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Friday, December 20, 2013

FIFA Ranking: January 2014 probable ranking

Next update: 10 January 2014.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings.

21/Dec Qatar - Bahrain 1 (Friendly)
25/Dec Oman - Bahrain 1 (Friendly)
25/Dec Qatar - Palestine 1 (Friendly)
26/Dec Kuwait - Lebanon 1 (Friendly)
28/Dec Bahrain - Iraq X (Friendly)

FIFA Ranking: January 2014 preview

Next update: 10 January 2014.

Only the 2014 WAFF Championship and 2 pre-CHAN friendlies. I expect FIFA to include all 2014 CHAN matches in the February ranking (that would be the logical thing to do).

Most points gained (worst case scenario):

96 - Saudi Arabia
57 - Tunisia
53 - Egypt
41 - United Arab Emirates
31 - South Africa
28 - Cape Verde Islands
20 - Uzbekistan
19 - Ghana
17 - Panama
17 - El Salvador

Friday, December 13, 2013

World Cup draw: Seeding all the teams

Possible? Yes.

Complicated? Yes.

Pot 1: Brazil, Spain, Germany, Argentina, Colombia, Belgium, Uruguay, Switzerland
Pot 2: Netherlands, Italy, England, Chile, USA, Portugal, Greece, Bosnia-Herzegovina
Pot 3: Côte d'Ivoire, Croatia, Russia, France, Ecuador, Ghana, Mexico, Costa Rica
Pot 4: Algeria, Nigeria, Honduras, Japan, Iran, Korea Republic, Australia, Cameroon

Pot 1: draw all the seeds and assign them to groups

FIFA Ranking: Tweaking handling of wins

Should FIFA look into changing the handling of wins (friendly or competitive)?

As you might know, the Netherlands and Italy lost out on seeded status because they played (and won) against low ranked team. What will happen now? Will the fees required to play against top team rise because it could affect their ranking? Here's a possible solution: include result of wins in the calculation of the ranking only if it improves the average of the time frame that match belongs to.

FIFA Ranking: December 2013 final preview

Spain will again be Team of the Year (as it finished top of the pile).

Ukraine will be Mover of the Year (it gained 312 points). Armenia (259) and USA (237) will be 2nd and 3rd.

Burkina Faso will overtake Norway for the first time ever.
Jordan will overtake the Republic of Ireland for the first time ever.
Guam will overtake Maldives, Bangladesh and Nepal for the first time ever.

Philippines will overtake Korea DPR for the first time since March 2000.
Myanmar will overtake Korea DPR for the first time since July 2001.

Friday, December 6, 2013

UEFA EURO 2016 qualifying format officially confirmed

Not by UEFA, but by the Romanian FA.

Original article in Romanian. Main points below.

Assuming all 53 FAs will participate - there will be 8 groups of 6 teams and one of 5 teams.

The teams will be split in 6 pots according to the UEFA coefficient. This list doesn't appear in the FRF article, is based on my calculations.

2018 FIFA World Cup qualifying draw seeding for UEFA (6 December 2013)

Assumptions:

- UEFA will keep the current qualifying system
- FIFA will use the FIFA ranking to seed the teams
- UEFA will choose the July 2015 ranking for seeding

2018 FIFA World Cup qualifying draw seeding for CONCACAF (6 December 2013)

Assumptions:

- CONCACAF will keep the current qualifying system
- FIFA will use the FIFA ranking to seed the teams
- CONCACAF will choose the March 2015 ranking for seeding

2018 FIFA World Cup qualifying draw seeding for CAF (6 December 2013)

Assumptions:

- CAF will keep the current qualifying system
- FIFA will use the FIFA ranking to seed the teams
- CAF will choose the July 2015 ranking for seeding


2018 FIFA World Cup qualifying draw seeding for AFC (6 December 2013)

Next update: Spring 2013

Assumptions:

- AFC will keep the current qualifying system
- FIFA will use the FIFA ranking to seed the teams
- AFC will choose the July 2015 ranking for seeding

Friday, November 29, 2013

2014 FIFA World Cup draw generator

Here's an e-mail I've got from Daniel Nordquist:

I love the expectation that always comes when the draws for the World Cup or UEFA Championship are closing up. I have made a simple page on my domain that randomizes the draw and I am willing to share this opportunity to more people to try it out.
You can test it at: nurp.se


Enjoy!

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

FIFA Ranking: December 2013 probable ranking

Next update: 13 December 2013. 

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

Only the 2013 CECAFA Cup and three friendlies set to take place before the deadline for the December ranking. Because of this the top 63 is already set.

We can already look at best/worst movers in the top 50:

Best movers in the top 50:

12 - Iran
2 - Bosnia-Herzegovina
1 - Japan, Tunisia, Iceland and Cameroon

Worst movers in the top 50:

-53 - Cuba
-3 - Egypt
-1 - France, Mexico, Scotland, Nigeria, Panama, Honduras, Mali, Turkey, Hungary, Armenia and Venezuela

FIFA Ranking: December 2013 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the December 2013 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins


FIFA Ranking: December 2013 preview

Next update: 13 December 2013.

Only the 2013 CECAFA Cup and three friendlies set to take place before the deadline for the December ranking.

Most points gained (worst case scenario):

70 - Iran
42 - Liberia
39 - Saudi Arabia
35 - Vietnam
30 - Guam
26 - Hong Kong
26 - Seychelles
25 - Jordan
24 - Togo
24 - Laos

Friday, November 22, 2013

FIFA Ranking: November 2013 final preview

One match left: a friendly between Singapore and Cambodia.

Austria will be ranked above Norway (for the first time ever), Paraguay (June 1999) and Japan (May 2001).

Cuba will be ranked above Paraguay and Tunisia for the first time ever.

Libya will be ranked above the Republic of Ireland for the first time ever.

Canada will be ranked below Antigua and Barbuda, and Burundi for the first time ever.

Myanmar will be ranked above Thailand for the first time ever.

Ukraine will be ranked above Russia for the first time since September 2007.

Iran will be ranked above Paraguay for the first time since May 2006 and above Japan (May 2007).

EURO 2016 qualifying draw seeding (22 November 2013)

This is the final ranking that will be used for the EURO 2016 qualifying draw. It will take place in Nice on 23 February 2014.

The coefficients for the EURO 2016 qualifying draw will take into account results from:

2010 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2012 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2014 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting

Click here for more info on the coefficient system.

France will host the final tournament.

