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Friday, June 20, 2014

FIFA Ranking: July 2014 probable ranking

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.



Probable July 2014 rank - Team - Probable July 2014 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points


1 Germany 1627 1 327
2 Argentina 1614 3 439
3 Brazil 1555 0 313
4 Colombia 1492 4 355
5 Netherlands 1381 10 400
6 Italy 1306 3 202
7 Switzerland 1272 -1 123
8 Belgium 1254 3 180
9 Spain 1229 -8 -256
10 Uruguay 1220 -3 73
11 France 1218 6 305
12 Portugal 1167 -8 -22
13 Chile 1095 1 69
14 USA 1018 -1 -17
15 Russia 1009 4 116
16 Croatia 1007 2 104
17 England 1004 -7 -86
18 Greece 991 -6 -73
19 Ukraine 898 -3 -17
20 Côte d'Ivoire 879 3 70
21 Mexico 862 -1 -20
22 Ecuador 849 4 58
23 Bosnia-Herzegovina 841 -2 -32
24 Denmark 807 -1 -2
25 Algeria 759 -3 -99
26 Scotland 734 1 -52
27 Romania 733 2 -28
28 Sweden 724 4 -17
29 Costa Rica 723 -1 -39
30 Venezuela 720 10 48
31 Serbia 717 -1 -28
32 Turkey 714 3 -8
33 Panama 684 -2 -59
34 Czech Republic 646 0 -78
35 Egypt 645 1 -70
36 Slovenia 644 -11 -156
37 Hungary 642 10 18
38 Honduras 637 -5 -94
39 Armenia 635 -1 -47
40 Tunisia 621 8 9
41 Iran 618 2 -23
41 Nigeria 618 3 -22
43 Austria 614 -1 -29
44 Wales 606 -3 -38
45 Ghana 604 -8 -100
45 Japan 604 1 -22
47 Slovakia 588 2 -3
48 Iceland 570 4 4
49 Paraguay 566 1 -9
50 Montenegro 559 1 -15
51 Guinea 555 1 -11
52 Korea Republic 533 5 -14
53 Uzbekistan 523 6 -16
54 Cameroon 520 2 -38
54 Norway 520 1 -42
56 Finland 508 5 -24
57 Jordan 500 6 -10
58 Burkina Faso 495 2 -43
59 Peru 487 -14 -140
60 Poland 478 9 4
61 Senegal 476 13 25
62 Libya 471 2 -27
63 Sierra Leone 469 -9 -96
64 United Arab Emirates 466 8 6
65 Mali 462 -8 -85
66 South Africa 450 -1 -46
67 Albania 444 -1 -51
67 Israel 444 8 0
69 Oman 443 10 23
70 Republic of Ireland 440 0 -33
71 Bolivia 429 -4 -54
72 Bulgaria 425 6 0
73 Azerbaijan 410 10 14
74 Cape Verde Islands 401 -35 -273
75 Australia 397 -13 -129
76 FYR Macedonia 396 4 -23
76 Zambia 396 0 -45
78 China PR 391 25 60
79 Saudi Arabia 384 11 3
80 Angola 377 13 13
80 Morocco 377 -3 -62
82 Belarus 376 0 -21
83 Congo 375 2 -18
84 Jamaica 373 -3 -38
85 Trinidad and Tobago 369 -14 -101
86 Palestine 362 8 4
87 Qatar 361 13 22
88 Uganda 358 -2 -32
89 Togo 357 -1 -26
90 Iraq 356 14 27
90 Northern Ireland 356 0 -25
92 Benin 354 -5 -32
93 Estonia 345 5 2
94 Gabon 344 -5 -38
95 Kenya 339 13 43
96 Congo DR 338 -12 -57
96 Georgia 338 0 -11
98 Zimbabwe 334 1 -6
99 Botswana 332 -7 -43
99 Niger 332 13 48
101 New Zealand 330 -4 -17
