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Saturday, September 15, 2018

CONCACAF Nations League 2020 Q simulations (15 September)

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the qualfying phase of the CONCACAF Nations League 2020 -generated over 10.000 simulations- after the first match day (match Martinique - British Virgin Islands still to be played).
Simulation results from before the start of qualification can be found here.


The tiebreakers for the resulting ranking are known now, although still not officially published by CONCACAF, but from a Q&A by Canadian Soccer:
- points
- goal difference
- goals scored
- away goals scored
- fair play points
- drawing of lots
This partially explains the big scores some favourites realised already on the first match day.

In the first simulations I assumed that head-to-head was the first tiebreaker at equal points. Keep that in the back of your head when comparing these simulation results with the first set.

The 6 teams that played the Hexagonal to qualify for the World Cup 2018 -Mexico, Costa Rica, Panama, USA, Honduras and Trinidad and Tobago- are automatically placed in league A and are also qualified for the Gold Cup 2019.

The top 6 of the resulting qualifying ranking also qualify for league A. The next 16 teams (7-22) qualify for league B and the last 12 teams (23-34) qualify for league C. Guatemala does not play these qualifiers because they were suspended by FIFA at the time of the draw.

And last but not least: the top 10 of this ranking also qualifies for the Gold Cup 2019, which will be expanded to 16 teams.

The teams below are sorted by their average ranking position. Presented are the probabilities to qualify for the three leagues A, B and C and also for the Gold Cup 2019:

team   league A   league B   league C   Gold Cup
Canada 74,72% 25,12% 0,16% 89,23%
Haiti 60,41% 38,64% 0,95% 79,35%
Martinique 56,98% 41,94% 1,08% 79,29%
Jamaica 52,32% 46,80% 0,88% 76,63%
Curacao 52,69% 45,52% 1,79% 74,29%
Dominican Republic 43,44% 55,20% 1,36% 71,84%
--------------------------------
El Salvador 45,17% 53,62% 1,21% 71,15%
Belize 42,78% 56,06% 1,16% 71,05%
French Guyana 34,84% 63,48% 1,68% 65,52%
Nicaragua 29,21% 69,23% 1,56% 56,73%
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Guadeloupe 21,96% 74,28% 3,76% 45,04%
Cuba 27,02% 67,34% 5,64% 48,91%
St. Lucia 21,97% 73,07% 4,96% 46,73%
St. Kitts and Nevis 14,30% 76,64% 9,06% 32,81%
Suriname 4,69% 88,72% 6,59% 17,57%
Aruba 5,42% 82,76% 11,82% 17,97%
Guyana 5,70% 75,49% 18,81% 16,41%
Barbados 2,05% 80,62% 17,33% 8,85%
Dominica 0,55% 61,62% 37,83% 2,68%
Bahamas 0,51% 53,75% 45,74% 5,15%
St. Vincent and the Grenadines 0,67% 55,85% 43,48% 3,63%
Bermuda 0,79% 46,63% 52,58% 3,48%
--------------------------------
Grenada 0,41% 47,31% 52,28% 5,85%
Cayman Islands 0,29% 39,17% 60,54% 1,68%
Antigua and Barbuda 0,30% 35,29% 64,41% 1,89%
Bonaire 0,15% 28,06% 71,79% 1,41%
Puerto Rico 0,33% 26,89% 72,78% 1,43%
St. Martin 0,12% 19,26% 80,62% 0,80%
Turks and Caicos Islands 0,08% 20,80% 79,12% 1,23%
St. Maarten 0,05% 16,77% 83,18% 0,60%
US Virgin Islands 0,02% 9,85% 90,13% 0,26%
British Virgin Islands 0,02% 9,17% 90,81% 0,14%
Anguilla 0,02% 6,86% 93,12% 0,16%
Montserrat 0,02% 8,19% 91,79% 0,24%

Next some comparisons with the first simulation results (before qualification started):

Top 5 increase (%-points) in probability to qualify for league A
St. Lucia 241%
Aruba 76%
Dominican Republic 71%
Curacao 51%
Belize 42%