Friday, November 1, 2013

2018 FIFA World Cup qualifying draw seeding for UEFA (1 November 2013)

Assumptions:

- UEFA will keep the current qualifying system
- FIFA will use the FIFA ranking to seed the teams
- UEFA will choose the July 2015 ranking for seeding

2018 FIFA World Cup qualifying draw seeding for CONCACAF (1 November 2013)

Assumptions:

- CONCACAF will keep the current qualifying system
- FIFA will use the FIFA ranking to seed the teams
- CONCACAF will choose the March 2015 ranking for seeding

2018 FIFA World Cup qualifying draw seeding for CAF (1 November 2013)

Assumptions:

- CAF will keep the current qualifying system
- FIFA will use the FIFA ranking to seed the teams
- CAF will choose the July 2015 ranking for seeding

2018 FIFA World Cup qualifying draw seeding for AFC (1 November 2013)

Assumptions:

- AFC will keep the current qualifying system
- FIFA will use the FIFA ranking to seed the teams
- AFC will choose the July 2015 ranking for seeding

Friday, October 25, 2013

FIFA Ranking: November 2013 probable ranking

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

Based on these probable results:

Mexico, Uruguay, Portugal, France, Greece, Croatia, Nigeria, Côte d'Ivoire, Cameroon, Ghana and Algeria will grab their Brazil tickets.

The pots for the final draw would look like this (France in pot 3 as the worst ranked UEFA team)

Pot 1: Brazil, Spain, Germany, Argentina, Colombia, Belgium, Uruguay, Switzerland
Pot 2: Japan, Australia, Iran, Korea Republic, Costa Rica, USA, Honduras, Mexico
Pot 3: Nigeria, Côte d'Ivoire, Cameroon, Ghana, Algeria, Chile, Ecuador, France
Pot 4: Netherlands, Italy, Russia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, England, Portugal, Greece, Croatia

FIFA Ranking: November 2013 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the November 2013 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

FIFA Ranking: November 2013 preview

Next update: 22 November 2013.

Most points gained (worst case scenario):

149 - Cuba
36 - Cape Verde Islands
35 - Slovenia
34 - Albania
33 - Israel
32 - Hungary
31 - Haiti
29 - Armenia
27 - Congo
26 - Burundi


EURO 2016 qualifying draw seeding (25 October 2013)

Next update: November 2013.

The coefficients for the EURO 2016 qualifying draw will take into account results from:

2010 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2012 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2014 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting

Click here for more info on the coefficient system.

France will host the final tournament.


UEFA considering Nations League competition

In a bid to make international football more attractive, UEFA is a looking at a Nations League competition.

The idea, floated at executive committee meetings that preceded aUefa meeting in Dubrovnik last month, would see Uefa using existing dates for friendlies in the international calendar to launch a new league involving all 54 member nations.

Uefa sources have told the Guardian that the idea was one of several floated at the meeting as part of a discussion about how to improve the attractiveness of international football from 2018 onwards. The Uefa executive committee will now examine the idea in more detail before deciding whether to adopt it.

October 2013 FIFA ranking used for World Cup final draw

Yes, a bit of old news, but I have been really busy both at home and at the office, then had a short vacation.

Hats off to FIFA about announcing this before the last match day. Maybe next time it will be known before the preliminary draw.

Here's the official media release from FIFA.

Regarding the procedure for the Final Draw for the 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil, the seeded teams (Pot 1) will include Brazil and the seven top-ranked teams. The remaining pots will be based on geographic and sports criteria. The FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking of October 2013 (to be released on 17 Oct. 2013) will be used as opposed to the November ranking as the latter would give the teams involved in the upcoming play-off games an unfair advantage.


UEFA Under-21 Championship finals to remain in odd years

UEFA officials can't quite make up their minds about the Under-21 championship.

Initially played in even years, the finals were moved to odd years starting from 2007, "to allow it to step out of the shadow of the UEFA European Football Championship and the FIFA World Cup."

In 2012, they announced it will be switched to even years after 2015 in order "to align the qualifying phase of the competition with that of the national A teams".

However, last month, UEFA approved the member associations' request to maintain the finals in odd years.


About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

Friday, September 20, 2013

FIFA Ranking: October 2013 probable ranking

As already announced by FIFA, the October ranking will be used to seed the European teams in the play-off draw (see the simulations).

The October ranking could also be used to seed the teams in the final World Cup draw (see the simulations).

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

Based on these probable results:

Bulgaria will be the worst runner-up.

FIFA Ranking: October 2013 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the October 2013 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins


FIFA Ranking: October 2013 preview

World Cup qualifying nearing the end - all groups will finish in October.

As already announced by FIFA, the October ranking will be used to seed the European teams in the play-off draw (see the simulations).

The October ranking could also be used to seed the teams in the final World Cup draw (see the simulations).

Most points gained (worst case scenario):

54 - Cuba
52 - Guyana
49 - Dominican Republic
39 - Myanmar
25 - Guinea
25 - Trinidad and Tobago
23 - South Africa
23 - Libya
23 - Philippines
21 - Laos

EURO 2016 qualifying draw seeding (20 September 2013)

Next update: October 2013.

The coefficients for the EURO 2016 qualifying draw will take into account results from:

2010 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2012 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2014 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting

Click here for more info on the coefficient system.

France will host the final tournament.

2015 UEFA Under-21 play-off seeding (20 September 2013)

Next update: October 2013.

The coefficients for the 2015 UEFA European Under-21 Championship playoff draw will take into account results from:

2011 UEFA European Under-21 Championship (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
2013 UEFA European Under-21 Championship (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2015 UEFA European Under-21 Championship (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting

More info about the Under-21 coefficient on UEFA.com (PDF file).

Friday, September 13, 2013

10000 sims on the road to Brazil (13 September 2013)

More info in the first 'Road to Brazil' post.

Here's the outcome:

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding simulations for the European play-offs
2014 FIFA World Cup qualification chances

2016 UEFA EURO 2016 qualifying draw pots simulations
2014 FIFA World Cup final seeding simulations

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

2014 FIFA World Cup final seeding simulations (13 September 2013)

More about the simulations in the second and third paragraphs of the first 'Road to Brazil' post.

Most improved since the 6 September simulations:

46.67% - Uruguay
18.93% - Belgium
17.09% - Italy
7.23% - Switzerland
2.14% - Argentina

2016 UEFA EURO 2016 qualifying draw pots simulations (13 September 2013)

More about the simulations in the second and third paragraphs of the first 'Road to Brazil' post.

I know the EURO 2016 qualifying format will most likely change, but since I already had the code in place, here are the updated simulations.

Pot 6:

100% - Andorra
100% - San Marino
100% - Malta
100% - Faroe Islands
99.99% - Liechtenstein
82.74% - Luxembourg
73.57% - Kazakhstan
43.16% - Cyprus
0.54% - Azerbaijan


2014 FIFA World Cup qualification chances (13 September 2013)

More about the simulations in the second and third paragraphs of the first 'Road to Brazil' post.

