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Friday, November 27, 2009

FIFA Ranking: Time works in Brazil's favor

Spain will keep their spot in the next three releases of the FIFA ranking (December 2009, January 2010 and February 2009). If they win against France on March 3rd, 2010, they will keep their place even in the March 2009 release, because I'm sure Brazil will play a friendly on the same day and that will bring their average down. However, even if Brazil lose that match, the seleção will return to the top of the rankings on April 28th, 2010.
If Spain don't win against France, Brazil could return to the top on March 31st, 2010.

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

African Cup of Nations: Seeding for Gabon/Equatorial Guinea 2012 qualifiers

This may seem a bit early, but it's not. The draw for the 2012 ACN qualifiers will take place a couple of days after the final of ACN 2010, probably after February 3rd, the day of the first FIFA ranking release for 2010.

Based on the 2008 ACN draw procedure, it won't actually be a draw. The first seeded team will be placed with the weakest team from each of the other three pots.

With 51 members and 14 places available, CAF will probably use a system with 12 groups of 4 teams and one with 3 teams, with the winners and the best runner-up qualifying. However, if at least 3 members don't enter the qualifying rounds, we'll probably see 12 groups of 4 teams with the winners and the top two runners-up joining the hosts in 2012.

The "usual suspects" to drop from qualifying:

2006 ACN qualifiers:

Central African Republic withdrew.

2008 ACN qualifiers:

Central African Republic, Comoros, Somalia and São Tomé and Príncipe did not enter.
Guinea-Bissau were not allowed to enter.
Djibouti withdrew.

2010 ACN qualifiers:

São Tomé and Príncipe and the Central African Republic withdrew.

The seeding formula is the sum of:
  • 2010 WCQ points
  • bonus for qualifying for the 2010 WC (6 points)
  • 2010 ACN group stage points
  • 2010 ACN performance bonus (12 for the winner, 9 for the finalist, 6 for the SF, 3 for the QF)
The rest of the teams will be ranked using the January 2010 FIFA ranking.

Pot 1: Côte d'Ivoire, Cameroon, Algeria, Ghana, Nigeria, Egypt, Burkina Faso, Tunisia, Benin, Mali, Togo, Mozambique, Zambia
Pot 2: Malawi, Morocco, Guinea, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, South Africa, Senegal, Uganda, Cape Verde Islands, Congo, Angola, Tanzania
Pot 3: Zimbabwe, Namibia, Congo DR, Gambia, Libya, Botswana, Ethiopia, Sierra Leone, Swaziland, Chad, Burundi, Lesotho, Madagascar
Pot 4: Liberia, Mauritania, Niger, Eritrea, Comoros, Seychelles, Mauritius, Somalia, Djibouti, Guinea-Bissau, Central African Republic, Sao Tome e Principe

I didn't give South Africa the bonus points for WC participation, because they didn't even reach the final CAF qualifying round.
With the exception of Angola, no team below Sudan can break in the top 19.

Group 1: Côte d'Ivoire, Tanzania, Madagascar, Sao Tome e Principe
Group 2: Cameroon, Angola, Lesotho, Central African Republic
Group 3: Algeria, Congo, Burundi, Guinea-Bissau
Group 4: Ghana, Cape Verde Islands, Chad, Djibouti
Group 5: Nigeria, Uganda, Swaziland, Somalia
Group 6: Egypt, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Mauritius
Group 7: Burkina Faso, South Africa, Ethiopia, Seychelles
Group 8: Tunisia, Sudan, Botswana, Comoros
Group 9: Benin, Rwanda, Libya, Eritrea
Group 10: Mali, Kenya, Gambia, Niger
Group 11: Togo, Guinea, Congo DR, Mauritania
Group 12: Mozambique, Morocco, Namibia, Liberia
Group 13: Zambia, Malawi, Zimbabwe

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

November 2009: FIFA Ranking vs. Elo Ratings

Top 10 differences for countries with a better Elo Rating:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference

