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Friday, March 4, 2016

FIFA Ranking: April 2016 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 7 April. I will most likely post updates, God willing, on 25 March and 1 April. I promise there will be no jokes related to the ranking :)

170 matches - only 55 of them are friendlies, so there are a lot of points to be gained.

Belgium's time at the top spot seems close to the end.



Argentina and Chile are really pushing the Belgians. The Albiceleste are the most likely to take their place, but Chile are hosting them on 24 March and with a win they could very well take the lead.

Top team over 10000 simulations (using ClubElo's expected goals formula):

71.65% - Argentina
26.88% - Chile
1.47% - Belgium

Two teams will drop to new lows:

Indonesia (at most 182 - 180 in February 2016)
New Caledonia (at most 190 - 188 in May 2006)

The min/max points are computed simply counting a team's fixtures as losses or wins.

The worst/best/average rank are the result of 10000 simulations. The table is sorted ascending on average rank.

Country - Min Points - Max Points - Worst Rank - Best Rank - Avg Rank


Argentina 1370 1532 5 1 1.32
Belgium 1352 1423 6 1 2.72
Chile 1281 1454 7 1 2.89
Germany 1240 1380 7 2 4.28
Brazil 1189 1375 10 2 5.19
Spain 1236 1358 7 2 5.46
Colombia 1140 1337 10 3 6.37
Portugal 1125 1223 11 6 8.16
Uruguay 1029 1232 14 6 9.67
Ecuador 986 1204 15 6 10.43
Austria 1006 1134 14 8 10.52
England 1011 1124 14 9 11.48
Switzerland 974 1078 16 9 12.60
Italy 939 1056 18 10 14.31
Hungary 905 965 22 14 16.63
Mexico 873 934 23 15 17.04
Turkey 878 983 25 13 17.12
Romania 871 971 25 14 17.90
Netherlands 868 989 26 12 17.94
Wales 818 946 32 14 21.68
Bosnia and Herzegovina 832 913 29 15 22.46
Ukraine 789 880 33 17 22.93
France 799 907 34 15 23.06
Croatia 784 900 35 16 23.82
Czech Republic 792 898 34 16 24.96
Russia 800 873 35 19 26.32
USA 776 843 35 21 26.92
Costa Rica 748 866 37 20 27.24
Slovakia 754 844 38 21 29.69
Northern Ireland 757 865 37 20 29.72
Poland 721 821 40 23 30.73
Algeria 686 813 43 24 30.99
Republic of Ireland 711 831 40 23 31.63
Côte d'Ivoire 699 758 41 30 34.65
Sweden 696 801 43 26 35.16
Cape Verde Islands 620 873 51 19 35.24
Iceland 684 764 44 30 37.97
Greece 660 743 45 32 38.27
Ghana 628 726 49 34 38.82
Denmark 638 733 49 33 40.00
Paraguay 622 826 53 23 41.72
Peru 604 761 56 30 41.89
Iran 575 672 60 37 42.88
Albania 610 702 54 35 45.02
Senegal 561 651 63 39 46.28
Tunisia 564 648 65 39 49.36
Trinidad and Tobago 556 614 65 43 50.36
Egypt 540 700 70 36 50.82
Scotland 545 687 70 37 52.08
Jamaica 563 696 66 36 52.22
Panama 532 635 70 41 52.65
Norway 549 628 69 42 53.94
Korea Republic 536 596 69 47 54.42
Finland 558 663 67 39 55.28
Nigeria 521 655 73 39 56.01
Serbia 544 637 70 41 56.08
Congo 510 666 74 38 57.21
Slovenia 538 615 71 43 57.71
Australia 467 601 79 47 57.91
Cameroon 522 626 73 41 58.37
Guinea 525 593 71 49 58.63
Japan 515 577 71 49 58.93
Congo DR 532 596 70 47 59.34
Saudi Arabia 483 631 76 41 62.69
United Arab Emirates 441 571 81 53 64.65
Uzbekistan 464 549 79 56 66.15
Haiti 474 642 79 41 66.28
Uganda 475 572 79 53 66.47
South Africa 474 573 79 52 67.91
Mali 463 551 82 58 68.60
Venezuela 443 664 84 39 70.82
Equatorial Guinea 416 648 89 40 72.01
Bolivia 440 683 84 38 72.90
Israel 467 557 82 57 73.41
Zambia 433 514 85 64 74.41
Belarus 440 514 85 65 74.87
Morocco 401 555 94 57 75.50
Benin 380 489 98 69 79.74
Cyprus 426 511 88 65 80.49
Bulgaria 413 508 90 66 81.13
Jordan 395 479 92 69 81.27
Qatar 384 471 97 71 81.91
Burkina Faso 375 516 98 65 82.63
Antigua and Barbuda 320 496 115 67 82.98
Rwanda 381 421 97 78 86.03
Gabon 381 408 97 81 88.82
China PR 325 423 109 78 89.44
Botswana 357 402 101 81 89.49
Honduras 356 427 104 77 89.81
Montenegro 350 448 105 72 89.87