Most improved since the 6 September simulations:

49.55% - Uruguay
44.79% - Honduras
22.72% - Sweden
22.05% - Burkina Faso
14.22% - Senegal
10.27% - Cameroon
9.66% - Ethiopia
9.27% - Greece
8.33% - Belgium
7.94% - Jordan

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding simulations for the European play-offs (13 September 2013)

More about the simulations in the second and third paragraphs of the first 'Road to Brazil' post.

The October 2013 FIFA ranking will be used to seed the teams (this has been confirmed by FIFA).

Worst runner-up is most likely to come out of groups B or E.

50.33% - Group B
33.69% - Group E
11.94% - Group D
2.65% - Group A
0.99% - Group H
0.4% - Group C
0% - Group F
0% - Group G
0% - Group I

Friday, September 6, 2013

2014 FIFA World Cup: A look at the CAF play-off pots scenarios


Standings can be found on FIFA.com.

Group A

Ethiopia - Won't be seeded.
Botswana - Won't be seeded.
South Africa - need to win against Botswana and hope Ethiopia don't defeat Central African Republic at a neutral venue.

They will be in the second pot with a total between 528 and 539 (depending on the outcome of their friendly against Zimbabwe).

10000 sims on the road to Brazil (6 September 2013)

More info in the first 'Road to Brazil' post.

Here's the outcome:

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding simulations for the African play-offs
2014 FIFA World Cup seeding simulations for the European play-offs
2014 FIFA World Cup qualification chances
2014 FIFA World Cup final seeding simulations

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

2014 FIFA World Cup final seeding simulations (6 September 2013)

More about the simulations in the second and third paragraphs of the first 'Road to Brazil' post.

Most improved since the 21 June simulations:

11.96% - Switzerland
10.55% - Argentina
6.47% - England
3.32% - Italy
2.34% - USA


2014 FIFA World Cup qualification chances (6 September 2013)

More about the simulations in the second and third paragraphs of the first 'Road to Brazil' post.

Games played on September 6 are not included.

Most improved since the 21 June simulations:

15.39% - South Africa
9.8% - Cameroon
9.21% - Portugal
9% - Cape Verde Islands
4.67% - Panama
3.13% - Uganda

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding simulations for the European play-offs (6 September 2013)

More about the simulations in the second and third paragraphs of the first 'Road to Brazil' post.

The October 2013 FIFA ranking will be used to seed the teams (this has been confirmed by FIFA).

Games played on September 6 are not included.

Worst runner-up is most likely to come out of groups B or E.

38.92% - Group B
37.22% - Group E
8.2% - Group D
7.6% - Group C
3.9% - Group A
2.28% - Group H
1.29% - Group I
0.45% - Group F
0.14% - Group G


2014 FIFA World Cup seeding simulations for the African play-offs (6 September 2013)

More about the simulations in the second and third paragraphs of the first 'Road to Brazil' post.

Games played on September 6 are not included.

Pot 2:

78.22% -Egypt
72.58% -Cameroon
64.29% -Senegal
57.78% -Congo
56.55% -Ethiopia
40.83% -South Africa
35.71% -Uganda
29.62% -Burkina Faso
25.73% -Libya
14.64% -Tunisia
12.19% -Zambia
6.69% -Malawi
2.62% -Botswana
2.55% -Gabon


Friday, August 30, 2013

August 2013: Recommended friendly impact

The best opponent to play against is determined using a combination of Elo ratings and FIFA rankings. Let's look at the August FIFA ranking and we'll see the impact of one extra friendly. The difference in ranking is computed assuming all things remain equal, except the points of the given team.

The most popular opponent for the month of July were Equatorial Guinea and Albania - each of them best opponent for 72 teams.

5 of the top 20 teams (England +11, Uruguay +8, Germany +6, Portugal +5, Mexico +1) would have gained points, but only England would have climbed in the ranking - 2 spots by defeating Albania.

August 2013: FIFA Ranking vs. Elo Ratings

Top 10 differences for countries with a better Elo Rating:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference


Syria 147 82 65
South Sudan 203 139 64
Fiji 185 123 62
Korea DPR 110 58 52
Kuwait 112 72 40
China PR 95 58 37
Gambia 163 128 35
Guinea-Bissau 182 147 35
Vanuatu 178 144 34
Papua New Guinea 197 164 33

Friday, August 23, 2013

FIFA Ranking: September 2013 probable ranking

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

Based on these probable results:

Uzbekistan will advance to the AFC-CONMEBOL World Cup playoff.

The pots for the CAF playoff draw will be:

Pot 1: Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, Algeria, Tunisia
Pot 2: Burkina Faso, Egypt, Cameroon, South Africa, Senegal

Northern Ireland will climb 40 spots, Benin 25, Poland 20.

Suriname will drop 34 spots, Puerto Rico 29, Slovakia 22, Scotland 18.


FIFA Ranking: September 2013 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the September 2013 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

FIFA Ranking: September 2013 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on September 12th.

Very important month for Uzbekistan and Jordan - involved in the AFC World Cup play-off. Also the CAF group stage ends this month and besides the actual qualification, teams will also be interested in their FIFA ranking as it will be used to seed the play-off draw.

Most points gained (worst case scenario):

124 - Northern Ireland
49 - Cuba
35 - Tahiti
32 - Iran
31 - Antigua and Barbuda
25 - St. Vincent and the Grenadines
19 - Panama
18 - Syria
16 - Samoa
15 - Equatorial Guinea

Friday, August 2, 2013

Premier league work permit update (August 2013)

See my previous post about the work permit.

I can't quite explain why the FIFA ranking averages published by the FA are one month behind. When the FA release their next ranking of averages, three countries will break in the top 70.

FIFA Ranking: August 2013 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on August 8th.

Three matches left - all CHAN qualifiers (friendlies for FIFA ranking purposes): Zambia - Botswana, Namibia - Mozambique and Zimbabwe - Mauritius.

This is how the points could change for these 6 teams:

Zambia (L: 538, D: 542, W: 550)
Botswana (L: 339, D: 348, W: 365)
Mozambique (L: 314, D: 319, W: 328)
Zimbabwe (L: 288, D: 292, W: 299)
Namibia (L: 219, D: 226, W: 240)
Mauritius (L: 70, D: 82, W: 106)

In the table below, the values displayed for these 6 teams are the lowest possible, thus even if they lose, their totals won't drop.

Friday, July 26, 2013

2018 FIFA World Cup: 2 years left until the preliminary draw

Next update: July/August 2014.

The preliminary draw for the 2018 FIFA World Cup will take place in Saint Petersburg on either 24 or 25 July 2015.

Assumption: same formats used for the 2014 FIFA World Cup qualifiers.

Based on the 2014 preliminary draw, the FIFA ranking used to seed the teams from AFC, CAF and UEFA will be the July 2015 edition, while for the CONCACAF teams the March 2015 ranking will be used.

This means we already have 25% of the final formula (even more for CONCACAF teams), as the 0.3 time frame closed a couple of days ago. See previous update.

