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Friday, December 2, 2016

FIFA Ranking: December 2016 preview

Most likely this will also be the final preview, as the top 121 is already set.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 22 December.

Friday, November 18, 2016

FIFA Ranking: November 2016 final preview

5 matches left before the deadline. 4 group stage matches of the 2016 AFF Championship and a friendly: St. Kitts and Nevis vs. Estonia.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 24 November.

2018 World Cup simulations (18 November 2016)

The usual 10000 simulations, based on the current Elo ratings and including results up to 15 November 2016.

The play-offs are also simulated, with a slight twist: I used Elo ratings to seed the UEFA play-off draw.

UEFA Nations League update (18 November 2016)

The coefficient used for the first edition draw will be made up of:

2014 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2016 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2018 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting.

AFC MA Ranking update (18 November 2016)

We're almost there. 6 matches left - two in the AFC Champions League and the first four games of the AFF Championship.

AFC have published the entry manual for ACL and ACC. Going by the letter of the regulations, India and Maldives would be moved to the West, however I stick by my original approach and I expect Tajikistan to be moved to the East.

2019 AFC Asian Cup qualifiers: 3rd round seeding update

More info in this post.

The usual 10000 simulations - based on the current list of fixtures. Teams are sorted on average pot over the 10000 sims.

Friday, October 28, 2016

FIFA Ranking: November 2016 probable ranking

Next update: 18 November.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 24 November.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking. For minimum/maximum points see the preview.

FIFA Ranking: November 2016 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the November 2016 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

FIFA Ranking: November 2016 preview

Next update: 18 November.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 24 November. [Sim results at the end.] See also the probable ranking.

124 matches left.

2019 AFC Asian Cup qualifiers: 3rd round seeding simulations

The draw for the 3rd round will take place on 18 January 2017. This has been announced by Tajik FA and Kyrgyz FA. This is all very nice.

Regarding the seeding criteria, I only have a comment on Facebook (by the Tajikistan FA), stating FIFA ranking will be used. Even so, I have to assume it will be the January 2017 FIFA ranking.

Friday, October 21, 2016

2018 FIFA World Cup final draw seeding: Only one year left

Next update: In 2017. (After the publishing dates for 2017 are announced, with sims).

Assuming FIFA will again use the October 2017 ranking to determine the seeds, the 0.5 time frame (games played between 12 and 24 months ago relative to the release date) closed a couple of days ago. This is the final straight - the most important time frame.

AFC MA Ranking update (21 October 2016)

The 2016 edition of the MA ranking, set to be announced at the end of the AFC club competition season, will be used to determine the slot allocations for 2017 and 2018 seasons. This has been announced by the AFC Competitions Committee on 12 April 2016.

Friday, October 14, 2016

2018 World Cup simulations (14 October 2016)

The usual 10000 simulations, based on the current Elo ratings and including results up to 13 October 2016.

The play-offs are also simulated, with a slight twist: I used Elo ratings to seed the UEFA play-off draw.

FIFA Ranking: October 2016 final preview

2 matches left before the deadline - both friendlies (actually AFF Championship qualifiers).

FIFA will publish the ranking on 20 October.

UEFA Nations League update (14 October 2016)

The coefficient used for the first edition draw will be made up of:

2014 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2016 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2018 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting.

AFC MA Ranking update (14 October 2016)

The 2016 edition of the MA ranking, set to be announced at the end of the AFC club competition season, will be used to determine the slot allocations for 2017 and 2018 seasons. This has been announced by the AFC Competitions Committee on 12 April 2016.

Friday, October 7, 2016

2018 World Cup simulations

Finally found some time and energy today to write the code for the Russia 2018 simulations.

They are based on the current Elo ratings and include results up to 6 October 2016.

Friday, September 23, 2016

AFC MA Ranking update (23 September 2016)

The 2016 edition of the MA ranking, set to be announced at the end of the AFC club competition season, will be used to determine the slot allocations for 2017 and 2018 seasons. This had been announced by the AFC Competitions Committee on 12 April 2016.

FIFA Ranking: October 2016 probable ranking

FIFA will publish the ranking on 20 October.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking. For minimum/maximum points see the preview.