Solomon Islands 171 119 52
Guinea-Bissau 190 140 50
Tahiti 195 149 46
Central African Republic 200 155 45
Papua New Guinea 203 165 38
Tajikistan 162 126 36
Niger 164 130 34
Libya 118 86 32
Sao Tome e Principe 203 174 29
Syria 91 64 27

Top 10 differences for countries with a better FIFA Ranking:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference

Luxembourg 128 169 -41
Burkina Faso 49 87 -38
Grenada 103 137 -34
Faroe Islands 120 154 -34
Nicaragua 134 168 -34
Benin 59 92 -33
Northern Ireland 39 71 -32
Gabon 48 77 -29
Philippines 165 194 -29
Algeria 28 56 -28

Top 50 nations only (in the top 50 in at least one of the rankings)

Top 10 differences for countries with a better Elo Rating:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference

Japan 43 17 26
Iran 63 41 22
Saudi Arabia 65 44 21
Korea Republic 52 32 20
Turkey 41 23 18
Sweden 42 26 16
Venezuela 50 37 13
Colombia 40 30 10
Denmark 26 17 9
Finland 54 45 9

Top 10 differences for countries with a better FIFA Ranking:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference

Burkina Faso 49 87 -38
Northern Ireland 39 71 -32
Gabon 48 77 -29
Algeria 28 56 -28
Latvia 45 70 -25
Israel 25 40 -15
Slovenia 33 47 -14
Slovakia 34 48 -14
Czech Republic 23 36 -13
Mali 47 60 -13

Matches I would have liked to see in December:

Japan - Northern Ireland
Iran - Latvia
Saudi Arabia - Algeria
Korea Republic - Slovakia
Turkey - Slovenia
Sweden - Burkina Faso
Venezuela - Gabon
Colombia - Israel
Denmark - Czech Republic
Finland - Benin

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

FIFA Ranking: Teams in need of matches for the December 2009 ranking

There are 60 teams that will not have the required 5 matches in the last 12 months when the December 2009 FIFA Ranking will be released. For these teams, FIFA will basically add a number of "virtual defeats" equal to the difference between the number of matches actually played by that team in the last 12 months and the required 5 matches.

Only Cape Verde Islands will be in the top 100.

19 countries managed to get positive results in the last 12 months, but they lose points because of the 5 matches requirement.

Country - Points lost - Interim December 2009 rank
Barbados                       175 128
Antigua and Barbuda 84 130
Myanmar 51 139
Cook Islands 51 184
Guyana 46 126
Cape Verde Islands 40 97
Comoros 25 176
Libya 23 115
Netherlands Antilles 21 166
Congo DR 17 107
Philippines 17 164
Cambodia 17 174
Belize 14 172
Suriname 13 143
St. Vincent and the Grenadines 13 151
Mongolia 13 170
Tonga 12 189
St. Kitts and Nevis 9 153
Nepal 4 175

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

Monday, November 23, 2009

FIFA Ranking: December 2009 interim ranking

Point totals for teams from the top 20 of the October 2007 ranking should be 100% correct. For the others, there's the issue of historical rankings published before July 2006.

Included: matches up to and including November 22nd, 2009.

Next update: December 10th, 2009.

This is the December ranking computed as if no more matches would be played before December 10th - the deadline for the December ranking. The top 74 teams will not be playing matches.
There are two competitions set to start in a couple of days: CECAFA Cup and SAFF Cup.

Spain will keep the first spot.

Best movers:

17 - Jordan
7 - Kenya and Vietnam
6 - Gambia and Indonesia

Worst movers:

-35 - Grenada
-23 - Cuba
-18 - Eritrea

Best movers in the top 50:

5 - Egypt
3 - Ghana
2 - Algeria, Chile, Ukraine and Slovenia

Worst movers in the top 50:

-4 - Romania
-3 - Bulgaria
-2 - Mexico, Czech Republic, Denmark and Ecuador

Iran drop out of the AFC top 5, replaced by Saudi Arabia.
Egypt overtake Algeria for 4th in Africa and 1st in the Arab world. Some consolation...