July 2013: Recommended friendly impact

The best opponent to play against is determined using a combination of Elo ratings and FIFA rankings. Let's look at the July FIFA ranking and we'll see the impact of one extra friendly. The difference in ranking is computed assuming all things remain equal, except the points of the given team.

The most popular opponent for the month of June is Central African Republic - the best opponent for no less than 106 teams.

Of the top 20, only Germany, Portugal, Uruguay, England, Russia and Mexico would have gained points. Of these only England would have climbed in the rankings - 2 spots by defeating Denmark. Despite losing 3 points by winning the hypothetical friendly against Croatia, Brazil would have climbed one spot, overtaking their opponents.

Friday, July 19, 2013

FIFA Ranking: August 2013 probable ranking (II)

FIFA will publish the ranking on 8 August.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

At least three teams will improve their best ever ranking:

Bosnia-Herzegovina (13 - 14 in July 2013)
Dominican Republic (at least 89 - 90 in July 2013)
Philippines (141 - 143 in November 2012)

FIFA Ranking: August 2013 probable results (II)

Here are the probable results used for the August 2013 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

FIFA Ranking: August 2013 preview (II)

FIFA will publish the ranking on August 8th.

Most points gained (worst case scenario):

92 - Cameroon
49 - El Salvador
40 - Ecuador
33 - Trinidad and Tobago
33 - Suriname
31 - Lebanon
30 - Botswana
25 - Dominican Republic
24 - Vanuatu
22 - Turkmenistan

July 2013: FIFA Ranking vs. Elo Ratings

Top 10 differences for countries with a better Elo Rating:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference


Fiji 191 122 69
Syria 143 83 60
South Sudan 198 139 59
Korea DPR 112 58 54
Vanuatu 189 144 45
Kuwait 110 72 38
Gambia 164 128 36
Guinea-Bissau 180 147 33
Eritrea 196 164 32
Papua New Guinea 197 165 32

Friday, July 12, 2013

FIFA Ranking: Excel file with FIFA points since March 2009

For all those looking to kick-start their FIFA ranking calculations, Jeroen (one of visitors of this blog) has provided an Excel file with all the FIFA match points since March 2009.

Enjoy!

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

2015 Africa Cup of Nations seeding for the qualifying and final draws

The qualifying draw for the 2015 Africa Cup of Nations (hosted by Morocco) will take place in South Africa in January/February 2014 during the African Nations Championship.

There will be a preliminary round to reduce the field to 48 teams - for this round, the FIFA ranking will be used to seed the teams.

The for group stage draw, the CAF rankings will be used for seeding.

The winner from each of the 12 groups will qualify for a place in the final tournament in Morocco along with the 3 best second placed teams.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding: No official announcement from FIFA

It's amazing what some members of the media will publish or tweet.

On Sunday, I was alerted by Fredrik  of something Vito De Palma (ESPN journalist) wrote on Twitter.

7 Jul
Temas cabezas de serie: FIFA hara una tabla promediando los ultimos 3 Mundiales y 3 años de ranking. Colombia con suerte estara en 3ra urna

Friday, July 5, 2013

2013 CONCACAF Gold Cup simulations

The Gold Cup kicks off in two days.

Compared to the April simulations, USA are now favorites to win the tournament.

Last in group:

80.08% - Belize
53.16% - Martinique
37.05% - Trinidad and Tobago
33.5% - Haiti
29.14% - Canada
19.47% - El Salvador
18.19% - Cuba
13.82% - Panama
9.98% - Honduras
3.88% - Mexico
1.52% - Costa Rica
0.21% - USA

FIFA Ranking: August 2013 probable ranking

FIFA will publish the ranking on 8 August.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

Bosnia-Herzegovina will improve their best ever ranking again. They will be 13th next month.


FIFA Ranking: August 2013 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the August 2013 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

FIFA Ranking: August 2013 preview (I)

FIFA will publish the ranking on August 8th.

It's quite an active month: Gold Cup, COSAFA Cup, CHAN qualifiers and the East Asian Cup.

For this month, I've changed the preview approach. I won't be looking at minimum and maximum points, but at best and worst possible ranking.

Moving up (worst case scenario):

9 - Solomon Islands and Vanuatu
8 - Cameroon
6 - Suriname and Botswana

Update on FIFA's sanctions

FIFA announced sanctions against Ethiopia and Togo. Both will lose their matches (against Botswana and Cameroon respectively) 3 - 0. However, the decisions are not yet final and binding (according to an e-mail from FIFA).

As you can see, the results (Group A and Group I) are not changed yet.

Cameroon also managed to get suspended.

For the July ranking I already used the awarded results, because both Ethiopia and Togo have announced they won't be appealing.

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

Elo Ratings: Brazil dethrone Spain

Spain took hold (again) of the top spot on 3 July 2010, after defeating Paraguay in the quarterfinals of South Africa 2010.

They have remained on top for 45 matches, but on 30 June they've lost not only the final of the Confederations Cup, but also the first place in the Elo Ratings to Brazil.

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

Friday, June 28, 2013

FIFA Ranking: July 2013 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking of 4 July.

Only 4 matches left: the final and 3rd place final of the Confederations Cup, Swaziland - Angola (CHAN qualifier - considered friendly) and Grenada - Dominica (friendly).

This is how the points could change for the 8 teams involved:

Spain (L: 1532, PSO L: 1566, PSO W: 1599, W: 1633)
Italy (L: 1078, PSO L: 1110, PSO W: 1142, W: 1174)
Brazil (L: 1005, PSO L: 1035, PSO W: 1065, W: 1095)
Uruguay (L: 980, PSO L: 1016, PSO W: 1052, W: 1088)
Angola (L: 368, D: 372, W: 380)
Grenada (L: 264, D: 273, W: 291)
Dominica (L: 124, D: 137, W: 164)
Swaziland (L: 60, D: 75, W: 107)

2018 FIFA World Cup: CAF qualifying format to be changed?

In May 2013, CAF announced the qualifying format for the 2015 Africa Cup of Nations (hosted by Morocco).

With all the 2014 FIFA match dates used for the 2015 qualifiers, it means the preliminaries for the 2017 ACN and 2018 World Cup will only start in 2015. The preliminary draw for the 2018 FIFA World Cup will take place on 24 or 25 July 2015.

CAF can't use the 2010 WCQ system because back then the World Cup and the Nations Cup where held in the same year.

Should FIFA upgrade regional tournaments?

FIFA have recognized CHAN matches as "A" matches, although the squad are made up exclusively of players active in the national leagues. Most of the top African teams have few local players. I consider this to be a mistake as it hurts the ranking of African teams, but that's what they asked for after all.

I think FIFA should upgrade the status of regional tournaments. Currently, these matches are considered friendlies (importance multiplier of 1), although they are played under strict rules (at most 3 substitutions) and usually fans place a lot of importance on these competitions.