FIFA Ranking: October 2016 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the October 2016 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)


FIFA Ranking: October 2016 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 20 October.

There are 128 matches before the deadline. Also check the probable ranking.

Friday, September 16, 2016

AFCON 2017: Seeding for the final draw

I must be getting old or perhaps my interest regarding football is quickly diminishing. I forgot about the 2017 AFCON qualification - it finished at the start of September.

The draw will take place on 19 October 2016.

Friday, September 9, 2016

FIFA Ranking: September 2016 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 15 September.

No matches left.

Gibraltar enter the ranking with 0 points.

UEFA Nations League update (9 September 2016)

The coefficient used for the first edition draw will be made up of:

2014 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2016 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2018 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting.

Friday, July 15, 2016

FIFA Ranking: August 2016 preview

This will most likely be the final preview, as there are only two matches before the deadline.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 11 August.

Two matches left - both friendlies.

UEFA Nations League update (15 July 2016)

The coefficient used for the first edition draw will be made up of:

2014 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2016 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2018 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting.

With the EURO 2016 behind us, here's a look at team movements.

Friday, June 24, 2016

FIFA Ranking: July 2016 probable ranking (II)

FIFA will publish the ranking on 14 July.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking. For minimum/maximum points see the preview.

FIFA Ranking: July 2016 probable results (II)

Here are the probable results used for the July 2016 probable ranking (II). They are generated using the Elo Ratings

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;) 

FIFA Raking: July 2016 preview (II)

26 matches left. FIFA will publish the ranking on 14 July.

Friday, June 17, 2016

CAF seeding: FIFA's special ranking Pandora box

They did it again! Because Egypt rightly complained, FIFA will issue a new special ranking on 21 June.

Egypt fans rejoice, but there's more to this story, as the new ranking will impact more teams than Egypt and Tunisia.

Friday, June 10, 2016

FIFA Ranking: July 2016 probable ranking

FIFA will publish the ranking on 14 July.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking. For minimum/maximum points see the preview.

FIFA Ranking: July 2016 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the July 2016 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;) 

FIFA Raking: July 2016 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 14 July.

100 matches left before the deadline - most of them part of EURO 2016 or Copa América Centenario.

AFC MA Ranking update (10 June 2016)

The 2016 edition of the MA ranking, set to be announced at the end of the AFC club competition season, will be used to determine the slot allocations for 2017 and 2018 seasons. This had been announced by the AFC Competitions Committee on 12 April 2016.

Friday, May 13, 2016

2016 Copa América Centenario sims

The usual 10000 simulations.

First the average points in the group stage.

AFC MA Ranking update (13 May 2016)

AFC announced the MA ranking in November 2014, using the October 2014 FIFA ranking for the NT ranking part of the formula.

The 2016 edition of the MA ranking, set to be announced at the end of the AFC club competition season, will be used to determine the slot allocations for 2017 and 2018 seasons. This had been announced by the AFC Competitions Committee on 12 April 2016.

Friday, May 6, 2016

FIFA Ranking: June 2016 probable ranking

FIFA will publish the ranking on 2 June.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking. For minimum/maximum points + simulations see the preview.

FIFA Ranking: June 2016 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the June 2016 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

FIFA Ranking: June 2016 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 2 June. God willing, I will most likely post the final preview on 27 May.

45 matches. Friendlies all of them - with the exception of 4 matches of the OFC Nations Cup. Not 100% sure they will be included in the June ranking. Last time, FIFA chose to include all OFC Nations Cup in the same ranking.

Friday, April 29, 2016

AFC MA Ranking update (29 April 2016)

AFC announced the MA ranking in November 2014, using the October 2014 FIFA ranking for the NT ranking part of the formula.

The 2016 edition of the MA ranking, set to be announced at the end of the AFC club competition season, will be used to determine the slot allocations for 2017 and 2018 seasons. This had been announced by the AFC Competitions Committee on 12 April 2016.

Friday, April 22, 2016

2018 FIFA World Cup: CAF 3rd round seeding (22 April 2016)

More info in the first special ranking post.

New friendlies scheduled for Senegal, Egypt, Nigeria and Uganda. Only Nigeria scheduled smartly.