102 Moldova 325 -1 -9
103 Latvia 314 6 21
104 Lithuania 312 2 -7
105 Bahrain 288 5 -1
106 Tanzania 287 7 4
107 Kuwait 281 8 5
108 Luxembourg 278 11 11
109 Rwanda 276 7 5
110 Ethiopia 271 -3 -46
111 Equatorial Guinea 270 -9 -63
112 Namibia 264 2 -13
113 Haiti 262 -40 -190
114 Liberia 256 2 -15
114 Sudan 256 6 2
116 Mozambique 255 2 -14
117 Central African Republic 253 -12 -68
118 Canada 250 -8 -39
119 Lebanon 249 6 16
120 Cuba 245 -25 -109
121 El Salvador 234 -53 -247
121 Malawi 234 1 -13
123 Aruba 233 -3 -21
124 Tajikistan 232 2 3
125 Dominican Republic 230 6 18
126 Burundi 222 2 1
127 Kazakhstan 220 -3 -21
128 Philippines 218 1 1
129 Afghanistan 217 1 2
129 Vietnam 217 -6 -25
131 Lesotho 213 8 19
131 Suriname 213 5 16
133 Mauritania 208 4 12
134 Guatemala 204 -7 -22
135 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 203 -2 0
136 Guinea-Bissau 199 -2 -2
136 New Caledonia 199 4 9
138 St. Lucia 195 -1 -1
139 Cyprus 193 3 4
140 Chad 183 -6 -18
140 Turkmenistan 183 3 0
142 Grenada 182 2 0
143 Madagascar 179 1 -3
144 Kyrgyzstan 176 5 13
145 Maldives 171 2 0
146 Syria 169 -6 -21
147 Korea DPR 163 -1 -12
148 Gambia 161 0 -5
149 Antigua and Barbuda 152 2 -6
150 Indonesia 151 7 16
151 Malta 146 -19 -58
152 India 144 2 0
152 Malaysia 144 1 -5
154 Singapore 140 1 -1
155 Guyana 136 1 -1
156 Puerto Rico 134 2 0
157 Thailand 128 -8 -35
158 St. Kitts and Nevis 124 2 0
159 Swaziland 123 14 38
160 Myanmar 122 -1 -11
161 Belize 117 -9 -35
162 Hong Kong 114 1 2
163 Bangladesh 103 4 5
164 Montserrat 99 2 0
165 Nepal 96 -1 -6
166 Pakistan 95 -2 -7
167 Dominica 93 2 0
167 Liechtenstein 93 -5 -25
169 Barbados 92 1 0
170 Laos 87 -2 -10
171 Tahiti 85 -10 -37
172 Comoros 84 2 0
173 Bermuda 83 2 0
174 Guam 79 4 2
175 Nicaragua 78 1 0
175 Solomon Islands 78 5 8
177 Sao Tome e Principe 72 -5 -14
178 Chinese Taipei 71 -2 -7
178 Sri Lanka 71 1 -2
180 Yemen 70 3 9
181 Turks and Caicos Islands 66 26 66
182 Seychelles 64 -1 -2
183 Curacao 63 -1 -2
184 Faroe Islands 61 -13 -28
185 Mauritius 56 -1 -1
186 South Sudan 43 -1 -4
187 Vanuatu 38 3 10
188 Fiji 31 0 -3
189 Mongolia 29 -2 -6
190 Samoa 28 -1 -4
190 US Virgin Islands 28 5 5
192 Bahamas 26 -6 -14
192 Brunei Darussalam 26 0 0
192 Timor-Leste 26 0 0
192 Tonga 26 0 0
196 Cayman Islands 21 0 0
197 American Samoa 18 1 0
198 Andorra 16 2 0
199 Papua New Guinea 14 -3 -7
200 British Virgin Islands 13 -2 -5
200 Cambodia 13 -10 -15
202 Eritrea 11 -1 0
203 Somalia 8 -1 0
204 Macau 7 -2 -1
205 Djibouti 6 -1 0
206 Cook Islands 5 -1 0
207 Anguilla 1 -1 -2
208 Bhutan 0 -1 0
208 San Marino 0 -1 0

