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Sunday, October 21, 2018

2022 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations (20 october 2018)

Matchdays 3 and 4 in the UEFA Nations League 2018/2019 are played. Below the current probabilities (in %) for each team to end in each pot are presented, generated over 10.000 simulations. Teams are ordered by their average pot position.

The July 2019 ranking will probably be used to determine the seeding for the World Cup 2022 European qualification draw.



The qualification format is not yet known in detail. Current practice is to form groups from which the group-winners qualify and a certain amount of runners-up play each other in play-offs for the remaining berths. 

Now with the introduction of the Nations League this format could well change and f.i. the non-qualified league A (and B) top dogs could be qualified (maybe via play-offs) instead of group runners-up.

As long as the new qualification format is unknown I will stick to the current format with a draw from 5 pots of 9 and 1 pot of 10 teams.

Furthermore, in these simulations the first 4 matchdays of EURO 2020 qualifying (to be played in March and June 2019) are not incorporated because their match schedule is not known yet. 

Earlier simulation results: from before the start of the UNL and after MD2 of UNL.

team         pot 1   pot 2   pot 3   pot 4   pot 5   pot 6
France 100,00 0 0 0 0 0
Belgium 100,00 0 0 0 0 0
Croatia 100,00 0 0 0 0 0
England 100,00 0 0 0 0 0
Portugal 100,00 0 0 0 0 0
Switzerland 100,00 0 0 0 0 0
Spain 99,98 0,02 0 0 0 0
Denmark 99,98 0,02 0 0 0 0
Germany 67,17 32,83 0 0 0 0
----------------------------------------
Netherlands 20,95 79,05 0 0 0 0
Sweden 10,25 89,75 0 0 0 0
Italy 1,49 98,51 0 0 0 0
Wales 0,18 99,82 0 0 0 0
Poland 0 100,00 0 0 0 0
Austria 0 99,89 0,11 0 0 0
Romania 0 92,57 7,43 0 0 0
Ukraine 0 87,87 12,13 0 0 0
Slovakia 0 66,67 33,33 0 0 0
----------------------------------------
Serbia 0 19,12 80,88 0 0 0
Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 12,81 87,19 0 0 0
Republic of Ireland 0 10,60 89,40 0 0 0
Northern Ireland 0 10,43 89,57 0 0 0
Iceland 0 0,04 99,96 0 0 0
Turkey 0 0 99,22 0,78 0 0
Montenegro 0 0 77,46 22,54 0 0
Scotland 0 0 65,83 34,17 0 0
Greece 0 0 63,47 36,53 0 0
----------------------------------------
Bulgaria 0 0 42,82 57,18 0 0
Russia 0 0 38,70 61,30 0 0
Czech Republic 0 0 7,43 92,57 0 0
Norway 0 0 5,07 94,93 0 0
Hungary 0 0 0 100,00 0 0
Albania 0 0 0 100,00 0 0
Finland 0 0 0 100,00 0 0
Slovenia 0 0 0 100,00 0 0
FYR Macedonia 0 0 0 99,90 0,10 0
----------------------------------------
Belarus 0 0 0 0,10 99,90 0
Israel 0 0 0 0 100,00 0
Estonia 0 0 0 0 100,00 0
Cyprus 0 0 0 0 100,00 0
Georgia 0 0 0 0 100,00 0
Luxembourg 0 0 0 0 100,00 0
Faroe Islands 0 0 0 0 100,00 0
Armenia 0 0 0 0 100,00 0
Azerbaijan 0 0 0 0 100,00 0
----------------------------------------
Kazakhstan 0 0 0 0 0 100,00
Lithuania 0 0 0 0 0 100,00
Latvia 0 0 0 0 0 100,00
Andorra 0 0 0 0 0 100,00
Moldova 0 0 0 0 0 100,00
San Marino 0 0 0 0 0 100,00
Kosovo 0 0 0 0 0 100,00
Malta 0 0 0 0 0 100,00
Liechtenstein 0 0 0 0 0 100,00
Gibraltar 0 0 0 0 0 100,00

About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

12 comments:

  1. Would it be possible to see the simulations for pots of ten? Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sure. Teams sorted on average pot.

