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Sunday, September 16, 2018

2022 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations (15 September 2018)

The first two matchdays in the UEFA Nations League 2018/2019 are played. Below the current probabilities (in %) for each team to end in each pot are presented, generated over 10.000 simulations. Teams are ordered by their average pot position.

2020 UEFA EURO qualification seeding: 10000 simulations (15 september 2018)

Here is an update after MD1 and MD2 in the UEFA Nations League 2018/2019 of the probabilities (in %) for each team to end in each pot -generated over 10.000 simulations- with teams ordered by their average UNL-ranking position.
The simulation results before the start of the UNL 2018/2019 and more details about the EURO 2020 qualification can be found here.

Saturday, September 15, 2018

CONCACAF Nations League 2020 Q simulations (15 September)

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the qualfying phase of the CONCACAF Nations League 2020 -generated over 10.000 simulations- after the first match day (match Martinique - British Virgin Islands still to be played).
Simulation results from before the start of qualification can be found here.

Wednesday, September 12, 2018

FIFA ranking: September 2018 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking next Thursday September 20th. Only one match to be played until then: the final this Saturday of the South Asian Championship between India and Maldives.

Sunday, September 9, 2018

2020 UEFA EURO qualification seeding: 10000 simulations (5 september 2018)

The overall UNL-ranking will be compiled after completion of the group stage of the UEFA Nations League 2018/2019. This ranking is used to seed the draw on December 2nd 2018 in Dublin for the qualifying stage of EURO 2020, which will run from March to November 2019 and will consist of 10 groups of 5 or 6 teams. The group numbers one and two of each group qualify for EURO 2020.

Wednesday, September 5, 2018

2022 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations (5 September 2018)

In the FIFA International Match Calendar 2018-2024 the preliminary draw for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar is scheduled for July 2019. The final draw is scheduled for April 2022.
The July 2019 ranking will probably be used to determine the seeding for the World Cup 2022 European qualification draw.

The upcoming UEFA Nations League will for a large part establish this ranking. Only the first part of the EURO 2020 qualification (2 MD's in March 2019 and 2 MD's in June 2019) is yet unknown (and several friendlies of course), but the July 2019 ranking for UEFA-teams can be simulated already taking into account all UNL-matches (6 MD's in each group and the Final Four in June 2019) and all scheduled friendlies.

Saturday, September 1, 2018

FIFA ranking: September 2018 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on September 20th.

Lots of matches for the UEFA Nations League groups, CONCACAF Nations League qualifiers, CAF Nations Cup qualifiers, a few regional Asian tournaments and also still a reasonable amount of friendlies.

Also check the probable September ranking.

FIFA ranking: September 2018 probable ranking

FIFA has adopted a new calculation method for their ranking. The elo-like method was used for the first time for the August 2018 ranking, published on August 16th. With that publication and the accompanying document almost all questions around the new calculation method were answered. FIFA was transparant after all about their starting values, how to handle matches that went to extra time and PSO and in what cases teams don't get points deducted. 

FIFA ranking: September 2018 probable results

Here are the results of all currently scheduled matches until September 16th, used to calculate the September 2018 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is incorporated (1) or not (0) into the FIFA fixture-list at the moment of writing. Also the Expected Home Win Probability (We) according to elo is given for each match in %.

FIFA ranking: September 2018 preview results

A new overview presenting the scheduled matches counting for the FIFA September 2018 ranking with FIFA's Expected Home Win Probability (We) in % and the points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team. In cases where matches can go to PSO, also the points exchanged when the home team wins (PSO-W) or loses (PSO-L) the penalty shoot-out are given.