Friday, June 21, 2013

10000 sims on the road to Brazil (21 June 2013)

More info in the first 'Road to Brazil' post.

Here's the outcome:

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding simulations for the African play-offs
2014 FIFA World Cup seeding simulations for the European play-offs
2014 FIFA World Cup qualification chances
2014 FIFA World Cup final seeding simulations
2016 UEFA EURO 2016 qualifying draw pots simulations

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

2016 UEFA EURO 2016 qualifying draw pots simulations (21 June 2013)

More about the simulations in the second and third paragraphs of the first 'Road to Brazil' post.

I know the EURO 2016 qualifying format will most likely change, but since I already had the code in place, here are the updated simulations.

Pot 6:

100% - Andorra
100% - San Marino
100% - Gibraltar
99.92% - Malta
99.55% - Liechtenstein
98.14% - Faroe Islands
97.69% - Luxembourg
81.87% - Kazakhstan
17.08% - Cyprus
5.7% - Azerbaijan
0.02% - Georgia
0.01% - Moldova
0.01% - Iceland
0.01% - FYR Macedonia


2014 FIFA World Cup final seeding simulations (21 June 2013)

More about the simulations in the second and third paragraphs of the first 'Road to Brazil' post.

Most improved since the 12 April simulations:

32.25% - Italy
30.49% - Belgium
19.55% - Chile
19.26% - Colombia
13.1% - Uruguay


2014 FIFA World Cup qualification chances (21 June 2013)

More about the simulations in the second and third paragraphs of the first 'Road to Brazil' post.

Most improved since the 12 April simulations:

58.98% - Iran
37.19% - Algeria
34.94% - Costa Rica
31.23% - Ukraine
28.41% - Australia
23.28% - Ghana
22.32% - Chile
22.02% - USA
21.31% - Belgium
17.54% - Uruguay
13.81% - Burkina Faso
11.88% - Ethiopia
8.84% - Nigeria
8.6% - Portugal
7.17% - Bosnia-Herzegovina

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding simulations for the European play-offs (21 June)

More about the simulations in the second and third paragraphs of the first 'Road to Brazil' post.

The October 2013 FIFA ranking will be used to seed the teams (this has been confirmed by FIFA).

Worst runner-up is most likely to come out of groups B or E.

39.68% - Group B
38.46% - Group E
7.69% - Group D
7.23% - Group C
3.47% - Group A
2.17% - Group H
1.16% - Group I
0.14% - Group G

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding simulations for the African play-offs (21 June 2013)

More about the simulations in the second and third paragraphs of the first 'Road to Brazil' post.

The September 2013 FIFA ranking will be used to seed the teams (this has been confirmed by FIFA).

I'm aware of the disciplinary procedures opened against 3 African teams. I expect Ethiopia and Togo to lose 3 - 0 their matches against Botswana and Cameroon. The Equatorial Guinea issue has to do with player nationality (most likely Ricardinho). I will update the simulations when the decisions will be final.

As of now 5 teams have qualified for the play-offs: Ethiopia, Tunisia,  Côte d'Ivoire, Egypt and Algeria.
Algeria have pulled out of CHAN and Supersport hinted they might have done this in order to avoid Egypt in the play-off draw. If that is true, it was in vain, as Egypt have only a 15.34% chance of being seeded. We could see another Algeria - Egypt or Côte d'Ivoire - Egypt clash.

2014 FIFA World Cup play-offs: FIFA ranking used to seed teams

Last Saturday, FIFA made an unexpected (though welcome) announcement.

FIFA Ranking: July 2013 probable ranking (III)

Next update: 28 June 2013.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 4 July.

I'm aware of the disciplinary procedures opened against 3 African teams. I expect Ethiopia and Togo to lose 3 - 0 their matches against Botswana and Cameroon. The Equatorial Guinea issue has to do with player nationality (most likely Ricardinho). I will update the ranking when the decisions will be final.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings.

The total points are already set for all teams, with the exception of the 12 teams involved in the remaining matches. For minimum and maximum points see the preview.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

FIFA Ranking: July 2013 preview (III)

Next update: 28 June 2013.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 4 July.

11 matches left before the deadline: 1 friendly, 2 CHAN qualifiers and 8 Confederations Cup matches.

I'm aware of the disciplinary procedures opened against 3 African teams. I expect Ethiopia and Togo to lose 3 - 0 their matches against Botswana and Cameroon. The Equatorial Guinea issue has to do with player nationality (most likely Ricardinho). I will update the ranking when the decisions will be final.

Spain are now sure of keeping their first spot.

Colombia above Argentina - first time since February 1998.

Friday, June 14, 2013

2014 FIFA World Cup final seeding simulations (14 June 2013)

The simulation algorithm is explained in the first Road to Brazil post.

Most points gained:

33.57% - Belgium
22.3% - Chile
21.89% - Colombia
11.64% - Uruguay
10.3% - Portugal

Most points lost:

-48.13% - Croatia
-22.29% - Ecuador
-15.47% - Mexico

2013 FIFA Confederations Cup simulations (14 June 2013)

The simulation algorithm is explained in the first Road to Brazil post.

Fourth in group:

Tahiti - 88.46%
Japan - 44.86%
Mexico - 29.32%
Italy - 22.11%
Nigeria - 8.3%
Brazil - 3.71%
Uruguay - 3.12%
Spain - 0.12%

EURO 2016 qualifying draw seeding (14 June 2013)

Next update: August / September 2013.

The coefficients for the EURO 2016 qualifying draw will take into account results from:

2010 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2012 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2014 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting

Click here for more info on the coefficient system.

France will host the final tournament.

The qualifying format is already known (but things will most likely change): 9 groups (2 x 5, 7 x 6)

Top two from each group and the best team in third place advance. The other eight play-off for the final four spots.

FIFA Ranking: July 2013 probable ranking (II)

Next update: 21 June 2013.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 4 July.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking. 

Scotland will climb at least 22 places - best ever climb, improving on the 18 spots climbed in July 2006.

Austria (at least 19 places up) and South Sudan (2 places up) will equal their best ever climb. Austria climbed 19 places in July 2006, while South Sudan climbed 2 spots in September 2012.

FIFA Ranking: July 2013 probable results (II)

Here are the probable results used for the July 2013 probable ranking (II). They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

FIFA Ranking: July 2013 preview (II)

Next update: 21 June 2013.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 4 July.

48 matches left before the deadline.

Most points gained (worst case scenario):

129 - Scotland
126 - Austria
126 - Armenia
107 - Peru
95 - Finland
88 - Malta
87 - Ukraine
83 - Colombia
66 - Slovenia
57 - Cape Verde Islands

Friday, June 7, 2013

FIFA Ranking: July 2013 probable ranking

Next update: most likely 21 June 2013.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 4 July.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.