      France - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
      Belgium - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
      Switzerland - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
      Portugal - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
      Spain - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
      England - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
      Croatia - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
      Denmark - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
      Germany - 87,37% - 12,63% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
      Sweden - 52,00% - 48,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
      Netherlands - 44,10% - 55,90% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
      Italy - 8,36% - 91,64% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
      Wales - 8,17% - 91,83% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
      Poland - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
      Austria - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
      Ukraine - 0,00% - 99,00% - 1,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
      Romania - 0,00% - 98,58% - 1,42% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
      Slovakia - 0,00% - 89,77% - 10,23% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
      Serbia - 0,00% - 72,25% - 27,75% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
      Bosnia-Herzegovina - 0,00% - 49,71% - 50,29% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
      Northern Ireland - 0,00% - 46,02% - 53,98% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
      Republic of Ireland - 0,00% - 43,95% - 56,05% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
      Iceland - 0,00% - 0,72% - 99,28% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
      Turkey - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
      Montenegro - 0,00% - 0,00% - 99,67% - 0,33% - 0,00% - 0,00%
      Russia - 0,00% - 0,00% - 97,21% - 2,79% - 0,00% - 0,00%
      Scotland - 0,00% - 0,00% - 96,74% - 3,26% - 0,00% - 0,00%
      Greece - 0,00% - 0,00% - 96,20% - 3,80% - 0,00% - 0,00%
      Bulgaria - 0,00% - 0,00% - 93,76% - 6,24% - 0,00% - 0,00%
      Czech Republic - 0,00% - 0,00% - 68,96% - 31,04% - 0,00% - 0,00%
      Norway - 0,00% - 0,00% - 45,31% - 54,69% - 0,00% - 0,00%
      Hungary - 0,00% - 0,00% - 2,15% - 97,85% - 0,00% - 0,00%
      Albania - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
      Finland - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
      Slovenia - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
      Belarus - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
      FYR Macedonia - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
      Luxembourg - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 96,07% - 3,93% - 0,00%
      Cyprus - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 93,13% - 6,87% - 0,00%
      Georgia - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 67,49% - 32,51% - 0,00%
      Israel - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 43,31% - 56,69% - 0,00%
      Estonia - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00%
      Lithuania - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00%
      Kazakhstan - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00%
      Andorra - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00%
      Latvia - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00%
      Azerbaijan - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00%
      Kosovo - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00%
      Faroe Islands - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00%
      Armenia - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00%
      Moldova - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00%
      San Marino - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00%
      Malta - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00%
      Liechtenstein - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00%
      Gibraltar - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00%

      Delete
    2. Sorry, should have displayed pot-seperation lines after Sweden, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Czech Republic, Georgia and Armenia.

      Delete
  2. Thank you Ed for your great efforts. Is it possible to have the updated 2022 FIFA World Cup seeding (Afc)?

    ReplyDelete
  3. I was doing some calculations and it appears to me that groups of 7 or 8 in Europe are a mathematical impossibility.

    The FIFA dates of September, October, and November 2020 will be used for the next UEFA Nations League. The March 2021 dates will see the second UEFA Nations League finals.

    That leaves only five double-headers (10 games) before the final World Cup draw (April 2022). [So no play-offs?]

    After that there will be a long FIFA date for June (four games) and a double-header in September before the World Cup, and it looks to me UEFA will have to use these six games for the third Nations League because after the World Cup, there will be only six double-headers to be used for Euro 2024 qualifying.

    To recap:

    September 2020 - Second UEFA Nations League
    October 2020 - Second UEFA Nations League
    November 2020 - Second UEFA Nations League
    March 2021 - Second UEFA Nations League (play-offs)

    June 2021 - World Cup European qualifiers
    September 2021 - World Cup European qualifiers
    October 2021 - World Cup European qualifiers
    November 2021 - World Cup European qualifiers
    March 2022 - World Cup European qualifiers

    April 2022 - Final 2022 World Cup draw

    June 2022 - Third UEFA Nations League (double double-header)
    September 2022 - Third UEFA Nations League

    October 2022 - no games
    November / December 2022 - 2022 World Cup

    March 2023 - Euro 2024 qualifiers
    June 2023 - Euro 2024 qualifiers
    September 2023 - Euro 2024 qualifiers
    October 2023 - Euro 2024 qualifiers
    November 2023 - Euro 2024 qualifiers
    March 2024 - Euro 2024 qualifiers (play-offs)

    June 2024 - Euro 2024 finals

    ReplyDelete
  4. Forza Azurri. I think it will be 10 groups. 10 winners qualifies. Best 2nd place and 2 from Nations League A and B.

    The Nations League finals are actually in June, not March. I guess in 2021 they might do in July as there will be no more confederations cup.

    That led to 2 qualifying matches in March 2021, June 2021, September 2022, October 2021, November 2021.

    With the 2 nations league play off teams in March 2022.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Hi Ed! Kristoffer from Sweden here. Does Sweden have any chance to enter group A in Uefa WC 2022 qualifiers, after the dutchs win against France and Swedens away victory in Turkey? Many thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  6. Seeding pots for the draw of the UEFA qualification WC 2022 after UNL MD5 (10.000 simulations). Still without 4 MDs of EURO 2020q.
    Pots of 9 teams. Teams sorted on average pot.

