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Friday, June 14, 2013

FIFA Ranking: July 2013 probable ranking (II)

Next update: 21 June 2013.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 4 July.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking. 

Scotland will climb at least 22 places - best ever climb, improving on the 18 spots climbed in July 2006.

Austria (at least 19 places up) and South Sudan (2 places up) will equal their best ever climb. Austria climbed 19 places in July 2006, while South Sudan climbed 2 spots in September 2012.


Colombia above Argentina - first time since February 1998.

England (at best 11th) will be out of the top 10 for the first time since October 2008.

Greece will overtake England for the first time since June 2008.
Belgium will overtake them for the first time since June 1995 - when England were playing only friendlies as hosts of EURO 1996.
Bosnia-Herzegovina will overtake them for the first time ever.

At least four teams will improve their best ever ranking: 

Belgium (at least 11 - 12 in June 2013)
Bosnia-Herzegovina (at least 14 - 15 in June 2013)
Peru (at least 21 - 25 in July 2011)
Guam (at least 177 - 178 in October 2012)

At least one team will return to its best ever ranking:

Timor-Leste (182 - 182 in December 2012)

At least four teams will drop to new lows:

Fiji (191 - 182 in June 2013)
Cambodia (198 - 192 in July 2012)
Seychelles (200 - 199 in July 2011)
Cook Islands (204 - 202 in April 2009)

Based on these probable results:

Best movers:

25 - Guinea
24 - Scotland, Armenia and Malta
23 - Cape Verde Islands

Worst movers:

-27 - Central African Republic
-25 - Jamaica
-21 - Benin

Best movers in the top 50:

24 - Scotland
23 - Cape Verde Islands
13 - Brazil

Worst movers in the top 50:

-25 - Jamaica
-8 - Ecuador, Denmark and Panama
-7 - Serbia, Bulgaria and Zambia

Remember, based on these probable results:

10 teams will improve their best ever ranking:

Colombia (3 - 4 in December 1996)
Belgium (8 - 12 in June 2013)
Bosnia-Herzegovina (13 - 15 in June 2013)
Peru (20 - 25 in July 2011)
Cape Verde Islands (49 - 51 in October 2012)
Dominican Republic (91 - 92 in November 2012)
Tajikistan (106 - 112 in April 2013)
Afghanistan (138 - 139 in April 2013)
Philippines (142 - 143 in November 2012)
Guam (176 - 178 in October 2012)

One team will return to its best ever ranking:

Timor-Leste (182 - 182 in December 2012)

Five teams will drop to new lows:

Sudan (142 - 135 in April 2000)
Fiji (191 - 182 in June 2013)
Cambodia (198 - 192 in July 2012)
Seychelles (200 - 199 in July 2011)
Cook Islands (204 - 202 in April 2009)

Probable July 2013 rank - Team - Probable July 2013 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points

