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Friday, September 29, 2017

FIFA Ranking: October 2017 preview

Had no time last week, so here it goes. 104 matches. Very important ranking for the World Cup, as FIFA will use it to determine all the pots, not just Pot 1.

My apologies to fans of teams already eliminated, but we'll focus first on those teams still in the running.


When using the table below, make sure you also check the fixtures, because it's impossible for all teams to get two wins (Portugal have to play Switzerland, Germany have to play Northern Ireland and so on).

W - win, D - draw, L - loss

Order of columns:

FIFA trigramme - LL - LD - LW - DL - DD - DW - WL - WD - WW

GER 1488 1506 1542 1518 1536 1572 1578 1595 1631
BRA 1453 1497 1584 1488 1532 1619 1558 1602 1689
POR 1314 1348 1417 1324 1358 1427 1344 1378 1446
ARG 1274 1315 1398 1321 1362 1445 1415 1456 1539
CHI 1104 1132 1187 1127 1155 1210 1173 1201 1256
BEL 1090 1126 1197 1135 1171 1242 1225 1261 1333
PER 1063 1111 1206 1112 1160 1255 1210 1258 1353
POL 1063 1113 1214 1099 1150 1250 1172 1222 1323
COL 1052 1095 1180 1089 1131 1217 1162 1205 1290
FRA 1034 1062 1117 1070 1098 1153 1143 1171 1226
MEX 1034 1045 1066 1042 1053 1075 1060 1070 1092
ESP 1031 1060 1118 1064 1093 1152 1130 1160 1218
SUI 1004 1065 1186 1047 1108 1230 1134 1195 1317
WAL 970 1028 1146 1004 1063 1180 1072 1131 1249
ENG 949 968 1008 985 1004 1044 1056 1076 1116
ITA 942 975 1042 966 999 1066 1014 1047 1114
CRC 900 915 947 914 929 961 942 958 989
NIR 889 924 994 944 979 1049 1054 1089 1159
URU 885 924 1001 918 957 1034 984 1023 1100
CRO 881 917 990 904 940 1013 951 987 1059
SVK 838 854 885 887 902 933 984 1000 1031
IRN 829 829 829 829 829 829 829 829 829
DEN 823 867 954 868 912 999 958 1001 1089
SWE 799 841 926 823 865 950 872 914 999
USA 796 807 829 811 822 845 843 854 876
ISL 782 792 813 817 828 848 889 899 920
TUR 776 807 869 825 856 918 922 953 1016
EGY 774 774 774 789 789 789 818 818 818
TUN 773 773 773 793 793 793 834 834 834
UKR 772 828 941 787 844 956 818 875 987
SEN 758 758 758 777 777 777 815 815 815
NED 729 769 848 756 796 876 812 852 931
BUL 715 750 820 783 818 888 919 954 1024
IRL 690 737 829 703 749 842 728 774 866
COD 688 688 688 709 709 709 751 751 751
JPN 676 689 715 684 697 722 698 711 737
SRB 668 695 748 707 734 787 786 813 866
KOR 653 653 653 653 653 653 653 653 653
MNE 640 700 820 694 754 874 802 862 982
BFA 639 639 639 654 654 654 684 684 684
BIH 636 672 744 697 732 804 817 853 925
GHA 633 633 633 651 651 651 688 688 688
MAR 630 630 630 647 647 647 681 681 681
AUS 626 648 692 648 670 714 692 714 758
NGA 624 624 624 656 656 656 721 721 721
PAR 621 651 711 664 694 754 750 780 840
SCO 608 653 742 664 709 798 776 821 910
ECU 608 657 755 655 704 802 751 800 898
PAN 606 627 670 626 648 690 667 688 730
CIV 580 580 580 600 600 600 641 641 641
KSA 576 576 576 576 576 576 576 576 576
CPV 568 568 568 628 628 628 746 746 746
AUT 565 579 606 611 625 653 704 718 745
GRE 515 530 561 555 570 601 635 651 682
ALB 498 548 649 550 600 701 654 704 805
UGA 483 483 483 503 503 503 542 542 542
SVN 481 524 611 532 575 662 634 677 763
MLI 462 462 462 488 488 488 539 539 539
ZAM 450 450 450 470 470 470 509 509 509
HON 439 457 493 456 474 510 491 509 545
SYR 426 450 499 450 475 524 499 524 573
CYP 409 463 570 451 505 612 535 589 696
RSA 409 409 409 430 430 430 473 473 473
GAB 403 403 403 431 431 431 487 487 487
TRI 350 373 419 375 398 443 424 447 493
NZL 256 256 256 268 268 268 290 290 290

Now, back to the regular program.

