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Saturday, September 1, 2018

FIFA ranking: September 2018 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on September 20th.

Lots of matches for the UEFA Nations League groups, CONCACAF Nations League qualifiers, CAF Nations Cup qualifiers, a few regional Asian tournaments and also still a reasonable amount of friendlies.

Also check the probable September ranking.


August 2018 rank - Country - August 2018 points - Minimum points - Maximum points

1 France 1726 1707 1736
2 Belgium 1723 1704 1729
3 Brazil 1657 1643 1663
4 Croatia 1643 1629 1654
5 Uruguay 1627 1622 1632
6 England 1615 1607 1622
7 Portugal 1599 1586 1611
8 Switzerland 1597 1588 1603
9 Denmark 1580 1566 1591
9 Spain 1580 1567 1597
11 Argentina 1574 1560 1580
12 Chile 1570 1557 1577
13 Sweden 1565 1550 1575
14 Colombia 1563 1552 1572
15 Germany 1561 1556 1571
16 Mexico 1560 1550 1570
17 Netherlands 1540 1530 1555
18 Poland 1538 1525 1550
19 Wales 1536 1521 1551
20 Peru 1535 1530 1540
21 Italy 1532 1518 1548
22 USA 1508 1500 1520
23 Austria 1502 1489 1514
24 Tunisia 1498 1478 1503
24 Senegal 1498 1479 1504
26 Slovakia 1493 1481 1506
27 Northern Ireland 1492 1477 1502
28 Romania 1490 1474 1504
29 Republic of Ireland 1484 1473 1498
30 Paraguay 1477 1477 1477
31 Venezuela 1476 1472 1482
32 Iran 1471 1464 1474
32 Costa Rica 1471 1460 1480
32 Iceland 1471 1461 1491
35 Ukraine 1468 1453 1483
36 Serbia 1459 1441 1471
37 Congo DR 1456 1435 1460
38 Turkey 1455 1441 1471
39 Bosnia-Herzegovina 1452 1438 1468
40 Scotland 1444 1433 1458
41 Montenegro 1440 1422 1452
42 Greece 1436 1418 1448
43 Australia 1431 1431 1431
44 Czech Republic 1430 1418 1443
45 Ghana 1424 1407 1432
46 Morocco 1418 1400 1425
47 Cameroon 1416 1396 1421
47 Bulgaria 1416 1401 1430
49 Nigeria 1410 1388 1413
49 Russia 1410 1399 1423
51 Hungary 1409 1394 1424
52 Burkina Faso 1408 1391 1416
53 Norway 1406 1390 1420
54 Jamaica 1400 1386 1401
55 Japan 1392 1385 1404
55 Slovenia 1392 1376 1406
57 Korea Republic 1387 1380 1400
58 Albania 1384 1368 1398
59 Bolivia 1378 1378 1378
60 Ecuador 1376 1368 1378
61 Honduras 1368 1368 1368
62 Finland 1364 1348 1378
63 Mali 1360 1340 1365
64 Cape Verde Islands 1356 1337 1362
65 Egypt 1355 1339 1364
66 Algeria 1351 1330 1355
67 Cote d'Ivoire 1344 1326 1351
67 Guinea 1344 1328 1353
69 Panama 1343 1343 1343
70 Saudi Arabia 1336 1336 1336
70 FYR Macedonia 1336 1314 1344
72 El Salvador 1332 1317 1342
73 Syria 1328 1317 1337
74 South Africa 1327 1312 1337
75 China PR 1320 1308 1328
76 Zambia 1315 1299 1324
77 United Arab Emirates 1312 1311 1311
78 Belarus 1306 1282 1312
79 Lebanon 1304 1298 1308
79 Canada 1304 1292 1307
81 Curacao 1300 1288 1303
82 Uganda 1296 1279 1304
83 Congo 1292 1276 1301
84 Oman 1288 1282 1292
85 Luxembourg 1286 1262 1292
86 Gabon 1284 1266 1291
87 Cyprus 1280 1268 1298
88 Benin 1276 1260 1285
89 Iraq 1274 1267 1277
90 Faroe Islands 1268 1246 1276
91 Trinidad and Tobago 1264 1264 1264
92 Kyrgyzstan 1260 1250 1270
93 Israel 1256 1247 1272
94 Estonia 1250 1240 1269
95 Uzbekistan 1247 1240 1260
96 India 1242 1227 1247
96 Georgia 1242 1224 1254
98 Qatar 1236 1227 1247
99 Palestine 1230 1220 1240
100 Armenia 1227 1210 1240
101 Libya 1224 1214 1239
102 Vietnam 1220 1220 1220
103 Niger 1216 1207 1232
104 Haiti 1212 1212 1212
105 Azerbaijan 1207 1187 1217
106 Mauritania 1200 1192 1217
