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Sunday, August 16, 2020

FIFA ranking: September 2020 preview results

Here are the scheduled matches counting for the FIFA September 2020 ranking with FIFA's Expected Home Win Probability (We) in % and the points exchanged in case of Win, Draw or Loss of the home team. In cases where matches can go to PSO, also the points exchanged when the home team wins (PSO-W) or loses (PSO-L) the penalty shoot-out are given.

The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my inclusion-method.

FIFA ranking: September 2020 preview

Here are the minimum and maximum points for each team in the September 2020 ranking. FIFA will publish the ranking on September 17th.

Minimum and maximum points per team are determined with a small piece of software which calculates per match the minimum and maximum possible points for each participating team, given the minimum and maximum starting values of both teams before the match.

FIFA ranking: September 2020 probable results

Here are the probable results of all currently scheduled matches up to and including September 13th, used to calculate the September 2020 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings. 


The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my inclusion-method. Also the Expected Home Win Probability (We) according to elo is given for each match in %.

FIFA ranking: September 2020 probable ranking

After a 9 months absence of competitive international football (and a half year of any NT football) it seems that the upcoming September FIFA-window will finally see the cautious return of international football: UEFA will start with the UEFA Nations League 2020/21 group matches as scheduled.

CONCACAF published three weeks ago a new format for their World Cup qualification scheduled to start in the October window. Coming wednesday the draw will be performed in Zurich.
AFC on the other hand last week decided to postpone their already rescheduled WC-qualifiers (from March and June to October and November) again to March 2021. A reformatting of their current qualification process seems inevitable with these delays.
OFC published last month a proposal for their WC qualifying format, scheduled to start in March 2021, but not a word about the postponed OFC Nations Cup 2020.
CONMEBOL and CAF were until now also very silent about the start of their WC qualifying campaigns. If they start this year, it will not be earlier than October though.