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Thursday, October 18, 2018

FIFA ranking: October 2018 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking next Thursday October 25th.

Best movers:
8 - Gibraltar
7 - Zimbabwe, Namibia


Worst movers:
-9 - Mozambique
-6 - Northern Ireland, Libya, Hungary, Congo DR


Best movers in the top 50:
5 - Russia
4 - Norway, Nigeria, Japan


Worst movers in the top 50:
-6 - Northern Ireland, Congo DR
-3 - Republic of Ireland, Poland


Two teams will improve their best ever ranking:
Kosovo (137 - 138 in September 2018)
Gibraltar (190 - 195 in June 2018)


Four teams will drop to new lows:
Sri Lanka (201 - 200 in November 2017)
British Virgin Islands (207 - 206 in April 2018)
San Marino (209 - 208 in July 2014)
Turks and Caicos Islands (211 - 210 in September 2018)

One team returns to their best ever ranking:
Venezuela (29 in August 2014)


October 2018 rank - Team - October 2018 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points


1 Belgium 1733 0 4,0
2 France 1732 -1 3,0
3 Brazil 1669 0 6,0
4 Croatia 1635 0 1,0
5 England 1619 1 7,0
6 Uruguay 1617 -1 -15,0
7 Portugal 1616 0 10,0
8 Switzerland 1598 0 0,0
9 Spain 1594 0 -3,0
10 Denmark 1584 0 3,0
11 Colombia 1575 3 8,0
12 Argentina 1573 -1 -2,0
13 Chile 1568 -1 0,0
14 Germany 1555 -2 -13,0
15 Netherlands 1550 2 10,0
16 Mexico 1549 -1 -1,0
17 Sweden 1548 -2 -2,0
18 Wales 1538 1 2,0
19 Italy 1533 1 7,0
20 Peru 1530 1 5,0
21 Poland 1523 -3 -14,0
22 Tunisia 1515 1 12,0
23 USA 1506 -1 -4,0
24 Austria 1502 0 3,0
25 Senegal 1501 0 9,0
26 Romania 1491 1 2,0
27 Ukraine 1490 2 7,0
28 Slovakia 1483 -2 -8,0
29 Venezuela 1479 3 3,0
30 Iran 1478 3 4,0
31 Paraguay 1477 0 0,0
32 Bosnia-Herzegovina 1476 2 8,0
33 Republic of Ireland 1473 -3 -5,0
34 Northern Ireland 1472 -6 -15,0
35 Serbia 1471 0 8,0
36 Iceland 1458 0 -3,0
37 Costa Rica 1452 0 -8,0
38 Turkey 1449 0 -7,0
39 Montenegro 1440 2 -4,0
40 Scotland 1435 -1 -13,0
41 Russia 1433 5 10,0
42 Australia 1432 1 1,0
42 Greece 1432 0 -1,0
44 Nigeria 1431 4 16,0
45 Bulgaria 1428 -1 -2,0
46 Congo DR 1423 -6 -24,0
47 Morocco 1422 -2 -3,0
48 Czech Republic 1420 -1 2,0
48 Norway 1420 4 15,0
50 Japan 1409 4 11,0
51 Cameroon 1408 -1 0,0
52 Ghana 1407 -1 0,0
53 Korea Republic 1401 2 6,0
53 Jamaica 1401 0 0,0
55 Hungary 1400 -6 -9,0
56 Finland 1392 2 14,0
57 Burkina Faso 1390 -1 -1,0
58 Egypt 1378 6 14,0
59 Bolivia 1376 -1 -2,0
60 Albania 1372 -3 -11,0
61 Ecuador 1371 -3 -7,0
62 Honduras 1367 0 -1,0
62 Slovenia 1367 -1 -9,0
64 Cote d'Ivoire 1356 2 5,0
65 Guinea 1354 0 1,0
66 Mali 1352 -3 -13,0
67 Algeria 1339 2 -4,0
68 Cape Verde Islands 1338 -1 -12,0
68 FYR Macedonia 1338 0 -6,0
70 El Salvador 1335 2 3,0
70 Panama 1335 0 -4,0
72 Saudi Arabia 1334 -1 -3,0
73 South Africa 1321 0 -4,0
74 Syria 1320 0 -2,0
75 China PR 1317 1 4,0
76 Canada 1310 3 3,0
77 Zambia 1308 -2 -8,0
78 Belarus 1307 2 3,0
79 Curacao 1306 2 3,0
79 Uganda 1306 4 15,0
81 United Arab Emirates 1305 -4 -3,0
82 Lebanon 1300 -5 -8,0
83 Gabon 1288 4 14,0
84 Luxembourg 1287 -2 -5,0
84 Oman 1287 1 0,0
86 Cyprus 1279 0 -4,0
87 Congo 1277 -3 -12,0
87 Benin 1277 1 4,0
89 Iraq 1270 0 -2,0
90 Kyrgyzstan 1268 1 3,0