December 2009 rank - Team - December 2009 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points

1 Spain 1627 0 5
2 Brazil 1568 0 -24
3 Netherlands 1288 0 9
4 Italy 1209 0 -6
5 Portugal 1176 0 -5
6 Germany 1173 0 3
7 France 1117 0 -5
8 Argentina 1085 0 0
9 England 1076 0 13
10 Croatia 1042 0 -8
11 Cameroon 1035 0 0
12 Russia 1026 1 7
13 Greece 1016 -1 -12
14 USA 980 0 0
15 Chile 936 2 10
16 Côte d'Ivoire 934 0 7
17 Mexico 931 -2 0
18 Switzerland 924 0 0
19 Serbia 916 1 16
20 Uruguay 909 -1 8
21 Australia 863 0 0
22 Nigeria 848 0 0
22 Ukraine 848 2 6
24 Egypt 833 5 13
25 Czech Republic 828 -2 -15
26 Algeria 823 2 0
26 Israel 823 -1 -14
28 Denmark 820 -2 -15
29 Paraguay 806 1 -10
30 Bulgaria 801 -3 -26
31 Slovenia 767 2 11
32 Norway 760 -1 -20
33 Slovakia 751 1 -4
34 Ghana 747 3 8
35 Republic of Ireland 746 1 0
36 Romania 745 -4 -18
37 Ecuador 738 -2 -12
37 Honduras 738 1 0
39 Colombia 736 1 0
40 Northern Ireland 730 -1 -7
41 Turkey 728 0 -1
42 Sweden 721 0 -6
43 Japan 709 0 0
44 Costa Rica 701 0 7
45 Latvia 677 0 7
46 Scotland 665 0 0
47 Mali 662 0 0
48 Gabon 660 0 0
49 Burkina Faso 650 0 0
50 Venezuela 646 0 0
51 Bosnia-Herzegovina 642 0 -1
52 Korea Republic 625 0 0
53 Tunisia 614 0 1
54 Hungary 613 1 10
55 Finland 592 -1 -13
56 Bolivia 573 1 0
56 Canada 573 1 0
58 Poland 556 -2 -19
59 Benin 532 0 -2
60 Bahrain 524 1 0
61 Austria 523 1 3
62 Lithuania 521 -2 -4
63 Saudi Arabia 509 2 8
64 Iran 507 -1 -11
65 FYR Macedonia 495 1 4
66 Belgium 492 -2 -12
67 Morocco 477 0 1
68 Cyprus 471 0 -1
68 Peru 471 2 4
70 Panama 469 -1 1
71 Togo 467 -1 0
72 Mozambique 462 0 0
73 Guinea 459 2 9
74 Montenegro 456 -1 0
75 Uganda 452 3 24
76 Uzbekistan 440 0 3
77 Wales 420 2 -7
78 El Salvador 412 4 5
79 Oman 410 4 7
80 Belarus 406 0 -20
81 Jamaica 404 -7 -47
82 New Zealand 400 -5 -33
82 Trinidad and Tobago 400 -1 -21
84 Korea DPR 377 0 -22
84 South Africa 377 2 0
86 Qatar 376 1 2
87 Zambia 374 3 16
88 Iraq 364 0 0
89 Senegal 361 0 -1
90 Haiti 349 -5 -35
91 Iceland 346 1 0
91 Syria 346 0 -2
93 China PR 340 4 12
94 Moldova 338 -1 0
95 Angola 337 -1 0
96 Albania 336 2 9
97 Cape Verde Islands 331 4 15
98 Kenya 329 7 37
99 Malawi 326 -5 -11
100 Armenia 321 -1 -2
101 Congo 320 -1 0
102 Estonia 308 0 5
103 Kuwait 301 0 3
104 Thailand 296 3 7
105 Tanzania 293 1 2
106 Rwanda 285 4 30
107 Congo DR 271 2 10