Estonia 352 440 104 75 90.62
Canada 357 532 105 64 91.75
El Salvador 337 438 109 75 92.43
Faroe Islands 358 383 104 86 94.53
Togo 298 515 124 66 96.86
Oman 320 429 113 77 97.36
Guatemala 319 455 117 73 100.51
Iraq 281 387 129 86 101.73
Mozambique 312 468 118 71 102.37
Kenya 303 359 121 91 102.86
Malawi 302 447 122 74 103.52
Korea DPR 314 346 118 95 103.54
Libya 287 341 129 95 104.54
Angola 291 404 129 83 105.10
Armenia 294 361 127 91 107.99
Mauritania 299 352 124 94 108.38
Nicaragua 308 349 119 95 109.71
Thailand 295 365 128 91 109.95
Central African Republic 256 405 143 83 110.21
Liberia 258 322 136 100 110.30
Kyrgyzstan 301 340 123 96 111.37
Niger 296 425 127 80 111.60
Syria 267 393 136 86 112.33
Belize 307 307 121 106 113.52
Latvia 298 372 125 90 114.07
St. Kitts and Nevis 211 368 152 89 115.37
Georgia 280 308 132 105 117.40
Aruba 259 460 141 73 120.57
Tanzania 257 324 143 100 121.85
Kuwait 244 381 144 88 122.18
Sierra Leone 261 336 141 98 122.62
Burundi 254 325 143 100 122.86
Ethiopia 268 391 141 86 124.23
Palestine 237 369 145 89 124.30
Madagascar 243 325 145 98 124.75
Swaziland 257 325 144 99 125.12
Azerbaijan 269 297 139 113 125.30
Kazakhstan 258 320 142 103 126.04
Bahrain 239 351 146 94 127.35
Zimbabwe 235 304 147 107 128.21
Cuba 256 285 143 118 128.56
Chad 231 326 149 99 128.70
South Sudan 182 406 161 82 131.68
Lithuania 254 373 144 92 131.75
Sudan 233 494 148 69 132.03
FYR Macedonia 235 326 147 99 132.03
Namibia 241 292 146 117 132.89
Turkmenistan 241 277 145 122 134.54
Philippines 225 389 151 87 135.31
Vietnam 183 328 161 99 138.00
Hong Kong 234 303 148 107 139.53
Luxembourg 221 323 152 101 139.88
St. Lucia 238 238 148 133 141.07
Guyana 142 270 168 124 141.85
St. Vincent and the Grenadines 220 381 153 90 142.13
Guinea-Bissau 181 336 160 98 142.46
Barbados 178 284 161 118 143.95
Singapore 203 232 156 140 148.38
Lesotho 180 223 160 141 149.89
Puerto Rico 127 255 174 131 150.58
Tajikistan 149 330 168 99 150.81
Afghanistan 189 268 160 129 150.94
Dominican Republic 120 257 176 129 151.93
Lebanon 169 251 163 134 153.24
Gambia 122 256 175 130 153.66
Curaçao 138 252 170 132 156.18
Moldova 159 192 167 148 156.19
India 151 270 168 125 157.81
Maldives 144 209 168 147 159.17
Guam 151 239 168 137 160.28
Grenada 134 173 171 153 160.29
New Zealand 163 163 166 155 160.52
Bermuda 135 218 172 144 162.22
Mauritius 122 255 175 132 162.74
Malta 143 161 170 156 163.48
Myanmar 144 176 170 152 163.89
Liechtenstein 120 165 176 154 166.43
Dominica 84 137 180 162 168.59
American Samoa 128 128 173 164 168.71
Cook Islands 128 128 173 164 168.71
Samoa 128 128 173 164 168.71
São Tomé e Príncipe 98 295 178 116 169.60
Malaysia 115 200 176 149 170.03
Comoros 98 235 178 138 171.02
Timor-Leste 110 176 177 154 173.57
Yemen 98 146 179 160 173.62
Bangladesh 87 148 181 165 177.15
Nepal 80 80 182 178 178.69
Cambodia 68 103 185 173 180.56
Fiji 68 68 186 179 180.78
Laos 66 102 187 173 182.54
Seychelles 54 112 193 172 183.02
Indonesia 65 65 188 182 183.69
Chinese Taipei 54 113 192 172 183.90
Bhutan 64 90 189 176 183.95
Sri Lanka 58 58 191 184 186.40
Montserrat 57 57 192 185 187.40
Suriname 57 57 192 185 187.40
Solomon Islands 21 72 201 179 188.35
US Virgin Islands 44 108 197 173 188.41
Pakistan 54 54 194 187 189.69
New Caledonia 53 53 195 190 191.31
Vanuatu 47 47 196 191 192.31
Brunei Darussalam 37 37 198 194 194.40
Tahiti 35 35 199 195 195.40
Macau 33 59 199 184 196.05
Turks and Caicos Islands 33 33 200 196 196.55
British Virgin Islands 14 78 204 179 198.70
Cayman Islands 20 20 203 198 199.09
Papua New Guinea 4 55 204 187 199.92
Anguilla 0 128 205 165 200.34
San Marino 20 20 204 199 200.38
Djibouti 0 158 205 160 201.25
Andorra 5 24 204 198 201.81
Mongolia 4 4 205 202 203.28
Bahamas 0 0 206 204 204.61
Eritrea 0 0 206 204 204.61
Somalia 0 0 206 204 204.61
Tonga 0 0 206 204 204.61

