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Saturday, July 28, 2018

Uncertainties about FIFA's new calculation method

Example: let's assume that in an elo-system team A has 1200 points as 'the value before a match' and team B has 1500 points as 'the value before a match' when they play a friendly match (not in a FIFA International Match Calendar window) against each other with A as the home team. A wins 1:0.


Monday, July 23, 2018

CONCACAF Nations League 2020 Q simulations

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the qualfying phase of the CONCACAF Nations League 2020 -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.

In this qualifying phase 34 teams each play four matches, two at home and two away. For the draw of these matches the teams were placed in 2 pots of 8 teams and 2 pots of 9 teams, according to a new ranking for CONCACAF teams. This ranking is also established in an elo-like way (like the new FIFA ranking) but so poorly documented that I didn't even tried to calculate it.

Monday, July 16, 2018

FIFA Ranking: July 2018 final preview (old method)

I also give you the July 2018 ranking calculated with the 'old' calculation method:


FIFA Ranking: July 2018 final preview (new method)

FIFA has adopted a new calculation method for their ranking. It will be used for the very next ranking, the first ranking after the World Cup, to be published on July 19th.

Here is the final preview of the July 2018 ranking as I think it should be calculated given the information FIFA has provided sofar. There are some points of discussion though that could alter the result considerably:

Monday, June 11, 2018

FIFA ranking: July 2018 probable ranking (new method)

FIFA has adopted a new calculation method for their ranking. It will be used for the very next ranking, the first ranking after the World Cup, to be published on July 19th.

I have made a probable July 2018 ranking, applying the new calculation method for all matches played from June 4th onwards. See the probable results for the predicted results used. 

Saturday, June 9, 2018

FIFA ranking: July 2018 probable results

Here are the predicted results of all currently scheduled matches and the prediction of the matches in the knock-out phase of the World Cup, used to calculate the July 2018 probable ranking. The results are generated using Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team ! It's a mistake !" please take note that these are predictions of scheduled matches. And no, they don't constitute my personal opinion about the matches. Just mathematics doing the job :)

FIFA ranking: July 2018 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on July 19th.

Another few preparatory friendlies this week and then from Thursday the main course: the World Cup in Russia.

Also check the probable July ranking.

Most points gained (worst case scenario)
68 - Paraguay
58 - Kyrgyzstan
57 - Norway

Most points lost (best case scenario)

-217 - Chile
-158 - Netherlands
-134 - El Salvador

FIFA ranking: July 2018 probable ranking

FIFA will publish the ranking on July 19th.

See the results of all matches that contribute to this probable July 2018 ranking.

For minimum/maximum points see the preview.


Monday, June 4, 2018

World Cup 2018 simulations (June 2018)

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the complete World Cup tournament -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.

FIFA ranking: June 2018 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking this Thursday June 7th. 

Best movers:

21 - Azerbaijan
14 - Papua New Guinea
13 - El Salvador, New Zealand

Worst movers:

-18 - Guyana

-17 - Guinea-Bissau, Kyrgyzstan


Saturday, May 26, 2018

FIFA ranking: June 2018 probable results

Here are the results of all currently scheduled matches until June 3rd, used to calculate the June 2018 probable ranking. The results are generated using Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team ! It's a mistake !" please take note that these are predictions of scheduled matches. And no, they don't constitute my personal opinion about the matches. Just mathematics doing the job :)

FIFA ranking: June 2018 probable ranking

FIFA will publish the ranking on June 7th.

See the results of all scheduled matches that contribute to this probable June 2018 ranking.

For minimum/maximum points see the preview.


FIFA ranking: June 2018 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on June 7th.

Lots of friendlies to be played, partially in preparation for the upcoming World Cup. So far FIFA has listed 53 friendlies in their fixture list for the June ranking. Keep in mind, that more will be added at the last moment.

Also check the probable June ranking.

Most points gained (worst case scenario)
58 - Denmark
55 - Poland
46 - Venezuela, Azerbaijan

Most points lost (best case scenario)

-75 - Guinea-Bissau
-44 - Central African Republic
-40 - Sierra Leone

Thursday, May 10, 2018

FIFA Ranking: May 2018 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on May 17th. It was a quiet month with only 6 friendlies played.

Best movers:

9 - Grenada
6 - Benin, Botswana

Worst movers:

-5 - Palestine, St. Lucia
-4 - Jamaica, Iraq, St. Kitts and Nevis


Tuesday, May 8, 2018

Asian Nations Cup 2019 simulations (May 2018)

Last week was the draw for the Asian Nations Cup 2019, played next January in the United Arab Emirates. The format is expanded to 24 teams, playing in 6 groups of 4. Group numbers 1 and 2 qualify for the first knock-out round, together with the four best group numbers 3. The placing of the qualified teams in the round of 16 follows the same system as the EURO 2016 tournament.

The seeding for this draw was based on the April FIFA ranking, but with a small twist: the 12 teams that qualified first in the second qualifying round populated the first two pots, ordered by this ranking. The other 12 teams that qualified later on via the third qualifying round populated pots 3 and 4, once again ordered by this ranking.

Sunday, April 29, 2018

UEFA Nations League 2019 simulations (April 2018)

Let's focus on the UEFA Nations League 2019. 

This competition will be played for the first time on six matchdays this Autumn, with a Final Four (2 one-off semi-finals, a third place play-off and a final) in June next year. The groups were drawn last January.

Sunday, April 15, 2018

FIFA Ranking: May 2018 probable ranking

FIFA will publish the ranking on May 17th.

Only one friendly scheduled at the moment. This is the probable result, computed with the Elo Ratings:

2018-04-17 Trinidad and Tobago - Panama; Friendly; 2

For minimum/maximum points see the preview.


FIFA Ranking: May 2018 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on May 17th.

It will be a quiet month regarding NT-football. Also, FIFA tends to include friendlies only on the last moment into their fixture list nowadays.
This results in only 1 officially scheduled friendly (Trinidad and Tobago - Panama) sofar for the May ranking.

Thursday, March 29, 2018

FIFA Ranking: April 2018 final preview


FIFA will publish the ranking on 12 April. 

1 friendly left Malaysia-Bhutan on April 1st.