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Monday, June 11, 2018

FIFA ranking: July 2018 probable ranking (new method)

FIFA has adopted a new calculation method for their ranking. It will be used for the very next ranking, the first ranking after the World Cup, to be published on July 19th.

I have made a probable July 2018 ranking, applying the new calculation method for all matches played from June 4th onwards. See the probable results for the predicted results used. 

Saturday, June 9, 2018

FIFA ranking: July 2018 probable results

Here are the predicted results of all currently scheduled matches and the prediction of the matches in the knock-out phase of the World Cup, used to calculate the July 2018 probable ranking. The results are generated using Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team ! It's a mistake !" please take note that these are predictions of scheduled matches. And no, they don't constitute my personal opinion about the matches. Just mathematics doing the job :)

FIFA ranking: July 2018 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on July 19th.

Another few preparatory friendlies this week and then from Thursday the main course: the World Cup in Russia.

Also check the probable July ranking.

Most points gained (worst case scenario)
68 - Paraguay
58 - Kyrgyzstan
57 - Norway

Most points lost (best case scenario)

-217 - Chile
-158 - Netherlands
-134 - El Salvador

FIFA ranking: July 2018 probable ranking

FIFA will publish the ranking on July 19th.

See the results of all matches that contribute to this probable July 2018 ranking.

For minimum/maximum points see the preview.


Monday, June 4, 2018

World Cup 2018 simulations (June 2018)

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the complete World Cup tournament -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.

FIFA ranking: June 2018 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking this Thursday June 7th. 

Best movers:

21 - Azerbaijan
14 - Papua New Guinea
13 - El Salvador, New Zealand

Worst movers:

-18 - Guyana

-17 - Guinea-Bissau, Kyrgyzstan