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Friday, March 4, 2016

FIFA Ranking: April 2016 probable ranking

FIFA will publish the ranking on 7 April.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking. For minimum/maximum points + simulations see the preview.




Belgium have only 1.47% chance of remaining on top of the pile. More info in the preview.

Two teams will drop to new lows:

Indonesia (at most 182 - 180 in February 2016)
New Caledonia (at most 190 - 188 in May 2006)

Probable April 2016 rank - Team - Probable April 2016 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points


1 Argentina 1467 1 10
2 Belgium 1423 -1 -83
3 Chile 1383 2 76
4 Germany 1380 0 25
5 Brazil 1375 1 121
6 Colombia 1337 2 122
7 Spain 1317 -4 -57
8 Portugal 1163 -1 -71
9 Austria 1134 1 39
10 Uruguay 1120 1 38
11 Ecuador 1084 2 45
12 England 1066 -3 -46
13 Switzerland 1044 -1 -26
14 Italy 959 0 -40
15 Mexico 934 7 32
16 Turkey 927 4 -16
17 Hungary 925 2 -26
18 Romania 898 -2 -92
19 Netherlands 887 -4 -110
20 Wales 882 -3 -102
21 Ukraine 880 6 35
22 France 870 2 -1
23 Costa Rica 866 10 82
24 Croatia 856 -6 -109
25 Bosnia and Herzegovina 851 -4 -66
26 Czech Republic 843 -1 -18
26 USA 843 4 51
28 Poland 821 3 32
28 Russia 821 -5 -71
30 Algeria 813 7 70
31 Cape Verde Islands 789 0 0
31 Republic of Ireland 789 -2 -20
33 Slovakia 788 -7 -70
34 Northern Ireland 773 -6 -60
35 Côte d'Ivoire 758 1 14
36 Sweden 748 -2 -21
37 Ghana 726 4 70
38 Greece 711 1 -7
39 Denmark 702 1 -4
40 Iceland 698 -2 -43
41 Iran 672 3 45
42 Peru 666 0 20
43 Senegal 651 5 48
44 Panama 635 11 59
45 Albania 632 -10 -122
46 Paraguay 622 -3 -20
47 Tunisia 620 0 11
48 Trinidad and Tobago 614 1 16
49 Nigeria 610 13 63
50 Norway 605 1 11
51 Australia 601 16 95
52 Korea Republic 596 5 30
53 Guinea 593 10 53
54 Cameroon 591 7 40
55 Serbia 581 -5 -15
56 Japan 577 0 2
56 Slovenia 577 -2 0
58 Congo DR 575 0 10
59 United Arab Emirates 571 5 54
60 Scotland 568 -15 -49
61 Egypt 567 -8 -22
62 Jamaica 563 -10 -30
63 Finland 558 -17 -57
64 Uzbekistan 549 10 65
65 Uganda 539 2 33
66 Congo 536 -7 -28
67 Saudi Arabia 523 -7 -39
68 Mali 522 5 32
69 South Africa 490 1 -10
70 Zambia 487 8 30
71 Haiti 474 -7 -43
72 Israel 467 -5 -39
73 Belarus 465 -9 -52
74 Equatorial Guinea 455 2 -24
75 Benin 452 2 -12
76 Venezuela 443 -1 -37
77 Bolivia 440 -5 -59
78 Cyprus 426 1 -16
78 Morocco 426 3 2
80 China PR 423 16 72
81 Bulgaria 421 -11 -79
81 Rwanda 421 4 24
83 Jordan 418 -1 4
84 Qatar 416 -4 -25
85 Antigua and Barbuda 413 5 40
86 Honduras 403 3 28
87 Botswana 402 5 32
88 Gabon 399 -5 -13
89 Burkina Faso 398 -3 6
90 Iraq 387 1 16
91 St. Kitts and Nevis 368 30 84
92 Estonia 366 -4 -10
92 Faroe Islands 366 1 9
94 Montenegro 365 -10 -44
95 Kenya 359 8 28
96 Canada 357 -9 -28
97 El Salvador 354 2 14
98 Korea DPR 346 -4 -10
98 Oman 346 -1 4
100 Libya 341 7 22
101 Togo 334 0 1
102 Liberia 322 -1 -11
103 Guatemala 319 -8 -35
104 Armenia 316 12 20
105 Mozambique 312 -5 -25
106 Angola 310 3 4
107 Georgia 308 15 25
107 Nicaragua 308 3 6
109 Belize 307 10 21
109 Mauritania 307 -3 -13
111 Burundi 302 18 29
111 Malawi 302 -7 -27
111 Tanzania 302 14 26
114 Kyrgyzstan 301 -9 -23
115 Latvia 298 -17 -43
115 Madagascar 298 15 26
117 Niger 296 -9 -16
118 Thailand 295 0 7
119 Syria 293 4 14
120 Cuba 285 15 22
121 Central African Republic 281 -11 -21
121 Zimbabwe 281 10 10
123 Kuwait 279 10 14
124 Azerbaijan 278 -12 -22
125 Palestine 273 -8 -17
125 Sierra Leone 273 -10 -24
127 Bahrain 271 5 2
128 Kazakhstan 269 -3 -7
128 Swaziland 269 -4 -8
130 Ethiopia 268 -10 -17
131 Aruba 259 -18 -39
132 Lithuania 254 -4 -20
133 Turkmenistan 253 -20 -45
134 Namibia 250 -1 -15
135 FYR Macedonia 249 3 -8
136 Chad 246 -9 -29
137 St. Lucia 238 7 22
138 Hong Kong 234 1 -19
139 Sudan 233 -4 -30
140 Barbados 231 3 4
141 Vietnam 228 5 18
142 Guyana 227 14 62
143 Philippines 225 -8 -38
144 Tajikistan 224 6 31
145 Lesotho 223 8 37
146 Luxembourg 221 -4 -12
147 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 220 -6 -23
148 South Sudan 219 -8 -27
149 Dominican Republic 214 10 64
150 Singapore 213 -2 15
151 Puerto Rico 212 19 85
152 Gambia 211 12 76
153 Afghanistan 196 -2 4
154 Lebanon 190 -9 -25
155 Guinea-Bissau 181 -8 -26
155 Moldova 181 1 16
157 Grenada 173 4 34
158 India 165 2 23
158 Maldives 165 0 4
160 New Zealand 163 -11 -33
161 Curaçao 156 -10 -36
161 Guam 156 -7 -13
163 Malta 149 -2 10
164 Myanmar 144 -10 -25
165 Dominica 137 11 28
166 Bermuda 135 -2 0
166 Liechtenstein 135 -3 -2
168 American Samoa 128 -1 0
168 Cook Islands 128 -1 0
168 Samoa 128 -1 0
171 Malaysia 126 -5 -3
172 Mauritius 122 0 2
173 Timor-Leste 110 -3 -17
174 Comoros 98 -1 -21
174 São Tomé e Príncipe 98 0 -19
174 Yemen 98 1 -14
177 Bangladesh 87 0 -13
178 Nepal 80 7 10
179 Solomon Islands 72 21 46
180 Cambodia 68 3 -11
180 Fiji 68 6 0
182 Laos 66 -4 -22
183 Indonesia 65 -5 -23
184 Bhutan 64 9 15
185 Chinese Taipei 60 -4 -20
186 Sri Lanka 58 3 -4
187 Montserrat 57 0 -10
187 Suriname 57 3 0
189 Pakistan 54 -2 -13
189 Seychelles 54 2 -2
191 New Caledonia 53 -10 -27
192 Vanuatu 47 2 0
193 US Virgin Islands 44 -15 -44
194 Brunei Darussalam 37 -10 -37
195 Tahiti 35 -4 -21
196 Macau 33 -1 -11
196 Turks and Caicos Islands 33 1 0
198 Cayman Islands 20 -2 -22
198 San Marino 20 0 -8
200 British Virgin Islands 14 -1 -13
201 Andorra 5 0 -1
202 Mongolia 4 0 0
202 Papua New Guinea 4 0 0
204 Anguilla 0 0 0
204 Bahamas 0 0 0
204 Djibouti 0 0 0
204 Eritrea 0 0 0
204 Somalia 0 0 0
204 Tonga 0 0 0