FIFA Ranking: July 2013 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the July 2013 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

FIFA Ranking: July 2013 preview

Next update: most likely 21 June 2013.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 4 July.

123 matches will be played this month, most of them FIFA World Cup qualifiers. There's also the FIFA Confederations Cup in Brazil.

Most points gained (worst case scenario):

52 - Cuba
31 - New Zealand
17 - Burundi
13 - Lebanon
8 - United Arab Emirates
7 - US Virgin Islands
6 - New Caledonia
5 - Palestine
5 - Bangladesh
5 - Guam

EURO 2016: UEFA looking to change qualifying format

In 2012, Gianni Infantino said UEFA will review the qualifying format to make sure it's not boring.

Martin Samuel recently interviewed Michel Platini. You can find the full transcript on the Daily Mail. A lot of issues were discussed and even the qualifying format for EURO 2016 was brought up. Here's the excerpt. Looks very similar to the proposal presented by Mr. Platini in 2011.

I think Mr. Platini made a small mistake - the UEFA meeting in Dubrovnik will take place in September this year, not in 2014.

Best teams to play against on 14 August

This is based on (FIFA points for a win) / (actual effort from Elo rating).

I ran 10000 simulations using the Elo Ratings for the matches still to be played before the August 2013 FIFA ranking deadline.

I took into account only teams that would bring at least 200 points for an OFC opponent.

Of the top 20 best teams to play against only 6 are still available for the 14 August 2013 FIFA match date.

June 2013: Recommended friendly impact

The best opponent to play against is determined using a combination of Elo ratings and FIFA rankings. Let's look at the June FIFA ranking and we'll see the impact of one extra friendly. The difference in ranking is computed assuming all things remain equal, except the points of the given team.

The most popular opponent for the month of May is Equatorial Guinea - the best opponent for no less than 99 teams.

Of the top 15 teams, only Netherlands and England would have benefited from an extra friendly - both gaining 2 points. England would have climbed one spot.

June 2013: FIFA Ranking vs. Elo Ratings

Top 10 differences for countries with a better Elo Rating:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference


South Sudan 200 139 61
Fiji 182 122 60
Syria 138 80 58
Korea DPR 114 57 57
Vanuatu 191 143 48
Kuwait 111 70 41
China PR 95 56 39
Gambia 162 126 36
Finland 84 50 34
Iraq 98 64 34

Friday, May 31, 2013

FIFA Ranking: June 2013 probable ranking (II)

FIFA will publish the ranking on 6 June, so this is the final update for June.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

There will be a lot of movement due to devaluation of results.

FIFA Ranking: June 2013 probable results (II)

Here are the probable results used for the June 2013 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

FIFA Ranking: June 2013 preview (II)

FIFA will publish the ranking on 6 June, so this is also the final preview.

14 matches (all friendlies) are scheduled to be played before (and including) 2 June.

At least four teams will improve their best ever ranking:

Belgium (12 - 15 in May 2013)
Bosnia-Herzegovina (15 - 19 in January 2012)
Mali (between 22 and 23 - 24 in March 2013)
Albania (between 38 and 39 - 43 in May 2013)

Friday, May 17, 2013

CAF EXCO decisions: 2014 WCQ and 2015 AFCON details

Source: CAFOnline.com

The CAF Executive Committee also confirmed the dates of the final phase of the upcoming Orange Africa Cup of Nations - Morocco 2015 to be held from Saturday January 17th to Saturday February 07th 2015. The qualifiers will include two (2) phases, one preliminary phase in July / August to reduce the engaged teams to 48, and a group phase made of 12 groups of 4 teams each, whereby the top of each group as well as the best 3 runners up will qualify to the final phase.

May 2013: Recommended friendly impact

You have seen posts with best teams to play against. What would be the impact of such a friendly?

The best opponent to play against is determined using a combination of Elo ratings and FIFA rankings. Let's look at the May FIFA ranking and we'll see the impact of one extra friendly. The difference in ranking is computed assuming all things remain equal, except the points of the given team.

The most popular opponent for the month of April is Equatorial Guinea - the best opponent for no less than 107 teams.

May 2013: FIFA Ranking vs. Elo Ratings

Top 10 differences for countries with a better Elo Rating:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference


South Sudan 200 139 61
Korea DPR 115 57 58
Syria 138 80 58
Fiji 177 121 56
Kuwait 113 70 43
China PR 98 56 42
Iraq 97 59 38
New Zealand 87 52 35
United Arab Emirates 89 55 34
Eritrea 198 164 34

Friday, May 10, 2013

FIFA Ranking: June 2013 probable ranking

Next update: 31 May 2013.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 6 June.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

There will be a lot of movement due to devaluation of results.

FIFA Ranking: June 2013 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the June 2013 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

FIFA Ranking: June 2013 preview

Next update: 31 May 2013.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 6 June.

29 matches (all friendlies) are scheduled to be played before (and including) 2 June.

Most points gained (worst case scenario):

118 - New Zealand
112 - Bosnia-Herzegovina
76 - Spain
72 - Iceland
65 - Netherlands
64 - Serbia
52 - Montenegro
50 - Albania
49 - Wales
43 - Switzerland and Mali

Friday, April 26, 2013

FIFA Ranking: May 2013 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 9 May 2013.

Only one match left: Zambia - Zimbabwe a friendly scheduled for 28 April 2013.

This is how the points could change:

Zambia (L: 610, D: 616, W: 628) Zambia will be ranked between 48 and 46.
Zimbabwe (L: 330, D: 343, W: 370) Zimbabwe will be ranked between 105 and 100.

In the table below, the values displayed for these teams are the lowest possible.

Friday, April 19, 2013

FIFA Ranking: May 2013 preview

Next update: 26 April 2013.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 9 May 2013.

Only 9 matches will affect the May ranking, two of them have already been played. Six of those still to be played will be part of the Windward Islands Tournament. The other one will involve Brazil and Chile.

This is how the points and ranks could change for these teams:

Team - Minimum Points - Maximum Points - Worst Ranking - Best Ranking


Brazil 892 923 21 18
Chile 832 878 24 22
St. Vincent and the Grenadines 223 261 135 123
Grenada 207 302 142 117
St. Lucia 145 228 160 132
Dominica 113 195 170 145

In the table below, I've used the lowest values possible for these teams, thus their totals won't drop.

Best teams to play against in May 2013


If you're planning to play a friendly between 6 May and 2 June, take a look at the list below.

This is based on (FIFA points for a win) / (actual effort from Elo rating).

Only teams that would bring at least 200 points for an OFC opponent.