Based on 10000 simulations

Country - Worst ranking - Best ranking - Average ranking


Brazil 3 1 1.375
Germany 3 1 1.651
Portugal 6 3 3.575
Argentina 8 1 3.584
Belgium 16 4 6.808
Poland 17 4 6.917
Spain 19 5 8.837
France 20 5 9.296
Colombia 19 4 9.467
Peru 19 3 10.170
Chile 16 5 10.241
Wales 23 5 11.132
Switzerland 21 4 11.149
England 25 8 14.200
Mexico 19 11 15.100
Italy 24 9 15.155
Uruguay 28 10 17.855
Denmark 34 11 19.967
Northern Ireland 28 6 20.148
Croatia 29 12 20.206
Costa Rica 27 15 20.945
Slovakia 31 13 22.516
Turkey 38 14 23.925
Sweden 37 16 24.540
Ukraine 38 16 24.580
Netherlands 44 19 27.584
USA 38 22 27.640
Iran 36 24 28.945
Iceland 38 19 29.370
Bulgaria 48 14 29.715
Egypt 39 26 31.242
Tunisia 40 25 33.094
Senegal 41 27 33.847
Serbia 53 23 34.886
Republic of Ireland 49 23 36.826
Bosnia and Herzegovina 59 19 37.017
Scotland 65 20 38.826
Japan 51 34 40.007
Montenegro 60 17 40.324
Congo DR 52 33 41.518
Cameroon 53 35 43.028
Australia 61 32 43.541
Nigeria 62 34 43.608
Paraguay 63 25 44.921
Ecuador 66 22 44.925
Romania 66 28 47.184
Morocco 60 41 48.244
Bolivia 64 20 49.002
Austria 69 33 50.030
Korea Republic 59 44 50.204
Burkina Faso 60 40 50.764
Ghana 61 39 51.223
Hungary 70 29 51.695
Panama 65 34 51.728
Czech Republic 68 38 52.961
Cape Verde Islands 69 33 52.985
China PR 63 50 56.586
Greece 74 40 57.316
Jamaica 66 52 58.598
Guinea 71 46 58.798
Venezuela 78 33 59.614
Côte d'Ivoire 68 47 59.683
Haiti 67 42 59.757
Slovenia 80 32 63.529
Saudi Arabia 69 59 64.016
Albania 78 30 65.719
Algeria 74 49 65.855
Russia 71 62 66.271
Norway 91 52 68.363
Uganda 80 64 70.669
Mali 83 66 72.726
United Arab Emirates 80 68 73.774
Syria 88 61 75.887
Uzbekistan 83 71 76.421
Honduras 86 65 76.707
Estonia 95 66 77.322
Cyprus 92 42 77.844
Zambia 85 67 77.852
Libya 92 66 79.122
South Africa 92 71 79.752
Finland 99 42 80.639
Armenia 100 53 80.941
Belarus 95 51 82.506
Israel 98 59 82.845
Iraq 91 76 83.145
Benin 90 79 84.259
Palestine 94 80 85.532
Gabon 94 70 85.912
Guinea-Bissau 94 84 88.334
Canada 97 87 91.422
Curaçao 98 88 92.506
Faroe Islands 106 65 92.782
Congo 100 70 93.263
Qatar 99 89 93.547
Trinidad and Tobago 107 70 94.925
Mauritania 101 93 95.791
Luxembourg 109 59 96.236
Georgia 112 65 97.027
FYR Macedonia 110 68 98.529
El Salvador 104 95 99.230
Kenya 106 87 99.857
Sierra Leone 105 96 100.230
India 114 100 103.683
Madagascar 109 100 104.411
Azerbaijan 121 64 104.928
Zimbabwe 110 102 105.520
Niger 111 103 106.520
Lebanon 124 97 108.909
Yemen 125 95 109.087
Nicaragua 113 107 109.284
St. Kitts and Nevis 113 107 109.284
Mozambique 117 109 112.637
Jordan 122 109 113.804
Oman 125 109 114.024
Malawi 121 112 116.852
Bahrain 131 112 117.719
Rwanda 122 113 118.041
Philippines 129 107 118.174
Turkmenistan 138 112 119.718
Central African Republic 126 116 120.436
Kyrgyz Republic 133 106 120.537
Korea DPR 139 105 120.684
Vietnam 135 117 122.673
New Zealand 129 112 123.240
Togo 128 118 123.262
Kazakhstan 149 75 123.298
Suriname 132 122 127.082
Tajikistan 144 121 127.457
Guatemala 134 125 129.039
Burundi 135 126 130.082
Namibia 135 126 130.082
Tanzania 137 128 132.347
Latvia 157 112 133.353
Liberia 138 130 133.592
Antigua and Barbuda 139 131 134.592
Lithuania 157 80 134.825
Angola 141 133 136.341
Comoros 142 134 137.341
Thailand 146 133 138.498
Swaziland 143 135 138.512
Equatorial Guinea 146 137 141.099
Hong Kong 157 136 141.865
Sudan 148 140 142.823
Andorra 151 89 143.253
Lesotho 152 142 146.011
Tahiti 153 144 147.943
Ethiopia 156 141 148.484
Myanmar 159 138 149.123
Chad 154 145 149.225
Botswana 158 143 149.831
New Caledonia 155 146 150.225
Maldives 160 121 150.552
Solomon Islands 157 148 151.774
South Sudan 158 149 152.831
Afghanistan 160 136 153.061
Chinese Taipei 165 140 155.439
Moldova 174 106 156.835
Grenada 161 156 157.905
Mauritius 162 157 158.905
Papua New Guinea 165 158 160.613
Barbados 166 159 161.837
Laos 168 154 162.014
Belize 167 161 163.159
Dominican Republic 169 163 164.651
Gambia 171 164 165.766
Guyana 172 165 167.152
Indonesia 172 165 167.152
Kosovo 186 77 168.046
Malaysia 177 146 168.849
Puerto Rico 174 167 169.499
Dominica 176 169 170.957
Cambodia 176 154 171.203
Singapore 177 158 171.410
St. Vincent and the Grenadines 178 172 173.611
St. Lucia 179 174 175.363
Nepal 181 158 175.792
Fiji 180 175 176.367
Liechtenstein 189 124 176.398
São Tomé e Príncipe 181 176 177.369
Malta 194 113 179.069
Aruba 183 178 179.216
Cuba 184 179 180.481
Bermuda 186 180 181.889
Macau 188 158 182.779
Brunei Darussalam 187 182 184.013
Djibouti 188 183 185.013
Kuwait 189 185 186.310
Seychelles 191 187 187.874
Vanuatu 191 187 187.874
Bhutan 193 145 189.795
Guam 194 190 190.873
Timor-Leste 195 192 192.292
American Samoa 196 193 193.468
Cook Islands 196 193 193.468
Samoa 196 193 193.468
Mongolia 199 186 196.186
Bangladesh 199 196 196.596
Sri Lanka 200 198 198.398
Gibraltar 206 113 198.528
US Virgin Islands 201 199 199.398
Montserrat 202 200 200.398
Pakistan 203 201 201.398
Cayman Islands 204 202 202.398
Turks and Caicos Islands 204 202 202.398
San Marino 205 154 202.621
British Virgin Islands 206 205 205.303
Anguilla 207 206 206.303
Bahamas 207 206 206.303
Eritrea 207 206 206.303
Somalia 207 206 206.303
Tonga 207 206 206.303