107 Madagascar 1199 1193 1218
108 Korea DPR 1196 1196 1196
108 Central African Republic 1196 1187 1212
110 Jordan 1192 1184 1204
111 Sierra Leone 1188 1172 1197
112 Kenya 1182 1169 1204
113 Bahrain 1180 1171 1191
114 Mozambique 1176 1163 1188
115 Philippines 1172 1167 1177
116 Kazakhstan 1167 1152 1182
117 Namibia 1166 1157 1182
118 Zimbabwe 1164 1155 1180
119 New Zealand 1157 1157 1157
120 Tajikistan 1156 1156 1156
121 Guinea-Bissau 1148 1136 1161
122 Thailand 1144 1144 1144
123 Malawi 1140 1129 1164
124 Togo 1136 1127 1152
125 Chinese Taipei 1135 1129 1139
126 Antigua and Barbuda 1132 1122 1137
127 Lithuania 1130 1123 1153
128 Sudan 1128 1114 1139
129 Latvia 1122 1109 1139
130 Turkmenistan 1120 1120 1120
130 Andorra 1120 1107 1136
132 Nicaragua 1116 1106 1121
133 Yemen 1112 1112 1112
134 Swaziland 1105 1101 1126
135 St. Kitts and Nevis 1104 1094 1109
136 Rwanda 1100 1093 1118
137 Angola 1096 1083 1108
138 Myanmar 1092 1092 1092
139 Botswana 1089 1077 1102
140 Tanzania 1084 1076 1101
141 Kosovo 1080 1069 1099
142 Hong Kong 1076 1076 1076
143 Solomon Islands 1072 1068 1078
143 Equatorial Guinea 1072 1061 1086
145 Afghanistan 1068 1068 1068
146 Guatemala 1064 1064 1084
146 Lesotho 1064 1057 1082
148 Burundi 1056 1046 1076
149 Comoros 1052 1047 1072
150 Maldives 1048 1038 1058
151 Ethiopia 1044 1032 1062
152 Dominican Republic 1040 1040 1040
153 Suriname 1036 1027 1042
154 New Caledonia 1032 1032 1032
155 Mauritius 1028 1023 1033
156 South Sudan 1024 1019 1044
157 Tahiti 1020 1020 1020
158 Liberia 1016 1012 1037
159 Kuwait 1012 1009 1019
160 Barbados 1005 995 1010
161 Nepal 1004 986 1016
162 Vanuatu 1000 1000 1000
163 Belize 999 989 1004
164 Indonesia 992 992 992
165 Fiji 985 976 996
166 Papua New Guinea 984 984 984
166 Cambodia 984 979 989
168 Grenada 980 976 991
169 Singapore 976 967 987
170 St. Lucia 972 967 982
171 Malaysia 971 962 982
172 Gambia 964 959 984
173 Puerto Rico 960 955 970
173 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 960 955 970
175 Moldova 957 951 981
176 Chad 956 956 956
177 Dominica 952 946 961
178 Laos 948 948 948
178 Bermuda 948 940 955
180 Liechtenstein 944 932 962
181 Cuba 940 931 946
182 Guyana 936 929 944
183 Bhutan 932 917 947
184 Malta 928 921 951
185 Macau 924 915 930
186 Sao Tomé e Príncipe 920 920 920
186 Mongolia 920 912 927
188 Aruba 916 909 924
188 Seychelles 916 913 938
190 Timor-Leste 912 904 919
190 Guam 912 902 922
192 American Samoa 908 908 908
192 Cook Islands 908 908 908
194 Bangladesh 904 888 917
195 Brunei Darussalam 900 893 908
195 Gibraltar 900 891 921
197 Samoa 896 896 896
197 Djibouti 896 896 896
199 US Virgin Islands 892 889 904
200 Sri Lanka 888 885 905
201 Pakistan 884 871 901
202 Cayman Islands 880 878 893
203 San Marino 876 871 901
204 British Virgin Islands 872 872 872
204 Montserrat 872 870 885
206 Tonga 868 868 868
206 Eritrea 868 868 868
206 Somalia 868 868 868
206 Anguilla 868 868 868
206 Turks and Caicos Islands 868 862 877
206 Bahamas 868 862 877

About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

14 comments:

  1. Here, it is given that maximum points for India is 1247. But in the probable rankings India has 1249 points. There seems to be some mistake.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Truthy, no mistake but the exact minimum and maximum points with the new calculation method are just quite difficult to obtain.

