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Thursday, August 29, 2019

FIFA ranking: September 2019 preview results

Here are the scheduled matches counting for the FIFA September 2019 ranking with FIFA's Expected Home Win Probability (We) in % and the points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team. In cases where matches can go to PSO, also the points exchanged when the home team wins (PSO-W) or loses (PSO-L) the penalty shoot-out are given.

The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my inclusion-method.

FIFA ranking: September 2019 preview

Here are the minimum and maximum points for each team in the September 2019 ranking. FIFA will publish the ranking on September 19th.

Minimum and maximum points per team are determined with a small piece of software which calculates per match the minimum and maximum possible points for each participating team, given the minimum and maximum starting values of both teams before the match.

FIFA ranking: September 2019 probable results

Here are the probable results of all currently scheduled matches up to and including September 10th, used to calculate the September 2019 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. 
Also the already played matches since July 22nd, (probably) counting for the September ranking, are presented.

FIFA ranking: September 2019 probable ranking

In the second half of July and the month of August relatively few important matches were played. That's why FIFA skips the publication of the August ranking and the next (September) ranking will be published after the next International Match Window.
After July 21st until now the remainder of the Indian Ocean Islands Games 2019, the West Asian Championship 2019 and the next round of qualifiers for the African Nations Championship 2020 were played, beside a few friendlies.

Wednesday, August 7, 2019

CAF qualification World Cup 2022 simulations (August 2019)

Next month also starts the African qualification for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar with a first round, consisting of 14 home-and-away play-offs between the 28 lowest ranked African teams. The draw was July 29th.
The fourteen winners join the other 26 African teams to form 10 groups of 4 teams in the second round, a double round robin group stage. First matchdays of the second round will be in the March-window next year. The exact date for the draw of the group stage is not yet known. That will decide which FIFA-ranking will be used to seed the teams. FIFA will probably not publish a ranking in January or February next year, so for now I assume the December 2019 ranking will be used for seeding the draw for the group stage.

Tuesday, August 6, 2019

AFC qualification World Cup 2022 simulations (August 2019)

Next month starts the second round in Asian qualification for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar. After a first round of 6 play-offs between the 12 lowest ranked Asian teams in June, the six winners joined the other 34 Asian teams to form 8 groups of 5 teams in this second round, a double round robin group stage. The groups were drawn on July 17th.