The min/max points are based on the fixtures list, not on the sims.

September Rank - Country - September Points - October Min Points - October Max Points


1 Germany 1606 1488 1631
2 Brazil 1590 1453 1689
3 Portugal 1386 1314 1446
4 Argentina 1325 1274 1539
5 Belgium 1265 1090 1333
6 Poland 1250 1063 1323
7 Switzerland 1210 1004 1317
8 France 1208 1034 1226
9 Chile 1195 1104 1256
10 Colombia 1191 1052 1290
11 Spain 1184 1031 1218
12 Peru 1103 1063 1353
13 Wales 1089 970 1249
14 Mexico 1085 1034 1092
15 England 1056 949 1116
16 Uruguay 1043 885 1100
17 Italy 1035 942 1114
18 Croatia 977 881 1059
19 Slovakia 967 838 1031
20 Northern Ireland 945 889 1159
21 Costa Rica 936 900 989
22 Iceland 931 782 920
23 Sweden 918 799 999
24 Ukraine 888 772 987
25 Iran 865 829 829
26 Denmark 848 823 1089
27 Turkey 842 776 1016
28 USA 828 796 876
29 Netherlands 819 729 931
30 Egypt 815 774 818
31 Tunisia 810 773 834
32 Serbia 789 668 866
33 Senegal 774 758 815
34 Republic of Ireland 769 690 866
35 Ecuador 767 608 898
36 Bosnia and Herzegovina 761 636 925
37 Montenegro 749 640 982
38 Bulgaria 739 715 1024
39 Paraguay 738 621 840
40 Japan 737 676 737
41 Romania 714 596 801
42 Congo DR 709 688 751
43 Scotland 702 608 910
44 Nigeria 696 624 721
45 Cameroon 689 671 718
46 Bolivia 666 614 901
47 Greece 665 515 682
48 Haiti 664 605 673
49 Burkina Faso 663 639 684
50 Australia 662 626 758
51 Korea Republic 659 653 653
52 Ghana 646 633 688
53 Saudi Arabia 641 576 576
54 Côte d'Ivoire 637 580 641
55 Slovenia 636 481 763
56 Morocco 635 630 681
57 Austria 632 565 745
58 Czech Republic 630 552 699
59 Hungary 629 554 801
60 Panama 618 606 730
61 Jamaica 607 614 614
62 Algeria 564 540 629
62 China PR 564 626 626
64 Russia 558 556 556
65 Guinea 554 552 641
66 Albania 551 498 805
67 Cape Verde Islands 548 568 746
68 Venezuela 525 496 755
69 Uzbekistan 511 470 470
70 Cyprus 487 409 696
71 Uganda 486 483 542
72 United Arab Emirates 480 488 488
73 Norway 472 406 620
74 Honduras 467 439 545
75 Syria 465 426 573
76 Mali 464 462 539
77 Belarus 454 391 636
78 Zambia 448 450 509
79 Gabon 430 403 487
80 South Africa 423 409 473
81 Libya 422 407 519
82 Israel 420 374 596
83 Armenia 414 369 617
84 Estonia 413 395 539
85 Qatar 406 376 376
86 Curaçao 405 380 380
87 Finland 404 375 668
88 Benin 400 419 419
88 Kenya 400 345 401
88 Iraq 400 405 429
91 Palestine 389 372 418
92 Azerbaijan 388 273 590
93 Faroe Islands 384 344 549
94 Guinea-Bissau 381 403 403
95 Congo 378 367 487
96 Canada 368 385 385
97 Sierra Leone 366 358 358
98 Mauritania 365 367 367
99 Trinidad and Tobago 361 350 493
99 El Salvador 361 359 359
101 Luxembourg 343 324 603
101 Madagascar 343 332 332
103 Georgia 328 306 545
103 FYR Macedonia 328 319 511
105 Zimbabwe 326 329 329
106 Niger 325 324 324
107 India 316 301 340
108 Mozambique 309 299 299
109 Nicaragua 307 303 303
110 Jordan 305 273 299
111 Suriname 303 251 251
112 Oman 292 261 300
113 New Zealand 289 256 290
114 St. Kitts and Nevis 286 303 303
115 Lebanon 280 271 352
116 Malawi 278 275 275