    France - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Belgium - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Croatia - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    England - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Portugal - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Switzerland - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Denmark - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Spain - 99,90% - 0,10% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Germany - 58,71% - 41,29% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    ----------------------------------------------------------
    Netherlands - 32,12% - 67,88% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Sweden - 9,27% - 90,73% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Italy - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Wales - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Poland - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Austria - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Romania - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Slovakia - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Ukraine - 0,00% - 56,80% - 43,20% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    ----------------------------------------------------------
    Serbia - 0,00% - 28,47% - 71,53% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Bosnia-Herzegovina - 0,00% - 6,99% - 93,01% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Republic of Ireland - 0,00% - 5,73% - 94,27% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Northern Ireland - 0,00% - 2,01% - 97,99% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Iceland - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Turkey - 0,00% - 0,00% - 98,30% - 1,70% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Scotland - 0,00% - 0,00% - 92,82% - 7,18% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Greece - 0,00% - 0,00% - 88,53% - 11,47% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Montenegro - 0,00% - 0,00% - 57,00% - 43,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    ----------------------------------------------------------
    Czech Republic - 0,00% - 0,00% - 25,44% - 74,56% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Russia - 0,00% - 0,00% - 21,99% - 78,01% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Bulgaria - 0,00% - 0,00% - 15,92% - 84,08% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Norway - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Hungary - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Albania - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Finland - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Slovenia - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    FYR Macedonia - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    ----------------------------------------------------------
    Belarus - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00%
    Israel - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00%
    Estonia - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00%
    Cyprus - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00%
    Georgia - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00%
    Luxembourg - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00%
    Faroe Islands - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00%
    Armenia - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00%
    Azerbaijan - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00%
    ----------------------------------------------------------
    Kazakhstan - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00%
    Lithuania - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00%
    Latvia - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00%
    Andorra - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00%
    Moldova - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00%
    San Marino - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00%
    Kosovo - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00%
    Malta - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00%
    Liechtenstein - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00%
    Gibraltar - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00%

    ReplyDelete
  7. Seeding pots for the draw of the UEFA qualification WC 2022 after UNL MD5 (10.000 simulations). Still without 4 MDs of EURO 2020q.
    Pots of 10 teams. Teams sorted on average pot.

    France - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Belgium - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Croatia - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    England - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Portugal - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Switzerland - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Denmark - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Spain - 99,97% - 0,03% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Germany - 77,76% - 22,24% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Sweden - 75,13% - 24,87% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    ----------------------------------------------------------
    Netherlands - 47,14% - 52,86% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Italy - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Wales - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Poland - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Austria - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Romania - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Slovakia - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Ukraine - 0,00% - 93,95% - 6,05% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Serbia - 0,00% - 92,16% - 7,84% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Northern Ireland - 0,00% - 49,37% - 50,63% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    ----------------------------------------------------------
    Bosnia-Herzegovina - 0,00% - 37,95% - 62,05% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Republic of Ireland - 0,00% - 26,57% - 73,43% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Iceland - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Turkey - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Montenegro - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Scotland - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Greece - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Bulgaria - 0,00% - 0,00% - 90,38% - 9,62% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Czech Republic - 0,00% - 0,00% - 87,91% - 12,09% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Russia - 0,00% - 0,00% - 87,45% - 12,55% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    ----------------------------------------------------------
    Norway - 0,00% - 0,00% - 34,26% - 65,74% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Hungary - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Albania - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Finland - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Slovenia - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    FYR Macedonia - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Belarus - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Cyprus - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00% - 0,00%
    Luxembourg - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 91,19% - 8,81% - 0,00%
    Georgia - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 55,07% - 44,93% - 0,00%
    ----------------------------------------------------------
    Israel - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 53,74% - 46,26% - 0,00%
    Estonia - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00%
    Faroe Islands - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00%
    Armenia - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00%
    Azerbaijan - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00%
    Kazakhstan - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00%
    Lithuania - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00%
    Latvia - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00%
    Andorra - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00%
    Kosovo - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00% - 0,00%
    ----------------------------------------------------------
    Moldova - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00%
    San Marino - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00%
    Malta - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00%
    Liechtenstein - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00%
    Gibraltar - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 0,00% - 100,00%

    ReplyDelete
  8. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_(UEFA) How will they do it? It's impossible to avoid drawing the Final 4 of next Nations League into 6-team groups? https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/dcunited/uefa-plots-2022-world-cup-qualifying-path-via-nations-league/2019/06/04/110ec68c-86f3-11e9-9d73-e2ba6bbf1b9b_story.html?utm_term=.71e02d22347f And how will they make home-and-away double stage play-offs if 4 matchdays are needed for it? Maybe two legs are Wikipedia author's mistake.

    ReplyDelete
  9. September, October, November 2020 - Nations League
    December 2020 - WC qualifying draw with 4 NL finalists drawn in groups of 5
    March 2021 - first doubleheader for WC qualifying
    June 2021 - second doubleheader for WC qualifying plus NL finals
    September, October, November 2021 - last three doubleheaders for WC qualifying
    March 2022 - first round (home and away) European play-offs
    June 2022 - second round (home and away) European play-offs

    In theory FIFA is supposed to have the final draw in April but they can easily move it to June (5 months before the WC) or leave three blank spots for European teams.

    The whole calendar is complicated by the introduction by FIFA of the new Club World Cup in June-July 2021. Also, it is not clear to me what happens to the next edition of the Nations League with such a short calendar between the 2022 WC and Euro 2024.

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