 ranking, applying the new calculation method for all matches played from June 4th onwards. See the probable results for the predicted results used. 

Saturday, June 9, 2018

FIFA ranking: July 2018 probable results

Here are the predicted results of all currently scheduled matches and the prediction of the matches in the knock-out phase of the World Cup, used to calculate the July 2018 probable ranking. The results are generated using Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team ! It's a mistake !" please take note that these are predictions of scheduled matches. And no, they don't constitute my personal opinion about the matches. Just mathematics doing the job :)

FIFA ranking: July 2018 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on July 19th.

Another few preparatory friendlies this week and then from Thursday the main course: the World Cup in Russia.

Also check the probable July ranking.

Most points gained (worst case scenario)
68 - Paraguay
58 - Kyrgyzstan
57 - Norway

Most points lost (best case scenario)

-217 - Chile
-158 - Netherlands
-134 - El Salvador

FIFA ranking: July 2018 probable ranking

FIFA will publish the ranking on July 19th.

See the results of all matches that contribute to this probable July 2018 ranking.

For minimum/maximum points see the preview.


Monday, June 4, 2018

World Cup 2018 simulations (June 2018)

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the complete World Cup tournament -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.

FIFA ranking: June 2018 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking this Thursday June 7th. 

Best movers:

21 - Azerbaijan
14 - Papua New Guinea
13 - El Salvador, New Zealand

Worst movers:

-18 - Guyana

-17 - Guinea-Bissau, Kyrgyzstan


Saturday, May 26, 2018

FIFA ranking: June 2018 probable results

Here are the results of all currently scheduled matches until June 3rd, used to calculate the June 2018 probable ranking. The results are generated using Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team ! It's a mistake !" please take note that these are predictions of scheduled matches. And no, they don't constitute my personal opinion about the matches. Just mathematics doing the job :)

FIFA ranking: June 2018 probable ranking

FIFA will publish the ranking on June 7th.

See the results of all scheduled matches that contribute to this probable June 2018 ranking.

For minimum/maximum points see the preview.


FIFA ranking: June 2018 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on June 7th.

Lots of friendlies to be played, partially in preparation for the upcoming World Cup. So far FIFA has listed 53 friendlies in their fixture list for the June ranking. Keep in mind, that more will be added at the last moment.

Also check the probable June ranking.

Most points gained (worst case scenario)
58 - Denmark
55 - Poland
46 - Venezuela, Azerbaijan

Most points lost (best case scenario)

-75 - Guinea-Bissau
-44 - Central African Republic
-40 - Sierra Leone

Thursday, May 10, 2018

FIFA Ranking: May 2018 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on May 17th. It was a quiet month with only 6 friendlies played.

Best movers:

9 - Grenada
6 - Benin, Botswana

Worst movers:

-5 - Palestine, St. Lucia
-4 - Jamaica, Iraq, St. Kitts and Nevis


Tuesday, May 8, 2018

Asian Nations Cup 2019 simulations (May 2018)

Last week was the draw for the Asian Nations Cup 2019, played next January in the United Arab Emirates. The format is expanded to 24 teams, playing in 6 groups of 4. Group numbers 1 and 2 qualify for the first knock-out round, together with the four best group numbers 3. The placing of the qualified teams in the round of 16 follows the same system as the EURO 2016 tournament.

The seeding for this draw was based on the April FIFA ranking, but with a small twist: the 12 teams that qualified first in the second qualifying round populated the first two pots, ordered by this ranking. The other 12 teams that qualified later on via the third qualifying round populated pots 3 and 4, once again ordered by this ranking.

Sunday, April 29, 2018

UEFA Nations League 2019 simulations (April 2018)

Let's focus on the UEFA Nations League 2019. 

This competition will be played for the first time on six matchdays this Autumn, with a Final Four (2 one-off semi-finals, a third place play-off and a final) in June next year. The groups were drawn last January.

Sunday, April 15, 2018

FIFA Ranking: May 2018 probable ranking

FIFA will publish the ranking on May 17th.

Only one friendly scheduled at the moment. This is the probable result, computed with the Elo Ratings:

2018-04-17 Trinidad and Tobago - Panama; Friendly; 2

For minimum/maximum points see the preview.


FIFA Ranking: May 2018 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on May 17th.

It will be a quiet month regarding NT-football. Also, FIFA tends to include friendlies only on the last moment into their fixture list nowadays.
This results in only 1 officially scheduled friendly (Trinidad and Tobago - Panama) sofar for the May ranking.

Thursday, March 29, 2018

FIFA Ranking: April 2018 final preview


FIFA will publish the ranking on 12 April. 

1 friendly left Malaysia-Bhutan on April 1st.