Top 5 decrease (%-points) in probability to qualify for league A
Antigua and Barbuda -98%
Grenada -95%
Bermuda -94%
Bonaire -94%
St. Vincent and the Grenadines -93%
Top 5 increase (%-points) in probability to qualify for league B
Aruba 83%
Barbados 38%
Jamaica 28%
St. Lucia 27%
Montserrat 26%

Top 5 decrease (%-points) in probability to qualify for league B
St. Maarten -53%
Antigua and Barbuda -43%
British Virgin Islands -30%
Canada -29%
US Virgin Islands -28%

Top 5 increase (%-points) in probability to qualify for league C
Antigua and Barbuda 169%
Bermuda 138%
Grenada 65%
St. Vincent and the Grenadines 57%
St. Maarten 31%

Top 5 decrease (%-points) in probability to qualify for league C
Dominican Republic -89%
Nicaragua -88%
Canada -86%
St. Lucia -86%
Belize -85%

Top 5 increase (%-points) in probability to qualify for Gold Cup
St. Lucia 200%
Aruba 117%
Dominican Republic 58%
Curacao 36%
Nicaragua 35%

Top 5 decrease (%-points) in probability to qualify for Gold Cup
Antigua and Barbuda -94%
Bermuda -88%
St. Vincent and the Grenadines -84%
Bonaire -79%
Puerto Rico -79%

About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

2 comments:

  1. Thanks Ed

    I have calculated some of the Gold Cup and League A probability changes as follows

    Top 5 Increase
    GC= St Lucia +31.1%, Dom Rep +26.4%, Curacao +19.7%, Belize +15.1%, Nicaragua +14.9%
    League A= Dom Rep 18.1%, Curacao 17.9%, St Lucia +15.5%, Belize +12.6%, Nicaragua +11.3%

    Top5 Decrease
    GC=Ant&Barb -27.2%, Bermuda -24.9%, StV and Gren -19.7%, Guyana -15.3%, Suriname -14.6%
    A=Ant&Barb -13.6%, Bermuda -13%, Guyana -11.2%, Jamaica -10.1%, French Guyana -9.3%

    Relative to the tables provided these figures exclude the likes of Bonaire whose probability of qualifying for League A dropped from 2.4% to 0.1% which to me is less significant than Jamaica dropping from 62.4% to 52.3% (presumably their 4-0 win over the Caymans was less than predicted).

    ReplyDelete
  2. You're welcome Anon, and I agree, differences in absolute percentages are more informative than percentage-points.

    I've done my simulations from before MD1 again but now with the correct tiebreakers applied and used these results in the following comparisons:

    Increase (in %) probability Gold Cup after MD1:
    St. Lucia +31%
    Dominican Republic +25%
    Curacao +23%
    Nicaragua +21%
    Belize +13%

    Increase (in %) probability league A after MD1:
    Curacao +22%
    Dominican Republic +17%
    St. Lucia +16%
    Canada +14%
    Nicaragua +11%

    Decrease (in %) probability Gold Cup after MD1:
    Bermuda -25%
    Antigua and Barbuda -23%
    Suriname -21%
    St. Vincent and the Grenadines -20%
    Guyana -17%

    Decrease (in %) probability league A after MD1:
    Suriname -13%
    Bermuda -13%
    Antigua and Barbuda -11%
    Guyana -11%
    St. Vincent and the Grenadines -9%

    Funny but indeed, a 4-0 win could well be detrimental to Jamaica's chances, given the big scores some other favourites like Haiti, Cuba and Canada realised against their pot 4 opponent. Jamaica's league A probability decreased with 8%, their Gold Cup chances with 5%.
    Biggest surprise -for me- was Curacao's 10-0 win over Grenada, being a pot 2 vs. pot 3 match. Was Curacao that good or Grenada that poor ? I read in the reports that until the 53rd minute it was only 3-0 and then Grenada apparently collapsed. Maybe only fitness for an hour ?

    ReplyDelete