1 Spain 1602 0 -12
2 Germany 1273 0 -143
3 Colombia 1206 4 83
4 Argentina 1204 -1 -83
5 Netherlands 1180 0 22
6 Portugal 1099 0 -38
7 Croatia 1098 -3 -124
8 Belgium 1079 4 44
9 Brazil 1065 13 193
10 Italy 1046 -2 -51
11 Greece 1038 5 32
12 Uruguay 1016 7 103
13 Bosnia-Herzegovina 995 2 -13
14 England 994 -5 -101
15 Switzerland 987 -1 -23
16 Russia 979 -5 -80
17 Côte d'Ivoire 943 -4 -79
18 Ecuador 932 -8 -134
19 Mexico 911 -2 -17
20 Peru 898 10 107
21 Chile 872 4 31
22 USA 865 6 67
23 France 838 -5 -84
24 Ghana 813 -3 -74
25 Mali 808 -2 -61
26 Norway 801 3 7
27 Czech Republic 797 -3 -56
28 Denmark 788 -8 -102
29 Montenegro 774 -4 -67
29 Ukraine 774 10 87
31 Sweden 765 -4 -65
32 Hungary 749 1 -10
33 Korea Republic 737 7 71
34 Romania 732 0 -18
35 Algeria 726 0 -11
36 Nigeria 724 -5 -61
37 Venezuela 704 0 -8
38 Albania 689 0 -1
38 Japan 689 -6 -76
40 Costa Rica 688 8 71
41 Australia 671 6 52
42 Tunisia 666 0 14
43 Serbia 661 -7 -62
44 Republic of Ireland 639 -3 -20
45 Slovenia 634 10 66
46 Wales 630 -1 -8
47 Burkina Faso 623 4 29
48 Paraguay 622 -4 -18
49 Cape Verde Islands 620 23 134
50 Scotland 610 24 129
51 Panama 601 -8 -48
52 South Africa 599 8 57
53 Bulgaria 596 -7 -32
54 Austria 595 22 126
55 New Zealand 582 2 31
56 Zambia 574 -7 -28
57 Turkey 573 -3 0
58 Honduras 569 -6 -13
59 Uzbekistan 563 -1 13
60 Guinea 545 25 107
61 Egypt 543 10 52
62 Slovakia 542 -6 -23
63 Israel 540 -1 0
64 Finland 537 20 95
65 Armenia 534 24 126
66 Bolivia 528 -13 -50
67 Iran 527 0 21
68 Haiti 522 -5 -16
69 Cameroon 517 -4 0
70 Togo 511 3 28
71 Iceland 499 -10 -42
71 Libya 499 -2 1
73 Poland 493 -8 -24
74 Jamaica 484 -25 -118
75 Belarus 482 -8 -24
76 Morocco 470 1 7
77 Uganda 466 16 65
78 Equatorial Guinea 464 -14 -59
78 Jordan 464 -3 -8
80 Gabon 459 2 15
81 Cuba 458 10 52
82 Congo 450 -2 -2
83 Sierra Leone 443 -13 -54
84 Congo DR 434 -5 -20
85 United Arab Emirates 432 2 8
86 Central African Republic 429 -27 -114
87 Estonia 423 2 15
88 Trinidad and Tobago 419 -7 -28
89 Canada 413 -6 -30
90 Senegal 411 9 45
91 Dominican Republic 396 3 0
92 FYR Macedonia 395 -14 -65
93 Guatemala 388 -5 -22
94 El Salvador 382 -8 -47
95 Angola 380 -4 -26
96 New Caledonia 377 1 6
97 Oman 372 4 21
98 Georgia 369 -2 -22
99 China PR 354 -4 -39
100 Liberia 344 0 -12
101 Iraq 335 -3 -35
102 Mozambique 326 1 -23
103 Ethiopia 325 3 -3
104 Lithuania 321 1 -9
105 Saudi Arabia 315 3 -8
106 Tajikistan 314 6 2
107 Niger 313 0 -12
108 Malawi 312 1 -5
109 Suriname 311 4 0
110 Kuwait 309 1 -6
111 Northern Ireland 307 5 3
112 Korea DPR 306 2 -3
112 Qatar 306 -8 -32
114 Zimbabwe 304 -12 -46
115 Azerbaijan 298 3 7
116 Bahrain 286 1 -6
117 Latvia 280 2 -7
118 Burundi 273 7 17
119 Tanzania 271 -10 -46
120 Antigua and Barbuda 265 1 -15
121 Grenada 264 3 -2
121 Kenya 264 2 -4
123 Cyprus 256 -1 -13
123 Moldova 256 11 26
125 Namibia 252 -5 -29
126 Botswana 251 1 6
127 Guyana 250 -1 1
128 Lebanon 246 3 13
129 Belize 242 0 3
130 Puerto Rico 241 -2 0