117 Antigua and Barbuda 276 227 227
118 Rwanda 273 273 273
118 Bahrain 273 251 287
120 Lithuania 266 172 421
121 Togo 263 259 259
122 Kyrgyz Republic 260 243 307
123 Philippines 259 257 303
124 Korea DPR 258 222 308
125 Tanzania 256 232 232
126 Kazakhstan 254 195 451
127 Central African Republic 251 266 266
128 Yemen 247 264 362
129 Burundi 245 233 233
130 Vietnam 241 232 261
131 Guatemala 235 234 234
132 Namibia 233 233 233
133 Liberia 230 230 230
134 Sudan 228 200 200
135 Equatorial Guinea 224 205 205
136 Turkmenistan 221 226 279
137 Thailand 219 201 225
137 Angola 219 223 223
139 Swaziland 217 219 219
140 Tajikistan 213 209 255
141 Comoros 204 222 222
142 New Caledonia 196 177 177
143 Lesotho 193 189 189
144 Ethiopia 191 175 195
144 Andorra 191 191 397
146 Botswana 190 165 185
147 Hong Kong 188 170 211
148 Latvia 182 157 292
149 Tahiti 181 181 181
150 South Sudan 177 172 172
151 Chinese Taipei 175 127 200
152 Myanmar 172 154 204
153 Chad 168 178 178
154 Maldives 156 144 256
155 Solomon Islands 153 173 173
156 Guyana 148 117 117
156 Moldova 148 112 321
158 Afghanistan 147 144 216
159 Grenada 141 141 141
160 Dominican Republic 140 121 121
161 Mauritius 136 140 140
162 Singapore 134 104 138
163 Puerto Rico 132 112 112
164 Gambia 131 120 120
165 Papua New Guinea 130 130 130
166 Malaysia 126 106 181
166 Laos 126 122 149
168 Belize 118 125 125
169 Indonesia 116 117 117
170 Barbados 115 128 128
171 Dominica 111 111 111
172 Cambodia 110 110 144
173 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 107 104 104
174 Bhutan 102 50 189
175 Nepal 101 94 136
176 São Tomé e Príncipe 98 94 94
177 Fiji 95 95 95
178 St. Lucia 94 97 97
179 Aruba 92 92 92
180 Cuba 88 83 83
181 Kuwait 75 58 58
182 Bermuda 72 72 72
182 Macau 72 62 134
184 Kosovo 67 67 443
185 Djibouti 64 64 64
186 Brunei Darussalam 62 65 65
187 Liechtenstein 56 54 253
188 Vanuatu 51 51 51
189 Guam 50 46 46
190 Seychelles 48 51 51
191 Malta 44 44 286
192 Timor-Leste 40 42 42
193 American Samoa 38 38 38
193 Cook Islands 38 38 38
193 Samoa 38 38 38
196 Bangladesh 35 33 33
197 Mongolia 30 30 55
198 Sri Lanka 29 27 27
199 US Virgin Islands 26 26 26
200 Pakistan 20 15 15
200 Montserrat 20 20 20
202 Cayman Islands 13 13 13
202 Turks and Caicos Islands 13 13 13
204 San Marino 10 10 232
205 British Virgin Islands 6 6 6
206 Anguilla 0 0 0
206 Bahamas 0 0 0
206 Eritrea 0 0 0
206 Gibraltar 0 0 285
206 Somalia 0 0 0
206 Tonga 0 0 0

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

53 comments:

  1. Northern Ireland could potentially be the SIXTH best team in the world!! What a time to be alive!!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi Ed, is there a link somewhere to see the the projected result in each of the 2 October qualifiers in Europe?
    I'm not looking for the score prediction, just the most likely result prediction.
    The Rep of Ireland I presume are predicted to win at home to Moldova, but what is the most likely result away to Wales.....draw or loss?
    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. A loss.