91 Israel 1267 3 20,0
92 Georgia 1265 1 11,0
93 Trinidad and Tobago 1263 -3 -6,0
94 Uzbekistan 1254 2 9,0
95 Faroe Islands 1251 -3 -10,0
96 Qatar 1248 -2 1,0
97 India 1245 0 1,0
98 Estonia 1237 0 -3,0
99 Palestine 1233 1 8,0
100 Madagascar 1224 6 19,0
101 Armenia 1222 -1 -3,0
102 Vietnam 1220 0 0,0
103 Haiti 1216 1 4,0
104 Mauritania 1213 -1 -4,0
105 Libya 1210 -6 -16,0
105 Kenya 1210 2 6,0
107 Azerbaijan 1207 1 5,0
108 Niger 1195 -3 -12,0
109 Namibia 1192 7 22,0
110 Korea DPR 1191 -1 -5,0
110 Zimbabwe 1191 7 24,0
112 Jordan 1189 -2 0,0
113 Central African Republic 1182 -2 -5,0
113 Bahrain 1182 -1 1,0
115 Sierra Leone 1172 -1 0,0
116 Philippines 1171 -2 -1,0
117 Kazakhstan 1166 1 6,0
118 Tajikistan 1161 2 5,0
119 New Zealand 1157 0 0,0
119 Guinea-Bissau 1157 2 8,0
121 Thailand 1154 1 10,0
122 Mozambique 1151 -9 -24,0
123 Togo 1144 0 5,0
124 Chinese Taipei 1139 -1 0,0
125 Malawi 1129 0 0,0
126 Antigua and Barbuda 1126 1 4,0
127 Nicaragua 1125 1 4,0
128 Turkmenistan 1120 2 0,0
129 Lithuania 1117 -3 -6,0
130 Angola 1113 5 5,0
131 Yemen 1112 2 0,0
132 Latvia 1111 -1 -5,0
133 St. Kitts and Nevis 1109 1 0,0
133 Andorra 1109 -5 -12,0
135 Sudan 1105 -3 -9,0
136 Tanzania 1101 4 12,0
137 Kosovo 1099 1 7,0
138 Rwanda 1092 -1 -1,0
139 Swaziland 1088 -3 -13,0
140 Botswana 1081 2 4,0
141 Myanmar 1080 -3 -12,0
142 Burundi 1074 6 13,0
143 Solomon Islands 1073 1 0,0
144 Hong Kong 1071 -1 -5,0
145 Afghanistan 1068 1 0,0
146 Equatorial Guinea 1067 -5 -19,0
147 Guatemala 1064 0 0,0
148 Comoros 1062 1 2,0
149 Lesotho 1055 -4 -15,0
150 Ethiopia 1054 -1 -6,0
151 Maldives 1049 0 0,0
152 Dominican Republic 1045 0 5,0
153 Suriname 1040 0 5,0
154 Liberia 1035 1 12,0
155 New Caledonia 1032 -1 0,0
156 Mauritius 1022 0 0,0
157 Kuwait 1020 2 6,0
157 Tahiti 1020 0 0,0
159 South Sudan 1005 -1 -14,0
160 Indonesia 1004 4 7,0
161 Nepal 1001 -1 -3,0
162 Vanuatu 1000 1 0,0
162 Barbados 1000 0 -3,0
164 Belize 995 -4 -9,0
165 Singapore 991 1 9,0
166 Papua New Guinea 984 -1 0,0
167 Fiji 981 1 0,0
168 St. Lucia 977 -2 -5,0
169 Malaysia 974 2 2,0
170 Cambodia 973 -1 -6,0
171 Moldova 969 2 11,0
172 Grenada 968 -2 -8,0
173 Gambia 967 -2 -5,0
174 Chad 956 0 0,0
175 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 955 0 0,0
175 Puerto Rico 955 0 0,0
177 Cuba 954 2 8,0
178 Dominica 950 -1 -3,0
179 Guyana 943 3 6,0
180 Bermuda 940 1 0,0
181 Laos 937 -2 -9,0
182 Liechtenstein 936 -4 -11,0
183 Malta 927 0 -1,0
184 Macau 925 0 0,0
185 Aruba 924 0 0,0
186 Mongolia 923 0 1,0
187 Sao Tomé e Príncipe 920 0 0,0
188 Bhutan 917 0 0,0
188 Seychelles 917 1 4,0
190 Gibraltar 911 8 20,0
191 Timor-Leste 910 -1 1,0
192 American Samoa 908 -1 0,0
192 Cook Islands 908 -1 0,0
194 Guam 907 -1 0,0
194 Bangladesh 907 -1 0,0
196 Brunei Darussalam 903 -1 0,0
197 Samoa 896 -1 0,0
197 Djibouti 896 -1 0,0
199 Pakistan 890 0 0,0
200 US Virgin Islands 887 1 -2,0
201 Sri Lanka 886 -2 -4,0
202 Montserrat 879 3 9,0
203 Cayman Islands 873 -1 -5,0
204 Tonga 868 2 0,0
204 Eritrea 868 2 0,0
204 Somalia 868 2 0,0
207 British Virgin Islands 867 -4 -5,0
208 Anguilla 864 -2 -4,0
209 San Marino 862 -5 -9,0
210 Bahamas 858 0 -4,0
211 Turks and Caicos Islands 855 -1 -7,0