23 comments:

  1. Hi Edgar.

    A few questions.

    Assuming Kuwait is unable to play its games due to FIFA ban.

    How many points would Korea Republic get to have since thats one of their opponents.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Depending on the outcome of their match vs. Lebanon:

      L: 558, D: 562, W: 570.

      Delete
    2. Many thanks Edgar.

      I'm really interested because the April FIFA rankings are very likely to be used for the 2018 WC AFC qualifiers Third Round on 12 April 2016.

      Going through the permutations myself but I'm hopeless and its giving me a headache ;_;

      Delete
    3. Hi Edgar again,

      It seems like Korea Republic will play Thailand instead of Kuwait because of the FIFA ban.

      https://twitter.com/thaifussballde/status/706812523962564608

      If this is the case, what are the points permutation for Korea Republic here.

      Its a friendly so less points on offer than a WC qualifier.

      Delete
    4. According to this article, KFA have asked FIFA if they will receive points for the friendly against Thailand and the forfeit vs. Kuwait.

      Delete
    5. Wowowow. Double points?

      What's the points scenarios in this case?

      This totally throws the AFC seedings out of whack.

      Delete
    6. If Korea Republic wins the qualifier against Lebanon, the friendly against Thailand and gets awarded a 3:0 win over Kuwait, they will have 588 points in April.
      Without the friendly and only two wins in the qualifiers they would have 596 points. So the friendly is detrimental to their points tally.

      On the sunny side: even with 588 points they will remain third in the Asian seeding order - assuming all other qualifiers go as elo predicts - so the extra friendly wouldn't harm their chances. Provided of course that they win the friendly.
      Without the awarded win over Kuwait (and wins in the Lebanon qualifier and the friendly) Korea Republic will have 579 points in April: still in front of Japan in the seeding order.