April 2013: FIFA Ranking vs. Elo Ratings

Top 10 differences for countries with a better Elo Rating:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference


South Sudan 200 139 61
Korea DPR 115 57 58
Syria 137 80 57
Fiji 177 121 56
Kuwait 113 70 43
China PR 98 56 42
Iraq 96 59 37
New Zealand 86 52 34
United Arab Emirates 89 55 34
Guinea-Bissau 180 147 33

Friday, April 12, 2013

10000 sims on the road to Brazil

Remember Voros McCracken's "Road to South Africa"? I was a very faithful reader, but Voros seems to be out of the picture for now. On 1 September 2011, he announced he will be writing for ESPN Insider.

I really wanted to do something similar for the 2014 FIFA World Cup final draw seeding, but I never had the time to create an offense / defense rating system to use it to generate results. Three weeks after Voros made the announcement regarding ESPN Insider, Håkon (one of my readers) suggested calculating the expected goals from the Elo expected winning percentange.

2016 UEFA EURO 2016 qualifying draw pots simulations (12 April 2013)

Pot 6:

100% - Andorra
100% - Malta
100% - San Marino
99.49% - Liechtenstein
98.09% - Faroe Islands
97.5% - Luxembourg
85.76% - Kazakhstan
15.4% - Cyprus
3.6% - Azerbaijan
0.1% - Moldova
0.06% - Georgia

2014 FIFA World Cup final seeding simulations (12 April 2013)

Italy look favorites to clinch the last seeded spot, with Ecuador, England, Mexico and Portugal around 15 points behind the Italians.

100% - Brazil
98.92% - Spain
94.54% - Germany
93.89% - Argentina
82.64% - Croatia

2014 FIFA World Cup qualification chances (12 April 2013)

Japan always qualified in each of the 10000 simulations.

100% - Japan
99.99% - Argentina
99.9% - Netherlands
98.92% - Spain
98.12% - Ecuador
97.97% - Germany
97.8% - Colombia
95.73% - Russia

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding simulations for the European play-offs (12 April)

Worst runner up:

15.6% - Norway
10.17% - Denmark
9.36% - Bulgaria
8.98% - Hungary
7.49% - Albania
6.97% - Czech Republic
5.48% - Romania

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding simulations for the African play-offs (12 April 2013)

Pot 2:

85.78% - Egypt
74.42% - Congo
48.55% - Senegal
40.63% - South Africa
35.37% - Ethiopia
31.29% - Zambia
30.13% - Cameroon
21.39% - Libya
21.16% - Angola
15.84% - Tunisia
15.81% - Uganda

2013 CONCACAF Gold Cup simulations (12 April 2013)

Last in group:

Belize - 80.65%
Martinique - 56.3%
Trinidad and Tobago - 36.54%
Haiti - 35.49%
Canada - 29.16%
El Salvador - 19.96%
Cuba - 16.63%
Panama - 11.01%
Honduras - 8.01%
Mexico - 3.53%
Costa Rica - 2.45%
USA - 0.27%

2013 FIFA Confederations Cup simulations (12 April 2013)

Fourth in group:

Tahiti - 87.71%
Japan - 43.49%
Mexico - 30.11%
Italy - 22.57%
Nigeria - 8.02%
Uruguay - 4.08%
Brazil - 3.83%
Spain - 0.19%

Friday, March 29, 2013

EURO 2016 qualifying draw seeding based on generated results (29 March 2013)

Since I already have the results generated using the Elo ratings for the remaining 2014 World Cup qualifiers, I thought I should post them in case anyone is interested.

It doesn't include the play-offs, obviously.

Wins are considered to be 1 - 0, draws 0 - 0.

EURO 2016 qualifying draw seeding (29 March 2013)

Next update: March / April 2013.

The coefficients for the EURO 2016 qualifying draw will take into account results from:

2010 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2012 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2014 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting

Click here for more info on the coefficient system.

France will host the final tournament.

The qualifying format is already known (but things might change): 9 groups (2 x 5, 7 x 6)

Top two from each group and the best team in third place advance. The other eight play-off for the final four spots.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding based on generated results (29 March 2013)

I've generated the results for the 392 matches between now and 15 October 2013 using the Elo ratings. I'm well aware actual results could be wildly different. Another thing to take into account: teams will most likely scheduled friendlies for the remaining available FIFA dates and this will affect their final ranking.

Somewhere in the not so distant future, I'll start doing simulations for the remaining matches.

For the Northern Ireland - Russia qualifier I've used 11 June as the new date, but when FIFA announce the official date I'll use that instead.

Based on these generated results, African group I and the play-off spots in CONCACAF and CONMEBOL would be decided on goal difference.


Here's the breakdown by confederation:

FIFA Ranking: April 2013 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 11 April 2013.

Only one match left: 6 April Bolivia vs. Brazil (friendly).

This is how the totals could change for these two teams:

Brazil (L: 879, D: 889, W: 909)
Bolivia (L: 537, D: 553, W: 586)

In the table below the values displayed for these teams are the lowest possible, so even if the lose, their totals won't drop.

Croatia move an impressive 5 places to reach 4th. Their best ranking was 3rd in January 1999.

Brazil will drop to at least 19th - their worst ever ranking. If they don't win against Bolivia they will drop out of the top 20, to 21st.




Friday, March 22, 2013

FIFA announce 2014 / 2018 World Cup draw dates

According to this FIFA.com article, the final draw for the 2014 FIFA World Cup will take place at Costa do Sauipe in Bahia at 13.00 local time (17.00 CET) on 6 December 2013, while the preliminary draw for the 2018 FIFA World Cup will take place in Saint Petersburg on either 24 or 25 July 2015.

Related articles:

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding based on generated results (22 March 2013)

As promised, here's a look at the 2014 World Cup seeding for the final draw and European play-offs based on results generated using the Elo Ratings.

I've generated the results for the 491 matches between now and 15 October 2013. I'm well aware actual results could be wildly different. Another thing to take into account: teams will most likely scheduled friendlies for the remaining available FIFA dates and this will affect their final ranking.

The outcome could be a bit suprising for some.

Groups D, I and J in Africa and group G in UEFA seem set for a photo finish, while Uzbekistan look destined to make their World Cup debut.

Here's the breakdown by confederation:

March 2013: FIFA Ranking vs. Elo Ratings

Top 10 differences for countries with a better Elo Rating:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference

South Sudan 200 140 60
Syria 134 79 55
Fiji 175 121 54
China PR 109 59 50
Korea DPR 102 57 45
United Arab Emirates 98 57 41
Kuwait 113 73 40
Iraq 94 55 39
Guinea-Bissau 183 146 37
Eritrea 197 163 34

Friday, March 15, 2013

FIFA Ranking: April 2013 probable ranking

Next update: 22 or 29 March 2013.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 11 April 2013.