      30/Sep Botswana - Ethiopia X (F)
      02/Oct Macau - Laos X (F)
      05/Oct Argentina - Peru 1 (WCQ)
      05/Oct Armenia - Poland 2 (WCQ)
      05/Oct Azerbaijan - Czech Republic 2 (WCQ)
      05/Oct Bolivia - Brazil 2 (WCQ)
      05/Oct Chile - Ecuador 1 (WCQ)
      05/Oct Chinese Taipei - Mongolia 1 (F)
      05/Oct Colombia - Paraguay 1 (WCQ)
      05/Oct England - Slovenia 1 (WCQ)
      05/Oct Hong Kong - Laos 1 (F)
      05/Oct Iraq - Kenya 1 (F)
      05/Oct Malta - Lithuania 2 (WCQ)
      05/Oct Montenegro - Denmark X (WCQ)
      05/Oct Myanmar - Thailand 2 (F)
      05/Oct Northern Ireland - Germany 2 (WCQ)
      05/Oct Romania - Kazakhstan 1 (WCQ)
      05/Oct San Marino - Norway 2 (WCQ)
      05/Oct Scotland - Slovakia X (WCQ)
      05/Oct Syria - Australia 2 (WCQ)
      05/Oct Venezuela - Uruguay X (WCQ)
      06/Oct Austria - Serbia X (WCQ)
      06/Oct Costa Rica - Honduras 1 (WCQ)
      06/Oct Croatia - Finland 1 (WCQ)
      06/Oct Georgia - Wales 2 (WCQ)
      06/Oct Italy - FYR Macedonia 1 (WCQ)
      06/Oct Japan - New Zealand 1 (F)
      06/Oct Kosovo - Ukraine 2 (WCQ)
      06/Oct Liechtenstein - Israel 2 (WCQ)
      06/Oct Mali - Côte d'Ivoire X (WCQ)
      06/Oct Mexico - Trinidad and Tobago 1 (WCQ)
      06/Oct Republic of Ireland - Moldova 1 (WCQ)
      06/Oct Spain - Albania 1 (WCQ)
      06/Oct Turkey - Iceland 1 (WCQ)
      06/Oct USA - Panama 1 (WCQ)
      07/Oct Andorra - Portugal 2 (WCQ)
      07/Oct Belarus - Netherlands 2 (WCQ)
      07/Oct Bosnia and Herzegovina - Belgium 2 (WCQ)
      07/Oct Bulgaria - France 2 (WCQ)
      07/Oct Cameroon - Algeria 1 (WCQ)
      07/Oct Cape Verde Islands - Senegal 2 (WCQ)
      07/Oct Cyprus - Greece 2 (WCQ)
      07/Oct Faroe Islands - Latvia X (WCQ)
      07/Oct Gibraltar - Estonia 2 (WCQ)
      07/Oct Guinea - Tunisia X (WCQ)
      07/Oct Libya - Congo DR 2 (WCQ)
      07/Oct Morocco - Gabon 1 (WCQ)
      07/Oct Nigeria - Zambia 1 (WCQ)
      07/Oct South Africa - Burkina Faso X (WCQ)
      07/Oct Sweden - Luxembourg 1 (WCQ)
      07/Oct Switzerland - Hungary 1 (WCQ)
      07/Oct Uganda - Ghana X (WCQ)
      08/Oct Czech Republic - San Marino 1 (WCQ)
      08/Oct Denmark - Romania 1 (WCQ)
      08/Oct Egypt - Congo 1 (WCQ)
      08/Oct Germany - Azerbaijan 1 (WCQ)
      08/Oct Kazakhstan - Armenia X (WCQ)
      08/Oct Lithuania - England 2 (WCQ)
      08/Oct Norway - Northern Ireland X (WCQ)
      08/Oct Poland - Montenegro 1 (WCQ)
      08/Oct Slovakia - Malta 1 (WCQ)
      08/Oct Slovenia - Scotland X (WCQ)
      08/Oct Thailand - Kenya 1 (F)
      09/Oct Albania - Italy 2 (WCQ)
      09/Oct Finland - Turkey 2 (WCQ)
      09/Oct FYR Macedonia - Liechtenstein 1 (WCQ)
      09/Oct Iceland - Kosovo 1 (WCQ)
      09/Oct Israel - Spain 2 (WCQ)
      09/Oct Moldova - Austria 2 (WCQ)
      09/Oct Serbia - Georgia 1 (WCQ)
      09/Oct Ukraine - Croatia X (WCQ)
      09/Oct Wales - Republic of Ireland 1 (WCQ)
      10/Oct Afghanistan - Jordan 2 (CQ)
      10/Oct Australia - Syria 1 (WCQ)
      10/Oct Belgium - Cyprus 1 (WCQ)
      10/Oct Brazil - Chile 1 (WCQ)
      10/Oct Chinese Taipei - Bahrain 2 (CQ)
      10/Oct Ecuador - Argentina 2 (WCQ)
      10/Oct Estonia - Bosnia and Herzegovina 2 (WCQ)
      10/Oct France - Belarus 1 (WCQ)
      10/Oct Greece - Gibraltar 1 (WCQ)
      10/Oct Honduras - Mexico 2 (WCQ)
      10/Oct Hong Kong - Malaysia 1 (CQ)
      10/Oct Hungary - Faroe Islands 1 (WCQ)
      10/Oct India - Macau 1 (CQ)
      10/Oct Japan - Haiti 1 (F)
      10/Oct Latvia - Andorra 1 (WCQ)
      10/Oct Lebanon - Korea DPR X (CQ)
      10/Oct Luxembourg - Bulgaria 2 (WCQ)
      10/Oct Maldives - Oman 2 (CQ)
      10/Oct Myanmar - Kyrgyz Republic X (CQ)
      10/Oct Netherlands - Sweden 1 (WCQ)
      10/Oct Palestine - Bhutan 1 (CQ)
      10/Oct Panama - Costa Rica X (WCQ)
      10/Oct Paraguay - Venezuela 1 (WCQ)
      10/Oct Peru - Colombia X (WCQ)
      10/Oct Portugal - Switzerland 1 (WCQ)
      10/Oct Tajikistan - Nepal 1 (CQ)
      10/Oct Trinidad and Tobago - USA 2 (WCQ)
      10/Oct Turkmenistan - Singapore 1 (CQ)
      10/Oct Uruguay - Bolivia 1 (WCQ)
      10/Oct Vietnam - Cambodia 1 (CQ)
      10/Oct Yemen - Philippines X (CQ)