      So I wouldn't put it immediately as 'This totally throws the AFC seedings out of whack'. In fact it is: no change expected, if the Asian giants do what they are supposed to do: win.

      Delete
    7. At one point you had Korea Republic as predicted 2nd, but am I right in understanding that this was before Kuwait - Myanmar was decided, and therefore prediction based on Korea beating a higher ranked Kuwait than what will now be the case?

      Delete
    8. Exactly, that was on January 10th. You have a good memory and a good understanding of how the predictions work!

      The predictions based on elo ratings will change because of each non-predicted result and indeed inserting a new scheduled match can already result in different points totals in a predicted ranking. And because the match points for a match depend on the ranking position of the opponents also the ranking points of teams not even involved in these matches can change. Everything depends on and correlates with everything. And it's therefore always a snapshot.

      Delete
    9. With a awarded win 3-0 against Kuwait then South Korea will have 588 points , and Australia will have 601 points ?

      Delete
  2. If Kuwait continue not playing 2 game with LAO & KOR and then be forfeited 3-0, how do that affect to the teams of third round?? Any change??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The problem is, no one knows when the forfeit would be installed. It could take weeks and if thats the case the April FIFA rankings would already be out by then.

      Delete
    2. I think that will happen before deadline, because April ranking would likely be decided to use for the draw

      Delete
  3. Weird consequence of the terrorist attack: if Belgium-Portugal gets cancelled (likely), Belgium's chances of staying first are getting bigger. Not that it's the most important story today...

    ReplyDelete
  4. The elo-predicted results of the currently scheduled matches with Asian teams involved until the April ranking:

    2016-03-27 THA - KOR; Friendly; 2
    2016-03-29 PLE - TLS; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-29 UAE - KSA; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-29 AUS - JOR; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-29 TJK - KGZ; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-29 CHN - QAT; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-29 MDV - BHU; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-29 IND - TKM; World Cup qualifier; X
    2016-03-29 IRN - OMA; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-29 AFG - SIN; World Cup qualifier; X
    2016-03-29 JPN - SYR; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-29 IRQ - VIE; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-29 LIB - MYA; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-29 PHI - PRK; World Cup qualifier; 2
    2016-03-29 UZB - BHR; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-29 MAS - MAC; Friendly; 1

    Based on these results the following Asian countries qualify for the third round. Their points and positions in the predicted FIFA April ranking are:

    1 Iran 672 (41)
    2 Australia 601 (51)
    --
    3 Korea Republic 579 (57)
    4 Japan 577 (58)
    --
    5 United Arab Emirates 571 (61)
    6 Uzbekistan 549 (65)
    --
    7 Saudi Arabia 523 (68)
    8 Qatar 416 (83)
    --
    9 Korea DPR 346 (98)
    10 Iraq 333 (101)
    --
    11 Syria 316 (109)
    12 Thailand 297 (118)

    Mathematically qualified for the third round are
    as group winner:
    Qatar
    Korea Republic
    Thailand
    either as group winner or as one of 4 best runner-ups:
    Saudi Arabia
    Japan

    Iraq-Thailand was the only match that went against the elo prediction and ended in a draw. That's brought Iraq in a somewhat tricky situation, because even if they win their last qualifier against Vietnam they will need at least a draw in Australia-Jordan to keep Jordan behind them in the ranking of the group runner-ups. Still Iraq and Korea DPR are favourites for the other two best runner-up positions but they both have to win Tuesday.

    Group top spot fights Tuesday are United Arab Emirates - Saudi Arabia, Australia - Jordan and Japan - Syria while also in group 8 the matches with Uzbekistan and Korea DPR decide the top spot.

    It's strange that there is still no decision about the Kuwait-matches in group 7. If both matches will be awarded against them then Lebanon will most probably end second in the group but last among all runner-ups. Another possibility however is that all Kuwait-matches will be annulled afterwards: then Lebanon could even mingle in the 4 best runner-ups fight if several other results go their way.
    For Korea Republic's seeding the match against Kuwait is not important, as long as they win their friendly against Thailand they will be seeded above Japan in pot 2.