    For now I have done the following: when I calculate for instance the minimum points for a team I set the scheduled matches for the team to a loss but DO NOT adjust the starting elo-value of the opponents in these matches.

    The probable ranking is determined using predicted results for ALL scheduled matches. Starting values for both teams are in that case continuously updated after each match.

    So now you see where the differences come from: the starting values of opponents are different in the probable ranking compared to what I use in determining minimum and maximum values. This results in differences like you just spotted for India. The differences should be small, but can not be denied.

    I will study on a more accurate method without too much complexity to determine the min/max values. I could f.i. use the predicted starting value for the opponent in a match instead of the static starting value from the current moment. I will apply this new method in next month's preview and spend a few words describing my approach then.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ah, I see now. Thanks Ed, for all this data crunching.

      Delete
    2. @Ed,
      Not sure what programming language you use, but it can be done quite easily using dynamic programming. At each point you need to have the minimum points and maximum points for each team so far in memory, and then when calculating the next match of Team A vs Team B, you use the minimum of A and B to get the new minimum points for both teams, and the maximum points to get the new maximum points.

      Delete
    3. That's not exactly accurate, since if there are 3 matches left B-C, A-B, B and C can't both win the first match, so A's maximum will be wrong, but it is a very easy to implement, will be close approximation, and for one month ahead will be exactly accurate in practice anyway...

      Delete
  3. These Guys at https://www.fctables.com/fifa-rankings/ are claiming to have the Live Fifa Ranking dashboard as of now. It updates in realtime. It would be work knowing how they are determining it? I think it would be valuable to see what your country is ranked as of today rather than every month's 20th.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That is certainly incorrect. It looks like they started with the new point values and then still applied the old formula. When you expand the matches for a team, you can see it's still using the old system.

      Delete
    2. It is clearly written in red letters, at the top of the page, that they are still working to the new formula and now it still doesn't work.

      Delete
  4. Looks like we may have a shared top ranking in September. If my calculations are right, Belgium will have 1729.25, and France 1729.12 points, but since FIFA rounds it to the nearest whole number, they will be tied on top.

    Germany and Sweden will swap places, as well as Peru and Italy, Austria and Tunisia, and Romania and Northern Ireland.

    In the top 50, Ukraine will make biggest progress (from 35 to 29), and Bosnia & Herzegovina should go from 39 to 34.

    Considering the number of matches played, the changes will be minimal.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I get the exact same numbers as you do with FRA and BEL so that's good news.

      Delete
    2. Me too. I obtained this numbers, hope they are accurate (but i have still to correct the result of the friendly Ecuador-Jamaica that is no more listed in the Fifa website). For the Conacacaf nations league qualifiers I use i=15. http://worldranking.altervista.org/FIFArank/rankingFIFA.htm

      Delete
    3. Jos,

      I've made a pointswise comparison (on 3 decimals) between your September 2018 FIFA ratings and mine. I found differences for only 12 teams:

      team - mine - yours
      Lebanon 1307,942 1307,750
      Oman 1287,053 1287,242
      OMA-LIB is not included by FIFA

      Suriname 1034,802 1036,000
      Dominica 953,198 952,000
      SUR-DMA is not included in your calc ?

      Mozambique 1175,329 1179,233
      MOZ played only 1 match 8 Sep against GNB (2:2) and lost 0,671 pts; starting value of MOZ = 1176

      Madagascar 1205,347 1210,237
      Senegal 1491,621 1491,709
      Lesotho 1069,996 1070,017
      MAD points seem not correct; they played against SEN and LES

      Bahrain 1181,184 1177,258
      Philippines 1172,077 1172,038
      China PR 1312,940 1312,905
      BHR points seem not correct; they played against PHI and CHN

      Iceland 1461,020 1462,367
      ??

      Delete
    4. Thanks for your feedback, Edgar. They are all mistakes in my computation, I will correct shortly.

      Delete