108 Sudan 268 3 21
109 Zimbabwe 265 -1 0
110 Singapore 260 1 13
111 Jordan 256 17 71
112 United Arab Emirates 248 -1 1
113 Namibia 246 1 0
114 Azerbaijan 237 2 0
115 Libya 232 3 4
116 Gambia 224 6 6
117 Faroe Islands 222 3 2
118 Botswana 219 3 0
119 Cuba 218 -23 -113
120 Burundi 216 4 2
121 Indonesia 206 6 8
122 Guatemala 205 3 2
123 Vietnam 203 7 19
124 Georgia 202 1 -1
125 Kazakhstan 200 -6 -26
126 Guyana 191 -9 -41
127 Luxembourg 185 1 0
128 Barbados 181 -13 -57
129 Ethiopia 179 2 -3
130 Antigua and Barbuda 176 -7 -40
130 Yemen 176 2 -1
132 Fiji 167 1 -7
133 Nicaragua 165 1 0
134 India 158 1 -5
135 Equatorial Guinea 152 0 -11
135 Swaziland 152 3 0
137 Sierra Leone 145 4 8
138 Grenada 144 -35 -154
139 Myanmar 142 -4 -21
140 Turkmenistan 139 0 0
141 Bermuda 138 3 5
142 Hong Kong 137 -1 0
143 Suriname 133 1 0
144 Chad 130 3 0
145 Malta 128 4 0
146 Lebanon 126 1 -4
146 New Caledonia 126 -7 -21
148 Lesotho 120 2 0
149 Maldives 119 -3 -13
150 Sri Lanka 113 4 5
151 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 112 -8 -24
152 Liechtenstein 110 0 0
153 Vanuatu 108 4 7
154 St. Kitts and Nevis 107 5 13
155 Madagascar 105 0 0
156 Kyrgyzstan 103 0 0
157 Malaysia 102 -5 -8
158 Liberia 98 0 0
159 Chinese Taipei 93 1 0
160 Niger 92 4 6
161 Puerto Rico 87 1 0
162 Tajikistan 86 0 -1
163 Pakistan 85 -2 -3
164 Philippines 83 1 0
165 Bangladesh 81 0 -2
166 Netherlands Antilles 80 2 0
167 Somalia 77 0 -5
168 Mauritania 70 1 0
169 Eritrea 66 -18 -49
170 Mongolia 61 0 0
171 Solomon Islands 60 0 0
172 Belize 57 1 0
172 Palestine 57 3 3
174 Cambodia 56 -2 -3
175 Nepal 52 1 -1
176 Comoros 46 2 0
177 Turks and Caicos Islands 45 2 0
178 Laos 44 -4 -11
178 Seychelles 44 2 0
180 Bahamas 42 -3 -5
181 Mauritius 40 1 0
182 Samoa 38 1 0
183 Cayman Islands 36 1 0
184 Cook Islands 34 1 0
184 Djibouti 34 1 0
184 Guam 34 1 0
187 St. Lucia 32 1 0
188 Macau 31 1 0
189 Tonga 28 2 0
190 Dominican Republic 26 -9 -15
191 British Virgin Islands 25 1 0
191 Brunei Darussalam 25 1 0
193 Guinea-Bissau 20 -3 -9
194 Afghanistan 19 -2 -6
194 Tahiti 19 1 0
196 Bhutan 17 0 0
197 Dominica 12 0 0
198 Aruba 11 0 0
199 US Virgin Islands 8 0 0
200 Central African Republic 4 0 0
200 Timor-Leste 4 0 0
202 Andorra 3 0 0
203 American Samoa 0 0 0
203 Anguilla 0 0 0
203 Montserrat 0 0 0
203 Papua New Guinea 0 0 0
203 San Marino 0 0 0