10000 simulations. No changes in the pots, but plenty in the scenarios (scroll down a a bit).

Friday, April 15, 2016

2018 FIFA World Cup: CAF 3rd round seeding sims by team

10000 simulations for each team and set of results.

Algeria, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Senegal - are safe in Pot 1 no matter what happens.
Burkina Faso, Zambia, Gabon, Libya - locked in Pot 4.

A couple of very important matches:

Friday, April 8, 2016

2018 FIFA World Cup: CAF 3rd round seeding reloaded

A comment on my blog made me aware of this article published by the Tunisian FA a couple of days ago.

Apparently there will be a special ranking published between 8 and 10 June 2016 that will be used to seed the teams for the third round draw.

FIFA Ranking: May 2016 final preview

No matches until the deadline, so this is the final preview. FIFA will publish the ranking on 5 May.

Of course, a very quiet month. Belgium have to thank Romanian journalists for keeping 2nd spot.

Friday, April 1, 2016

2018 FIFA World Cup: CAF 3rd round seeding

The draw will take place on 24 June 2016 and will most likely use the June 2016 FIFA ranking (published on 2 June 2016).

Currently, there are no matches scheduled involving African teams until the June 2016 FIFA ranking deadline. Of course, this will most likely change, but until then, here's a quick look at what happened last month.

FIFA Ranking: April 2016 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 7 April.

A lot of changes, including the top team, as Argentina return to the top after 6 months.

2018 FIFA World Cup: AFC 3rd round seeding

Looking at the December sims, only Korea DPR missed out, with China managing to squeeze through.

Assuming the April 2016 FIFA ranking will be used to seed the 12 teams, this is how the pots will look like:

Friday, March 4, 2016

FIFA Ranking: April 2016 probable ranking

FIFA will publish the ranking on 7 April.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking. For minimum/maximum points + simulations see the preview.


FIFA Ranking: April 2016 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the April 2016 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

FIFA Ranking: April 2016 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 7 April. I will most likely post updates, God willing, on 25 March and 1 April. I promise there will be no jokes related to the ranking :)

170 matches - only 55 of them are friendlies, so there are a lot of points to be gained.

Belgium's time at the top spot seems close to the end.

Friday, February 26, 2016

FIFA Ranking: March 2016 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 3 March.

1 match left. It's Egypt shooting themselves in the foot yet again. You have to admire their persistence. They have a friendly vs. Burkina Faso tomorrow. But who knows? - they might very well make it to Russia 2018 despite doing everything in their power to avoid Pot 1.

Friday, February 12, 2016

2018 FIFA World Cup CAF pot sims (12 February 2016)

The draw will take place on 24 June 2016 and will most likely use the June 2016 FIFA ranking (published on 2 June 2016).

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 10 February 2016.

This is how the pots look like (sorted by average pot over the 10000 simulations)

Friday, February 5, 2016

EURO 2016 sims (5 February 2016)

I actually ran the sims last Friday, but had no time to format the data.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula to run 10000 simulations.

FIFA Ranking: March 2016 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 3 March.

Apparently, FIFA have a mistake in the February ranking points for Congo DR and Burundi. The only explanation I have is the 15 Nov 2015 FIFA World Cup qualifier between these two teams was awarded to Congo DR, despite finishing 2 - 2 on the field. However, while this would solve the point differences, there has been no announcement on FIFA.com.

Ed found the announcement. However, the match still shows up as 2:2 on FIFA.com.

Friday, January 29, 2016

FIFA Ranking: February 2016 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 4 February.

6 matches left - all friendlies. 4 of them are actually the CHAN 2016 quarterfinals.

This is how the points and ranks could change for these 12 teams:

Friday, January 8, 2016

FIFA Ranking: February 2016 probable ranking

FIFA will publish the ranking on 4 February.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking. For minimum/maximum points see the preview.

FIFA Ranking: February 2016 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the February 2016 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings. I computed a separate CHAN Elo rating.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

FIFA Ranking: February 2016 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 4 February. The probable ranking is here.

46 matches, 2 of them continental qualifiers - the 2016 Copa America play-offs. Most of the remaining games will be part of CHAN 2016.