      Delete
    2. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    3. According to this scenario, who amongst Greece, Slovakia and Sweden would be the worst second placed team? They'd all end up with 13 points, so the goal difference would decide. Who has the worst projected goal difference?

      Delete
    4. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    5. These would be the pots if Edgar's scenario comes true:

      Pot 1:
      Brazil
      Germany
      Argentina
      Portugal
      Belgium
      Poland
      Wales

      Pot 2:
      France
      Spain
      Colombia
      Chile
      Switzerland
      England
      Italy
      Mexico

      Pot 3:
      Uruguay
      Turkey
      Croatia
      Costa Rica
      USA
      Iran
      Egypt
      Senegal

      Pot 4:
      Tunisia
      Serbia
      Australia
      Japan
      Nigeria
      South Korea
      Cote d'Ivoire
      Saudi Arabia

      UEFA play-offs seeded:
      Wales, Switzerland, Italy, Turkey

      UEFA play-offs unseeded:
      Denmark, Northern Ireland, two of Slovakia/Greece/Sweden

      Worst runner-up:
      one of Slovakia/Greece/Sweden, depending on goal-difference

      Delete
    6. I have a ton of stuff to do this Sunday, so what did I do? I went over the ELO predictions and updated all standings for the UEFA groups to check nogomet's numbers.

      The group winners should be France, Portugal, Germany, Serbia, Poland, England, Spain, Belgium, and Croatia. Well - maybe - because two groups (B and I) could be decided by goal differential and who knows what's going to happen. Remember Modric's attack on FIFA for what happened in Croatia-Kosovo? It turns out that Croatia may need the goals it lost in that mud game.

      But the big mess is for the play-offs and it looks like all goals are going to count in many games. If the ELO predictions are correct, two second place teams are well above the others: Switzerland with 21 points and Italy with 19. Then there are four teams with 14 (Northern Ireland, Wales, Denmark, and Turkey) and - as nogomet points out - three end up at the bottom with 13 (Sweden, Slovakia, and Greece). Slovakia has a +5 goal differential (when games against the sixth-place team are erased) but its GD could go down. Sweden has a +3 GD that could go up or down. Greece has a +2 GD that could go up. Amazing.

      Regardless of who the worst runner-up could be, the seeded teams in the play-offs should be Wales, Switzerland, Italy, and Turkey.

      So I predict that the next few days will bring surprises, arguments, and heart breakers. Good luck all!

      p.s. the current ELO ratings for the nine predicted second-place teams are:
      1931 - Italy
      1851 - Switzerland
      1786 - Sweden
      1776 - Denmark
      1770 - Wales
      1769 - Turkey
      1748 - Slovakia
      1684 - Northern Ireland
      1633 - Greece

      Delete
    7. I think Greece winning by 2+ goals in Cyprus is the safest bet you can make this week. It's like predicting that Dinamo will beat Lokomotiva in the Croatian league. :)

      Delete
  3. Amazing Job. Does anybody know which of the 999 are the highests? Denmarks with a DW or Sweden with a WW. If both teams hit the 999, who will get seeded?