About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

12 comments:

  1. I don't understand the criticism of the new system with respect of it being too slow to react. That's a decent amount of movement for low-weighted games like the Nations League and friendlies. It wouldn't make much sense that a team that did well at the World Cup loses their ground quickly because of a couple of bad results in relatively unimportant games. We'll see much more volatilities when the qualifiers start. So far, so good.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The problem is not the present, now the intervals between teams were artificially reduced so it seems the system moves decently. But in the future, with this formula, a balance will be reached so the first team in the ranking should have about 2100-2200 points while the last teams will have about 600-550 (in about 12-14 years I think). In a system that reached the expected balance, the ipotetical We of the last team in a match againts the first ranked team should be near to 0 (i.e. 0,0001..), now it is about 0,03. When the balance will be reached actual constants will be too small.
      However we do not know what Fifa will do, it is still possible they consider to examine the constants after every World Cup for a possible review, like they did under the old system for the continental match factor.

      Delete
  2. I partially disagree with Jos. I find the ranking too slow-moving as it is right now. It will get worse over time, true, but it's already bad.

    As for nogomet's points, Nations League might be little more than glorified friendlies for League A nations but it's the real thing lower down the ladder. It's arguably more important than the regular qualifiers for League D nations.

    I care very little about what happens at the top of the table. The perennial powerhouses are always up there somewhere as they deserve to be. Whether a particular powerhouse is 3rd or 7th in a particular month is inconsequential because they are pot 1 in every possible seeding anyway. If the top of the crop wanted the League A to have a friendly status or not count at all towards the ranking, guess what, I'd be fine with that. Just please give the rest of us a chance to climb among our peers when we deserve it.

    Someone climbing eight places in a month may look impressive until you remember that: a) there are only five international match windows per year where that sort of a gain is remotely possible, b) there are 211 teams on the table so making any noticeable climb in 8-place steps takes literally years of overperforming, c) the biggest climber Gibraltar didn't actually gain a single placing within its own confederation.

    Gibraltar needs a win and a draw in November at least just to have a chance to pass Malta who haven't won a competitive match since 2013. The 50th place of UEFA is 188 points away which translates into 10 or 11 competitive wins. Gibraltar might just about reach the likes of Latvia and Andorra and breach the top 50 in UEFA if they win their EURO qualifying group.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'll go on a bit. In this match window, 123 teams played at least one competitive match. Of them...

      * 1 (Mozambique) lost four places in their respective confederation ranking,
      * 5 (Northern Ireland, Mali, Madagascar, Namibia and Zimbabwe) lost or gained three places in their respective confederation ranking,
      * 117 (95 %) stayed within two places of where they were.

      There's also a funny article on the FIFA site on Kosovo targeting top 100 in "a few months".

      https://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/news/y=2018/m=10/news=kosovo-planning-for-bright-future.html

      It's not possible for them to get there before next autumn, and even then it's unlikely. Imagine if the head coach's performance is evaluated based on a target that's mathematically unachievable.