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.

FIFA Ranking: December 2009 preview

Point totals for teams from the top 20 of the October 2007 ranking should be 100% correct. For the others, there's the issue of historical rankings published before July 2006.

Included: matches up to and including November 22nd, 2009.

Next update: December 10th, 2009.

This month you won't see a probable ranking because it's not worth it. The top 74 teams will not be playing matches.
There are two competitions: CECAFA Cup and SAFF Cup. The CECAFA Cup will feature a non-FIFA team (Zanzibar), while Zimbabwe will field an U-23 side. India will do the same in the SAFF Cup. On top of that, I could find no info regarding the quarterfinals match-ups for CECAFA.

November 2009 rank - Country - November 2009 points - Minimum points - Maximum points

1 Spain 1622 1627 1627
2 Brazil 1592 1568 1568
3 Netherlands 1279 1288 1288
4 Italy 1215 1209 1209
5 Portugal 1181 1176 1176
6 Germany 1170 1173 1173
7 France 1122 1117 1117
8 Argentina 1085 1085 1085
9 England 1063 1076 1076
10 Croatia 1050 1042 1042
11 Cameroon 1035 1035 1035
12 Greece 1028 1016 1016
13 Russia 1019 1026 1026
14 USA 980 980 980
15 Mexico 931 931 931
16 Côte d'Ivoire 927 934 934
17 Chile 926 936 936
18 Switzerland 924 924 924
19 Uruguay 901 909 909
20 Serbia 900 916 916
21 Australia 863 863 863
22 Nigeria 848 848 848
23 Czech Republic 843 828 828
24 Ukraine 842 848 848
25 Israel 837 823 823
26 Denmark 835 820 820
27 Bulgaria 827 801 801
28 Algeria 823 823 823
29 Egypt 820 833 833
30 Paraguay 816 806 806
31 Norway 780 760 760
32 Romania 763 745 745
33 Slovenia 756 767 767
34 Slovakia 755 751 751
35 Ecuador 750 738 738
36 Republic of Ireland 746 746 746
37 Ghana 739 747 747
38 Honduras 738 738 738
39 Northern Ireland 737 730 730
40 Colombia 736 736 736
41 Turkey 729 728 728
42 Sweden 727 721 721
43 Japan 709 709 709
44 Costa Rica 694 701 701
45 Latvia 670 677 677
46 Scotland 665 665 665
47 Mali 662 662 662
48 Gabon 660 660 660
49 Burkina Faso 650 650 650
50 Venezuela 646 646 646
51 Bosnia-Herzegovina 643 642 642
52 Korea Republic 625 625 625
53 Tunisia 613 614 614
54 Finland 605 592 592
55 Hungary 603 613 613
56 Poland 575 556 556
57 Bolivia 573 573 573
57 Canada 573 573 573
59 Benin 534 532 532
60 Lithuania 525 521 521
61 Bahrain 524 524 524
62 Austria 520 523 523
63 Iran 518 507 507
64 Belgium 504 492 492
65 Saudi Arabia 501 509 509
66 FYR Macedonia 491 495 495
67 Morocco 476 477 477
68 Cyprus 472 471 471
69 Panama 468 469 469
70 Peru 467 471 471
70 Togo 467 467 467
72 Mozambique 462 462 462
73 Montenegro 456 456 456
74 Jamaica 451 404 404
75 Guinea 450 459 459
76 Uzbekistan 437 440 440
77 New Zealand 433 400 400
78 Uganda 428 409 453
79 Wales 427 420 420
80 Belarus 426 406 406
81 Trinidad and Tobago 421 400 400
82 El Salvador 407 412 412
83 Oman 403 410 410
84 Korea DPR 399 377 377
85 Haiti 384 349 349
86 South Africa 377 377 377
87 Qatar 374 376 376
88 Iraq 364 364 364
89 Senegal 362 361 361
90 Zambia 358 351 380
91 Syria 348 346 346
92 Iceland 346 346 346
93 Moldova 338 338 338