4 comments:

  1. The second matchday in each group at the World Cup has been played. Here's an update of the elo-predictions for the remaining matches, the resulting top-30 of the July ranking and the confederation weightings.

    2014-06-23 Brazil - Cameroon; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-23 Croatia - Mexico; World Cup; X
    2014-06-23 Netherlands - Chile; World Cup; X
    2014-06-23 Spain - Australia; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-24 Colombia - Japan; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-24 Greece - Cote d'Ivoire; World Cup; X
    2014-06-24 Costa Rica - England; World Cup; X
    2014-06-24 Uruguay - Italy; World Cup; X
    2014-06-25 Ecuador - France; World Cup; 2
    2014-06-25 Switzerland - Honduras; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-25 Argentina - Nigeria; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-25 Bosnia-Herzegovina - Iran; World Cup; X
    2014-06-25 Indonesia - Nepal; Friendly; 1
    2014-06-25 Mozambique - Ethiopia; Friendly; X
    2014-06-26 Germany - USA; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-26 Portugal - Ghana; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-26 Algeria - Russia; World Cup; 2
    2014-06-26 Belgium - Korea Republic; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-28 Brazil - Chile; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-28 Colombia - Italy; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-29 Netherlands - Mexico; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-29 Costa Rica - Cote d'Ivoire; World Cup; Costa Rica PSO win
    2014-06-29 China PR - Mali; Friendly; 1
    2014-06-30 France - Nigeria; World Cup; 1
    2014-06-30 Germany - Russia; World Cup; 1
    2014-07-01 Argentina - Switzerland; World Cup; 1
    2014-07-01 Belgium - USA; World Cup; Belgium PSO win
    2014-07-02 Vietnam - Myanmar; Friendly; 1
    2014-07-04 Brazil - Colombia; World Cup; 1
    2014-07-04 France - Germany; World Cup; 2
    2014-07-05 Netherlands - Costa Rica; World Cup; 1
    2014-07-05 Argentina - Belgium; World Cup; 1
    2014-07-08 Brazil - Germany; World Cup; 1
    2014-07-09 Netherlands - Argentina; World Cup; Netherlands PSO win
    2014-07-12 Germany - Argentina; World Cup; Germany PSO win
    2014-07-13 Brazil - Netherlands; World Cup; 1

    1 Argentina 1609 (+4)
    2 Germany 1559 (-)
    3 Brazil 1555 (-)
    4 Colombia 1490 (+4)
    5 Netherlands 1362 (+10)
    6 Belgium 1351 (+5)
    7 France 1289 (+10)
    8 Uruguay 1276 (-1)
    9 Spain 1229 (-8)
    10 Switzerland 1216 (-4)
    11 Portugal 1148 (-7)
    12 Chile 1095 (+2)
    13 Italy 1078 (-4)
    14 USA 1024 (-1)
    15 Croatia 1007 (+3)
    16 Greece 991 (-4)
    17 Russia 959 (+2)
    18 Costa Rica 931 (+10)
    19 Cote d'Ivoire 929 (+4)
    20 England 911 (-10)
    21 Ukraine 898 (-5)
    22 Mexico 862 (-2)
    23 Algeria 857 (-1)
    24 Ecuador 849 (+2)
    25 Bosnia-Herzegovina 820 (-4)
    26 Denmark 807 (-3)
    27 Scotland 734 (-)
    28 Romania 733 (+1)
    29 Sweden 724 (+3)
    30 Venezuela 720 (+10)

    CONMEBOL 1.00
    UEFA 0.96
    CONCACAF 0.87
    CAF/AFC/OFC 0.85

    Auch Europe ! That's not good at all.

    At the same time: a very entertaining World Cup so far. Lots of goals and surprises.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Looking at the predicted results & ranking, these teams of the top 20 may have a very different ranking if the results turn out to be slightly different:

    Brazil, Netherlands & Chile: depending on the result of Netherlands-Chile, these 3 teams can face very different opponents and that way a very different result.
    Uruguay: seems to me able to qualify for round of 16, so this could make a big change. Also makes the result of Italy unsure.
    Portugal: IF (IF, IF!!!) they would still qualify, they can still get a big bonus.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Jeroen, as it happens the result for each team is unsure. It's just a prediction, as you know, but based on the (in my opinion) best NT-ranking system there is.
      It's just for fun, this prediction business :) I hope everyone is aware of all the what-if-scenario's around here when interpreting the information ...

      Delete