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    Replies
    1. Denmark (999.1915)
      Sweden (999.048)

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    2. Thank you very much

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  4. It looks like Japan shoot themselves in the foot by arranging two friendlies in October. Before doing so, they had 25% chance of being in Pot 3. Now they have 0%.

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  5. If Poland wins both games what must be the results in other games on order for Poland to end up on 4th place?

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    Replies
    1. If Poland win both they should be 3rd-7th (definitely behind Germany and Brazil).

      Using http://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/ranking-tools/prognosis.html
      for Poland and the 4 teams who could also be ranked ahead of them gives the following

      Portugal - ahead of Poland unless they lose to both Switzerland and Andorra (above predicts 2 wins)

      Argentina - ahead of Poland if they can get 2 draws, a win or better against Ecuador and Peru (above predicts 2 wins)

      Belgium - ahead of Poland if they defeat both of Cyprus and Bosnia Herzegovina (above predicts 2 wins)

      Peru - ahead of Poland if they defeat both of Colombia and Argentina (above predicts a loss and a draw)

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    2. I suppose none of the 10000 simulations predicted the exact scenario where Poland would be 3rd (particularly Portugal losing to Andorra), so the 4th place is given as the maximum for them.

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    3. Poland will be wish of any team from 2, 3 and 4th pot for World Cup.

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    4. To my mind Russia is a little weaker team. Yes, I know, nobody would like to play against host. And this time the host is Russia so doping cases in Russian sport, big political pressure for success and bad result in Confederations Cup let me think that there are doubts if this team would be suported only by fans or by someone else. I hope not to see any Korea 2002 repeat. Still I don't mind Russian success in 2018 but in fair play conditions.

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    5. Russia is definitely weaker team. But as you stated they are hosting , so give me Poland any day over them.

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    6. Portugal now finish ahead of Poland if the Polish side win on MD10 agaisnt Montenegro, while Peru would finish lower.

      Argentina and Belgium could still finish higher so Poland can finish between 4th-6th.

      With things tight at the top Poland are at this stage needing a win to secure a Pot 1 World Cup seeding although a draw may be enough if other results go their way in the upcoming final qualifiers and/or EUFA and South America-Oceania playoffs.

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  6. It is of note that some of the teams still in the running have to achieve certain results in order to actually get to the World Cup. For example it's impossible for Wales to qualify with two losses. So there can't be a Wales with 970 points in the draw.

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    Replies
    1. Wales need two wins pretty much.

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    2. Wales could top their group or finish 2nd with a draw or win on MD10. A draw puts them in some danger of finishing as 9th ranked #2 side and missing playoffs

      Regardless of whether Wales qualify directly or via the EUFA WCQ playoffs they would need a win on EUFA WCQ MD10 to be in the running for a Pot 1 World Cup Seeding.

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  7. Great resource. Thank you

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  8. It's weird that FIFA still hasn't included Russia - South Korea (7 Oct) and Russia - Iran (10 Oct) friendlies into their match list. According to my calculations, if Iran lose this game in Kazan, it could cost them a place in Pot 3 of the World Cup. Tunisia would take their place.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Finally the Russia friendlies have been added by FIFA. In addition, Iran scheduled not only the friendly with Russia, but Togo as well. Talk about shooting themselves in the foot...

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    2. I am not as convinced that Japan and Iran will be "shooting themselves in the foot" by playing October friendlies, particularly with the chance to play friendies in the country where the 2018 World Cup is being held and no doubt Russia will be getting many more invites in the November, March and Pre WC friendly windows so it is either now or never

      A lot of strong teams can potentially slot into Pot 3 but the chances are slim that more than 1 or 2 will and if the November/December draw is favourable for Japan/Iran then they will be happy with the decision.

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  9. Hi Ed, do you feel like a bit of overtime on Saturday night after all Euro teams have played their Match Day 9 games?
    A couple of unexpected results already with Scotland and Denmark winning games they were expected to lose.
    How will these and the Friday/Saturday results affect the permutations for qualification before the Match Day 10 games? Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Ger,

      don't know about Edgar but I plan to publish this Sunday all the simulated probabilities after the Saturday matches.

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    2. Edgar is certain there's will be no updates until next Friday. :)

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  10. Sorry Denmark and Scotland were expected to draw those games☺️

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  11. And Iceland smashing Turkey 3-0. How is it that Iceland´s max is set at 920 with them currently at 931 before the game with Turkey and a sure win at home to Kosovo?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That must be due to past results devaluating or falling off, which is how the mechanism of calculating these values works.