131 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 238 -1 0
132 Malta 236 24 88
133 Rwanda 233 2 9
134 Turkmenistan 232 -2 0
135 Kyrgyzstan 227 8 21
136 Benin 225 -21 -83
137 St. Kitts and Nevis 218 0 0
138 Afghanistan 214 2 4
139 Luxembourg 210 6 24
139 St. Lucia 210 1 0
141 Syria 205 -3 -10
142 Philippines 203 2 0
142 Sudan 203 -7 -21
144 Thailand 202 -2 -7
145 Vietnam 182 -12 -49
146 India 178 1 0
147 Barbados 175 2 0
148 Hong Kong 173 -1 -5
148 Liechtenstein 173 10 28
150 Kazakhstan 172 -4 -8
151 Palestine 167 0 5
152 Bangladesh 166 0 5
153 Aruba 163 -3 0
154 Maldives 147 3 1
154 Tahiti 147 -16 -68
156 Singapore 146 9 12
157 Bermuda 139 4 0
158 Nicaragua 138 4 0
159 Malaysia 136 0 -8
160 Chad 134 -6 -18
161 Lesotho 133 -8 -23
162 Solomon Islands 132 4 2
163 Myanmar 129 -8 -20
164 Gambia 126 -2 -12
165 Dominica 124 2 0
166 Sao Tome e Principe 120 -7 -24
167 Pakistan 114 1 -4
168 Indonesia 112 2 -4
169 Nepal 106 2 -2
170 Yemen 96 3 0
171 Sri Lanka 95 1 -4
172 Mauritania 94 2 0
173 Laos 87 -5 -31
174 Faroe Islands 81 -12 -57
175 Chinese Taipei 77 0 -13
176 Guam 70 2 5
177 Montserrat 66 -1 0
178 Curacao 65 0 0
179 Swaziland 60 -1 -5
180 Guinea-Bissau 58 1 -4
181 Bahamas 53 -5 -13
182 Brunei Darussalam 52 3 0
182 Mauritius 52 3 0
182 Timor-Leste 52 3 0
185 Madagascar 51 -1 -4
186 Mongolia 49 -4 -12
187 Samoa 46 1 0
187 US Virgin Islands 46 6 7
189 Tonga 43 1 -1
189 Vanuatu 43 2 0
191 Comoros 41 1 0
191 Fiji 41 -9 -20
193 British Virgin Islands 34 2 0
194 Cayman Islands 33 2 0
195 American Samoa 30 2 0
196 Eritrea 24 2 0
197 Papua New Guinea 23 -3 -15
198 Cambodia 20 -9 -25
198 South Sudan 20 2 0
200 Seychelles 19 -1 -3
201 Somalia 14 1 0
202 Macau 12 0 -2
203 Djibouti 11 1 0
204 Cook Islands 9 -3 -7
205 Andorra 8 0 0
206 Anguilla 3 0 -1
207 Bhutan 0 0 0
207 San Marino 0 0 0
207 Turks and Caicos Islands 0 0 0

5 comments:

  1. just a SMALL remark:

    "At least TWO teams will improve their best ever ranking:

    Belgium (at least 11 - 12 in June 2013)
    Bosnia-Herzegovina (at least 14 - 15 in June 2013)
    Peru (at least 21 - 25 in July 2011)
    Guam (at least 177 - 178 in October 2012)"

    probably must be "at least FOUR teams"

    ReplyDelete
  2. ooops! Since Algeria already had 737 points and was 35th in June, and has won 2 WC quals + a friendly, the Fennecs will have more than 737 points as of today Juy 4, 2013. Fennecs may well stay at 35th or even move down because of what other teams have doen (ie Brazil beetaing Sapin in the Con Fed Cup...) Still waiting for FIFA to post its Rankings for today....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No, Algeria won't have more than 737 points. In fact, they will lose 7 points alltogether but will climb 1 place in the ranking to 34th.

      Winning games and still losing points is part of the system of the World Ranking. The degredation of earlier results are the main cause for countries to lose points even if they won all their games in the past period.

      Delete