Latest updates

Check the Important info page for latest updates! (24 October 2018)
Twitter

Thursday, March 28, 2019

2020 UEFA EURO qualification: 10000 simulations (28 March 2019)

The first two matchdays in qualifying for EURO 2020 were played last week. See here for more information on the qualification process and the simulation results before the first qualifier was played.

FIFA ranking: April 2019 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking next Thursday April 4th. 

I've assumed that of all NT-matches with two FIFA-members in it and played between February 4th and March 31st the following friendlies will be excluded:

2019-02-25 Cuba - Bermuda 2:2 (closed door match)
2019-03-10 Mozambique  - Swatini 1:1
2019-03-16 Suriname - Guyana 3:1
2019-03-25 Kuwait - Nepal 1:0
2019-03-26 Ghana - Mauritania 3:1
2019-03-26 Nicaragua - Guatemala 0:1

See here for 'my inclusion rules'. We will see next Thursday how many corrections on these assumptions I need :)

Sunday, March 10, 2019

FIFA ranking: April 2019 preview results

Here are the scheduled matches counting for the FIFA April 2019 ranking with FIFA's Expected Home Win Probability (We) in % and the points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team. In cases where matches can go to PSO, also the points exchanged when the home team wins (PSO-W) or loses (PSO-L) the penalty shoot-out are given.

The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my described inclusion-method.

FIFA ranking: April 2019 preview

Here are the minimum and maximum points for each team in the April 2019 ranking. FIFA will publish the ranking on April 4th.

Also check the probable April ranking to find out about the inclusion-method I used for this preview.

FIFA ranking: April 2019 probable results

Here are the probable results of all currently scheduled matches until April 4th, used to calculate the April 2019 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. 
The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my described inclusion-method. Also the Expected Home Win Probability (We) according to elo is given for each match in %.

FIFA ranking: April 2019 probable ranking

Here is the probable April 2019 ranking, to be published on April 4th. 

Which matches to include, that's the question. FIFA no longer maintains their fixture-list on their site. They direct you to the live scores section on their app for that. After a thorough examination of their whole app I found a selection of NT-tournaments match results.