There will no less than 128 matches this month.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

Based on these probable results:

Colombia will climb to 4th, Mexico will be 10th, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan will climb around 50 places, Turkmenistan - 32, Cameroon, Senegal, Equatorial Guinea, China PR and Slovenia - 15 or more, Poland, Egypt, Morocco, Scotland and Turkey - 10 or more, while Bolivia will drop 29 places, Northern Ireland 24, Georgia - 17, Solomon Islands, Cape Verde Islands, Dominican Republic, Bulgaria, Albania and Korea DPR - 10 or more.


FIFA Ranking: April 2013 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the April 2013 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

FIFA Ranking: April 2013 preview

Next update: 22 or 29 March 2013.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 11 April 2013.

There will no less than 128 matches this month.

Most points gained (worst case scenario):

29 - Tajikistan
23 - Nepal
20 - Afghanistan
18 - Bangladesh
16 - Equatorial Guinea
16 - Maldives
11 - Gambia
11 - Sri Lanka
10 - Liechtenstein
8 - El Salvador
8 - Guatemala
8 - Iraq
8 - St. Vincent and the Grenadines
8 - Burundi
8 - Myanmar

Monday, February 18, 2013

FIFA Ranking: March 2013 preview

Next update: 8 March 2013.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 14 March 2013.

This is a quiet month - only 11 teams have matches scheduled - all part of the 2014 AFC Challenge Cup qualification. None of them could climb higher than 128th. This means the top 127 of the March ranking is already set.

This is how the points and rankings could change for these 11 teams:

Team - Minimum points - Maximum points - Worst possible rank - Best possible rank

Palestine 132 175 168 143
India 97 218 175 138
Myanmar 84 165 178 147
Bangladesh 79 208 178 140
Chinese Taipei 78 175 178 143
Laos 73 154 179 149
Nepal 72 152 179 150
Mongolia 50 244 187 128
Guam 40 120 190 164
Afghanistan 39 233 190 131
Sri Lanka 28 221 196 135

In the table below, the values displayed for these teams are the lowest possible, thus their total points can't drop even if they lose all the matches.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding update (18 February 2013)

Next update: March/April 2013

Includes matches up to and including 17 February 2013.

See more info in the original 2014 FIFA World Cup seeding post.

This ranking could also be used for the UEFA play-off.

This is the top 20 of the intermediate October 2013 ranking.

Friday, February 8, 2013

FIFA Ranking: February 2013 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 14 February 2013.

Three matches left: a friendly (Nepal - Pakistan) and the final and the 3rd place match of the 2013 Africa Cup of Nations (Nigeria - Burkina Faso and Mali - Ghana).

This is how the points could change:

L = Loss, D = Draw, W = Win, PSO = Penalty shoot-out.

Ghana (L:865, PSO L:893, PSO W:922, W:950)
Nigeria (L:698, PSO L:714, PSO W:731, W:747)
Mali (L:679, PSO L:723, PSO W:768, W:813)
Burkina Faso (L:571, PSO L:594, PSO W:618, W:642)
Nepal (L:80, D:85, W:95)
Pakistan (L:63, D:71, W:88)

In the table below, the values displayed for those teams are the lowest possible.

Brazil will fall to 19th (worst ever ranking) if Ghana defeat Mali after 90 or 120 minutes (i.e. avoiding PSO).

Friday, February 1, 2013

FIFA Ranking: February 2013 probable ranking

Next update: 8 February 2013. 

59 matches left before the deadline. FIFA will publish the ranking on 14 February 2012.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

Based on these probable results, Côte d'Ivoire will climb to 4th (best ever ranking for a team from Africa).

FIFA decided to consider CHAN matches as friendlies and they have added some CHAN games played in December 2012. That's why for instance Mauritania and Mauritius climb in the rankings.

Mauritania, South Africa and Belize will climb more than 30 places, Burkina Faso - 26, Congo, Mauritius, El Salvador and Congo DR - 15 or more.

Equatorial Guinea will drop 33 places, Gabon - 26, Angola - 17, Egypt 14, Guinea, Tanzania, Haiti and Algeria - 10 or more.

FIFA Ranking: February 2013 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the February 2013 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

FIFA Ranking: February 2013 preview

Next update: 8 February 2013.

Most points gained (worst case scenario):

130 - Belize
98 - Burkina Faso
91 - Mauritania
72 - South Africa
63 - Congo
60 - El Salvador
45 - Congo DR
44 - Costa Rica
42 - Tunisia
39 - Ghana

Most points dropped (best case scenario):

-134 - Equatorial Guinea
-110 - Gabon
-104 - Algeria
-62 - Angola
-55 - Japan
-55 - Zambia
-55 - Egypt
-45 - Libya
-45 - Guinea
-35 - Colombia

January 2013 FIFA Ranking: Discrepancy between results and points

As Ed noticed, there is a problem with Burkina Faso (and Bahrain and Congo). FIFA awarded a FIFA World Cup qualifier played in June 2012 to Congo (the result on the field was 0:0). FIFA also removed the friendly Bahrain - Burkina Faso (0:0 on December 26th, 2012), before the ranking was released. The points for Burkina Faso are computed as if these changes were ignored.

EURO 2016 pots: Points needed to stay in current pot

In November 2012 I posted a list with the points needed to climb to the next pot (e.g. from pot 3 from pot 2) for the EURO 2016 preliminary draw.

Håkon asked me for a list with the points needed to stay in the current pot. Here it is.

Rank
Team
Points needed to stay in the current pot in a no play-off scenario.
Points per game needed in a no play-off scenario
Points needed to stay in the current pot in a play-off scenario.
Points per game needed in a play-off scenario

January 2013: FIFA Ranking vs. Elo Ratings

Top 10 differences for countries with a better Elo Rating:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference


Syria 136 75 61
South Sudan 198 141 57
Fiji 169 123 46
Mauritania 206 163 43
Iraq 89 52 37
Korea DPR 99 63 36
China PR 86 51 35
Kuwait 120 85 35
New Zealand 91 57 34
Eritrea 195 161 34


Friday, January 11, 2013

FIFA Ranking: January 2013 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 17 January.

18 teams involved in 9 friendlies - up to Sunday. This is how the points and rankings can change:

Team - Minimum Points - Maximum Points - Worst possible ranking - Best possible ranking


Algeria 818 850 23 21
Ghana 763 788 30 26
Panama 571 594 53 46
Tunisia 570 596 53 44
Morocco 448 461 77 74
Guatemala 412 437 87 80
South Africa 397 436 88 80
Iraq 386 392 92 89
Qatar 331 346 107 103
Oman 328 340 108 103
United Arab Emirates 324 346 109 103
Ethiopia 302 316 113 110
Saudi Arabia 277 293 120 115
Bahrain 269 282 123 117
Tanzania 264 281 126 117
Kuwait 262 276 126 119
Namibia 259 299 126 114
Yemen 106 129 165 160

In the table below, the values used for these teams are the minimum possible.