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  12. Sweden can reach 999 with WW and Italy can reach 999 wit DD. Which get highest 999 ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think it is Italy > Sweden if that happens, although this question has been answered in an earlier article somewhere on this site and I would trust that answer over mine.

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    2. Yeah, Italy 999,32 and Sweden 999,05 in this particular case.

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  13. Boom! Rep Ireland upset the apple cart, playoffs here we come👍

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  14. Hi Ed..when will be refreshed these ??

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  15. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  16. The dust has settled with some last surprises, Here is the top-50 of the all important October 2017 ranking (with only India-Macau to play today):

    1 Germany 1.631 Q
    2 Brazil 1.619 Q
    3 Portugal 1.446 Q
    4 Argentina 1.445 Q
    5 Belgium 1.333 Q
    6 Poland 1.323 Q
    7 France 1.226 Q
    8 Spain 1.218 Q
    9 Chile 1.173
    10 Peru 1.160 po
    11 Switzerland 1.134 po
    12 England 1.116 Q
    13 Colombia 1.095 Q
    14 Wales 1.072
    15 Italy 1.066 po
    16 Mexico 1.060 Q
    17 Uruguay 1.034 Q
    18 Croatia 1.013 po
    19 Denmark 1.001 po
    20 Netherlands 931
    21 Iceland 920 Q
    22 Costa Rica 914 Q
    23 Northern Ireland 889 po
    24 Slovakia 885
    25 Sweden 872 po
    26 Republic of Ireland 866 po
    27 USA 843
    28 Tunisia 834 group
    29 Scotland 821
    30 Egypt 818 Q
    30 Ukraine 818
    32 Senegal 815 group
    33 Turkey 807
    34 Iran 784 Q
    35 Congo DR 751 group
    36 Paraguay 750
    36 Bulgaria 750
    38 Serbia 748 Q
    39 Austria 745
    40 Bosnia-Herzegovina 744
    41 Nigeria 721 Q
    42 Cameroon 718
    43 Australia 714 po
    44 Japan 711 Q
    45 Romania 705
    46 Czech Republic 699
    47 Greece 682 po
    48 Morocco 680 group
    49 Panama 670 Q
    50 Bolivia 664

    62 Korea Republic 588 Q
    63 Saudi Arabia 576 Q
    65 Russia 563 Q
    69 Honduras 510 po
    122 New Zealand 256 po

    ReplyDelete
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    1. And where are cote d'Ivoire south africa burkina Faso and cape verde? They can still qualify

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    2. All right, to be complete:
      55 Burkina Faso 639 group
      61 Cote d'Ivoire 600 group
      64 Cape Verde Islands 568 group
      74 South Africa 473 group

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    3. Thanks what is your predictions for the 9 last places in the world cup?

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    4. Well, I myself am not the predicting kind of guy. I let elo do all my predictions. And elo says:
      Tunisia, Cote d'Ivoire and Senegal from the African groups and Australia and Peru from the intercontinental play-offs.
      Elo can only say something about the probable outcome of the UEFA play-offs when the matches are drawn.

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    5. Honduras and Morocco can Aldo qualify..for thé UEFA playoffs it dépends on the draw but i think italy croatia switzerland ans Danemark will be in the world cup

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  17. The European play-offs are seeded:

    Switzerland
    Italy
    Croatia
    Denmark

    Northern Ireland
    Sweden
    Republic of Ireland
    Greece

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    Replies
    1. I went to check ELO ratings, FIFA rankings, UEFA coefficients, and bookmakers odds. It looks like Switzerland, Italy, and Croatia should be OK no matter which team they draw. The only team in pot A that risks a lot is Denmark, in particular if they are paired with Sweden. Greece seems to have no chance no matter who they pick in the draw. That said predictions are one animal and reality a completely different beast. I watched Italy against Macedonia and Albania and right now it's very difficult to imagine the azzurri eliminate anyone that is not San Marino or Gibraltar. A series of terrifying sleepless night awaits.

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    2. I think Greece stands a good chance against anyone, with the possible exception of Italy. My opinion.

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  18. The intercontinental play-offs:
    Honduras - Australia
    New Zealand - Peru

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. FIFA world cup 2018 pots :
      Pot 1 : Russia-Germany-Brazil-Portugal-Argentina-Belgium-Poland-France
      Pot 2 : Spain-Peru-Switzerland-England-Colombia-Italy-Mexico-Uruguay
      Pot 3 : Croatia-Denmark-Iceland-Costa Rica-Tunisia-Egypt-Senegal-Iran
      Pot 4 : Serbia-Nigeria-Australia-Japan-Morocco-Panama-South Korea-Saudi Arabia

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  19. CONMEBOL should have a 6th play-off team competing for a world cup spot. A third intercontinental play-off game between Chile and lowest ranking European team.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes Chile against Slovakia and reduce the place of afc to 3,5 (Iran and japan qualify directly and a playoff between south korea and saudi arabia and the winner qualify directly and the looser play against honduras)

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