      Delete
    2. Nations League games have a lower weighting than qualifiers. They may subjectively mean more for European minnows, but that doesn't change the fact that this competition is valued as less important by FIFA. If Gibraltar continue beating other minnows in the qualifiers, they'll get more points. But I don't see why they should suddenly climb 50 or more places just because they beat the likes of Liechtenstein and Armenia.

      Delete
    3. BTW, I checked how Gibraltar's October results were reflected in eloratings.net's rankings, arguably the best ranking system there is, and guess what? Gibraltar moved only 6 positions after the two wins, less than in FIFA rankings!

      Delete
    4. In my criticism of the FIFA ranking, I didn't advocate any particular alternative to it. Eloratings.net is better than the FIFA version but is has its own set of issues. Case Gibraltar exemplifies one.

      Any Elo model will have troubles accurately assessing a team that loses 90+ % of their competitive games. An occasional success is just enough to offset the 20+ defeats before it which is what happened to Gibraltar now. But if they continue their hot streak (very unlikely, I know), they will have an easier time gaining ground on eloratings.net than in FIFA's version.

      FIFA doesn't have the same excuse for Gibraltar gaining nothing for their two wins, however, because the FIFA ranking has only used an Elo model for a very short while. The gaps are far closer to the artificially low values FIFA chose at the start than the kind of gaps the model will produce over time.

      One more thing, Gibraltar won both their October games by the smallest possible margin. They would have gained more points on eloratings.net with larger wins. FIFA lacks this possibility.

      Delete
    5. This is the list of teams that gained or lost more than two places within their confederation at eloratings.net in the October match window.

      +6 places: Madagascar
      +5 places: Guinea-Bissau, Angola
      +4 places: Finland, Israel, Uganda, Malawi
      +3 places: Serbia, Czech Rep, Georgia, Namibia

      -3 places: Germany, N Ireland, Macedonia, Congo
      -4 places: Lesotho, Belize, Mozambique
      -5 places: Poland, Mauritania
      -6 places: Equatorial Guinea

      That's 21 of the 123 teams that played a competitive match, as compared to 6/123 at FIFA.

      Delete
  3. Most importantly ...

    Pots for 2022 World Cup European qualifiers:

    1 - Belgium, France, Croatia, England, Portugal, Switzerland, Spain, Denmark, Germany, Netherlands
    2 - Sweden, Wales, Italy, Poland, Austria, Romania, Ukraine, Slovakia, Bosnia, Ireland
    3 - Northern Ireland, Serbia, Iceland, Turkey, Montenegro, Scotland, Russia, Greece, Bulgaria, Czech Republic
    4 - Norway, Hungary, Finland, Albania, Slovenia, Macedonia, Belarus, Luxembourg, Cyprus, Israel
    5 - Georgia, Faroe Islands, Estonia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Lithuania, Latvia, Andorra, Kosovo
    6 - Moldova, Liechtenstein, Malta, Gibraltar, San Marino

    One to two Nations League games left for each team (plus two more for the finalists) and two to four Euro qualifiers per team before the draw.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Wait - what? If Gibraltar WINS its Euro 2020 qualifying group, it will only climb from 54th to 50th out of 55 European nations?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thereabouts. Gibraltar could gain 24 points for winning their last two Nations League games and 220 for winning every game in the regular qualifiers if they draw the toughest possible group (as per the FIFA ranking): Belgium, Croatia, Austria, Romania and Latvia. I've calculated points transfers as if the gap between Gibraltar and each of their opponents was what it is now. This slightly overestimates Gibraltar's potential gains; in reality, they'd see diminishing returns, but that's not important in a ballpark estimate.

      911 + 24 + 220 = 1155. Right now, Kazakhstan (46th in UEFA) is at 1166 points, Lithuania (47th) at 1117, Latvia (48th) at 1111, Andorra (49th) at 1109 and Kosovo (50th) at 1099.

      Of course, it's possible to win a group without winning every game in it. If Gibraltar's record in the next 12 matches were something like 8-2-2 rather than 12-0-0, they would be below 1100 points in November 2019.

      Delete
    2. Of course, no one really expects from Gibraltar to win its group. But Kosovo has much more potential. Probably it won't win its group either, but it's capable of playing an important role in it. And it's currently ranked 50th in Europe, just behind Andorra. Imagine how long it will take the team to climb to a position correspending to its actual strength.

      And what if a really strong new team joined UEFA, say Catalonia or something? It would have to start gaining points from scratch, and would spend years and years performing in pace with the powerhouses while being ranked alongside the minnows, slowly climbing towards the middle-class teams.

      Delete