94 Angola 337 337 337
94 Malawi 337 326 326
96 Cuba 331 218 218
97 China PR 328 340 340
98 Albania 327 336 336
99 Armenia 323 321 321
100 Congo 320 320 320
101 Cape Verde Islands 316 331 331
102 Estonia 303 308 308
103 Grenada 298 144 144
103 Kuwait 298 301 301
105 Kenya 292 316 345
106 Tanzania 291 280 316
107 Thailand 289 296 296
108 Zimbabwe 265 265 265
109 Congo DR 261 271 271
110 Rwanda 255 277 296
111 Singapore 247 260 260
111 Sudan 247 268 268
111 United Arab Emirates 247 248 248
114 Namibia 246 246 246
115 Barbados 238 181 181
116 Azerbaijan 237 237 237
117 Guyana 232 191 191
118 Libya 228 232 232
119 Kazakhstan 226 200 200
120 Faroe Islands 220 222 222
121 Botswana 219 219 219
122 Gambia 218 224 224
123 Antigua and Barbuda 216 176 176
124 Burundi 214 195 264
125 Georgia 203 202 202
125 Guatemala 203 205 205
127 Indonesia 198 206 206
128 Jordan 185 256 256
128 Luxembourg 185 185 185
130 Vietnam 184 203 203
131 Ethiopia 182 179 309
132 Yemen 177 176 176
133 Fiji 174 167 167
134 Nicaragua 165 165 165
135 Equatorial Guinea 163 152 152
135 India 163 158 158
135 Myanmar 163 142 142
138 Swaziland 152 152 152
139 New Caledonia 147 126 126
140 Turkmenistan 139 139 139
141 Hong Kong 137 137 137
141 Sierra Leone 137 145 145
143 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 136 112 112
144 Bermuda 133 138 138
144 Suriname 133 133 133
146 Maldives 132 102 157
147 Chad 130 130 130
147 Lebanon 130 126 126
149 Malta 128 128 128
150 Lesotho 120 120 120
151 Eritrea 115 66 137
152 Liechtenstein 110 110 110
152 Malaysia 110 97 112
154 Sri Lanka 108 97 132
155 Madagascar 105 105 105
156 Kyrgyzstan 103 103 103
157 Vanuatu 101 108 108
158 Liberia 98 98 98
159 St. Kitts and Nevis 94 107 107
160 Chinese Taipei 93 93 93
161 Pakistan 88 78 142
162 Puerto Rico 87 87 87
162 Tajikistan 87 86 86
164 Niger 86 92 92
165 Bangladesh 83 72 136
165 Philippines 83 83 83
167 Somalia 82 64 124
168 Netherlands Antilles 80 80 80
169 Mauritania 70 70 70
170 Mongolia 61 61 61
171 Solomon Islands 60 60 60
172 Cambodia 59 56 56
173 Belize 57 57 57
174 Laos 55 44 44
175 Palestine 54 57 57
176 Nepal 53 52 105
177 Bahamas 47 42 42
178 Comoros 46 46 46
179 Turks and Caicos Islands 45 45 45
180 Seychelles 44 44 44
181 Dominican Republic 41 26 26
182 Mauritius 40 40 40
183 Samoa 38 38 38
184 Cayman Islands 36 36 36
185 Cook Islands 34 34 34
185 Djibouti 34 27 115
185 Guam 34 34 34
188 St. Lucia 32 32 32
189 Macau 31 31 31
190 Guinea-Bissau 29 20 20
191 Tonga 28 28 28
192 Afghanistan 25 19 72
192 British Virgin Islands 25 25 25
192 Brunei Darussalam 25 25 25
195 Tahiti 19 19 19
196 Bhutan 17 17 81
197 Dominica 12 12 12
198 Aruba 11 11 11
199 US Virgin Islands 8 8 8
200 Central African Republic 4 4 4
200 Timor-Leste 4 4 4
202 Andorra 3 3 3
203 American Samoa 0 0 0
203 Anguilla 0 0 0
203 Montserrat 0 0 0
203 Papua New Guinea 0 0 0
203 San Marino 0 0 0

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer (with CodeSoftware.Net since 2013) and Covenant Eyes user. You can find me on Twitter (@FootballRanks) and/or LinkedIn. More info in the Contact / Questions page.