    United Arab Emirates - Saudi Arabia is an important match for the seeding of the Asian third round. Currently elo predicts a loss for Saudi Arabia.
    If Saudi Arabia wins they rocket to 631 points and spot 46 in the ranking and to pot 1 in the Asian seeding order, pushing Australia and Japan to a lower pot. United Arab Emirates will then also lose their best runner-up spot to China PR and miss their qualification to the third round altogether, providing China PR wins against Qatar. China would then have 423 points in April (pot 4).
    A draw in this match delivers Saudi Arabia 559 points on spot 63 and United Arab Emirates 521 points on spot 68, which effectively means a switch in seeding pots between the two.
    Assuming of course that all other predictions remain unchanged.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm looking forward to an exciting Tuesday matchday!! Any hope for Vietnam?? In which case will Vietnam advance in the next round ??

      Delete
    2. Vietnam will with a win over Iraq end at 10 points at spot 6 in the runner-up ranking if all other predictions stand. Oman could catch you in that ranking with 11 pts if they win against Iran, so Oman should not win to optimize your chances.

      Then for qualification you will need at least 2 out of the next 4 things to happen:
      - China PR to not win against Qatar (they end on max. 9 pts)
      - Korea DPR to lose (they end on 10 pts). Korea DPR has +3 GD now in that ranking
      - Jordan to lose (they end on 10 pts). Jordan has +6 GD now in that ranking
      - UAE to lose (they end on 10 pts). UAE has +12 GD now in that ranking
      Vietnam has +0 goal difference now in that ranking.

      So it's easy :D : Vietnam must win to start with, then Oman should not win against Iran (totally possible btw) and at least 2 out of the 4 mentioned things should happen, and then it will still all come down to GD. I think you shouldn't get your hopes too high.
      On the sunny side: Vietnam is already qualified for the AFC Nations Cup 2019 third round of qualifying.

      Delete
    3. Thank you. Chance for Vietnam may be no more than 5%

      Delete
  5. The following Asian countries have qualified for the third round of WC qualification. Their points in the predicted FIFA April ranking and the resulting seeding pots are:

    1 Iran 672
    2 Australia 601
    --
    3 Korea Republic 579
    4 Japan 577
    --
    5 Saudi Arabia 559
    6 Uzbekistan 549
    --
    7 United Arab Emirates 521
    8 China PR 423
    --
    9 Qatar 416
    10 Iraq 333
    --
    11 Syria 316
    12 Thailand 297

    Only surprise at the end of the day was the last gasp win of the Philippines against Korea DPR. This gave China PR the ultimate chance to become one of the four best runner-ups and they grabbed it with a good win over Qatar.

    The decision about the Kuwait-matches doesn't really matter anymore:
    - if both matches get awarded against Kuwait, then Lebanon is the worst runner-up.
    - if all Kuwait matches get annulled after all then Lebanon will be 5th best runner-up.
    - and purely hypothetical: if for some reason Kuwait is allowed to play both matches and they win both then Kuwait is 5th best runner-up.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Mr. ED
      thanks, great job
      what is the world ranking for the 12th teams AFC that qualified to third round?
      Regards'

      Delete
    2. Saudi Arabia missed chance to go to pot 1 and will probably face some strong teams like Australia, Japan or Korea in their group. That may be terrible for them!!

      Delete
    3. I don't think they will be too concerned. With this pot-distribution of 2 teams per pot it is almost inevitable to land in a group with some strong opposition. Even if you are in pot 1.

      Delete
  6. I don't know if I understand your question correctly...

    April ranking for Asian countries
    42 Iran
    50 Australia
    56 Korea Republic
    57 Japan
    60 Saudi Arabia
    66 Uzbekistan
    68 United Arab Emirates
    81 China PR
    (82 Jordan)
    83 Qatar
    (98 Oman)
    (99 Kyrgyzstan)
    104 Iraq
    109 Syria
    (111 Korea DPR)
    (116 Philippines)
    119 Thailand
    etc.

    ReplyDelete