22 comments:

  1. How many points would Uruguay have if they win both of their qualifying games later this month?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Here's a couple interesting observations pertaining to AFC - Australia and Saudi Arabia have a great chance to sneak into the Top Seeded sides for the April draw of AFC qualifying. If Australia do indeed win both games later this month they will have pulled off a dramatic last minute top seeded spot next to Iran, with 601 pts. Right now they're ranked 6th in Asia but they can soar to 2nd.

    Also, should they fail to get two wins, KSA can grab 2nd behind Iran with two wins which would take them to 631 points.

    ReplyDelete
  3. fifa takes morer biberies from uae--ksa therfore they have agood rank

    ReplyDelete
  4. if Morocco win both games vs Cape Verde Islands, how many points will Morocco get?

    ReplyDelete
  5. It appears that Kuwait have had upcoming WCQ matches (vs Laos and South Korea) postponed.

    Elsewhere I have read that they have forfeited them 3-0.

    South Korea now has lined up a friendly with Thailand on 27th March
    http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/culturesports/2016/03/11/12/0702000000AEN20160311002451315F.html

    How will this affect South Korea's April 2016 ranking points, and hence their pot ranking for the next stage of World Cup Qualifying ??

    ReplyDelete
  6. For an exploration of the consequences of these changes for Korea Republic see here

    ReplyDelete
  7. hello need to know Indian point they can beat Turkmenistan

    ReplyDelete
  8. If Malaysia win vs Macau Friendly Tonight, How many points for malaysia

    ReplyDelete
  9. After Egypt draw in Nigeria and win in Egypt, can you tell me the possible ranking and points !? because based on this ranking you assume Egypt will lose away and draw at home which did't happen.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. See here for the predicted June ranking.

      Delete
  10. How to calculate about australia 506 increase to 610 point

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. aus will avoid iran in next round. most likely will be paired with south korea in 3rd rnd

      Delete
  11. After two back to back wins against higher ranked nations where will Scotland be in the rankings and how many points?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Scotland will gain 70 points and 5 places. In April they will have 687 points on spot 40.

      Delete
  12. How will the order of Saudi Arabia in June ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. June is still a long way ahead and the FIFA ranking won't matter for Saudi Arabia for quite some time.

      Delete